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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on August 06, 2018, 08:58:17 AM

Title: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 06, 2018, 08:58:17 AM
Can't believe how close we are.

I'll use the already released coaches poll as a starting point, as it's probably the closest indicator to how the AP Poll will start, and what they say in August will probably be sort of close to the CFP rankings.

RkLW
1.Alabama0-0-
2.Clemson0-0-
3.OHIO STATE0-0-
4.Georgia0-0-
5.Oklahoma0-0-
6.Washington0-0-
7.WISCONSIN0-0-
8.Miami0-0-
9.PENN STATE0-0-
10.Auburn0-0-
11.Notre Dame0-0-
12.MICHIGAN STATE0-0-
13.Stanford0-0-
14.MICHIGAN0-0-
15.USC0-0-
16.TCU0-0-
17.Virginia Tech0-0-
18.Mississippi State0-0-
19.Florida State0-0-
20.West Virginia0-0-
21.Texas0-0-
22.Boise State0-0-
23.Central Florida0-0-
24.LSU0-0-
25.Oklahoma State0-0-

WEEK 0
Saturday, August 25
Colorado State d. Hawaii
Massachusetts d. Duquesne
Rice d. Prairie View
Wyoming d. NM State
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 06, 2018, 02:28:50 PM
WEEK 1
Thursday, August 30


Friday, August 31


Saturday, September 1
ESPN College Gameday, live from South Bend, IN
#11 Notre Dame 27, #14 MICHIGAN 21



Sunday, September 2

Monday, September 3
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Cincydawg on August 06, 2018, 03:42:19 PM
Can Appy State do it again?

MTSU obviously could beat Vandy.

NIU and Iowa?  Possible.

UDubb and Auburn is interesting, perhaps the top game of the week?
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 06, 2018, 05:03:23 PM
ACC
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CONFERENCE USA
EAST
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MAC
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INDEPENDENTS
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 06, 2018, 05:26:22 PM
September 4 Poll
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 07, 2018, 09:08:53 AM
WEEK 2
Friday, September 7

Saturday, September 8
ESPN College Gameday live from Palo Alto, CA
#12 Stanford 31, #14 USC 26


Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: rolltidefan on August 07, 2018, 09:37:41 AM
2 big upsets in week 2. i like it.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 07, 2018, 01:10:49 PM
ACC
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MAC
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INDEPENDENTS
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 07, 2018, 02:12:21 PM
September 10 Poll
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 08, 2018, 10:57:20 AM
WEEK 3
Thursday, September 13

Friday, September 14
Saturday, September 15
ESPN College Gameday, live from Arlington, TX
#3 OHIO STATE 34, #14 TCU 24


Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: FearlessF on August 08, 2018, 12:24:51 PM
whooo hoooo 3-0 start for Coach Frost!
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 08, 2018, 02:45:00 PM
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MAC
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INDEPENDENTS
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: rolltidefan on August 08, 2018, 04:41:01 PM
rough week for pac12.

wash, usc, asu and ucla all going down to non-conf foes. putting all hopes on stanford again.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 08, 2018, 05:15:51 PM
September 17 Poll
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 08, 2018, 05:19:43 PM
rough week for pac12.

wash, usc, asu and ucla all going down to non-conf foes. putting all hopes on stanford again.
Washington's loss was to Utah, which now announced themselves as a player in the conference race.  They have trips to Pullman and Palo Alto the next two weeks.  Get through that, and the Utes become a real CFP contender.  Oregon, Cal, Arizona and Washington State are all still undefeated too, against meh schedules.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: rolltidefan on August 08, 2018, 05:50:05 PM
Washington's loss was to Utah, which now announced themselves as a player in the conference race.  They have trips to Pullman and Palo Alto the next two weeks.  Get through that, and the Utes become a real CFP contender.  Oregon, Cal, Arizona and Washington State are all still undefeated too, against meh schedules.
doh, i'm an idiot.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Cincydawg on August 08, 2018, 05:50:59 PM
This kinda spoils the season for me.  It's as if I don't need to watch anything.  It's like watching 2017 games.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 09, 2018, 10:30:54 AM
WEEK 4
Thursday, September 20

