ELA Bowl Season Breakdown

[ELA]

QUICK LANE BOWL

Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-6) vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5)

December 26 @ 5:15 - Detroit, MI - ESPN

Minnesota, left for dead following an embarrassing 55-31 loss to Illinois in early November, remembered how to play defense, and put together dominating wins over both Purdue and Wisconsin over the final 3 weeks of the season, to get P.J. Fleck his first bowl bid as Gophers' coach.  In securing a 9th bowl bid for the conference, they also prevented the Quick Lane Bowl from having to find a replacement team for the 3rd time in four years.  Instead we get a pretty fun Big Ten-ACC showdown, in what will be Paul Johnson's last game as coach.  The problem with Paul Johnson's offense is that as quirky as it still is to see, it's been in place long enough now that continuing to run it with substandard personnel is simply not working.  It has always been much easier to defend with prep time, which might be why he's lost 7 of 10 bowl games; and now that the ACC teams have seen it for years, it seems to be less effective against them as well.  His first 7 seasons at Georgia Tech featured bowl appearances every year, and a top 2 divisional finish in all but one.  His last four years have produced only two bowl appearances, and divisional finishes of 7th, 5th, 3rd and 2nd.  Even that 2nd place finish this year feels hollow in a barred ACC Coastal that produced 7-6 Pitt as divisional champion.  The Gopher defense has not been as stout as in recent years against the run, but a big part of their problem was giving up huge plays on the ground.  Illinois had three touchdown runs of over 70 yards in their upset of Minnesota, which is what mainly led to a change at defensive coordinator.  Over their final three games, after the change, Minnesota allowed only 3.5 ypc against Purdue, Northwestern and Wisconsin, surrendering only two total runs of longer than 15 yards, with the longest being 21.  That needs to remain their focus.  They aren't going to shut down Georgia Tech's triple option, but they need to prevent big plays, force them to march down the field, until they can either make a play on first down to put the Jackets off schedule, or wait for Georgia Tech to get greedy and take advantage.  Because while Georgia Tech isn't going to beat you through the air, at their best they can pick their spots and catch you off guard.  TaQuon Marshall is not doing that, completing only 44% of his passes, which sadly is up from 37% in 2017.  Minnesota's stuff rate is 25.3%, #9 nationally, meaning the percentage of run plays where they hold their opponent to zero or negative yardage.  Kind of a funny stat to see the Gophers among the nation's leaders in, considering they allowed 5.8 ypc in conference play, second worst in the Big Ten.  It does show just how crushing the big ground plays were to their overall success.  If they can limit those, they should be able to put Georgia Tech in situations they aren't comfortable in.  What could hamper Minnesota is the impact of the possible suspensions of six players.  It doesn't seem to rise to the seriousness of the issue that held ten players out of the Holiday Bowl two years ago, and fractured the team, nor have their identities been revealed.  But Fleck has, if nothing else, shown to be the strictest disciplinarian in the league, and more suspensions, even for issues that may not warrant them at a different school, would not be out of character for him at all.  So this may change depending on who that is, but for now I like the Minnesota defense I saw over those final three games to be enough.

MINNESOTA 31, GEORGIA TECH 30

PINSTRIPE BOWL

Wisconsin Badgers (7-5) vs. Miami Hurricanes (7-5)

