ELA 130 Team Countdown

[Cincydawg]

Yeah, Burrow probably will earn the starting slot.  Upper level teams HAVE to manage to have a steady stream of very capable QBs, stacking them up as extras if necessary.  Few college teams can do well without a very good QB.

A Georgia Tech might be an exception in terms of passing abilities.

[Cincydawg]

As for ESPN, they appear to contrive to have various different kinds of rankings that conflict to catch eyeballs.  Their power ranking is often askew of anything and their predicted wins is often also askew of anything else.  Of course we appreciate that a 6-6 team might be decent versus another 6-6 team, but 6-6 doesn't merit any kind of top 25 ranking in my world.

LSU with Burrow might merit a move up to say 30 now, but 30 or 40, eh, not really that important ...

They managed to lose to Troy last year, that is hard to over look really.  If they indeed are loaded with talent, fine, but SOMETHING is causing them to lay large eggs.  We all know what that something can comprise.

I haven't kept up with the ACC teams that are not yet covered by ELA, but there appear to be a lot of them.  I'd guess LSU would be favored over 4-5 of them neutral field etc.

[ELA]

Yeah, I'd probably move them up to the mid 30s with an actual QB

[Cincydawg]

Yeah, I'd probably move them up to the mid 30s with an actual QB

As we noted before, that isn't enough of a move to matter, at all.  That is a 7-6 team and another 7-6 team in any final rankings (P5).  It would be easier obviously to rank teams in larger groups, like deciles perhaps, until you get to the top 20.
And even then you have two 8-4 teams that are about equal but one eeks out a 31-30 win over the other and the 9-4 team ends up ranked 18th and the 8-5 team ends up 28th.

[ELA]

39. Louisville Cardinal

#10 in ACC

Is there life after Lamar Jackson?  Bobby Petrino has been putting together potent offenses with a variety of types of quarterbacks long before Lamar Jackson showed up at Louisville, and something tells me he will continue to.  It seems like the keys will be handed to junior Jawon Pass, who was efficient in limited action last year, and he will be given some toys to play with.  The Cardinals return probably the top wide receiver duo in the ACC, in Jaylen Smith and Dez Fitzpatrick.  Fitzpatrick was playing like a freshman all-American the first half of the season, culminating with back to back 125+ yard games against NC State and Boston College in early October.  It’s unclear if he had a nagging injury, teams started realizing they should cover the freshman, or he wore down, but he wasn’t the same player in the second half.  Jaylen Smith never slowed down, finishing second in the ACC with 98.0 receiving yards per game, and leading qualified players, averaging 16.3 yards per reception.  The defense is in slightly worse shape, but lets be honest, it’s not about defense at Louisville.  They have a lot of youth, starting with the guy running the thing, Dorian Etheridge, the sophomore middle linebacker.  Etheridge took over the job last year as a true freshman, and all he did was lead the team in tackles.  As he progresses and becomes a smarter player, the sky is the limit.  He could already be one of the best middle linebackers in the nation as just a true sophomore.  Etheride in the middle allows his running mate, Jon Greenard to attack from the outside.  He racked up a team leading 7 sacks last year, but is going to be asked to do more this year as well.  The reason is a lack of help behind them.  They need to generate a lot more quarterback pressure this year, after losing 3/4 of their starting secondary, including a pair of all-conference cornerbacks.
Key Players

WR		Jaylen Smith, Senior
WR		Dez Fitzpatrick, Sophomore
K		Blanton Creque, Junior
	.
LB		Dorian Etheridge, Sophomore
LB		Jon Greenard, Junior
S		Dee Smith, Senior