Friday, September 21


Saturday, September 22
ESPN College Gameday, live from Morgantown, WV
#23 West Virginia 31, #22 Kansas State 30


Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 09, 2018, 12:36:06 PM
ACC
ATLANTIC
COASTAL

BIG TEN
EAST
WEST

BIG XII

PAC 12
NORTH
SOUTH

SEC
EAST
WEST

AMERICAN
EAST
WEST

CONFERENCE USA
EAST
WEST

MAC
EAST
WEST

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN
WEST

SUN BELT
EAST
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INDEPENDENTS
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Entropy on August 09, 2018, 12:57:49 PM
Ask LSU how easy it is to play Troy.   I could see an emotional win vs Colorado and a let down vs Troy, especially if UNL starts a freshman QB
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Entropy on August 09, 2018, 12:58:41 PM
I also think Michigan will beat UNL, but I think this is the game people begin to see UNL as on the rise (not 2018, but going forward).   I expect they'll play well
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 09, 2018, 01:22:36 PM
Ask LSU how easy it is to play Troy.   I could see an emotional win vs Colorado and a let down vs Troy, especially if UNL starts a freshman QB
This Troy isn't nearly as good as last year's version.  They lost all of their starting skill positions players, and 6 starters from a defense that carried them, top 20 nationally in S&P+.  Somehow nobody hired Neal Brown, but that's about the only thing they have going for them going into 2018.  I think Nebraska is still trying to figure out enough stuff that maybe they make some mistakes.  But I still think HUskers win.

My off the cuff pick: Nebraska 31, Troy 23

I also think Michigan will beat UNL, but I think this is the game people begin to see UNL as on the rise (not 2018, but going forward).   I expect they'll play well
Here I disagree, new, young offense, going on the road for the first time, against THAT defense?  And while Harbaugh's struggles against good teams are well documented, his teams have consistently handled the teams they should.  Not just not lose, but not even really be in danger of losing.  Somehow Indiana is the exception there, giving him trouble three times, but aside from the Hoosiers.
Michigan 35, Nebraska 15
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 09, 2018, 01:36:40 PM
September 24 Poll
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: FearlessF on August 09, 2018, 02:33:06 PM
Ask LSU how easy it is to play Troy.   I could see an emotional win vs Colorado and a let down vs Troy, especially if UNL starts a freshman QB
Since Transfer QB Noah Vedral won't pursue waiver for immediate eligibility, it could be worse if Frost doesn't start a freshman
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 10, 2018, 09:56:40 AM
WEEK 5
Thursday, September 27

Friday, September 28

Saturday, September 29
ESPN College Gameday, live from State College, PA
#8 PENN STATE 34, #3 OHIO STATE 31


Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Entropy on August 10, 2018, 10:16:57 AM
This Troy isn't nearly as good as last year's version.  They lost all of their starting skill positions players, and 6 starters from a defense that carried them, top 20 nationally in S&P+.  Somehow nobody hired Neal Brown, but that's about the only thing they have going for them going into 2018.  I think Nebraska is still trying to figure out enough stuff that maybe they make some mistakes.  But I still think HUskers win.

My off the cuff pick: Nebraska 31, Troy 23
Here I disagree, new, young offense, going on the road for the first time, against THAT defense?  And while Harbaugh's struggles against good teams are well documented, his teams have consistently handled the teams they should.  Not just not lose, but not even really be in danger of losing.  Somehow Indiana is the exception there, giving him trouble three times, but aside from the Hoosiers.
Michigan 35, Nebraska 15
all good thoughts.   Maybe its hope, but young teams like to play to their competition.   Maybe it's hope on my part, but I could see a UNL have that up and down season.   Young team, new system, new staff...  They will look both better and worse than their true team performance level. 
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Entropy on August 10, 2018, 10:18:02 AM
UNL losing to Purdue at home (outside of injuries) would be as welcomed as Riley losing at Illinois.   Even with Frost as the coach...
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 10, 2018, 10:34:45 AM
WEEK 5
Saturday, September 29
ESPN College Gameday, live from State College, PA
#8 PENN STATE 34, #3 OHIO STATE 31
It is interesting how your projections make this even bigger than it appears presently.  With Michigan (ND) and Michigan State (ASU) losing OOC and Wisconsin (IA) losing a conference game, Penn State and Ohio State would be the only two B1G teams to start ranked and still be undefeated heading into the final weekend of September.  
What a two game stretch for the Nittany Lions.  They host Ohio State on September 29 then get a week off before hosting Michigan State on October 13.  If Penn State wins both they could nearly lock up the B1G-E depending on how Michigan does against Wisconsin.  The Wolverines host Penn State and Wisconsin but play the Spartans and Buckeyes on the road.  If PSU gets to 6-0 then they would win the B1G-E so long as either:

