2019 Senseless Recruiting Jibberish

[847badgerfan]

I think there are like 25 5* players and 200 4* players every year. We have 65 +/- P5 schools competing for those kids. Every year the same 10-15 (or so) schools get 10-15 (or so) of these kids, and the other 50-55 schools are left with the rest.


This year UW has 6 4* kids, so far, and one 5*. That is the most they've ever had in one cycle. We'll see what they do with those kids.

[ELA]

can't stress how HUGE of a pick-up Daxton Hill is. He's a 5*, top 10 player nationally and the #1 safety. Freak athlete. Ran a laser timed 4.3 flat at The Opening at 6'1.5 and 187 pounds. Vertical leaped 44" as well. Could play CB or FS. He is exactly the type of athlete that Don Brown needs at safety- seeing as how Brown leaves his free safety in man coverage for basically 99% of the defensive snaps.

Michigan hasn't landed a safety prospect this good since Jabrill Peppers in that 2014 class. Hill has that same kind of talent. Future 1st round pick just like Peppers.

Michigan also has a really good shot at maybe the #1 player in the country in Zach Harrison. Harrison is an absolute freak. 6'5+, 240+ and runs a 4.47. Laser timed at The Opening. They pull that off- holy cow would the have quite the defensive 5* trifecta. They'd have the most freakish weakside DE prospect in the land, the most freakish SDE prospect in Chris Hinton Jr., and the most freakish safety prospect in Dax Hill. Now that's how you build a defense.


edit: btw- with Hill's commitment it pushes Michigan up to #7th ranked class in the nation in the 247Composite and #1 in the B1G. The class is currently ranked #4 in the nation in 247's own rankings.

Flipped to Bama

[Anonymous Coward]

Oh yeah, and it's a devastating one. There's literally no one in the country (committed elsewhere or not) as good, we passed on a lot of lesser but high end kids because he joined up, and of course this was the only real weakness in Don Brown's defense. So the emotional high of getting him deserved itself.

That's what DB gets for not responding versus OSU, though. Again: he's a great DC, but this is his limitation. He can design and coach an elite defense. And if he's merely out-schemed to a small to "semi-large" degree by an opponent, he's a master at adapting/tweaking within the confines of his initial plan and shutting them diown.

Howeverrrr, if his group is entirely unready (in scheme), he refuses to design a completely new defense. That's only happened twice in 3 years (PSU-17, OSU-18). And he's still had 3 top 5 national defenses in 3 years. So this is obviously not the worst problem. But whereas it might not, per se, reduce Michigan's ceiling under Harbaugh, it certainly wastes chances for them to reach a ceiling they haven't touched.

Against OSU, Michigan's defense had three easily schemeable issues, but two of them required an entire rewriting of the defense, which was a bridge too far for DB's brain. We all get that. They entered that game with the nation's runaway #1 statistical D. Such a group probably shouldn't expect to get so punched in the mouth that they have to entirely change, but still:

• Rewriting of the defense: Go zone (because although DBs one and two are handling their guy, DB #3 is a gaping wound in man coverage)
• Rewriting of the defense: Blitz (because suddenly a 4-man rush is insufficient)
• Personnel: Replace BWat with Ambry. Stop giving Gil 50% of Ross's snaps.

That may not win the game, but it certainly won't lead to the 62. And likely not the loss of this class's crown jewel.

[ELA]

I think you are over thinking it.  I think if UM loses 3-0 he still flips.  I think at some point it's not about scheme, it's that if you are going to recruit against programs like Alabama and Oklahoma recruits can't keep seeing those teams in the playoffs while Michigan is not

[Anonymous Coward]

I don't think so. This is out of nowhere. If 3-0 were to do it, I suspect we'd have known for some time to be worried. That's my gamble, at least.

[Mdot21]

I think you are over thinking it.  I think if UM loses 3-0 he still flips.  I think at some point it's not about scheme, it's that if you are going to recruit against programs like Alabama and Oklahoma recruits can't keep seeing those teams in the playoffs while Michigan is not

bingo.
Harbaugh is NEVER going to land elite top 10 kids in the nation like this if he keeps losing to Ohio State and missing the playoffs. Guarantee you if Michigan beats OSU in 2016 and this season and wins the B1G CG and is in the playoffs both those years this kid doesn't flip.
DEVASTATING blow to this recruiting class, yet ANOTHER indictment on Harbaugh, and frankly just another chink in the already damaged armor.
I really don't think Harbaugh will last much longer at Michigan. I just don't see him having the kind of success that Michigan is paying him for unless he's willing to give up full control of the offense and really evolve and change. And I just can't see him doing that.
He'll be here a few more years and then back to the NFL.

[Anonymous Coward]

Warde won't fire him and he clearly doesn't want to leave. Tell me why I shouldn't want it that way. Of those who'd certainly take the job, who is *obviously* a better candidate?

[Mdot21]

Warde won't fire him and he clearly doesn't want to leave. Tell me why I shouldn't want it that way. Of those who'd certainly take the job, who is *obviously* a better candidate?

Not sure Michigan can do better. There are only two truly elite coaches in college.
Nick Saban and Urban are the only truly elite coaches in the college game.  Also happen to be the two best recruiters. Nick ain’t going anywhere and Urban is done maybe for good. If he comes back it’ll be his last go round and he ain’t coming back to Michigan.
I just don’t see Harbaugh giving up control of his dog shit offenses and hiring someone innovative from outside his comfort zone that will really take that offense and program up to the next level. That and that alone is going to do him in. The losing to OSU and not making the playoff and coming up short is going to wear on both sides and they’ll eventually just mutually part ways imo.