38. Fresno State Bulldogs

#2 in Mountain West

Sometimes we talk about rebuild jobs being a year ahead of schedule.  I think it’s fair to say Jeff Tedford was two years ahead of schedule.  The Bulldogs had been 4-20 over the previous two years, and had major roster turnover following a 2016 season that saw them lose every conference game.  I had them as one of the 15 worst FBS teams last year.  Blowout September losses on the road at Alabama and Washington were expected but forgivable.  Suddenly they turned it around, won 8 of their next 9, including a win over #25 Boise State.  They had a rematch with the Broncos in the conference championship game, and led in the fourth quarter before letting it slip away.  Considering 2017 was supposed to be a total reboot, that was beyond unbelievable.  Now the goal for 2018 has suddenly moved from maybe getting respectable to winning a conference championship.  And hell, they should be even better next year.  They return 16 starters, including all of their key skill position players from that team.  They return not one, not two, but three all conference players on both the offensive line and the secondary.  They only lose one player who caught a pass last season, and quarterback Marcus McMaryion returns as well.  Think Oregon State wishes they hadn’t let him walk?  If there is any weakness it’s on the defensive line.  Having such a talented secondary will allow them to cover for that.  Expect bringing just four to be the exception, not the rule.  There is plenty of faith at leaving the secondary alone to handle business in the back.  McMaryion did a good job of exactly what was thought he couldn’t do.  He played within himself, and he kept the Bulldogs on schedule.  On expected passing downs, Fresno State was terrible, among the worst in FBS in terms of S&P+, but were an average offense.  How?  They simply avoided expected passing downs.  The defense was probably the best in program history.  It’s tough to match “best in program history” no matter what, but for a defense that was led by line play, simply expecting them to flip to being led from the back up, and lose nothing, is some amount of blind faith.  More likely is that the offense improves again, to maybe being a top 30-40 offense, and negate any defensive regression.
Key Players

QB		Marcus McMaryion, Senior
WR		KeeSean Johnson, Senior
T		Christian Cronk, Senior
	.
LB		Jeffrey Allison, Junior
CB		Jaron Bryant, Junior
S		Mike Bell, Junior

[Cincydawg]

Cincinnati and Laville once were rivals and about on par, then UC got into the Big East and attracted better recruits and did well, and then the BE disappeared and they were left hanging while Laville got into the ACC (somehow, the academic fit isn't good at all).  A P5 program has huge recruiting advantages, and UL of course has large checkbooks as well.

UC seems fated to be a rather distant also ran program akin to Miami (O) and Ohio U. and Akron.

[ELA]

Cincinnati and Laville once were rivals and about on par, then UC got into the Big East and attracted better recruits and did well, and then the BE disappeared and they were left hanging while Laville got into the ACC (somehow, the academic fit isn't good at all).  A P5 program has huge recruiting advantages, and UL of course has large checkbooks as well.

UC seems fated to be a rather distant also ran program akin to Miami (O) and Ohio U. and Akron.

Yeah, it's weird how that worked out.  The ACC passed on WVU due to academics, then panicked and took Louisville later.  WVU would be better off of the Big XII hadn't wanted them, they would've backed into the ACC like Louisville did.

[Cincydawg]

I wouldn't say UL is any better at academics than WVU.  The ACC can lay claim to having rather good academics especially at the undergrad level, to the extent that is relevant in an athletic conference (I never really saw that personally but I live in SECland of course).

Does it help UL academically to be in the ACC versus the Big 12?  Does it hurt Vandy to be in the SEC?

The Rutgers/UMd move was predicated on money from athletics, and perhaps recruiting a bit.

[Brutus Buckeye]

Cincinnati and Laville once were rivals and about on par, then UC got into the Big East and attracted better recruits and did well, and then the BE disappeared and they were left hanging while Laville got into the ACC (somehow, the academic fit isn't good at all).  A P5 program has huge recruiting advantages, and UL of course has large checkbooks as well.

UC seems fated to be a rather distant also ran program akin to Miami (O) and Ohio U. and Akron.

The dynamic between Cincinnati and Miami was interesting, as they are in neighboring counties and play every year. Before Cincy went to the Big East, they were out recruited by Miami, who had a strong foothold in the burbs, and the Catholic schools while Cincy recruited mostly urban players. When the Bearcats moved up to the Big East all of a sudden everyone wanted to go there instead of Miami. The Redhawks had some really lean years, to put it mildly, while Cincy was just rolling through the Big East. Now that the Bearcats have had the P5 rug yanked out from under them, the recruiting paradigm is slowly returning back to equilibrium. 
It is really evident when looking at their scores against each other. Miami beat the Bearcats more often than not in the Victory Bell series up until UC joined the Big East. Then there was a long stretch of games where the Bearcats were just blowing out the Redhawks by gigantic margins. After the demotion Cincy has managed to keep the win streak going, but the last four games have been by a TD or less, with a few miracle finishes at the Redhawks' expense. 

[Cincydawg]

Yeah, UC is a great example of how being P5 helps recruiting a lot.  Duh.  I suppose if you are P5 and lose consistently it diminishes the advantage, but you're still much more often on ESPN etc. than an Akron.

I knew a big UC fan who told me two years ago that the Big 12 was definitely going to offer UC a slot, but of course that did not happen.  I think the UL offer by the ACC was from desperation.