All that the Buckeyes and Spartans could do is to watch, wait, and hope Penn State loses twice.  
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 10, 2018, 01:56:04 PM
ACC
ATLANTIC
COASTAL

BIG TEN
EAST
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BIG XII

PAC 12
NORTH
SOUTH

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AMERICAN
EAST
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CONFERENCE USA
EAST
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MAC
EAST
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MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN
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SUN BELT
EAST
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INDEPENDENTS
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 10, 2018, 03:52:54 PM
September 30 Poll
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 13, 2018, 09:03:47 AM
WEEK 6
Thursday, October 4

Friday, October 5

Saturday, October 6
ESPN College Gameday, live from Miami, FL
#4 Miami 27, #10 Florida State 17


Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 13, 2018, 10:43:50 AM
ACC
ATLANTIC
COASTAL

BIG TEN
EAST
WEST

BIG XII

PAC 12
NORTH
SOUTH

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CONFERENCE USA
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MAC
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MOUNTAIN
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SUN BELT
EAST
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INDEPENDENTS
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 13, 2018, 11:49:44 AM
BIG TEN
EAST
  • Penn State (2-0) 5-0 (beat IL and tOSU) B1G-W opponents:  IL, IA, UW
  • Michigan State (2-0) 4-1 (beat IU and NU, lost OOC to ASU) B1G-W opponents:  NU, PU, UNL
  • Ohio State (2-1) 5-1 (beat RU and IU, lost to PSU) B1G-W opponents:  MN, PU, UNL
  • Michigan (2-1) 4-2 (beat UNL and UMD, lost to NU, lost OOC to ND) B1G-W opponents:  UNL, NU, UW
  • Maryland (1-1) 3-2 (beat MN, lost to M, lost OOC to TX) B1G-W opponents:  MN, IA, IL
  • Indiana (1-2) 4-2 (beat RU, lost to MSU and tOSU) B1G-W opponents:  IA, MN, PU
  • Rutgers (1-2) 4-2 (beat IL, lost to tOSU and IU) B1G-W opponents:  IL, NU, UW
Obviously Ohio State would lose a two-team tie with PSU based on H2H.  Per the B1G website (http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/archive/081011aaa.html), here is the B1GCG tiebreaking procedure for a multiple team tie:
In a three-team tie where the three teams each went 1-1 against each other and beat everyone else #1, #2, #3, and #4 would be irrelevant and it would be decided based either on cumulative winning % of non-divisional opponents or who played (and beat) the best team in the other division.  

In this hypothetical that makes it nearly impossible for Ohio State to win any tie involving Penn State.  
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 13, 2018, 05:01:06 PM
October 7 Poll
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: TyphonInc on August 13, 2018, 11:32:37 PM
In this hypothetical that makes it nearly impossible for Ohio State to win any tie involving Penn State.  
Getting "eliminated" form B1G title in September is foreign to this generation of Buckeyes. Guess we have to beat those dern lions in Happy Valley. 
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 14, 2018, 10:26:58 AM
Getting "eliminated" form B1G title in September is foreign to this generation of Buckeyes. Guess we have to beat those dern lions in Happy Valley.
You inferred this with your use of quotation marks but obviously the Buckeyes would not be mathematically eliminated anywhere near that early in this scenario.  The problem is that the Buckeyes would need a lot of things to break exactly their way because they could not win a two-way tie with Penn State and they more than likely couldn't win a three-way tie involving Penn State either.  
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 14, 2018, 02:32:18 PM
You inferred this with your use of quotation marks but obviously the Buckeyes would not be mathematically eliminated anywhere near that early in this scenario.  The problem is that the Buckeyes would need a lot of things to break exactly their way because they could not win a two-way tie with Penn State and they more than likely couldn't win a three-way tie involving Penn State either.  
Penn State still has MSU, UM and Wisconsin to play.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 14, 2018, 03:41:10 PM
WEEK 7
Tuesday, October 9