[ELA]

3* DE Darius Robinson, who was presumed to be a heavy MSU lean, had his friend post a video showing him dunking, and introcuing him as an MSU commit?

That moment when your buddy blows your silent verbal, and ruins your moment.

Sounds like he slow played it too much and lost his offer to Minnesota decommit M.J. Anderson from St. Louis.

[ELA]

Sounds like he slow played it too much and lost his offer to Minnesota decommit M.J. Anderson from St. Louis.

Or Keith Randolph from IL who was thought to be down to Iowa or Illinois, but took his first official this past weekend, and it was to MSU.

[betarhoalphadelta]

I just don't see him having the kind of success that Michigan is paying him for unless he's willing to give up full control of the offense and really evolve and change. 

I'm not sure that's really all that big of a deal. I don't know that I 100% buy this argument.
So they're paying him a LOT of money, yes. But it's not like he's putting terrible teams out every year. They're right on the cusp of B1G championships. They just can't get over the hump.
But what is Michigan going to do? Get some cheap up-and-comer, and be happy for the same [or slightly worse] performance for half the cost? Budget doesn't make a difference here. 
If they were to fire Harbaugh, it would have to be some can't-miss coaching prospect, so undoubtedly they'd be paying in the same ballpark amount of money they're paying him. That might be an option if you can prove that Michigan is truly underperforming to a large degree. 
Harbaugh's win percentage is right around the same level as Carr and Moeller so far, and none of them are all that far behind Bo. 
I personally think they stand pat here, ESPECIALLY now that Urban is gone and he has a much higher probability of beating OSU. 

[Mdot21]

I'm not sure that's really all that big of a deal. I don't know that I 100% buy this argument.
So they're paying him a LOT of money, yes. But it's not like he's putting terrible teams out every year. They're right on the cusp of B1G championships. They just can't get over the hump.
But what is Michigan going to do? Get some cheap up-and-comer, and be happy for the same [or slightly worse] performance for half the cost? Budget doesn't make a difference here.
If they were to fire Harbaugh, it would have to be some can't-miss coaching prospect, so undoubtedly they'd be paying in the same ballpark amount of money they're paying him. That might be an option if you can prove that Michigan is truly underperforming to a large degree.
Harbaugh's win percentage is right around the same level as Carr and Moeller so far, and none of them are all that far behind Bo.
I personally think they stand pat here, ESPECIALLY now that Urban is gone and he has a much higher probability of beating OSU.

The reality of the situation is they have to pay him what they do or he'll be in the NFL. The guy is the most sought after coach in the NFL circles. EVERY DAMN TIME there is an NFL job open, his name is linked to it. Apparently the Packers GM is in love with Harbaugh and wants him. Doubt Rodgers would love that marriage, but apparently Mike Murphy wants Harbaugh.
Of course they are going to stand pat. I said before I don't think he ever gets fired. I think it'll just come to the point where he gets tired of not beating Ohio State and the fan backlash that comes with it- and that he'll just say whatever and go off to the NFL. Because as long as he keeps winning 10 games a year at Michigan, an NFL job will be there waiting whenever the hell he wants it.
Don't get me wrong. The guy has done a heckuva turnaround job. Michigan was a dumpster fire before he got here. An absolute dumpster fire. He's turned it around in a big way, but not all the way. At Michigan, it's all about beating Ohio State. Part of the reason Carr stuck around so long despite going 9-3 and 8-4 all the time is because he would pretty much always beat Ohio State at the end of the year. After they hired Tressell and that started to change is ONLY when Carr really started to feel the heat. Carr retired- but he was basically pushed out because he couldn't beat Ohio State and Jim Tressel. It's all about beating Ohio State. And Jim hasn't done that. Not sure he will consistently unless he evolves and changes the offense and gives up some control to a legit OC. Not a loser like Pep Hamilton that made Andrew Luck look bad  and got fired by the Colts because Luck regressed under him, and then went to the Browns and got fired again. Think about how hard that is to do- make Andrew Luck look like crap- you have to be a real shit coach to do that. Well, Pep Hamilton did that.
But they aren't paying him like an NFL coach at almost $9 million a year in total compensation to win 10 games a year. They are paying him that kind of money to beat Ohio State and make the playoff. Hasn't beaten Ohio State and hasn't made the playoff once in 4 years. You don't make that kind of scratch to put out the product and record he does.

[Anonymous Coward]

Although we can have talks about expectations of output for a given salary, the truth is that many salaries, including that of the Michigan HC, are based more on the institution than the person filling it.
Harbaugh makes more than Hoke who made more than Carr whose income beat out Bo. Whoever comes after Harbaugh, no matter their pedigree or output, will make as much or more (unless CFB's unsustainable salary structures finally crumble across the country).
Because it's not based on who they are but where they work. And for Harbaugh, that place of work began with high prestige then, like many P5 ADs, began experiencing a multi decade financial windfall to top it off. At which point, Michigan is already getting exactly what it's paying for.
So if you want to be grumpy with Harbaugh, fine, but his salary should be irrelevant to that conversation. 

[FearlessF]

fans like to expect a top 10 or top 5 product if the coach top 10 in getting paid