B1G Divisional races headed into week 11

[medinabuckeye1]

B1G-E:

• 6-0 Michigan:  Controls their own destiny.  
• 5-1 Ohio State:  Controls their own destiny.  
• 4-2 Michigan State:  Needs M to lose out or:  Needs to win out and M to lose to either IU or RU and tOSU to beat M.  That would create a three-way tie between M, MSU, and tOSU at 7-2 with each being 1-1 against the other two.  Michigan would be eliminated on tiebreaker #2 Divisional Record because their other loss was in the Division.  Then it would go to H2H between the Spartans and Buckeyes and in this scenario the Spartans would have a H2H win there.  
• 3-3 Maryland:  Has a theoretical mathematical chance to at least get to the third tiebreaker but it involves Michigan losing to Rutgers so yeah not happening.  
• 3-3 Penn State:  Mathematically eliminated because the best they could do is a tie with M at 6-3 and the Nittany Lions lost to every team that could possibly be included in that tie (M, tOSU, MSU).  
• 1-5 Indiana:  Mathematically eliminated.  
• 0-6 Rutgers:  Mathematically eliminated.  

As a practical matter the B1G-E is between tOSU and M but Michigan could clinch early if Ohio State drops either the MSU or UMD games.  

B1G-W:

• 5-1 Northwestern:  Controls their own destiny and can afford to lose any of their remaining games (just not two without help).  
• 4-2 Wisconsin:  Needs two NU losses.  
• 4-2 Purdue:  Needs two NU losses.  
• 3-3 Iowa:  Needs one NU loss, one UW loss, and one PU loss.  They could NOT win a three-way tie with NU and either PU or UW because that would come down to record against the next best team in the division and Iowa would lose that.  They would also lose a four-way tie with NU, UW, and PU because they would be 1-2 H2H2H2H.  
• 2-4 Illinois:  Has a minute mathematical chance* but no practical chance.  
• 1-5 Nebraska:  Mathematically eliminated.  
• 1-5 Minnesota:  Mathematically eliminated.  

As a practical matter this is between NU and the UW/PU winner but the UW/PU winner needs NU to drop two of their last three (@IA, @MN, vIL) so there is very little chance.  

*Illinois' mathematical chance is this:

• Win out to finish 5-4.  
• NU loses out to finish 5-4.  
• The PU/UW winner loses out to finish 5-4.  
• The PU/UW loser loses out to finish 4-5.  
• Other than their loss to ILL, Iowa wins out to finish 5-4.  

This creates a four-way tie between Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa, and the PU/UW winner.  Illinois and Northwestern would be 2-1 in the H2H2H2H while Iowa and the PU/UW winner would be 1-2.  That would then be decided by the H2H among the two 2-1 teams (Illinois and Northwestern) and the Illini would win that.  

[Cincydawg]

At least the SEC made it easier for your there, already decided, a done deal, earliest in history.

[medinabuckeye1]

At least the SEC made it easier for your there, already decided, a done deal, earliest in history.

It is odd that the SECCG is set over a month in advance.  

[Brutus Buckeye]

Not when you factor in that a lot of SEC teams take a week off before their FCS tune up that precedes rivalry week; many of which are OOC rivalries. 

Their Conference slate is mostly complete. 

[Cincydawg]

This is the earliest the SEC has ever been decided since divisional play began.  The teams in the West have two conference games remaining, in the main, but the top four teams in the East have but one.

[LittlePig]

It sounds like Iowa needs, in addition to NW losing at least 1 other game, also Wisc and Purdue need to both lose twice. 

Sounds like Iowa can't win any tiebreakers other than a 2-way tie with NW.

[medinabuckeye1]

It sounds like Iowa needs, in addition to NW losing at least 1 other game, also Wisc and Purdue need to both lose twice.

Sounds like Iowa can't win any tiebreakers other than a 2-way tie with NW.

That is pretty much it.  
They can give NU a second loss this weekend but that just puts NU, UW, and PU one game ahead of Iowa in the loss column.  Next weekend either PU or UW will lose.  That helps but it is far from enough because the tiebreakers are not kind to the Hawkeyes.  I do not see any mathematically possible tie that Iowa would win other than the one you mentioned, two-way with NU only.  

[Cincydawg]

Interesting how many divisions are very complicated even now, and two are sewn up, and most of the others are down to two teams or close to it.

The ACC Coastal and Pac South vie for worst division champ I think.

[FearlessF]

[LittlePig]

In the race between East and West divisions, the East is up by 2 games with 4 inter-division games yet to play

Wisc at PSU -week 11
MSU at Neb - week 12
Pur at Indy - Week 13
CCG - week 14

So the East can not clinch until week 12 at the earliest.  If Wisc can somehow upset PSU, it could come down to the CCG again.

[FearlessF]

Go BUCKY!

[medinabuckeye1]

In the race between East and West divisions, the East is up by 2 games with 4 inter-division games yet to play

Wisc at PSU -week 11
MSU at Neb - week 12
Pur at Indy - Week 13
CCG - week 14
So the East can not clinch until week 12 at the earliest.  If Wisc can somehow upset PSU, it could come down to the CCG again.

The B1G-W is doing very well when one considers that they play most of these on the road this year.  
Interdivision games in B1G-E stadiums:  East leads 8-4 with two to play.  

• Nebraska lost at Michigan  
• Wisconsin lost at Michigan
• Minnesota lost at Ohio State
• Nebraska lost at Ohio State
• Northwestern won at Michigan State
• Purdue lost at Michigan State
• Iowa lost at Penn State
• Minnesota lost at Maryland
• Illinois lost at Maryland
• Iowa won at Indiana
• Illinois won at Rutgers
• Northwestern won at Rutgers
• Wisconsin is at Penn State on 11/10
• Purdue is at Indiana on 11/24

Interdivision games in B1G-W stadiums:  West leads 4-2 with one to play.  

• Michigan won at Northwestern
• Ohio State lost at Purdue
• Penn State won at Illinois
• Maryland lost at Iowa
• Indiana lost at Minnesota
• Rutgers lost at Wisconsin
• Michigan State is at Nebraska on 11/17

So far the home teams are winning twice as many as they are losing with two more in B1G-E stadiums, one more in a B1G-W stadium, and the neutral-site B1GCG left to play.  The B1G-E is up 10-8 with four to play.  

[FearlessF]

so, the East had a good home field advantage this season.  Hopefully, this is reversed in 2019

[Brutus Buckeye]

It flip flops back and forth like a greased catfish.