Thursday, October 11

Friday, October 12


Saturday, October 13
ESPN College Gameday, live from State College, PA
#5 PENN STATE 24, #11 MICHIGAN STATE 23


Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Entropy on August 14, 2018, 03:42:16 PM
it would appear you don't have UNL bowling this season..

I think Wisconsin beats Michigan this year.   I really like this Wisconsin team (or perhaps I should say potential).
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: rolltidefan on August 15, 2018, 10:20:36 AM

Saturday, October 13
ESPN College Gameday, live from State College, PA
#5 PENN STATE 24, #11 MICHIGAN STATE 23


that would be one hell of a fun game to go to.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: FearlessF on August 15, 2018, 10:28:16 AM
white-out, night game
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: fezzador on August 15, 2018, 11:23:15 AM
If Iowa is 9-1, and Northwestern is 7-3 (assuming they beat Rutgers and split Wisconsin and ND) on November 10th, in your world would you have GameDay in Iowa City that day?
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 15, 2018, 11:30:35 AM
If Iowa is 9-1, and Northwestern is 7-3 (assuming they beat Rutgers and split Wisconsin and ND) on November 10th, in your would would you have GameDay in Iowa City that day?
I don't know, no idea what other games are going on that day
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: FearlessF on August 15, 2018, 12:05:00 PM
Iowa would need to be in the top 10 for sure maybe top 5 to get gameday w/o OSU, MU, or PSU in Kinnick
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: rolltidefan on August 15, 2018, 12:05:40 PM
white-out, night game
i went to the bama game in '11, was a white out game. bought last minute single ticket from psu ad and sat in with the white croud. was a fun experience. wasn't long after that the sandusky stuff hit news. i remember the fans and having a great time and being a little in awe of the place, and then it just being overshadowed by all that. felt bad for the fans, who were/are good people.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 16, 2018, 09:12:39 AM
ACC
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BIG XII

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MAC
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MOUNTAIN
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SUN BELT
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INDEPENDENTS
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 16, 2018, 10:41:03 AM
October 14 Poll
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 16, 2018, 10:52:11 AM
This scenario would certainly put a LOT of focus on the PSU/Iowa game on October 27.  It would be interesting with basically all of the B1G-E contenders rooting for Iowa and all of the B1G-W contenders rooting for PSU.  
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 16, 2018, 12:03:14 PM
WEEK 8
Thursday, October 18

Friday, October 19

Saturday, October 20
ESPN College Gameday, live from Clemson, SC
#2 Clemson 40, #13 NC State 14


Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 16, 2018, 12:05:34 PM
Yeesh, 9 ranked teams on bye?  Wonder what the record is for most in a mid-season week?

Clemson-NC State is the biggest game, but I would think both West Lafayette as probably the 2nd biggest game, in a location they haven't been in a long time, for probably the biggest on campus game in over a decade; and East Lansing for Michigan-MSU would both be in play here as well.  Particularly since next week is Clemson-FSU, which would be on the table, although in Tallahassee, not Death Valley.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: rolltidefan on August 16, 2018, 12:07:11 PM
next week is going to really shape up the sece.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 16, 2018, 12:49:40 PM
ACC
ATLANTIC
COASTAL

BIG TEN
EAST
WEST

BIG XII

PAC 12
NORTH
SOUTH

SEC
EAST
WEST

AMERICAN
EAST
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CONFERENCE USA
EAST
WEST

