| Ohio State taking care of business in East Lansing last week means that absent a big upset in College Park, Michigan can't clinch their first ever trip to the Big Ten Championship Game in front of their home fans this week. That's ok. While there was a time where losing this, but still beating Ohio State next weekend to go to Pasadena meant you accomplished your goal, that ain't the case for Michigan this year. Yes, winning a Big Ten title and going to the Rose Bowl is a hell of a consolation prize, the Wolverines also likely control their own College Football Playoff aspirations, and a loss would derail that, even if it wouldn't derail their conference title hopes. After a 3-0 start, which included an (in retrospect) underrated win over a Virginia team that has been ranked at points this season, Big Ten play has not gone the Hoosiers way. Two touchdown or more losses to Michigan State, Ohio State, and Iowa, a blowout loss to a seemingly dead Minnesota team, and a narrow 7 point win over lowly Rutgers. Indiana was sitting at 1-5 in Big Ten play with only a close loss to Penn State looking respectable. The Hoosiers had their bye week late though, and came out of it with a win over Maryland, in perhaps their best performance since September. Yes, Maryland has issues, but defensively they are pretty good, and Indiana scored three touchdowns in about 4 minutes in the second quarter to blow open a big lead. Even after Maryland fought back, Indiana found a way to scrap out a win, forcing a fumble to seal the game after Maryland had crossed into Hoosier territory in the final 2 minutes, looking for the game winning field goal. Now Indiana needs one more win to reach bowl eligibility, and it's either going to be Michigan, or in the Bucket game next week. Since Tom Allen took over the program the identity had flipped from offense to defense, but in Big Ten games this year, the defense has wilted. They are giving up 35.1 ppg and 452.9 ypg on 6.3 ypp, 4th worst in the conference across the board. The problems are largely with the pass defense, where Indiana gives up 8.5 ypa, 2nd worst in the Big Ten, along with a league high 20 passing touchdowns. The secondary has bailed them out with a number of picks, but the front isn't generating much pressure, a 5.26% sack rate, which is allowing opponents to convert 43.2% of their third downs, and 71.4% of their fourth downs. The Hoosiers have allowed 10 4th down conversions, most in the conference. If Shea Patterson looks like he did last week, watch out. He showed every bit of his starz rating in the win over Rutgers. You may say, "but Rutgers," but to watch the game, the guys around him didn't show up. The line regressed, the running game was absent, and he had a couple balls dropped early. But he was hitting throws that I had not seen him make all year. If that's who Michigan has going forward, look out, this suddenly becomes a team that can win the whole damn thing. Defensively, it's hard to criticize Michigan. Sometimes, like last week against Rutgers, they seem to get almost too fired up, as though just shutting teams down isn't enough, they want negative yardage plays every snap, and they lose discipline. Peyton Ramsey is efficient, if you overplay him seeking the splash plays, he'll hurt you. But while that may present opportunities for Indiana, the Wolverines still hit on enough of those plays to still beat you. Indiana was better early in the year when Stevie Scott was running the ball well and providing balance. A lower recruited true freshman was unlikely to continue that against better competition. He didn't, and Michigan's defense is hardly the week to get right. |
