ELA November 17 Breakdown

[ELA]

#10 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1, 9-1) at Maryland Terrapins (3-4, 5-5)

NOON - College Park, MD - ABC

A couple weeks ago I said I was totally split on whether the off the field stories would galvanize or split Maryland.  After a lopsided loss to Michigan State, followed by a tough loss to Indiana, which probably ended any bowl hopes for Maryland, it's seemingly clear that it's the later.  To literally add injury to insult, starting quarterback Kasim Hill is now done for the year with a torn ACL.  I'm not sure that's necessarily the worst thing for the team, I've wondered why, when your passing quarterback can't pass, you don't at least try to switch things up and go with your running quarterback.  While Tyrrell Pigrome did not look great running the ball against Maryland, he actually threw the ball well enough to make me question why Matt Canada hadn't atl east tried the switch earlier.  After Hill opened 4-12 for 43 yards and an interception, digging Maryland into a 21-6 hole, Pigrome went 10-13 for 146 yards and a touchdown, getting Maryland into Indiana territory with a chance to win the game in the final two minutes, before a game sealing fumble.  Ohio State found catharsis in the inept running game of Michigan State to try and get their defense right.  It's tough to say how much was an improved Buckeye defense, and how much was a dismal Spartans running attack, which ranks 13th in the Big Ten.  We might get some answers this week with Ohio State trying to repeat that performance against the conference's third most efficient running attack, a running attack that should be bolstered by Pigrome.  Granted you would think they would also commit more defenders to the run, with Pigrome being less of a passing threat.  He showed last week, particularly with as much as Hill has struggled, that might not be the case.  Of course none of that matters if Maryland can't slow down Ohio State.  Michigan State was largely able to, which did raise some questions about just how potent Ohio State's offense really is.  They managed 26 points against the conference's second best defense, but all but the defense scored 9, and handed them another 10 on short fields.  For all the numbers Ohio State has put up offensively, Michigan State was the first defense they had faced that ranked in the top half of the conference.  Maryland will be the second.  Then the level boss awaits next weekend.  After a cold and windy day in East Lansing, a sunny day, where temps could hit 50, on Saturday in College Park should permit more offense.  Dwayne Haskins clearly struggled with some of his down the field throws, dealing with a strong north and south wind.  Even if Ohio State can jump out to a lead, are the built to protect it?  Thanks to 3 turnovers and a bunch of 3 and outs, Ohio State dominated time of possession last week, which allowed Mike Weber to start to wear down the Spartan front in the fourth quarter.  He finished with a respectable 104 yards on 22 carries.  He had 13 carries on the Buckeyes' final two drives alone.  Ohio State needs to establish the running game much sooner this week, it was absent until after halftime last week.

OHIO STATE 35, MARYLAND 21

Michigan State Spartans (4-3, 6-4) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-5, 3-7)