MAC
EAST
WEST

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN
WEST

SUN BELT
EAST
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INDEPENDENTS
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 16, 2018, 01:53:49 PM
BIG TEN
EAST
  • Penn State (4-0) 7-0
  • Ohio State (4-1) 7-1
  • Michigan State (3-1) 5-2
  • Michigan (3-2) 5-3
  • Maryland (2-2) 4-3
  • Indiana (1-4) 4-4
  • Rutgers (1-4) 4-4
Penn State looks INCREDIBLY good in this scenario.  They only have a one-game lead on the Buckeyes and Spartans but with tie-breaking H2H wins over both Ohio State and Michigan State they would have to lose twice to miss the B1GCG.  
The tOSU/MSU winner can do no better than 8-1 and would lose a H2H tie with PSU.  Even if Penn State were to lose twice they would have a decent chance of winning the B1G-E anyway and could do no worse than tied for second.  
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 16, 2018, 04:33:26 PM
October 21 Poll
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 16, 2018, 05:19:07 PM
WEEK 9
Tuesday, October 23

Thursday, October 25


Friday, October 26


Saturday, October 27
ESPN College Gameday, live from Tallahassee, FL
#12 Florida State 24, #2 Clemson 23


Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: rolltidefan on August 17, 2018, 09:41:21 AM
wow, 2 huge upsets in acc.

and sece is looking good for usce. beat either of ole miss or uf in next 2 weeks and they win east. secw is still wide open with bama, msu and au all still with good shot at winning.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 17, 2018, 10:15:07 AM
ACC
ATLANTIC
COASTAL

BIG TEN
EAST
WEST

BIG XII

PAC 12
NORTH
SOUTH

SEC
EAST
WEST

AMERICAN
EAST
WEST

CONFERENCE USA
EAST
WEST

MAC
EAST
WEST

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN
WEST

SUN BELT
EAST
WEST

INDEPENDENTS
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 17, 2018, 11:03:29 AM
October 28 Poll
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 17, 2018, 02:23:27 PM
WEEK 10
Tuesday, October 30

Halloween

Thursday, November 1


Friday, November 2


Saturday, November 3
ESPN College Gameday, live from Blacksburg, VA
#7 Virginia Tech 23, #20 Boston College 17


Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 17, 2018, 03:12:08 PM
ACC
ATLANTIC
COASTAL

BIG TEN
EAST
WEST

BIG XII

PAC 12
NORTH
SOUTH

SEC
EAST
WEST

AMERICAN
EAST
WEST

CONFERENCE USA
EAST
WEST

MAC
EAST
WEST

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN
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SUN BELT
EAST
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INDEPENDENTS
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 17, 2018, 03:20:34 PM
November 4 Poll
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 17, 2018, 04:39:41 PM
BIG TEN
WEST
  • Iowa (5-1) 8-1
  • Wisconsin (4-2) 7-2
  • Northwestern (3-3) 6-3
  • Purdue (3-3) 5-4
  • Minnesota (2-4) 4-5
  • Nebraska (1-5) 4-5
  • Illinois (0-6) 2-7
In this scenario Iowa would be very close to mathematically clinching.  
Path to the B1GCG from this point:

FWIW: In this scenario the Hawkeyes could mathematically clinch the weekend of November 10th.  If Iowa wins (vNU) and Wisconsin loses (@PSU) then Iowa would clinch because at 6-1 they could do no worse than a tie with Wisconsin and/or Purdue and the Hawkeyes would win any potential tie involving either Wisconsin, Purdue, or both.  
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 17, 2018, 04:40:41 PM
BIG TEN
EAST
  • Ohio State (5-1) 8-1
  • Penn State (5-1) 8-1
  • Michigan State (5-1) 7-2
  • Michigan (4-2) 6-3
  • Maryland (3-3) 5-4
  • Indiana (1-5) 4-5
  • Rutgers (1-5) 4-5
Despite the apparent three-way tie in this scenario, Penn State still holds the inside track.  They hold a H2H tiebreaker over the other two 5-1 teams and additionally, the Buckeyes and Spartans have not played yet so at least one of them must necessarily lose again.  
Path to B1GCG from this point:
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Riffraft on August 17, 2018, 04:52:51 PM
Despite the apparent three-way tie in this scenario, Penn State still holds the inside track.  They hold a H2H tiebreaker over the other two 5-1 teams and additionally, the Buckeyes and Spartans have not played yet so at least one of them must necessarily lose again.  
Path to B1GCG from this point:
  • Ohio State:  Win out and have PSU lose at least once.  
  • Penn State:  Controls their own destiny, if they win out they can do no worse than a tie with the tOSU/MSU winner and they win that tie.  
  • Michigan State:  Win out and have PSU lose at least once.  
  • Michigan:  This one is trickier.  They would win a tie with PSU but lose a tie with MSU and they haven't played the Buckeyes yet.  They would need to win out and they would additionally need PSU and MSU to each lose once more.  Furthermore, since they lose a two-way tie with the Spartans, they either need the Spartans to lose twice more or for the three way tiebreaker with MSU and PSU to go their way.  FWIW: the three-way tiebreaker probably would break in Michigan's favor because they are the only team in the running to have a non-divisional loss and divisional record is the second tiebreaker (only after H2H...2H).  
  • Maryland:  The Terps would still be in it mathematically but barely.  The tOSU/MSU winner will have at least six wins and Maryland could do no better than 6-3 so they would need all kinds of unlikely help just to get into a multiple-team tie at 6-3 and then they would have to hope that the tiebreakers broke their way.  
  • Indiana and Rutgers would be mathematicaly eliminated.  