[ELA]

I wouldn't say UL is any better at academics than WVU.  The ACC can lay claim to having rather good academics especially at the undergrad level, to the extent that is relevant in an athletic conference (I never really saw that personally but I live in SECland of course).

Does it help UL academically to be in the ACC versus the Big 12?  Does it hurt Vandy to be in the SEC?

The Rutgers/UMd move was predicated on money from athletics, and perhaps recruiting a bit.

No, that's my point.  When the ACC wasnt desperate they could reject WVU on academic grounds, and WVU went to the Big XII.  Then, after the Big Ten took Maryland, they were a little more uneasy and suddenly the academic concerns weren't such a big deal in adding Louisville.  That WVU kind of got screwed out of ACC membership by being more desirable than Louisville.  That because they were, the Big XII took them, not Louy, so when the ACC circled back, they were off the table, but Louisville was sitting there.

[Cincydawg]

Yup, the ACC probably should have bided their time, but they felt the pressure and at that time folks were talking about 16 team superconferences.

One thing I like about CFB is how irregular it is.  I prefer 12 team conferences and would like a rule that each team has to play 10 P5 teams a year.

[ELA]

Yeah, UC is a great example of how being P5 helps recruiting a lot.  Duh.  I suppose if you are P5 and lose consistently it diminishes the advantage, but you're still much more often on ESPN etc. than an Akron.

I knew a big UC fan who told me two years ago that the Big 12 was definitely going to offer UC a slot, but of course that did not happen.  I think the UL offer by the ACC was from desperation.

Yeah, we had that debate with regards to Purdue recruiting a couple years ago, when someone said they were recruiting at a mid MAC level.  It wasn't true.  I think over a four year period they never placed higher than #12 in the Big Ten.  But even that was the best class in the MAC 3 of those 4 years, and #2 the other year.  So even being the worst Big Ten recruiting team is still better than being in the MAC.  Granted, the Big East, by the time Cincinnati got there was probably a tier below in recruiting.

[ELA]

37. Purdue Boilermakers

#8 in Big Ten

No matter what happens, 2018 already feels like a success, simply because Jeff Brohm is still on the sidelines.  After a pair of lackluster hires took every bit of the steam out of what Joe Tiller had built (and then sort of helped deconstruct by sticking around too long), there was some actual juice surrounding the Brohm hire.  But the results surpassed even the loftiest expectations, in getting the Boilermakers into a bowl.  Lets face it, he didn’t really do it his way.  He just allowed the program to get out of its own way.  He’s an offensive guy, and the offense was in a lot of ways worse than it was in Hazell’s first year.  What he inherited was a sneaky loaded defense, and he, and defensive coordinator Nick Holt, actually had it playing at its potential.  The result was Purdue, yes Purdue, had eight of its 11 defensive starters named to either the AP or Coaches All-Big Ten team, or both.  The problem now is that six of those eight either graduated or left early for the NFL.  So while the defense is starting over, it’s time for Brohm to live up to his offensive wiz reputation with an offense returning nine starters.  That’s not including the fact that the return two quarterbacks with extensive experience.  The problem is that neither is fully healthy.  Blough surprised by being able to play at all in the spring, but Sindelar won’t return from ACL surgery until the fall, and it’s unclear if he’s going to be ready to start fall practice.  So why are both listed below?  Because as far as skill position players go, none really separated themselves.  Purdue’s leading rusher averaged 56 yards per game.  Their leading receiver?  3 catches for 52 yards per game.  They have lots of contributors, but nobody who separated themselves.  Perhaps Tario Fuller can be that guy.  Fuller had 266 yards and 2 touchdowns over back to back games against Ohio and Missouri in September, and then missed the rest of the season with an injury.  Or maybe it’s Markell Jones, who did finish as the team’s leading rusher, but rather unimpressively until accounting for over 300 yards over their final two games.  I’ll give Brohm some slack, he was trying to figure out how to patchwork together an offense from what he was left, but with what should be a much improved offensive line leading the way, I expect this group to really find their identity and lead.  I’ll right now say this group finishes top 3 in the league in total offense.  Is that enough to compensate for what could be drastic drop from the defense?  That will likely be the difference between another 7/8 win type season and just being a really entertaining 5 win team that stays home after the Bucket game.
Key Players

QB		David Blough, Senior
QB		Elijah Sindelar, Junior
C		Kirk Barron, Senior
	.
DT		Lorenzo Neal, Junior
S		Jacob Thieneman, Senior
P		Joe Schopper, Senior