NOON - Lincoln, NE - FOX

Chalk this one up as a big "who knows?"  Nebraska is clearly a far, far better team than the one we saw in September.  But all that said, their best actual win is a home win over 5-5 Minnesota.  They do have a pair of close losses to Northwestern and Ohio State in their last five though, and could have been playing for a bowl down the stretch if one of those breaks their way.  For the second week in a row, we have to determine if Michigan State's defense is more elite than an elite offense.  They did all they could do against Ohio State, forcing the Buckeyes off the field time and again, only to have their offense put them back in a terrible situation.  So Michigan State's defense doesn't just have to overcome Nebraska's potent offense, averaging a conference best 6.8 ypp, they have to overcome their own offense, averaging only 4.7 ypp, third worst in the conference.  The Spartans have simply been unable to extend drives, converting third downs at a horrific 22.9% clip, nearly 9% worse than anyone else, including Rutgers.  So they aren't just giving opposing offenses the ball in good field position, they aren't even giving their defense a break, averaging only 19.1 first downs per game, third worst.  Granted they are also only allowing 16.6 first downs per game, second best in the conference.  To flip that, Nebraska is second best, averaging 24.3 first downs per game, but giving up 25, second worst.  So the Spartans have gotten used to playing games with a lot of possessions, a lot of special teams play, while the Cornhuskers are accustomed to long, extending drives, on both sides of the ball.  What makes this game hard to predict is Michigan State's quarterback situation.  Brian Lewerke is clearly hurt, and has been for some time.  But it seems to be getting worse.  This much seems clear to even Lewerke himself at this point, but not to Mark Dantonio.  Rocky Lombardi looked plenty capable in the win over Purdue, after getting first team reps all week, and a gameplan built to his strengths.  Coming in cold off the bench against Maryland and Ohio State he looked like a different guy.  Dantonio has spoken of using him like a reliever, but it doesn't seem like he's capable of that at all.  If Michigan State rolls with Lewerke again, then flips to Lombardi when that inevitably doesn't work, Nebraska will win this game.  If the staff handles Lombardi like they did against Purdue, they still, even with all of the running back and receiver injuries (sounds like now only Cody White may play among the WR group, in addition to L.J. Scott officially being shut down for the year), Michigan State still has enough offensive talent against what is a lousy defense.  But Nebraska is not even asking their defense to just do enough, they've won 2 of their last 3 Big Ten games while surrendering 33 ppg.  While Nebraska's offense is good, I don't think it's as good as Ohio State's, and the Buckeyes managed only 250 total yards, on just 4.2 ypp and 7 points until the defense finally said no mas after MSU's 6 offensive drive of three plays or less, out of 7 drives to start the second half.  The problem is Ohio State won the field position battle all game long.  If Nebraska is working short fields, it means their defense played over their heads, or Michigan State played the wrong quarterback, or both.  If either happens again, Nebraska wins.  But every time this year, I've been ready to write the season off, Michigan State pulls one out.  Nebraska has been Dantonio's fly in the ointment since joining the league, only looking good against them once, 2013.  But if Nebraska holds Michigan State to "only" 33 points, it would mark Nebraska's second best defensive effort in Big Ten play, and Michigan State hasn't allowed more than 31 points all season.  It'll take some big turnovers for Nebraska to get there.

MICHIGAN STATE 33, NEBRASKA 21

#14 Penn State Nittany Lions (4-3, 7-3) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-7, 1-9)

NOON - Piscataway, NJ - BTN

It really felt like Rutgers was playing a solid "Rutgers A Game" last week, and Michigan, Shea Patterson aside, looked as iffy as they have since maybe the first half of the Maryland game?  And yet you'd look at the score and while it wasn't trending towards 78-0, it would be 35-7.  So is that their ceiling?  Play their best, hope for an off week, and then only lose in blowout fashion where it at least looks like you maybe deserve to be on the field?  Maybe.  And maybe that's a positive step, because there have been times this year that wasn't even the case.  Penn State survived Wisconsin coming in, by playing defense at a level I didn't think this group was actually capable of.  They gave up the early Jonathan Taylor long run, and then after that, shut Bucky down.  Taylor had "only" 106 yards the rest of the game after that third play from scrimmage, and Wisconsin only mustered 60 passing yards.  The offense got it back too, McSorley having his most efficient game of the season, completing 76% of his 25 passes, his highest mark of the season.  Miles Sanders got rolling again as well, with his strongest, consistent showing since the Illinois game in the Big Ten opener.  Penn State probably didn't need that kind of bounceback showing to give their fan base confidence going into the final two games with Rutgers and a defeated Maryland to close, but at this point it's about the postseason for the Nittany Lions.  Yes, the College Football Playoff is out of reach, but the Rose Bowl is not.  If Michigan beats Ohio State and Northwestern, Penn State is probably at the front of the line to head to Pasadena.  9-4 with losses to all three division rivals and a bowl loss, is a pretty empty 9-4, with a senior Trace McSorley.  But a 10-3 season that ends with a 4 game winning streak, and the program's first Rose Bowl win in over 20 years would be pretty nice.  Rutgers looks competent enough that they can make you sweat if you don't show up, so Penn State can't be caught looking ahead.  The fortunate thing is, looking ahead to what?  A Maryland team that looks already focused on 2019?  An unknown bowl destination and opponent?  The Nittany Lions should be present, while the Wisconsin win was nice, it's not the monumental type of win that leads to a trap game.  Rutgers actually looked solid up the middle in the trenches last week.  They gave Michigan's offensive line some unexpected troubles, and actually ran for nearly 6 ypc, although an 80 yard run will help.  They'll need to repeat that again this week, particularly against a Penn State interior defensive line that has struggled all year, but may be coming around.  If redshirt junior Robert Windsor, who has been mostly forgettable, repeats his performance from a week ago against Wisconsin, when he was surprisingly dominant against the Badger line, he should cause absolute havoc against Rutgers.  A Rutgers team that has to stay on schedule, because Art Sitkowski, while having arm talent, still lacks receivers or good decision making if you get him into obvious passing downs.  Keep him in short throws, get the play action working, and don't make him check through too many reads.  I've never been James Franklin's biggest fan, but credit him for getting his team refocused after the disaster in Ann Arbor.  Penn State did not come through as my pick of conference champion this year, but if last week is a sign, they should be ending strong.