December 27 @ 5:15 - New York, NY - ESPN

Nothing like leaving sunny Miami for New York City in late December.  At least unlike some of the other cold weather bowls, New York does have tons going on at this time of the year, that if you don't mind the cold, would make for a great trip.  The matchup is familiar too.  For all of the talk of yet another Michigan-Florida game, a series Michigan has dominated; this is the third Wisconsin-Miami bowl game in a decade, and second in a row, with the Badgers winning each of the first two.  The bowl organizers seemed to want to harken back to the classic games played in old Yankee Stadium, back when Army, Navy and Notre Dame would play there with national supremacy on the line.  This game may remind people of the way football was in 1946, with a a pair of offenses that seem adversed to the forward pass.  Wisconsin finished 12th in the Big Ten in passing, on the second fewest attempts; while Miami was 13th in the ACC in passing, with the 3rd fewest attempts.  With Wisconsin it makes a ton of sense.  You have the Doak Walker Award winner running behind a line that had 4 of the 5 members grade out at one of the top 5 at their position nationally.  And the 5th was unanimous 1st Team All-Big Ten.  Their passing game simply never got going, starting with the dismissal of top WR Quintez Cephus, then the lack of progression from Alex Hornibrook, and ultimately Hornibrook's injury, leading to the woefully underprepared Jack Coen.  Hornibrook tried twice in the second half of the season to make a go of it, and was a combined 29-49 (59%) for 140.5 ypg, with 2 touchdowns to go with 5 interceptions.  Really, after his best game of the season at Iowa, and then a very solid game against Nebraska, Hornibrook showed nothing the rest of the year.  He missed three games with an injury, and in the other 4, had QBRs of 2.6, 39.3, 11.1 and 23.4, where 50.0 is average.  Badger fans found out there are worse things than game managers, and Hornibrook showed them, throwing 9 interceptions in those 4 games on 93 passes, or 1 per 10.3 attempts.  Even Rutgers, who led the Big Ten in interception rate was only at 1 per 15.8 attempts.  If you thought you were sick of the turnover chain last year, if Hornibrook doesn't get that fixed, you may be real sick of it by the end of this one.  Mark Richt decided to turn to the higher upside N'Kosi Perry under center, which is why the Canes tried to avoid passing the ball.  They didn't ask Perry to take many risks, and he was able to limit turnovers, but he also didn't provide much, with a measly 5.86 ypa, in the bottom ten of the FBS.  It's possible the Miami offense turned a corner late.  After a four game losing streak, where they averaged only 15.0 ppg, the Canes closed with back to back wins, where they averaged 31.0  ppg.  They did score a pair of special teams touchdowns, and finish +4 in turnover differential over those two games, with Perry only going 6-24 for 52 yards in one of those wins.  The plus is they totally shut down a Pitt rushing attack which had been playing extremely well going into the game.  The recipe is the same for Miami here.  If they can do to Taylor what they did to Hall and Ollison in their last game (holding Pitt to 1.8 ypc), they have a chance.  But in a game where points will be precious, I look at the one offensive weapon in the game who I feel like I can trust to make big plays, and that's Jonathan Taylor.  Plus, I can't forget Miami players all bundled up in 55 degree weather when these teams met in Orlando nine years ago.  The current forecast for the Bronx is 41 and rain that night.

WISCONSIN 24, MIAMI 23

MUSIC CITY BOWL

Purdue Boilermakers (6-6) vs. Auburn Tigers (7-5)

