VOTE - Who would win the 1995 CFP?

[OrangeAfroMan]

1995 "What if" College Football Playoff. 
It's early December of 1995 - no bowls played, the regular season over. 
Who do you predict wins the playoff?
1 Nebraska vs 4 Ohio St/Tennessee
2 Florida vs 3 Northwestern
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***This is a fun, unique situation - a literal tie for 4th place.  Who would have been included?  Excluded?  Would either put up a fight vs the Huskers?  
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#1 Nebraska, 11-0, Big 8 Champions
1st in scoring offense
4th in scoring defense
24th in strength of schedule
Fresh off their NC in 1994, Nebraska dominated their 11 game schedule, which included three top 10 opponents.  The Huskers beat #8 KSU by 24, at #7 CU by 23, and at #10 KU by 38, all in a period of 4 weeks.  The offense couldn't be stopped, scoring over 40 points nine times, and at least 35 scored in every contest.
QB Frazier orchestrated an option offense averaging 550+ ypg, including 400 on the ground.  He was an efficient passer, with a great (for an option QB) 17/4 TD-INT ratio.  I-back Green averaged 7.7 ypc, co-starter? Phillips averaged 7.7, backup Childs averaged 7.8.  Frazier and FB Makovicka combined to average 6 ypc.  No one stopped them.  No one could.
Teams couldn't run on Nebraska and often didn't because they were behind most of the time.  The Blackshirts D allowed 78 yards rushing per game.  The pass D kept teams under 50% comp rate and picked off 20 passes.  
Special teams were solid, with very good punt returning and accurate FG kicking being the strengths.
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#2 Florida, 12-0, SEC Champions
4th in scoring offense
31st in scoring defense
16th in strength of schedule
The Gators' offense was also record-breaking, helping Florida to double-digit wins over all five ranked opponents it faced.  Spurrier and Co. hung 62 on #8 Tennessee and 49 at #7 Auburn.  Wins at #21 LSU, #6 FSU, and #23 Arkansas in the SECCG propelled the Gators to their #2 ranking.
The Fun 'n Gun led by QB Wuerffel had most games won by halftime.  His 178 pass rating was the best ever.  The Gators averaged 360 yards passing and 4 TD per game.  The running game was split by Jackson and Williams, both averaging over 6.4 ypc.  Fred Taylor was 3rd string.  Wuerffel threw to a pair of 1,000 yard WR in Hilliard and Doering - with 32 TDs among just those two.  
The defense was strong vs the pass - allowing under 50% of passes to be completed.  Safety Wright was a big-hitter and CB Weary a good cover CB.  The run D wasn't great, but with Florida ahead so often, teams weren't able to expose it.
Special teams weren't a strength, despite good KR from Reidel Anthony.  Florida hit only 50% of its FG and punting under 39 yards per.
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#3 Northwestern, 10-1, Big 10 Champions
46th in scoring offense
7th in scoring defense
5th in strength of schedule
The Cinderella story of them all, the Wildcats began the year unranked.  A season-opening win at #9 ND changed that for a week, before they fell to Miami of Ohio at home.  N'Western faced 3 more ranked foes the rest of the season, beating them all and winding up 8-0 in league play.  Wins at #7 Michigan by 6, blowing out #24 Wisconsin, and beating #12 Penn State got the Wildcats to a #3 ranking.
N'Western's offense was...plain.  Vanilla.  Mediocre.  But just good enough.  QB Schnur didn't pass it very well, but got the ball into WR Bates' hands enough times on big plays.  Workhorse RB Autry didn't sport great yards-per-carry numbers, but when the Wildcats needed a yard, he'd get two.  In nearly 400 carries, he'd get nearly 1800 yards and 17 TDs as the focal point.  
The defense wasn't exactly a shutdown unit, either, except for giving up points.  The run defense was good/not grat, the pass defense wasn't anything to brag about, but LB Fitzgerald and crew would seem to step up in 3rd and short or pick off a key pass late to win games.
WR Musso was a great punt returner and K Sam Valenzisi only missed 1 FG all year before getting hurt, so a 50% kicker would play in the playoff.
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TIE
#4 Tennessee, 10-1
#4 Ohio State, 11-1
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#4 Tennessee
10th scoring offense
26th scoring defense
17th strength of schedule
The Vols played three ranked teams this year, losing at #4 Florida 62-37, but winning at #18 Arkansas by 18 and at #11 Alabama by 27.  Oddly, the Vols closed out the regular season with very close wins over lowly Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Tennessee boasts a prolific offense, capable of both running and passing the ball.  QB Manning had a strong year, with 22 TD to only 4 INT.  RB Graham had 1400+ yards and 12 TD.  Manning's main threat was WR Kent, with over 1,000 yards receiving.  
The defense was good, but not overwhelming vs the run or pass.  
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#4 Ohio State
7th scoring offense
10th scoring defense
8th strength of schedule
The Buckeyes beat the first six ranked opponents they faced - #22 BC, #18 Washington, #15 ND, at #12 Penn State, at #21 Wisconsin, and #25 Iowa.  Only one of those was by one score.  But in the season finale, OSU lost to rival #18 Michigan in Ann Arbor.
This OSU offense could pass and run the ball well.  QB Hoying had over 3200 yds and 29 TD with a great rating.  Heisman-winner RB George carried the ball for 1900+ yards and 24 TD.  WR Glenn's 1400 yards and 17 TD led all receiving threats.  TE Dudley also caused matchup problems.
The defense picked off 24 passes and was strong overall.  The rush defense, however, was the weakness of the team, allowing nearly 150 yards per game.  
The special teams weren't especially strong, aside from the kick returning of CB Springs.
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So who would/should be the 4 seed?  Would Nebraska drill either?  Would N'Western keep pace with the Gators?  Who wins it all???

