Teams with 1st loss Week 11:
None
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 11:
Fresno State
Percent of Undefeated Teams with 1st Loss
Week 0/1: 36.92% (48/130)
Week 2: 34.15% (28/82)
Week 3: 37.04% (20/54)
Week 4: 38.34% (13/34)
Week 5: 33.33% (7 of 21)
Week 6: 21.43% (3 of 14)
Week 7: 27.27% (3 of 11)
Week 8: 37.50% (3 of 8)
Week 9: 20% (1 of 5)
Week 10: 0% (0 of 4)
Week 11: 0% (0 of 4)
Maximum possible Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season:
4: Notre Dame, UCF, Clemson, Alabama
Week 11 Thoughts:
-Our only loss of the week from our lists was Fresno State falling to Boise State. This leaves Fresno State with 2 losses and likely means only a 1-loss Utah State would be seriously considered vs. a 1-loss American champ. That said, both 2-loss Fresno State and 2-loss Boise State (along with 1-loss Buffalo and UAB) will very much be in the race if they win out and if the team from the western division of the American wins their conference championship (5-5 SMU controls their destiny and 7-3 can regain if SMU falters).
-Favorites mostly managed to win this week. Clemson and UAB joined Alabama and Georgia in securing a place in their conference championship games. Not on these lists, but Northwestern somewhat shockingly has secured their spot in the Big Ten Championship and still has 2 games to go.
Week 12 Thoughts:
-We have one game between an undefeated and a 1-loss team this week, 1-loss Cincinnati @ undefeated Central Florida. Winner here will be the team most widely projected to take the NY6 bowl. For Central Florida a win will lock them in the American championship. For Cincinnati, they will need a little more, but be in a good spot. In addition to beating East Carolina, they will need Temple to lose one of its final 2 or Central Florida to beat South Florida in the final weekend (as this would create a 3-way tie they would win).
-Our other undefeated teams play in the following: Syracuse vs. undefeated Notre Dame (Yankee Stadium), The Citadel @ undefeated Alabama, Duke @ undefeated Clemson
Syracuse vs. Notre Dame: Given how USC has been playing, this is probably Notre Dame’s toughest remaining game. On the other side, Syracuse is the ACC’s best hope for a 2nd team making a NY6 bowl if Clemson wins out. With the Orange Bowl being a playoff bowl, if Clemson ends up ACC champs, Syracuse might need to stay close in this game to stay in position to grab the spot.
-Our other 1-loss teams play in the following: 1-loss Buffalo @ Ohio, 1-loss Ohio State @ Maryland, 1-loss Utah State @ Colorado State, 1-loss West Virginia @ Oklahoma State, Indiana @ 1-loss Michigan, UMass @ 1-loss Georgia, 1-loss UAB @ Texas A&M, Kansas @ 1-loss Oklahoma, and Arizona @ 1-loss Washington State
Arizona @ Washington State: Arizona are tied for 1st and controls their destiny in the PAC-12 South. Washington State is still a playoff bowl competitor. One of those two will not be true after this game.
West Virginia @ Oklahoma State: The Mountaineers are only aa 5-point favorite here. With Oklahoma up next, a loss would make winner of Texas/Iowa State more likely to be in Big 12 Championship.
Ohio State vs. Maryland: If Ohio State wins, sets up next weeks OSU/Michigan game as game to determine who plays Northwestern in Big Ten Championship.
UAB @ Texas A&M: This is UAB’s chance to put a statement win on. Win this and they’ll at least be considered with a 1-loss American or Mountain West champ (although might still need 2 loss champs in the end).
Buffalo @ Ohio University: Buffalo only a small favorite here, but with a bit of chaos will at least stay in conversation for New Year’s 6 Bowl with a win. They also lock up place in MAC Championship with a win.
-Other very interesting game to me: Iowa State @ Texas: If West Virginia loses this week, Iowa State controls their own destiny. Even if they don’t though, the winner of this game is heavily invested in next week’s game between Oklahoma and West Virginia. If Texas wins out, they would beat out Oklahoma for the tie breaker if West Virginia wins next week. If Iowa State wins out, they would beat out West Virginia in a tie-breaker.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, SEC: 1, independents: 1, total: 4
Clemson
Central Florida
Alabama
Notre Dame
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 0, American: 1, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 1, independents: 0, total: 10
Michigan
UAB
Utah State
Washington State
Buffalo
Oklahoma
Georgia
West Virginia
Ohio State
Cincinnati