So is he heading to the previous scenario where Penn State wins the division, but Ohio State goes to the CFP.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 17, 2018, 05:01:26 PM
So is he heading to the previous scenario where Penn State wins the division, but Ohio State goes to the CFP.
I think that is extraordinarily unlikely unless Penn State also goes to the CFP.  There are some substantial differences as compared to 2016:
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 20, 2018, 10:45:16 AM
WEEK 11
Tuesday, November 6

Wednesday, November 7

Thursday, November 8

Friday, November 9


Saturday, November 10
ESPN College Gameday, live from Norman, OK
#2 Oklahoma 41, #12 Oklahoma State 35


Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 20, 2018, 10:45:39 AM
A Saturday with 7 games between ranked teams, including the entire top 5?  Yes please!
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 20, 2018, 11:18:00 AM
WEEK 11
  • #9 PENN STATE d. #15 WISCONSIN
  • #18 IOWA d. NORTHWESTERN
This would all but lock up an Iowa/Penn State rematch in the B1GCG:
Iowa's win coupled with Wisconsin's loss would clinch the B1G-W for the Hawkeyes.  They would be 6-1 with two games to go but the only two B1G-W teams that could catch them are PU and UW and Iowa beat both of them so the race is over, Iowa is in.  
The East is not clinched mathematically but that appears to be nothing more than a formality.  Michigan State would be tied with Penn State while the Buckeyes and Wolverines would only be one game down but given the tiebreakers and Penn State's remaining schedule of UMD and RU (currently 3-4 and 1-6 in this scenario) the Nittany Lions would be all but a lock for a trip to Indianapolis.  
There are seven remaining games of direct relevance to the B1G-E Championship but, as a practical matter, most of them will not be relevant.  With seven remaining games of relevance (PSU@RU, PSUvUMD, MSU@UNL, MSUvRU, MvIU, M@tOSU, tOSU@UMD) there are 128 mathematical possibilities (2*2*2*2*2*2*2=128).  We can significantly reduce this number with a few shortcuts:
The relevant possibilities:
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 20, 2018, 02:31:07 PM
ACC
ATLANTIC
COASTAL

BIG TEN
EAST
WEST

BIG XII

PAC 12
NORTH
SOUTH

SEC
EAST
WEST

AMERICAN
EAST
WEST

CONFERENCE USA
EAST
WEST

MAC
EAST
WEST

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN
WEST

SUN BELT
EAST
WEST

INDEPENDENTS
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2018, 02:45:21 PM

WEST
  • Iowa (6-1) 9-1
  • Wisconsin (4-3) 7-3
  • Purdue (4-3) 6-4
  • Northwestern (3-4) 6-4
  • Nebraska (2-5) 5-5
  • Minnesota (2-5) 4-6
  • Illinois (0-7) 2-8
just need an upset of Sparty or Herky to get to that 6 win bowl game
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 20, 2018, 02:52:14 PM
FWIW:
As noted above, from this point there are 128 relevant possible outcomes in the B1G-E, of those:

There are two potential 4-way ties:

Four way tie #1:
In this case tOSU and Michigan are eliminated based on H2H2H2H records of 1-2 and Penn State wins based on their H2H win over MSU.  

