~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

[ELA]

Start it with some recruiting news, WI PF Joey Hauser, who had MSU and Wisconsin in his final 3, chose Marquette over the weekend.  They were the favorites all along.

I think Wojo is actually doing a decent job there.  Funny, after years of nothing but failed former assistants, looks like two potential Coach K replacements from within the tree are blossoming simultaneously in Wojo and Collins.

[847badgerfan]

Had Bo Ryan (or Tom Izzo) taken his brother, Joey would be a Badger (or Spartan) today.

That is the bottom line and it was the same thing with the Ellenson brothers.

[Anonymous Coward]

It sounds like Moe Wagner keeps developing. Germany was middle of the pack in the FIBA U-20 European Championships, but Mo led the team in points (16.1 pts) and rebounds (5.3 rbs).

[betarhoalphadelta]

This is more of a 2018 recruiting thing, but Jaelin Llewellen (sp?), PG who held offers from several B1G schools [including Purdue] and several ACC schools, has committed to Princeton.

Sounds like a smart young man, and you can't exactly blame someone for wanting a diploma from Princeton, but I still wish he'd have brought those smarts to West Lafayette lol...

[Anonymous Coward]

It sounds like Moe Wagner keeps developing. Germany was middle of the pack in the FIBA U-20 European Championships, but Mo led the team in points (16.1 pts) and rebounds (5.3 rbs).

And then I realized that this league probably has a lower level of competition than the Big Ten and decided to call it a big nothing burger.

[ELA]

At what point do you realize your metric is garbage and go back to the lab?


Apparently OSU is in for a big season, and Purdue is going to be better without Swanigan


http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/20163677/surprise-experienced-wichita-state-shockers-top-summer-bpi-update

[betarhoalphadelta]

At what point do you realize your metric is garbage and go back to the lab?


Apparently OSU is in for a big season, and Purdue is going to be better without Swanigan


http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/20163677/surprise-experienced-wichita-state-shockers-top-summer-bpi-update

Well yes, it's a garbage metric.

That said, I see some ways that Purdue as a team may improve. Swanigan was an elite player, and he will be missed, but there were times that Purdue tried to force things through Biggie because he was that good. And there were times that he couldn't play defense because he was too valuable to the team to get into foul trouble. Purdue will be a more balanced team next year.

Purdue will have 4 seniors who have all played extensive minutes their whole careers. Carsen Edwards will be more reliable as a sophomore (and with FIBA U19 experience under Calipari). Purdue is bringing in Juco and freshmen players with great athleticism, which should allow us to have some very interesting matchup options. Purdue might again have the best frontcourt in the conference despite losing Swanigan, and I would expect our guard play to improve relative to 2016-17.

This team would be better this year if we had all those things I just mentioned PLUS Swanigan than without Swanigan. However, this 2017-18 team without Swanigan might end up better than the 2016-17 team was with him.

[bayareabadger]

At what point do you realize your metric is garbage and go back to the lab?


Apparently OSU is in for a big season, and Purdue is going to be better without Swanigan


http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/20163677/surprise-experienced-wichita-state-shockers-top-summer-bpi-update

You know I love me some metrics, and while I don't have much love for BPI, I think this particular complaint is interesting and worth meditating on.

I'm assuming you're not earth-shatteringly mad at the Shockers (maybe you are), but I'll look at the Purdue and OSU things.

Purdue: They return just shy of 80 percent of their minutes. I think Biggie was damn good, but I also wouldn't be blown away if a super seasoned team could be that good or better. I saw UW get better without Alando Tucker. MSU took a slight step back when it lost Green, plus another two starters from his last team. It also stands to reason Purdue is over-ranked because BPI might not put enough emphasis on starz and too much on returning players (thus hurting one-and-done-reliant teams). Of course, fans might also put too much emphasis on the biggest names, but who knows?

OSU: This one seemed weird. OSU probably didn't move up in coach given their metric, lost a lot of the roster, isn't bringing in five-stars. But then I read closer, and they really should emphasize this: "One factor not considered in preseason BPI 1.0 is transfers." So that projection assumes OSU is returning seven rotation players and adding a pair of four-stars, losing only Thompson and Loving. If that was the case, a jump from the mid-60s to 30 is not all that illogical.

