ELA 2019 Countdown

[ELA]

102. Rutgers Scarlet Knights

#14 in Big Ten

Even the most fervent backers of the Big Ten’s addition of Rutgers, who might just be Jim Delany’s immediate family, at least felt that if given time, Big Ten membership would life the school’s football profile, even if the transition was rough.  Instead, things seem to be going in the opposite direction.  In Year 5 in the Big Ten, Year 3 of the Chris Ash era, the Scarlet Knights completed their second winless Big Ten season in three years, and their lone bowl trip remains their first year in the conference, an 8-5 season in 2014.  Possibly even sadder is that there will be a Year 4 for Chris Ash, despite absolutely zero positive signs, a 3-24 conference record, and continued offseason issues.  Just to make things better, the team’s best player, and offensive captain, guard Jonah Jackson, entered the transfer portal, one of six Rutgers players to do so.  The graduation of Giovanni Rescigno means the quarterback controversy is over, but the fact that Art Sitkowski remains standing may not be ideal.  He was a big time recruit, who flipped from Miami to Rutgers, thrown into the fire as a true freshman on a bad offense.  Lumps were to be expected, but his struggles went beyond normal freshman issues.  He completed just 49% of his passes with an absurd 4 touchdowns to 18 interceptions, a major reason the Scarlet Knights had more turnovers than any team in the nation, and 3 more interceptions than any other team, and absurd 1.83 per game.  Boston College transfer Johnny Langan is probably the only realistic other option.  Raheem Blackshear is a talented back, but he’s got no room to work with.  Rutgers had a bottom 30 run blocking offensive line, and that was before they lost a pair of NFL talents in the aforementioned Jackson, and the graduation of left tackle Tariq Cole.  They were a solid pass blocking group, which, despite the lack of receiving options, makes the quarterback troubles more concerning.  Aside from the offensive line transition, the offense does return most of their starters.  The defense, which held up relatively well, suffered a ton of losses.  The per play stats for the defense slotted Rutgers in the middle, to slightly above.  If they could have created more big plays, they may have even been good enough to help prop up their dismal offense, but they finished at the bottom in turnovers created and sacks.  They allowed opponents to convert 49% of their third downs, also worst in the Big Ten.  So while they were an underrated unit overall, they struggled to come up with the big play when they needed it.  Their special teams are in fantastic shape, returning a pair of all-Big Ten specialists in kicker Justin Davidovicz, who made 82% of his field goals, including a 52 yarder, which was the third longest on the season by a Big Ten kicker, and the longest in the history of High Point Stadium.  Adam Korsak averaged 42.7 ypp, and hit a 79 yarder, which was the Big Ten’s longest in 2018.  He’ll likely get plenty of opportunities to beat that in 2019.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Artur Sitkowski, Sophomore
RB	Raheem Blackshear, Junior
K	Justin Davidovicz, Junior
	.
DE	Elorm Lumor, Junior
CB	Damon Hayes, Senior
P	Adam Korsak, Junior

[FearlessF]

couldn't you keep the B1G above #100?

Rutgers at 99 wouldn't be too much of a stretch

[Brutus Buckeye]

You can't ask a man to compromise the integrity of his preseason rankings.

[FearlessF]

I can ask.  I don't expect him to do it, but I can ask.

Should have thrown an SEC team in at 101

[847badgerfan]

I can ask.  I don't expect him to do it, but I can ask.

Should have thrown an SEC team in at 101

Nope. They comprise #'s 1-14 in these rankings.