December 28 @ 1:00 - Nashville, TN - ESPN

This one might be the toughest one to get a handle on simply because of the mental state of the two programs right now.  Purdue is "riding high" at 6-6.  After Jeff Brohm got the Boilermakers back into a bowl last year on the strength of an inherited defense, it was expected that the Boilermakers would take a step back.  But after an 0-3 start, that included a loss to Eastern Michigan, with a ranked Boston College team and a trip to Lincoln to follow, it was looking like Purdue's bowl hopes might be dashed before Halloween.  But right there Purdue's offense came to light David Blough played like the guy I thought he could be all along, when I called for the end to that ridiculous quarterback rotation in 2017.  Over the final 10 games Blough had one clunker, against Minnesota, but put up a QBR of 67 or better in every other week, and 79 or better in every week except Michigan State.  The Boilermaker offense scored 28 or more points in 8 of their final 10 games, averaging 393. ppg in those 8.  Granted they scored 23 points TOTAL in those other two, but I'm willing to call those anomalies, particularly because nobody was scoring on Michigan State's defense.  So yes, after that start, and where they've been recently, going 6-6 in a rebuilding year, Purdue fans will take.  Add in the good vibes of Coach Brohm turning down his alma mater, and the program's continuing recruiting resurgence, and you might see the happiest fan base to be in Nashville in a long time.  Contrast that with a 7-5 Auburn team that was playing for a College Football Playoff spot last year.  They even opened this year in the top 10, opened with a win over #6 Washington, and were still ranked as high as #8 in early October.  They lost 4 of their last 7, with 2 of the wins coming against Liberty and Ole Miss, meaning the program has lost half of their games since that upset of Alabama in the Iron Bowl last year.  Part of the problem is that Gus Malzahn's offense is not working with Jarrett Stidham under center.  It was a weird marriage to begin with, but he's an NFL talent, and Malzahn is enough of an offensive wizard that they were supposed to figure it out.  Instead the Tigers averaged only 373 total yards of offense per game, fourth worst in the SEC.  Stidham was no threat with his legs, and without that, a lot of what makes Malzahn's offense work, didn't.  Stidham somehow finished with the second worst QBR in the SEC.  For all those who felt Rich Rodriguez could have made his offense fit Ryan Mallett, maybe the Malzahn-Stidham debacle is evidence of why it wouldn't have worked.  Offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey left for Kansas, in a move that suggests Malzahn encouraged him to move on.  Kenny Dillingham comes over from Memphis to fill the role, but he won't be calling the plays.  That job is back on Malzahn, who filled that role at Auburn during his first three years as head coach at the school, before surrendering those duties in 2016.  Is playcalling the issue?  Maybe part of it, but it probably takes personnel change to have any chance at humming again.  With Stidham already announcing his plans to enter the NFL Draft, you wonder if Malzahn used the Music City Bowl as a chance to get Malik Willis, who might simply be the better fit anyway, some extended reps.

PURDUE 28, AUBURN 27

PEACH BOWL

#7 Michigan Wolverines (10-2) vs. #10 Florida Gators (9-3)

December 29 @ NOON - Atlanta, GA - ESPN

Last time we saw Michigan, their Big Ten and National Title hopes came crashing down in one half in Columbus.  The question here isn't just how good is Michigan actually, but how quickly can they refocus?  Florida is a team on the rebound, pleasantly surprised to find themselves in the New Years Six.  Michigan had been building to this season, and a 10 game winning streak, where the Wolverines had barely even been tested, let alone lost seemed to validate Harbaugh's tenure and silence his critics.  Instead they have to find salvation in an 11-2 season, that will feature several defensive stars playing their last game, and one, Rashan Gary, who won't be.  On paper, Florida is heavily mismatched.  The Gators have to try to figure out how to make their one dimensional offense work against a defense that looked flawless against everyone but Ohio State.  You want to line up and run the ball right at Michigan?  Good luck with that, but with a passing game that averages only 59% completions on 28 attempts per game, that has been Florida's recipe.  But maybe Feleipe Franks is coming around, and with some additional bowl practices, he could be more of a threat to throw the ball than ever.  Remember he saw his first ever NCAA action last year against Michigan, when the Wolverines completely shut down the Gators' offense.  But over his last three games, since an absolute debacle against Missouri, Franks, has been playing his best football.  He completed 68% of his passes, for 230 ypg, with 7 touchdowns and no interceptions.  He accounted for another 3 touchdowns with his feet.  Neither of these defenses are going to let you sustain drives against them, both rank in the top 9 nationally in pass defense.  Both defenses rely on forcing incompletions though, with both susceptible to giving up the big play through the air.  Despite being top 9 overall pass defenses, both rank outside the top 40 in yards per completion.  A little bit of that is chicken-egg though.  Are team trying more deep passes, knowing they aren't going to hit on many of them?  As Michigan games seem to then, it likely comes down to the run game.  And while Florida wants to, Michigan has to.  When the Wolverines get Higdon going, they are nearly unbeatable.  In his career, when he's run for at least 75 yards, Michigan is 14-0.  The Gators are not particularly strong against the run, #63 nationally per play.  The recipe that handled the good, but not great teams (Notre Dame and Ohio State) on their schedule should work again here.  It won't be flashy, and after the Revenge Tour bus crashed, it's tough to say how fired up Michigan will be, but they still have too much talent on defense, even with a letdown, to let Florida end the Wolverines' dominance over them.  Going to go ahead and flip this with Bush, and more importantly, Higdon, now also sitting out.