PENN STATE 42, RUTGERS 10

#22 Northwestern Wildcats (6-1, 6-4) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-5, 5-5)

NOON - Minneapolis, MN - BTN

Now that Northwestern wrapped up their first ever division crown, and trip to Indianapolis, it will be interesting to see how these last two weeks play out.  They can't do anything, positively or negatively to impact their Big Ten title and/or Rose Bowl chances the next two weeks.  Even with a pair of wins, a loss in the Big Ten Championship Game still puts them at 8-5, which is not Rose Bowl material.  They are obviously well outside the College Football Playoff radar, even if they win out.  So the question now is whether Pat Fitzgerald can keep his team focused, a week after doing a lot of celebrating for only being November 10.  Minnesota showed last week that while their floor is very, very low (see blowout loss to Illinois two weeks ago), their ceiling is still pretty high.  That's because they are finally playing offense at a level we have not seen in the Twin Cities, maybe since the Glen Mason days.  While I thought firing the defensive coordinator, just to promote his defensive line coach was putting makeup on a pig, it seemed to work.  If the Gophers can play even a little bit of defense, they are going to be a tough out for both Northwestern, and in the Ax game next week.  They didn't just show improvement, they were dominant.  They held the Boilermakers to 233 yards and just 14 first downs.  The Minnesota defense scored as many points as the Purdue offense, and the one score Purdue mustered was a garbage time touchdown, down 41-3 with 5 minutes left.  Offensively, Minnesota is humming as well.  You hate to say a guy lost a job due to an injury, and Zack Annexstad wasn't playing poorly, but the offense seems to have hit another gear once fellow freshman Tanner Morgan took over midway through the Nebraska game.  The Gophers are averaging nearly 37 ppg in his three starts, and Mohamed Ibrahim has bounced back with a vengeance.  He has missed all or part of 4 games with an injury, but when healthy, he is a load.  He is averaging 111.3 ypg in the 6 games he's been healthy, on 6.2 ypc.  He'd be trailing only Jonathan Taylor among Big Ten backs at those numbers.  But Northwestern keeps finding a way.  Minnesota has only played two games all year that were within two scores, Northwestern lives in that territory.  They haven't played a game yet this year that was won by more than two scores, either direction.  During their current 5 game Big Ten winning streak, they trailed in the second half in all but one.  But they've found ways.  Last week they had a 19 play, 55 yard drive, (how you have a sustained drive averaging 2.89 ypp is impressive itself, that ended with a missed short field goal that would have tied the game.  No matter, the defense forced a quick three and out, and four plays later Clayton Thorson found Bennett Skowronek for an amazing 32 yard touchdown grab.  I bring it up every week, but the emergence of Isaiah Bowser continues to dazzle.  Through six games, Northwestern's run game was miserable, and he had 2 carries.  Over the past four weeks he's been given 112 carries, and come through with 108, 117, 93 and 165 yards.  Much like Ibrahim, his 130.0 ypg in Big Ten games would be second to Taylor, but he has only really played in three Big Ten games.  Even four games down on most of the competition, I expect he'll find his way onto those rushing leaderboard by the end of the season.  At his current pace, he'll finish with 652 rushing yards in just five Big Ten games.  I think Minnesota got a spark last week, and something is clearly amiss in West Lafayette right now, but I can't imagine that simply promoting a defensive line coach to coordinator is going to make a lasting impact.  And I'm done betting against the Cats.