[ELA]

101. Navy Midshipmen

#9 in American

Ever since Paul Johnson got the Naval football program back on its feet in his second season, in 2003, you could pencil the Midshipmen in for 8 wins and a bowl.  Since 2003, Navy had only missed a bowl once, and only come up short of 8 wins one other time.  That time was 2017, after going 20-7, including 14-2 in the American, over the previous two seasons.  So was that 7-6 2017 a sign of things to come?  In retrospect, it sure looks like it, as Navy stumbled all the way to 3-10, their worst season since going 2-10 in Johnson’s first year, in 2002.  Grading the service academies is always tough, because while the rest of college football has moved away from earning your stripes, they have not.  They always field senior laden starting lineups, so their returning production is always deceptively low, even in good times.  Army and Air Force are expected to be ok this year, Army even appearing in some early top 25s, and they rank #48 and #75 in returning production, so there is a military academy asterisk there.  But Navy is #126.  Somehow Navy only returned 4 offensive starters last year, and only have 3 going into next year.  It seems likely that Malcolm Perry, who was moved from slot back to quarterback late in 2017, and started there in 2018, before going back to slot back, will move back to quarterback as a senior in 2019.  Follow that?  Perry is easily Navy’s most talented player, and Ken Niumatalolo desperately wanted him at quarterback, but his arm is so bad, it couldn’t even get by for a triple-option quarterback.  In his two games at quarterback in 2017, he threw 2 passes...1 was intercepted.  Last year, before getting moved back to slot back, he completed just 36% of his passes.  But Garret Lewis and Zach Abey both graduated, so it’s either Perry or Dalen Morris.  Moving Perry back to quarterback does leave a massive hole among the backs though, as Anthony Gargiulo also graduated, leaving the Midshipmen without their three top slot backs.  Nelson Smith is a good enough fullback, but the slot back position is a major concern.  Next is line might be C.J. Williams, who was 8th on the team in rushing a year ago, but did average 8.3 ypc with his 2 touches per game.  The defense will swing on whether they can get better up the middle.  In Nizaire Cromarite and Elan Nash, Navy has a pair of rush linebackers in their 3-4 scheme, who should be better at getting to the quarterback than they were a year ago, but the line and the inside linebackers are a big concern carrying over from a year ago when they gave up 5.1 ypc, second worst in the American.  And all AAC defensive statistics for futility need to be adjusted down one, as though UConn’s historically horrible defense didn’t exist, because for all metrics, second worst is really the worst anyone else could do.  Niumatalolo has done enough to earn a shot to fix this, but Navy is not trending in the right direction, and it’s right at a time when Army is on the upswing.  He has to prove he can compete in a league which doesn’t get the credit it deserves, after feasting on his Independent schedule for his first seven years, against opponents that weren’t used to the difficulties Navy’s attack presented.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Malcolm Perry, Senior
FB	Nelson Smith, Junior
C	Ford Higgins, Senior
	.
LB	Nizaire Cromartie, Senior
LB	Elan Nash, Senior
S	Jacob Springer, Junior

[ELA]

Nope. They comprise #'s 1-14 in these rankings.

While looking at my rankings, maybe not the SEC specifically, but Power 5s in general are high.  I think I am a little too down across the board on the mid majors, compared to usual.  Only 2 Power 5s outside the top 100.  Based on the Massey composite, last year there were four (Arkansas, Louisville, Oregon State, Rutgers), and then Illinois (#100) and North Carolina (#99) just missed.  Spoiler alert, #99 and #98 are also mid majors.  So I have 2 Power 5 schools outside my top 98, compared to the six that finished there last year.

[Brutus Buckeye]

So in breaking down ELA's top 100, there will be league-wide participation from the SEC, ACC, and Pac 12. The Big Ten and Big XII have each already been dinged, but only once. 

As for the mid-majors making such a lofty appearance? 

8/12 AAC
5/12 Mac
6/10 Sunbelt
8/12 MWC
5/6 FBS Independents
8/14 C USA

[ELA]