FLORIDA 27, MICHIGAN 26

Redbox Bowl

Michigan State Spartans (7-5) vs. Oregon Ducks (8-4)

New Years Eve @ 3:00 - San Francisco, CA - FOX

I don't mean to be making all of these 1 point games, believe me, there is a method to my madness, but these just all seem like toss up games to me.  In keeping in line with the theme of this year's Big Ten bowl season, we get another matchup of teams who have seen each other a few times recently.  This is not exactly the vintage matchup from a couple years past, when Oregon beat Michigan State in Eugene in 2014 en route to the College Football Playoff, while the Spartans returned the favor the following year in East Lansing, to earn a College Football Playoff bid of their own.  That said, even midseason if you had said these two teams would be facing each other in the Rose Bowl, or even the Holiday Bowl, as opposed to the Redbox Bowl, people may have believed you.  At 6-3 entering November, Michigan State had a game against Ohio State to possibly control their own Rose Bowl destiny, depending on what Michigan did.  Instead a struggling offense had the wheels totally fall off, losing 2 of their last 3, scoring a TOTAL of 26 points, including scraping one out late against Rutgers.  They might have the best defense in the country, particularly considering how their offense puts them in bad spot time after time.  It seemed like Ohio State started every drive in Michigan State territory, and it wasn't until the offense surrendered a safety, a fumble for a defensive touchdown and a fumble inside their own red zone on three consecutive drives, that Ohio State actually put the game away.  The Spartans scored 24 on Maryland, that is their highwater mark since September.  Somehow they went 4-3 during that 7 game stretch of offensive ineptitude.  So will 21 to 24 points be enough?  That seems to be the max Michigan State is capable of.  For their part, Oregon was one home collapse against Stanford away from being 6-0, with a stretch of three straight wins over ranked teams, including a pair of top 7 (at the time) teams.  But like Michigan State, with all of their goals in front of them, and a very manageable back half of the schedule, the Ducks went 3-3 against a stretch the featured only 1 ranked team, and only 3 bowl eligible teams.  The low point was a 44-15 beat down by Arizona.  The Wildcats shut down Oregon's running game, holding the Pac 12's 4th ranked rushing offense to just 3.7 ypc.  Forced to throw a season high 48 times, Justin Herbert competed only 50% of his passes, for a dismal 3.9 ypa.  Leaning towards coming back, do we see the Justin Herbert that NFL scouts rave about, or the Justin Herbert that seems to actually show up in games.  His completion percentage fell 8% this year to 59.6%, even below his freshman mark of 63.5%, and his yards per attempt dropped by over a yard and a half too.  He's still 2nd in the Pac 12 in Total QBR though, and he doesn't throw interceptions.  Until a pair against Arizona State, he had only thrown 1 since September.  He'll have to produce.  Michigan State has stopped everybody on the ground, so even normally the way to beat them is through the air.  With Justin Layne, their best cornerback all year, skipping the bowl game to leave early for the NFL Draft, and Josh Butler still injured, it's Josiah Scott and a lot of question marks in coverage.  The Spartans pass rush will have to continue to get the pressure with four that they did consistently over the final two months of the season, against a pair of tackles that PFF deemed the best in the nation.  Michigan State, when not facing Alabama, has consistently outperformed expectations in the bowl games under Mark Dantonio.  Maybe they pull another offensive gem out of their butts like they did in the Holiday Bowl last year against Washington State.  But while last year's offense struggled (which was ignored because they won, rather than lost, a number of those low scoring games), this offense has seemed downright inept for a month now.  There has still been total silence as to the health of Brian Lewerke, who played poorly through his injury before shutting it down in November.  After a gem of a debut, the shine wore off Rocky Lombardi in a hurry as well.

