| What happens when one division get clinched with two weeks to play, and the only two teams with a shot on the other side are facing off against teams unlikely to head to a bowl? A "Game of the Week" between two teams with a combined 11-9 record. But, it's the only game this week between two teams with a winning conference record, so it is what it is. It's also two teams limping disappointed into what, a few weeks ago, looked like a big time game, with major division championship ramifications. Instead, for Wisconsin, the Alex Hornibrook appreciation season rolls on. While his lack of improvement from his freshman season was frustrating, Badger fans can't get him back soon enough. Jack Coan had a solid pedigree, he had offers from schools like Michigan, Nebraska and Maryland, and its early in his career, but what is clear is that he's not ready now. Wisconsin has always had levels of quarterback play from great to, at worst, not messing things up. Coan is setting a new floor though, after going 9-20 for 60 yards and a pair of interceptions last weekend, as Bucky got a 71 yard touchdown run from Jonathan Taylor on the third play of the game, and then only 196 total yards the rest of the day. If Wisconsin can get a lead and play from ahead, Coan showed in relief against Rutgers, he might be ok there, the problem is that in his two starts Wisconsin has fallen behind quickly and he's had to throw a lot. Some of this is also on Chryst. Wisconsin had four easy wins earlier in the year, and he didn't get Coan action in any of them. While Purdue's defense is not at 2017 levels, against the run they are just as stout, allowing just 4.2 ypc, 4th best in the conference. The way to beat the Purdue defense is through the air, and I'm not sure Wisconsin can do that right now. The Boilermakers are giving up a league high 278.9 ypg, and while their 7.0 ypa looks a little better, teams are throwing on them a ton, more than they are against any team in the conference (39.9 apg). The staggering thing about that is that while facing the most passes of any defense, they have the second fewest interceptions (4), and easily the worst attempts per interception (69.8) in the conference. To compare, the conference's worst pass defense, Illinois, is at least forcing an interception per 26 attempts. Wisconsin gets their rushing yards on everyone, but the issue is, particularly against Purdue, you have to be able to pass some. What is impossible to factor in here are the intangibles. It's the first week that both are eliminated from Indianapolis. Also, nobody knows what is going on with Purdue. They got blown off the field by an awful Minnesota team, fresh off their own blowout loss to Illinois, who had just fired their defensive coordinator for giving up 55 points, and Purdue managed 3 non-garbage time points. Then rumors start flying about coach Jeff Brohm and Louisville. Are the two connected? Was that a fluke performance? Are they not connected, but still showing signs of some other issue Purdue has on the field right now? Who knows. Purdue has been all over the map this season, so maybe crushing Ohio State, laying an egg at Michigan State, beating Iowa, getting demolished by Minnesota, and then beating Wisconsin is just who they are. Rondale Moore is Rondale Moore, but they need D.J. Knox back. Big Ten defenses, even Minnesota's apparently are too good to beat with just one guy. When the Boilermakers had their 4 game winning streak, he ran for 51, 87, 150 and 128. In losing two of their last three he's gone for 51, 34, and 34. Now Michigan State and Iowa have two of the best run defenses in the nation, so there's no shame in getting shut down on the ground there. But Minnesota was giving up 6.5 ypc, second worst in the Big Ten, and they held Knox to 34 yards on 3.4 ypc. Wisconsin is better than Minnesota there, but they aren't up to their normal standards, at just 9th in the Big Ten against the run. I think Knox gets things back on track, and while Taylor has another strong game, Wisconsin struggles again to win one dimensionally. Or Purdue could come out totally distracted and lose by 35. |