Now all this asks a larger question of metrics-based projections, what do we want from them? Do we want them to about reflect our preconceived narratives? Because if we do, why would we have them? I suppose they did their job, providing something different and making us salty they don't match what we think (granted we can't often agree about how we think things will go). In theory they're supposed to give a reasonable guess of what's to come, but even if it's a really good guess, chances are it will look different enough from the final product that you can nitpick if you so choose. Seasons are long and weird with so many moving pieces. What makes a preseason projection particularly meaningful and not garbage?

(I guess I look at a computer ranking and when something is weird, I don't say, "Ah-HA, wrong." I ask why. And the why usually ends up being at least interesting)

[ELA]

You know I love me some metrics, and while I don't have much love for BPI, I think this particular complaint is interesting and worth meditating on.

I'm assuming you're not earth-shatteringly mad at the Shockers (maybe you are), but I'll look at the Purdue and OSU things.

Purdue: They return just shy of 80 percent of their minutes. I think Biggie was damn good, but I also wouldn't be blown away if a super seasoned team could be that good or better. I saw UW get better without Alando Tucker. MSU took a slight step back when it lost Green, plus another two starters from his last team. It also stands to reason Purdue is over-ranked because BPI might not put enough emphasis on starz and too much on returning players (thus hurting one-and-done-reliant teams). Of course, fans might also put too much emphasis on the biggest names, but who knows?

OSU: This one seemed weird. OSU probably didn't move up in coach given their metric, lost a lot of the roster, isn't bringing in five-stars. But then I read closer, and they really should emphasize this: "One factor not considered in preseason BPI 1.0 is transfers." So that projection assumes OSU is returning seven rotation players and adding a pair of four-stars, losing only Thompson and Loving. If that was the case, a jump from the mid-60s to 30 is not all that illogical.

Now all this asks a larger question of metrics-based projections, what do we want from them? Do we want them to about reflect our preconceived narratives? Because if we do, why would we have them? I suppose they did their job, providing something different and making us salty they don't match what we think (granted we can't often agree about how we think things will go). In theory they're supposed to give a reasonable guess of what's to come, but even if it's a really good guess, chances are it will look different enough from the final product that you can nitpick if you so choose. Seasons are long and weird with so many moving pieces. What makes a preseason projection particularly meaningful and not garbage?

(I guess I look at a computer ranking and when something is weird, I don't say, "Ah-HA, wrong." I ask why. And the why usually ends up being at least interesting)

It was really the OSU thing that jumped out at me.  I don't want it to merely mirror back my preconceived notions.  This has MSU lower than pretty much anywhere else, and there I do want to see why, more out of curiosity and whether expectations need to be tempered.  But with the OSU thing, it jumped out as so oddly indefensible that I couldn't think of any sort of meaningful input that would result in OSU being vastly improved this year.

Does it give any insight as to why transfers don't count?  That seems like an odd and unnecessary thing to omit.

[betarhoalphadelta]

They say transfers don't count... What about early entrants to the NBA? If they're assuming Biggie couldn't have transferred away, are they also assuming he didn't leave for the NBA?

[bayareabadger]

It was really the OSU thing that jumped out at me.  I don't want it to merely mirror back my preconceived notions.  This has MSU lower than pretty much anywhere else, and there I do want to see why, more out of curiosity and whether expectations need to be tempered.  But with the OSU thing, it jumped out as so oddly indefensible that I couldn't think of any sort of meaningful input that would result in OSU being vastly improved this year.

Does it give any insight as to why transfers don't count?  That seems like an odd and unnecessary thing to omit.

My bet would be the first version doesn't, but they are accounted for later once rosters are set. Transfers are a big headache for numerical projections. It might be as simple as not having the back end for rosters update until a certain point. But as I read it, those will factor in at some point, just not with the first one.

[bayareabadger]

They say transfers don't count... What about early entrants to the NBA? If they're assuming Biggie couldn't have transferred away, are they also assuming he didn't leave for the NBA?

Probably comes down to draft being a finite thing with an easy list, while transfers are more sprawling.

[MichiFan87]

Michigan raided Illinois State for its two new assistant coaches. DeAndre Haynes was a guard at Kent State in their heyday 10-15 years ago. Luke Yaklich is apparently a defensive-minded guy.... Obviously the timing wasn't ideal since it all happened in the aftermath of Matta's resignation, but I think it worked out okay, all things considered.

[grillrat]

....and the single play schedules have come out for the coming year.


....and yet AGAIN, Purdue and IU only play once (@IU).




....UN.....Bleeping.....Believable.