OREGON 24, MICHIGAN STATE 23

Holiday Bowl

#22 Northwestern Wildcats (8-5) vs. #17 Utah Utes (9-4)

New Years Day @ 7:00 - San Diego, CA - FS1

What a weird year for anybody but Northwestern, even though this year the Cats took it to an extreme even for them.  On one hand, their last game out they were playing for their first Big Ten Championship in 18 years, and their first Rose Bowl trip in 23.  On the other hand, they now travel across the country to face the #17 team in the country, needing a win to avoid a 6 loss season.  Northwestern proved to be the best of a Big Ten West that was deep, but weak at the top, but they went 0-3 in non conference play, including losses to Duke and Akron, and went 0-3 against teams that finished ranked, none of which were road games.  If Utah's health issues from the Pac 12 Championship Game are still lingering, this game could be really, really, ugly.  Everyone saw that abomination of a Pac 12 Championship Game.  I'm as big a fan of defense as anybody, but that was bad offense too.  Not to sell the defenses short, Washington and Utah do boast the top two in the Pac 12, but without starting quarterback Tyler Huntley or top running back Zack Moss, the Utes didn't stand a chance.  They may not have won, but they probably would have done better than the 188 yards on 3.6 ypp they gathered.  This was a Utah offense that finished 4th in the Pac 12 in scoring with over 30 ppg.  And even without any offense to speak of, that defense held the Huskies out of the end zone.  Washington's lone touchdown came on a tipped ball 66 yard interception return.  Washington's offense as a whole is far less than the sum of its parts, but Northwestern's downright struggled at times.  The Wildcats finished the regular season against the two worst scoring defenses in the Big Ten, Minnesota and Illinois, and scored 24 points on each of them, when they were together, giving up an average of 40 ppg.  In fact Northwestern scored less against each of their final five opponents than their season average allowed.  That doesn't entirely add up, considering they actually found a running game over the second half of the season.  Part of the struggles were due to Clayton Thorson never finding any consistency on the season.  They need good Thorson, the Thorson who found himself near the top of a lot of mock drafts going into the year to have a chance here.  The Wildcats have the 7th worst offense in the FBS in terms of ypp (4.75), and Utah has the 13th best defense by the same metric (4.62).  The only reasons I have this close is (i) Tyler Huntley may or may not return, and Zack Moss is done, so Utah's offense may still not be full go; and (ii) Northwestern went 8-1 in the Big Ten with those offensive issues all season, and just kpet finding a way.  Utah isn't Notre Dame, Ohio State or Michigan; but they aren't Wisconsin, Purdue or Iowa either.  Northwestern's only chance may be with the bend, but don't break.  They've been excelling there all year, getting long drives to end in 3, not 7.  Their red zone TD allowed percentage of 42.9% was one of two, along with Michigan State (33.3%), in the Big Ten to be below 50%.

UTAH 28, NORTHWESTERN 23

Outback Bowl

Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) vs. #18 Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4)