NORTHWESTERN 30, MINNESOTA 24

Iowa Hawkeyes (3-4, 6-4) at Illinois Fighting Illini (2-5, 4-6)

3:30 - Champaign, IL - BTN

There is no way to describe this season in Iowa City, other than massive disappointment.  Even without knowing that Wisconsin would be way down, everything seemed to break perfectly for the Hawkeyes to return to Indianapolis for the first time in three years, for a chance to win their first Big Ten title in 14 years.  Instead a three game losing streak, by a combined 12 points, has forced Iowa to win out just to finish .500 in the conference.  They didn't just not win the division, they were mathematically eliminated with two weeks to play.  But while Iowa had a barrage of close losses in big games, they didn't just win every game they should, the manhandled the opposition.  The Hawkeyes finish with two teams that almost certainly won't be bowling, so there's a chance to end the season strong, and that September win over Iowa State gives them bragging rights, and a win that keeps looking more impressive as the weeks drag on.  Iowa's defense will get put to the test by an Illinois offense that is suddenly frighteningly effective.  The Illini turned the ball over 5 times against Nebraska, and still put up over 500 yards of total offense.  A.J. Bush Jr. didn't do much through the air, but his legs continued to help the offense, which only extended its lead as the top rushing team in the conference.  Bush  had career highs with 187 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns, and Illinois ran for 7.8 ypc.  Reggie Corbin, who had been rolling at tailback, had another 6.6 ypc day, but only got 9 carries.  Not to worry, Ra'Von Bonner, who hadn't even played the previous week had 10 carries for 81 yards himself.  Minnesota and Nebraska have the worst run defenses in the conference outside of Illinois, so Iowa presents a very different challenge.  The Hawkeyes defense is allowing only 3.5 ypc on the ground, third best in the conference.  As frightening as Illinois' rushing numbers are, the only run defense they've faced that ranks in the top five in the conference was Purdue, and the Boilermakers held Illinois to 2.2 ypc, with A.J. Bush's 24 rushing yards leading the team.  So is Illinois a lot better than they were then, or have they just been feasting on some terrible run stoppers?  Probably some of both, but I do hedge a little towards the latter.  I also think Reggie Corbin needs to come back healthy, he had been crushing teams prior to getting injured against Nebraska.  Bonner had a good game, but isn't nearly as good.  Iowa needs to get their own run game going against the Big Ten's worst run defense.  If the Hawkeyes can't run on Illinois, they simply can't run.  Seeing Iowa was down 3rd from the bottom at 3.8 ypc is not a sight we are used to seeing.  It's resulted in Nate Stanley having to do way too much, and not generating consistent offense late in the game.  Last week, after Northwestern took the lead with 9:27 to play, Iowa had the three more possessions, they had 12 plays for 58 yards, with the drives resulting in a 3 and out and 2 fumbles.  Stanley has thrown 49 times, 32 times and 41 times over the past three games.  He had only thrown more than 32 times once in the previous nine games prior to doing it three straight weeks.  That's not Iowa football.  Against Illinois they should get him much back into his comfort zone, throwing it 25 times.  Or even better, not having to finish the game.  Obviously the 5 turnovers from a week ago can't be repeated, but assuming Illinois can protect the ball, can they get enough stops.  The run game will get it's yards, but they have almost zero margin for error right now.  Assuming Iowa is refocused after a disspointing end at home last week, they should continue their string of comfortable wins over mis-matched competition.