Thursday and Friday

100. UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns

#6 in Sun Belt

Outside of maybe Wisconsin, unless/until Nebraska returns to glory, I’m not sure any school was more happy with their division split than UL Lafayette with the Sun Belt putting Appalachian State, Troy, and hell, even Georgia Southern, in the opposite division.  The Ragin Cajuns took advantage right away, and went 7-7 overall, 5-3 in the Sun Belt (tied for fourth overall), and wound up playing for a conference championship.  They couldn’t pull it out, but it was a one score game until Appalachian State kicked a field goal with 2 minutes to play.  That might continue to be the recipe, be just good enough, and hope you can win one game the first Saturday in December, and you’ve got yourself a conference title.  Billy Napier was hired as head coach after a year of working under Todd Graham, and whatever he did to the offense, it worked.  The Cajuns were 2nd in the SUn Belt in scoring and averaged 6.6 ypp, best in the conference.  They featured a pair of all-conference running backs, three all-conference linemen, and an all-conference receiver.  They craziest part is that they all return, and now with their first full offseason in Napier, and offensive coordinator Ron Roberts’ offense.  So why sixth in the Sun Belt?  The quarterback position is a major question mark.  After Jordan Davis abruptly left the team, Troy Nunez filled in admirably.  But now he has graduated, and the job falls to junior Levi Lewis, who was the presumed starter a year ago after Davis left, but underwhelmed, and found himself in a bit of a rotation, but as the clear #2 guy, attempting 59 passes to Nunez’s 287.  The job was Lewis’ a year ago, and he couldn’t hold it, but there is less clear competition this time, so it seems Lewis would have to do a lot to lose it again.  Just cutting down on the number of sacks would probably be the biggest area of improvement at the position.  There’s no excuse to give up the third most sacks in the conference, when you have three all-conference linemen, and your pass play rate is squarely average.  The defense took a big leap under first year coordinator Ron Roberts, who left an FCS head coaching job at Southeastern Louisiana to take over the Cajun defense, his first FBS experience of any kind, player or coach.  While the defense was far from good, it was merely, not so good, as compared to the complete and total trainwreck he took over from 2017, when they gave up 40 ppg, and finished in the bottom five nationally in total defense.  The front looks like it should actually be better, but the secondary, which graduated three players from a unit that gave up 9 yards per attempt, and surrendered 22 passing touchdowns to 8 interceptions, could be an even bigger problem than it was in 2018.  If the quarterback position gets figured out, this ranking has the potential to be way too low, because Louisiana averaged 31.9 ppg last year, and they are a quarterback away from pushing that much closer to 40.  Three of their seven wins came in games where they gave up 38 or more points, but they may find a way to win the four games they lost last year when giving up between 26 and 30.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Elijah Mitchell, Junior
WR	Ja'Marcus Bradley, Senior
G	Kevin Dotson, Senior
	.
DE	Zi'Yon Hill, Sophomore
DE	Bennie Higgins, Senior
LB	Jacques Boudreaux, Senior

99. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders

#8 in Conference USA

2018 seemed prime for Middle Tennessee State to make a run at their first Conference USA championship, their first conference championship of any kind since they won the Sun Belt in 2006, and by nature of having a conference championship game now, their first outright conference title since winning the (then) 1AA Ohio Valley Conference in 1992.  They came so, so close, going 7-1 in conference play, and leading UAB late in the conference title game, a game against the same opponent, on the same field, that they beat 27-3 a week prior.  But the Blazers got their revenge with a game winning field goal with 2:32 to go, for the 27-25 win when Brent Stockstill’s 4th down pass from midfield fell incomplete with 1:21 to play.  With 11 senior starters graduating, 2019 was always looking to be a rebuilding year, so for 2018 to be the program’s best as a member of Conference USA at least made a rebuilding year a little more palatable.  The Blue Raiders did lose all 5 “non-conference” FBS games, which includes the Conference USA championship games, but considering it was 3 SEC road games, that UAB game, and a bowl game against a very good Appalachian State team, that’s forgivable, particularly playing a top 15 Kentucky team close in November.  If you thought they learned their lesson, well this year it’s Michigan, Iowa and Duke on the schedule.  Maybe that prepared them better for their divisional title run?  Losing Brent Stockstill might be as large a loss as any team suffers this offseason, the school’s all time leading passer, and the son of the head coach.  He wasn’t just a guy who put up big numbers in a pass happy offense, he finished third in the nation with a 70.3% completion rate.  Whoever replaces him, will probably lean more heavily on standout senior Ty Lee, who is a lock to finish no worst as the second leading receiver in school history, assuming he stays healthy, and only needs 713 yards to pass Richie James for #1.  He’s gone for at least 880 in each of the past two years.  His numbers dropped a bit from 2017 to 2018, as the aforementioned James graduated, and Lee took the primary focus of the defense, with a senior quarterback smart enough to realize that.  But a new kid under center might be looking at #8 all day.  Or maybe they can lean a little more on a running game that has been non-existent for a few years now.  The Blue Raiders returned all three members of a running back rotation that wasn’t very good in 2017, but redshirt freshman Chaton Mobley by passed them all to become a true #1 back.  He only played sparingly in the first 2/3 of the season, running for 128 yards through September and October, but it was a 198 yards day against Western Kentucky that shot him up the depth chart, averaging 80.8 ypg from then out.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Chaton Mobley, Sophomore
WR	Ty Lee, Senior
C	Josh Fannin, Senior
	.
DT	Malik Manciel, Senior
LB	Khalil Brooks, Senior
S	Reed Blankenship, Junior