New Years Day @ NOON - Tampa, FL - espn2

While this may not be another familiar Big Ten matchup, it is a familiar Big Ten destination, as Iowa heads to the Outback Bowl for their 3rd time in their last 6 bowl trips, and 6th time in their last 14, dating back to the 2004 version.  They play a Mississippi State team which has never been.  While the SEC agreement with the Outback Bowl stretches back to the 1996 version, for a long time, after the Sugar and Citrus got the first two picks, the next best team from the East went to the Outback, while the West team went to the Cotton.  So the Bulldogs make the SEC West's first trip to the game in five years, and only the third in the last 22, after Auburn in 2010 and LSU in 2014.  The game looks to be a defensive showcase, between the leaders in scoring defense from the Big Ten and the SEC.  The difference is the Iowa defense has been a little bit leakier as of late.  While they led the conference in scoring defense, they were 4th during Big Ten play.  Their advantage comes in the fact that Mississippi State wanting to run the ball, right into the strength of that Hawkeye defense.  The secondary has issues, although they also create a lot of big plays, with a conference best 16 interceptions in Big Ten play.  Maryland (14) was the only other school with more than 11, and their numbers were bolstered by one game against Rutgers.  The Hawkeyes need to prove they can beat a good team though.  They proved they can handle inferior opponents.  Every game Iowa should have won, they did win, and convincingly, with an average margin of victory of 24.0 ppg.  Only Nebraska finished within single digits of them.  But they had a perfect schedule.  They avoided 3 of the 4 bowl teams from the East Division on crossover, and still only went 8-4.  That's because in their 5 conference games against bowl eligible teams, they went 1-4, with the one win coming against 6-6 Minnesota.  Mississippi State would be their best win.  The Bulldogs also have a nasty defensive line.  As far as the starting four goes, I'd put it right there with Clemson as the best in the nation.  It lacks the depth of some of the others, but that top group is as good as anybody.  They will have their work cut out for them against an Iowa offensive line that allowed the fewest sacks in the conference.  Both schools rank in the top 8 nationally in run defense, so that may end up being a wash.  Iowa is also solid against the pass, but Mississippi State is even better there, #4 nationally, allowing just 5.4 ypa.  But Iowa has a guy in Nate Stanley, who they trust.  Mississippi State has Nick Fitzgerald, who was never known for his passing ability, but seems to have regressed from whatever he once was, posting careers lows in yardage, completion percentage, yards per attempt and QBR.  You have to wonder if part of it is a system change making him uncomfortable with how he's supposed to play from the pocket.  He's a guy who took 21 sacks in his first three seasons COMBINED, including two years as a starter, or 1 every 31.5 attempts.  This season alone he took 24, at a rate of once every 10.4 attempts.  Have your sack rate triple is going to hinder a lot of your offense.  The three best offenses that Mississippi State faced this year were Ole Miss, Alabama and Texas A&M.  The Bulldogs shut all of them down.  Each of them had season lows in points against Mississippi State, 3, 24 and 13 respectively.  Iowa's season low is 10, so that doesn't give them much wiggle room.  Probably no other team can say their second best tight end is skipping the bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft, but that's what Noah Fant is doing.  And while T.J. Hockenson had the better year, Fant is still the better talent, and Hockenson sure benefited from the defenses knowing that too.  Those two are Iowa's best offensive weapons, and down one, with the other now drawing all of the defensive attention, I just don't see where Iowa gets enough offense from, against arguably the best defense in the nation.

MISSISSIPPI STATE 24, IOWA 20

Citrus Bowl

#12 Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) vs. #14 Kentucky Wildcats (9-3)