IOWA 42, ILLINOIS 24

Indiana Hoosiers (2-5, 5-5) at #4 Michigan Wolverines (7-0, 9-1)

4:00 - Ann Arbor, MI - FS1

Ohio State taking care of business in East Lansing last week means that absent a big upset in College Park, Michigan can't clinch their first ever trip to the Big Ten Championship Game in front of their home fans this week.  That's ok.  While there was a time where losing this, but still beating Ohio State next weekend to go to Pasadena meant you accomplished your goal, that ain't the case for Michigan this year.  Yes, winning a Big Ten title and going to the Rose Bowl is a hell of a consolation prize, the Wolverines also likely control their own College Football Playoff aspirations, and a loss would derail that, even if it wouldn't derail their conference title hopes.  After a 3-0 start, which included an (in retrospect) underrated win over a Virginia team that has been ranked at points this season, Big Ten play has not gone the Hoosiers way.  Two touchdown or more losses to Michigan State, Ohio State, and Iowa, a blowout loss to a seemingly dead Minnesota team, and a narrow 7 point win over lowly Rutgers.  Indiana was sitting at 1-5 in Big Ten play with only a close loss to Penn State looking respectable.  The Hoosiers had their bye week late though, and came out of it with a win over Maryland, in perhaps their best performance since September.  Yes, Maryland has issues, but defensively they are pretty good, and Indiana scored three touchdowns in about 4 minutes in the second quarter to blow open a big lead.  Even after Maryland fought back, Indiana found a way to scrap out a win, forcing a fumble to seal the game after Maryland had crossed into Hoosier territory in the final 2 minutes, looking for the game winning field goal.  Now Indiana needs one more win to reach bowl eligibility, and it's either going to be Michigan, or in the Bucket game next week.  Since Tom Allen took over the program the identity had flipped from offense to defense, but in Big Ten games this year, the defense has wilted.  They are giving up 35.1 ppg and 452.9 ypg on 6.3 ypp, 4th worst in the conference across the board.  The problems are largely with the pass defense, where Indiana gives up 8.5 ypa, 2nd worst in the Big Ten, along with a league high 20 passing touchdowns.  The secondary has bailed them out with a number of picks, but the front isn't generating much pressure, a 5.26% sack rate, which is allowing opponents to convert 43.2% of their third downs, and 71.4% of their fourth downs.  The Hoosiers have allowed 10 4th down conversions, most in the conference.  If Shea Patterson looks like he did last week, watch out.  He showed every bit of his starz rating in the win over Rutgers.  You may say, "but Rutgers," but to watch the game, the guys around him didn't show up.  The line regressed, the running game was absent, and he had a couple balls dropped early.  But he was hitting throws that I had not seen him make all year.  If that's who Michigan has going forward, look out, this suddenly becomes a team that can win the whole damn thing.  Defensively, it's hard to criticize Michigan.  Sometimes, like last week against Rutgers, they seem to get almost too fired up, as though just shutting teams down isn't enough, they want negative yardage plays every snap, and they lose discipline.  Peyton Ramsey is efficient, if you overplay him seeking the splash plays, he'll hurt you.  But while that may present opportunities for Indiana, the Wolverines still hit on enough of those plays to still beat you.  Indiana was better early in the year when Stevie Scott was running the ball well and providing balance.  A lower recruited true freshman was unlikely to continue that against better competition.  He didn't, and Michigan's defense is hardly the week to get right.

MICHIGAN 38, INDIANA 15

***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***

Wisconsin Badgers (4-3, 6-4) at Purdue Boilermakers (4-3, 5-5)