[Cincydawg]

Always interesting.  

[ELA]

98. Wyoming Cowboys

#8 in Mountain West

Wyoming fans have to be a little worried, now that Kansas State has hired Chris Klieman, who succeeded Craig Bohl at North Dakota State and went 69-6, with five FCS titles in five years.  DO they have the architect of the best program in the FCS, or was it the guy underneath him?  Are they Michigan State hiring John L. Smith, leaving Bobby Petrino at Louisville; or Colorado hiring Dan Hawkins, and leaving Chris Petersen at Boise State?  Not that Craig Bohl has been bad, but in five years his best year was 8-5, with a Potato Bowl win, when he had the best player in Wyoming program history playing quarterback for him.  Without Josh Allen, the Wyoming passing attack was a complete mess.  Redshirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal began the year as the starter, and played probably way too long, with his 48.8% completion rate and 5.3 ypa.  But the Cowboys were sort of backed into a corner with the only other options being senior Nick Smith and true freshman Sean Chambers.  They knew what they had in Smith, and there was no sense using a senior in a rebuilding season.  But thanks to the new NCAA redshirting rule, they did give Chambers some run in October.  The problem was, he actually showed some promise, completing 60% of his passes, for 10.6 ypa.  Plus he was a threat with his feet, running the ball actually more than twice as often as he threw it, and averaging 5.6 ypc.  He created a problem though, as how do you send your best quarterback back to the bench, and sell your fan base on it, just in the name of preserving his redshirt?  In a cruel way fate gave Bohl some help, and Chambers wound up breaking his leg against Air Force, ending his season...in his fourth game, thus preserving his redshirt.  Assuming he’s fully healthy going into 2019, still technically as a redshirt freshman, there’s no reason to think he won’t be the starter, which leads to I believe only the second time ever I’ve listed a freshman as a key player in these write ups, going back to 2005.  And before you ask, I don’t remember the other, I just vaguely recall doing it, and it specifically comes to mind.  But the redshirt rule, and the weird circumstance of the team’s best quarterback still qualifying means it’s now uniquely possible.  I don’t want to get ahead of myself as though he’s some savior.  He threw 25 passes.  The Cowboys still finished last in the Mountain West in passing at 131.3 ypg, behind a triple option team, on 5.7 ypa.  If that offense can get the ball anywhere close, Wyoming does have the best kicker in the conference to finish things off.  Cooper Rothe won Mountain West Special Team Player of the Year, missing only one of his 17 field goal attempts, ranking first in the nation at 94.1%, was perfect on PATs, with range beyond 50 yards.  Kicking in Cheyenne sounds nice.  Wyoming wasted a very good defense last year, which finished second, behind Fresno State, in the Mountain West in total defense, scoring defense and passing defense.  Tyler Hall, who played a linebacker/defensive back hybrid position last year, may move to more of a safety this year, with 3/4 of the secondary graduated.  The Cowboys did close on a 4 game winning streak, after a 2-6 start, so maybe some positive vibes going into 2019?