[MarqHusker]

Yes, Nebraska would defeat a medley of Vols and Bucks.

I got to attend 10 of the 12 Nebraska games that season.  It was quite a spectacle.  I'd say the only stress during that regular season is when Mackovicka fumbled on the opening drive inside the Wazzu 20.  Some guy with a long name then ripped off a long td run.  The only moment that regular season when Nebraska trailed. Ryan Leaf made a special teams tackle I recall. 

No team entered the 4th quarter within 20 points of Nebraska.  Wazzu managed to get an onside and cut the final to 35 -21.  Games were over at half.  2 first snap TDs. Several 28+ pt quarters.  Absurd I-back depth.  Zero sacks allowed.  If I were to rank their worst overall game it was the 41-3 road win over top 10 Kansas. I believe they were 10-2 ATS.

[ELA]

Same title game, same result.  I think this is the first time I've said that.

As for #4, I think they would take Tennessee, better loss and whatnot . S&P+ prefers OSU by about 3 points over the Vols.

[SFBadger96]

I remember that OSU team as being really, really good, then blowing it against Michigan.

And they still weren't likely to beat Nebraska--though they might have pushed the Huskers a little for a couple of quarters.

Florida doesn't have much trouble with Northwestern, who were just happy to be there.

Nebraska unless something crazy happened (which often seems to, but probably not here).

[Brutus Buckeye]

OSU over Northwestern in the game that never was.

[Hoss]

I would note that PR defense was also a strength, with 5 returns for 12 yards allowed on the season.  That was an NCAA record for a while, but probably broken by Alabama since. (Nebraska had 552 PR yards for the season) 

0 sacks allowed...on a whopping 228 attempts. :shrug:

[847badgerfan]

Nebraska destroys OSU
Florida destroys NU


Nebraska destroys Florida

[MarqHusker]

Jesse Kosch was the punter.  He was a storm chaser and weather enthusiast.   Jesse and his Dad, a DB in the early 70s, they have 5 mnc rings.  I think he runs a Nebraska merch.store in Colorado now.

[OrangeAfroMan]

The Tennessee/Ohio State argument is a fun one.  Tennessee's loss was in September and OSU's was in the finale.  OSU's loss was close, Tennessee got lambasted.  
They played in the Citrus Bowl on a wet day, and UT beat OSU 20-14.  But that didn't happen in this exercise.  Would have been fun as a play-in game or something.  
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Uh oh, another playoff idea.....the top 5 get in, technically, but 4 plays 5 as a play-in game, sort of like MLB.  Makes the 4 over 1 upset even less likely.  

[ELA]

The Tennessee/Ohio State argument is a fun one.  Tennessee's loss was in September and OSU's was in the finale.  OSU's loss was close, Tennessee got lambasted.  
They played in the Citrus Bowl on a wet day, and UT beat OSU 20-14.  But that didn't happen in this exercise.  Would have been fun as a play-in game or something.  
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Uh oh, another playoff idea.....the top 5 get in, technically, but 4 plays 5 as a play-in game, sort of like MLB.  Makes the 4 over 1 upset even less likely.  

Does it?
Or does it help ensure that #1 is actually playing the better possible team.  Say a year like this, where Oklahoma has the best resume argument, but perhaps Georgia or Ohio State was "better".  It may lead to #1 having to face a better team, rather than a team with a better resume.

[OrangeAfroMan]

Nebraska destroys OSU
Florida destroys NU


Nebraska destroys Florida

Probably this.
Although, probability-wise, if OSU is the 4th best team and if Florida really is the 2nd-best team, I doubt Nebraska curb-stomps both of them.  
If Florida played N'Western, it would get ugly.  
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If Biakabutuka went for 300+ vs OSU, what would the Huskers do?  
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I need to correct myself from the '94 playoff post about Spurrier's pass protection.  He was more stubborn than I realized - he didn't change it after the Nebraska debacle, and didn't even change it after losing @ FSU in '96 like I said before.  I just re-watched the 1996 SECCG and despite gouging their defense for 45 points, Alabama had 5-6 instant sacks on Wuerffel.  And I recalled a quote from LT Zach Pillar, specifying they change their pass pro more in the leadup to the rematch with FSU in the Sugar Bowl that year than in his 4 years previous.  
So it took Nebaska's beatdown, FSU's limiting the offense and winning, and Alabama getting a half-dozen freebee sacks before he was willing to change things.
That, above the running up the score stuff or ruthless barb quotes, showed his arrogance.  

[OrangeAfroMan]

Does it?
Or does it help ensure that #1 is actually playing the better possible team.  Say a year like this, where Oklahoma has the best resume argument, but perhaps Georgia or Ohio State was "better".  It may lead to #1 having to face a better team, rather than a team with a better resume.

That "better" team just played an elimination game the week before.  I'd rather be rested and have more recent game film on my opponent.

[ELA]

That "better" team just played an elimination game the week before.  I'd rather be rested and have more recent game film on my opponent.

You also never said when it would be.  I don't think they are playing that game on Christmas.  I assumed it would be the week after the CCG, so you still have 2 weeks in between.

[Entropy]

Someone didn't vote for UNL in 1995....????