New Years Day @ 1:00 - Orlando, FL - ABC

Considering where the program was just a few years ago, it says something about James Franklin that it's just a 9-3 season and a New Years Day bowl feels a little hollow.  But he went 0-3 against his East Division rivals, making him 3-12 against them in his 5 years in Happy Valley, and his best win?  Iowa at home I guess?  Maybe Appalachian State at home in overtime?  But he did win those, and he continues to avoid bad losses.  When you have Penn State's talent, and you avoid bad losses, you find yourself at about 9-3 every year.  This game serves two very different functions for the program.  It is both a swan song for Trace McSorley, who is the face of the Nittany Lions' resurgence under James Franklin, but also a chance to get ready for 2019, when Penn State probably has a better overall roster, even with some drop off at the most important position.  Penn State only starts 4 seniors aside from McSorley, so this is a chance for Penn State to make a statement that will be remembered when preseason polls enter voters minds next summer.  None of the computer metrics like Kentucky, they win ugly, but for most of the season, they were winning.  Kentucky showed patience with Mark Stoops, staying with him after his first three seasons in Lexington failed to produce a single bowl game, or even a .500 record.  They were a combined 4-20 in SEC games over those three years.  But he rewarded their patience with a pair of bowl games, and then a pair of wins over ranked teams in September this catapulted the program as high as #11 in the nation going into a massive home showdown with #6 Georgia, with a likely SEC Championship on the line.  The Bulldogs didn't just win that game, they beat them two weeks in a row, as the Wildcats followed that with a dormant showing in a loss at Tennessee.  So Kentucky remains one of three programs to be in the SEC since the inception of the Championship Game who have not participated, but they do reach the Citrus Bowl.  It's their first New Years Day bowl game since the 1999 Outback Bowl with Tim Couch, and probably their most marquee bowl game since Bear Bryant to them to the Orange, Sugar and Cotton Bowls in consecutive years from 1949-1951.  The Wildcats have been doing it with defense, led by one elite talent on each side of the ball.  Offensively it's tailback Benny Snell Jr., who was knocked out of Kentucky's bowl loss last year, making his second straight All-SEC First team, and adding 3rd team AP All-American honors.  Defensively, it's linebacker Josh Allen, who was set to go to FCS Monmouth, until his high school coach called in a favor, and got an additional evaluation from Kentucky.  Allen was a consensus All-American, and won the Bednarik, Lott and Bronco Nagurski Trophies, in addition to being named SEC Defensive Player of the Year.  He's the best defensive player at Kentucky since Art Still, who was from Allen's home state of New Jersey.  Penn State's offense depends on big days from the running backs, as the passing game simply hasn't been there, due to a disappointing season out of the receivers.  Against a Kentucky pass defense that ranks in the top 15 nationally, it seems unlikely that they find their footing.  But at least the Nittany Lions have options.  To stop Kentucky's offense the plan, if not the execution, is easy, stop Snell.  The Wildcats averaged on 164.8 passing ypg, on only 23.4 attempts, both SEC lows.  The Penn State defense is allowing only 4.0 ypc on the ground, and while Terry Wilson has some mobility, the better teams Kentucky faced kept him in the pocket.  In their 3 losses, Wilson averaged 3.3 ypg.  Not per carry, per GAME.  In their 9 wins, he averaged 56.4.  A big loss for Kentucky is linebacker Jordon Jones, who is ineligible for the game, and might be Kentucky's second best defender.  It's bit easier to plan around Allen when the guy playing opposite him is a true freshman, as it appears it will be.

PENN STATE 26, KENTUCKY 24

[Benthere2]

wow 4 - 1 point wins  

[ELA]

Ha, didn't even notice that.  Doing them 1 at a time.

[bayareabadger]

Something is off with Tech losing 7 of 10 bowl games. He’s 5-7 overall, 3-5 at Tech and win three of the last four. 

[Geolion91]

I hope Penn State can beat Kentucky by more than 1 point.

[bamajoe]

If you only beat Kentucky by 1 point you should give up football. In September they were a very good football team. In November they got blown out by Tennessee. They regressed as the season wore on and now they are the typical Kentucky team. Penn wins by at least 20.year 

[Cincydawg]

Kentucky to me looks like a pretty solid team, probably not top 15 or so, but 20-25.  I actually predicted the loss to Tennessee because of the emotional expense of the game preceding that.  They were almost assured of playing flat, and they did.

[Hawkinole]

As for Iowa/Miss. St. I know the betting line takes Miss. St. as does ELA, I can't overlook Miss. St.'s average 4 points per game when facing top-25 defenses. Iowa faced one Top-25 "points scored defense," and scored 24-points in a loss. The fewest points Iowa scored was 10. 

The only offensive strength of Miss. St. is rushing, and Iowa's rushing defense is 8th. 

It is a bowl game, so who knows. It could go either way but I think the betting lines, are wrong and I think Iowa should win. Well, I also hope Iowa will win, and that colors my opinion.