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Sean Chambers, Freshman
WR	Austin Conway, Senior
K	Cooper Rothe, Senior
	.
LB	Logan Wilson, Senior
CB	Antonio Hull, Senior
S	Tyler Hall, Senior

97. Southern Miss Golden Eagles

#7 in Conference USA

In my formative years of development as a college football fan, Southern Miss fancied themselves the marquee mid-major program, with the same “Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime” motto used by Jeff Bower that Bobby Bowden used to build Florida State.  Let’s just say Southern Miss, as good as they got, plateaued a little south of that, with a couple of top 20 finishes in the late 90s.  While they’ve recovered from rock bottom post-Larry Fedora, going 4-32 from 2012-2014, they haven’t won, or even played for a conference title since 2011.  They’ve almost become irrelevant.  The only noteworthy thing they accomplished this offseason is stage a very public internal battle over the attempted hire of Art Briles, without the approval of administration.  On the field, while this doesn’t look like a Conference USA title team, it has a chance to be perhaps the school’s best team since 2011.  There is certainly more top end talent than has been in the program since then, but depth due to a revolving door of players has been an issue.  The upside there is that at the time of this writing, the Eagles have nobody entered into the transfer portal, and are actually looking to pick up defensive end Torrence Brown from Penn State.  The passing game looks to be dynamic if Jack Abraham, who missed two different stints with injuries last year can stay healthy.  He’s got as good a receiver duo as there is in the conference with Quez Watkins and Tim Jones, who lead a deep group that returns their top 5 from a year ago.  The loss of Jay’Shawn Washington at tight end is an underrated loss.  Will they be able to run the ball at all, a year after mustering just 112.6 ypg on 3.1 ypc, with just 11 rushing touchdowns, second worst in Conference USA across the board.  Head coach Jay Hopson has to hope his youth movement there pays off in 2019, with all five starting offensive linemen returning, three of them, the entire left side plus center Arvin Fletcher, returning for their third seasons as starters.  They were blocking for Trivensky Mosley and Steven Anderson, who were thrown to the wolves as a true freshman and redshirt freshman respectively.  It’s not as though running the ball has been an ongoing issue, so the fix could be there.  But can the defense possibly be as good as it was last year, when it led Conference USA in both rushing and passing yards allowed per game.  The pass defense was particularly stingy, surrendering just 5.8 ypa with a defensive pass efficiency of 106.3, both top 10 nationally.  All of the stats suggest that this should have been a much better team last year, so you look for things like penalties, turnovers and record in close games for reasons why a record may flip to be more in line with what you would expect, but nothing is out of whack there for Southern Miss.  They are in the middle of the pack for turnover margin and penalties, and they were 2-3 in one score games, so right about what you would expect.  The infighting within the program does suggest something might be amiss, so while the Eagles turning it around and challenging for the division title would be far from a shock, based on the talent on the roster, none of the factors that would indicate that to be likely are present here.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Quez Watkins, Junior
WR	Tim Jones, Junior
C	Arvin Fletcher, Junior
	.
DE	Jacques Turner, Junior
LB	Racheem Boothe, Junior
S	Ky'el Hemby, Junior

[ELA]