3:30 - West Lafayette, IN - BTN

What happens when one division get clinched with two weeks to play, and the only two teams with a shot on the other side are facing off against teams unlikely to head to a bowl?  A "Game of the Week" between two teams with a combined 11-9 record.  But, it's the only game this week between two teams with a winning conference record, so it is what it is.  It's also two teams limping disappointed into what, a few weeks ago, looked like a big time game, with major division championship ramifications.  Instead, for Wisconsin, the Alex Hornibrook appreciation season rolls on.  While his lack of improvement from his freshman season was frustrating, Badger fans can't get him back soon enough.  Jack Coan had a solid pedigree, he had offers from schools like Michigan, Nebraska and Maryland, and its early in his career, but what is clear is that he's not ready now.  Wisconsin has always had levels of quarterback play from great to, at worst, not messing things up.  Coan is setting a new floor though, after going 9-20 for 60 yards and a pair of interceptions last weekend, as Bucky got a 71 yard touchdown run from Jonathan Taylor on the third play of the game, and then only 196 total yards the rest of the day.  If Wisconsin can get a lead and play from ahead, Coan showed in relief against Rutgers, he might be ok there, the problem is that in his two starts Wisconsin has fallen behind quickly and he's had to throw a lot.  Some of this is also on Chryst.  Wisconsin had four easy wins earlier in the year, and he didn't get Coan action in any of them.  While Purdue's defense is not at 2017 levels, against the run they are just as stout, allowing just 4.2 ypc, 4th best in the conference.  The way to beat the Purdue defense is through the air, and I'm not sure Wisconsin can do that right now.  The Boilermakers are giving up a league high 278.9 ypg, and while their 7.0 ypa looks a little better, teams are throwing on them a ton, more than they are against any team in the conference (39.9 apg).  The staggering thing about that is that while facing the most passes of any defense, they have the second fewest interceptions (4), and easily the worst attempts per interception (69.8) in the conference.  To compare, the conference's worst pass defense, Illinois, is at least forcing an interception per 26 attempts.  Wisconsin gets their rushing yards on everyone, but the issue is, particularly against Purdue, you have to be able to pass some.  What is impossible to factor in here are the intangibles.  It's the first week that both are eliminated from Indianapolis.  Also, nobody knows what is going on with Purdue.  They got blown off the field by an awful Minnesota team, fresh off their own blowout loss to Illinois, who had just fired their defensive coordinator for giving up 55 points, and Purdue managed 3 non-garbage time points.  Then rumors start flying about coach Jeff Brohm and Louisville.  Are the two connected?  Was that a fluke performance?  Are they not connected, but still showing signs of some other issue Purdue has on the field right now?  Who knows.  Purdue has been all over the map this season, so maybe crushing Ohio State, laying an egg at Michigan State, beating Iowa, getting demolished by Minnesota, and then beating Wisconsin is just who they are.  Rondale Moore is Rondale Moore, but they need D.J. Knox back.  Big Ten defenses, even Minnesota's apparently are too good to beat with just one guy.  When the Boilermakers had their 4 game winning streak, he ran for 51, 87, 150 and 128.  In losing two of their last three he's gone for 51, 34, and 34.  Now Michigan State and Iowa have two of the best run defenses in the nation, so there's no shame in getting shut down on the ground there.  But Minnesota was giving up 6.5 ypc, second worst in the Big Ten, and they held Knox to 34 yards on 3.4 ypc.  Wisconsin is better than Minnesota there, but they aren't up to their normal standards, at just 9th in the Big Ten against the run.  I think Knox gets things back on track, and while Taylor has another strong game, Wisconsin struggles again to win one dimensionally.  Or Purdue could come out totally distracted and lose by 35.

PURDUE 30, WISCONSIN 27

[ELA]

Noon games in

[medinabuckeye1]

By Power Ranking.  

• #12 Indiana at #1 Michigan
• #2 Ohio State at #10 Maryland
• #3 Northwestern at #11 Minnesota
• #4 Michigan State at #9 Nebraska
• #5 Penn State at #14 Rutgers
• #6 Iowa at #13 Illinois
• #7 Wisconsin at #8 Purdue

[MrNubbz]

Can the Goophs put it together 2 weeks in a row?Will the'Cats be sitting people?Might be the contest to watch

[Anonymous Coward]

I'm pretty interested in Purdue/Wisconsin. Won't be able to watch, but I think that one is fascinating for a lot of reasons. What does it say of Brohm's future, both team trajectories, the 2019 West, how low can Wisconsin's "worst case scenario" season theoretically go, is Purdue really this inconsistent?

[Kris60]

I can’t believe LJ Scott has another year of eligibility.  I would have bet money he had already been there 8 years.

[ELA]

I can’t believe LJ Scott has another year of eligibility.  I would have bet money he had already been there 8 years.

About as long at it takes him to hit the hole

[Kris60]

About as long at it takes him to hit the hole

In all seriousness, wasn’t he the one who scored the GW TD against Iowa in 2015?

[ELA]

In all seriousness, wasn’t he the one who scored the GW TD against Iowa in 2015?

Yup, as a true freshman

[ELA]

All picks in