96. Toledo Rockets

#5 in MAC

While it may seem really low to have Toledo this far down in the rankings, it’s more a reflection on where I think the MAC is right now than where I have Toledo, which is about similarly positioned within the conference as last year.  The main issue with the offense is a shift from trying to keep everybody happy, to figuring out who you throw the ball to.  The Rockets had the best receiving group in the MAC last year, with three all-conference performers, paired with an all-conference tight end in Reggie Gilliam.  Cody Thompson and Jon’Vea Johnson graduated, and Diontae Johnson, who was also the MAC special teams player of the year, after leading the conference in punt return yardage, and finishing second in kick return yardage.  To pile on, Art Thompkins, who was part of a three man stable of running backs, but was the best pass catcher of the three, transferred to Connecticut.  That means 144 receptions, 2,207 receiving yards, and 27 receiving touchdowns walked out the door.  A senior career backup, the #2 running back, and a backup tight end are the three leading returning players in terms of receiving yards.  You would think Mitchell Guadagni would get his job back after a series of injuries, including a season ending broken collarbone, but Jason Candle seems enamored with Eli Peters for some reason, playing Peters in every game but one last year.  He must see something in practice, because Guadagni is a dual threat guy, while Peters is a pure passer...with worse passing numbers.  Peters did win 4 of 5 down the stretch to get the Rockets into a bowl last year, after a 3-4 start under Guadagni, so maybe there is something there, but I tend to think it’s related to other factors.  Toledo had a major edge in special teams against every team they played last year, which figures to take a hit this year.  Not just the above mentioned departure of the conference’s best returner in Diontae Johnson, but the graduation of Jameson Vest.  The Rockets were near the top of the league in kick and punt coverage, and made 75% of their field goals.  The defense wasn’t special, but they got off the field when they needed to, leading the conference in third down defense, second in fourth down defense.  But with the presumed downtick on offense, the defense cannot afford to give up over 430 yards per game again.  The graduation of 6 senior starters does not suggest there will be improvement there.  At least the losses are about as evenly spread out as you can get, two from each level, and one inside and one outside guy on both the line and at linebacker, then one corner and one safety from the secondary.  A guy to watch as a budding star is sophomore defensive end Jamal Hines, who will be given plenty of opportunity to shine after Toledo lost a pair of rush ends from their rotation in Tuzar Skipper and Reggie Howard, who combined for 110 tackles, 12.5 sacks and 26.5 tackles for loss.  Hines stepped right into the rotation last year as a true freshman and recorded 3 sacks and 9 tackles for a loss in somewhat limited snaps.  To show just how athletic he is from the defensive end spot, he also tied for the team lead with 2 interceptions.  Toledo was another mid-major hit by the transfer portal, with six players entering their names, including three running backs.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Mitchell Guadagni, Senior
TE	Reggie Gilliam, Senior
C	Bryce Harris, Senior
	.
DE	Jamal Hines, Sophomore
LB	Jordan Fisher, Senior
S	Kahlil Robinson, Senior

[ELA]

95. San Diego State Aztecs

#7 in Mountain West

San Diego State may top the list of teams trending in the wrong direction as 2018 ended.  The Aztecs got off to a very strong 6-1 start, with the lone loss being at Stanford, and included wins over Arizona State and Boise State, on the blue turf.  What happened after that is anyone’s guess.  They lost 4 of their final 5, with the lone win being a one score win over a dismal New Mexico team, and included a loss to a bad UNLV team.  They looked just happy to be done in a no show 27-0 blowout loss to Ohio in the Frisco Bowl.  The problem last year was the offense, and it’s tough to see it improving much.  They still have Juwan Washington, but San Diego State has turned into a running back pipeline, no issue there.  Actually as far as the impossibly high bar that has been set recently for Aztec running backs, Washington actually quite a bit short.  999 rushing yards is quite fine, and he missed 4 games with injuries.  But that slotted him at #64 nationally, after Rashaad Penny and Donnel Pumphrey won back to back national rushing titles in 2017 and 2016.  You actually have to go back six years to the last time the Aztecs’ leading rusher fell outside the top eight nationally, and a decade ago was the last time they were outside the top 25.  So it’s clear that the offense wasn’t just contingent on the running game, it was contingent on an elite running game.  Once that slipped to middle of the pack in conference, that house of cards offense fell in a hurry.  They finished dead last in the Mountain West, averaging just 20.6 ppg.  All-conference tight end Kahale Warring was really they only other weapon they had, and they were able to get him the ball less than three times per game, and now he has departed for the NFL.  Ryan Agnew took over for the injured Christian Chapman early last year, and still sort of held the job once Chapman returned, although San Diego State turned to more of a rotation, with neith being very effective.  Chapman graduated, so Agnew needs to progress with his first offseason with real experience under his belt.  It’s not just Warring who departed, but Fred Trevillion, who led the team in receiving as their big play threat, with only 22 catches.  Rocky Long has publicly committed to modernizing his Power I offense.  Considering he didn’t really make any offensive staff changes, it’s still Jeff Horton’s offense, it’s hard to determine how committed to that he is.  I’m not even sure he has the personnel to make the changes.  Agnew does possess more running ability than Chapman did, and did help spark the offense with his legs.  Maybe the offseason could be used to find more designed ways to allow Agnew to use his running ability, rather than just when needed.  Maybe new defensive line coach Brady Hoke can give his replacement, and now boss, Rocky Long, some tips on how he reluctantly had to use Denard Robinson’s unique skill set.  Speaking of Hoke, he has his work cut out for him.  San Diego State limped into a bowl game last year in spite of their offense, namely because of the #1 run defense in the Mountain West, #4 nationally.  While the back seven seems ok, all four members of that run stuffing defensive line graduated.  If there is a noticeable slip up along the line, San Diego State could plummet to the bottom of the Mountain West.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Ryan Agnew, Senior
RB	Juwan Washington, Senior
C	Keith Ismael, Junior
	.
LB	Kyahva Tezino, Senior
CB	Darren Hall, Sophomore
S	Tariq Thompson, Junior

[ELA]

94. Florida Atlantic Owls

#6 in Conference USA

What a difference a year makes.  A year ago Lane Kiffin was on his way towards building the next mid-major powerhouse.  His players were calling themselves the best team in Florida.  They had finished 2017 on a ten game winning streak, and were popping up the back end of some 2018 preseason top 25 rankings.  They had games against Oklahoma and Central Florida in September to establish the inside track for the Group of Five New Years Six birth.  Instead, they got rolled twice, losing 63-14 to Oklahoma, and 56-36 to UCF, en route to not only not making a national splash, but not even making a bowl finishing 5th in their division in the worst Conference USA has ever been, closing with a wimper in a home loss to a sub-.500 Charlotte team to ensure there would be no bowl.  Not that it would have likely gone well, the Owls won only 1 game all year against a team with a winning record.  Then they lost three offensive skill position players early to the NFL Draft, one of only 14 teams to lose three or more players early.  I don’t think any of the others finished #95 in the Massey Composite.  The offense put up nearly identical numbers to 2017, fueled by the conference’s best rushing game, with 241.8 ypg.  But both Devin Singletary and backup Kerrith Whyte decided to enter the draft, so the future there is a little more murky.  The solution might be the return of a healthy Tyrek Tisdale.  Tisdale, the one time Florida commit, and subsequently one time Maryland commit, played sparingly in 2017 as a freshman, and missed all of 2018 with knee surgery.  He has the pedigree to be a star, and was ahead of Whyte on the depth chart after spring ball, before missing the year.  It will help if his best lineman, center Junior Diaz, who won Conference USA Newcomer of the Year after transferring from Tulane, wins his petition for a sixth year of eligibility.  Any chance of working their way back to being a factor in the conference race is going to have to come on the defensive side of the ball.  The Owls may have tricked themselves with 10 starters returning from a unit that was maybe more smoke and mirrors in 2017 than actual talent.  The finished third in the conference in scoring defense in 2017, but mostly thank to a top 10 national turnover rate, that masked a subpar yardage number, and allowed the second most passing yards of any defense in the conference.  They only forced 14 turnovers in 2018, including the national low in fumbles forced, and while they had largely similar stats across the board, it resulted in 9 more ppg allowed.  So while maybe they don’t check all of the “returning starters” boxes this year, maybe that’s a good thing.  It seems as though Kiffin is upgrading the talent across the board, the Owls have signed the top class in the conference in two of the past three years, so the inexperienced guys may actually be an upgrade over the vets that got exposed last year.  They better be, five of the six leading tacklers from 2018 are gone, along with the team leaders in sacks.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Chris Robison, Sophomore
TE	Harrison Bryant, Senior
T	Brandon Walton, Senior
	.
DE	Leighton McCarthy, Junior
LB	Rashad Smith, Senior
S	Zyon Gilbert, Junior