Four way tie #2:
In this case tOSU is eliminated based on their 0-3 H2H2H2H record (the other three are all 2-1) then PSU is eliminated based on Divisional Record (because the two Michigan schools have non-divisional losses) and MSU wins based on their H2H win over Michigan.  
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: rolltidefan on August 20, 2018, 03:11:45 PM
USCe and Bama locked up seccg births. 
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 20, 2018, 04:32:29 PM
November 11 Poll
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Cincydawg on August 20, 2018, 04:39:35 PM
USCe undefeated is entertaining as a prediction.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 20, 2018, 05:05:10 PM
USCe undefeated is entertaining as a prediction.
I have them in my preseason top 20, but I think their early schedule breaks well.  I think the only game they play against another team I have in my top 40 is Georgia at home.  Get past that, and it's a pretty cake schedule.  They miss Alabama, Auburn, LSU, and Mississippi State as crossover opponents, and get Texas A&M at home.  But would I be surprised if they lose at home to Georgia, then go to Lexington and lose on the road there to be out of the race before October 1?  Not at all.
But they finish at Clemson, then in Atlanta against Alabama, so they'll be tested before this is over.  Will get to 11-0 at home against Chattanooga next weekend though.  Could set up the biggest Palmetto game in series history.  Currently both teams are sitting in the top 6.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: rolltidefan on August 20, 2018, 07:17:34 PM
You got acc loaded with 4 top 10 teams all at 9-1. Plus FSU in top 25. 
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 20, 2018, 07:46:01 PM
The way this is setting up the most important CG by far will be the B12.  Looking at the P5 from most to least important:

Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Hawkinole on August 21, 2018, 12:32:08 AM
This is fun to view. You have me drunk on possibility.
In this age some of the things that should be an advantage, or no longer.
Some P-5 teams with highly rated senior dominated lineups have players protecting their health for the next level. Iowa does not have a senior dominated lineup. I am not drinking ELA's Kool-Aid. My prediction for the Hawkeyes remains 8-9 wins. And, actually, with four down lineman suspended for Game 1 (from both OL and DL), Game #1, NIU, will be a big challenge. I think Iowa intends to challenge Wisconsin this year; but it remains to be seen how successfully. At least Iowa should develop some depth out of the NIU game.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2018, 10:58:04 AM
  • SEC:  This one is next because it wouldn't be impossible for Bama to lose and get into the CFP anyway if they finish 12-
I am confused.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 21, 2018, 11:20:00 AM
WEEK 12
Tuesday, November 13

Wednesday, November 14

Thursday, November 15

Friday, November 16

Saturday, November 17
ESPN College Gameday, live from Pullman, WA
#23 Washington State 35, #18 Arizona 30


Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: iahawk15 on August 21, 2018, 11:48:00 AM
This is fun to view. You have me drunk on possibility.
In this age some of the things that should be an advantage, or no longer.
Some P-5 teams with highly rated senior dominated lineups have players protecting their health for the next level. Iowa does not have a senior dominated lineup. I am not drinking ELA's Kool-Aid. My prediction for the Hawkeyes remains 8-9 wins. And, actually, with four down lineman suspended for Game 1 (from both OL and DL), Game #1, NIU, will be a big challenge. I think Iowa intends to challenge Wisconsin this year; but it remains to be seen how successfully. At least Iowa should develop some depth out of the NIU game.
While I don't expect Iowa to beat Wisconsin, nor handle that 4-out-of-5 road stretch as well as ELA predicted, the most entertaining part to me has been the polls. Each week, I imagine the outcry from the goober component of the Iowa fanbase:
"We're the lowest ranked undefeated P5 team! WTF?"
"A 1-loss Iowa is ranked lower than a 2-loss Wisconsin, and we beat them! WTF!?"
"We're the lowest ranked 1-loss P5 team! WTF??"
"We're 10-1 and not even in the top 10! WTF???"
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 21, 2018, 03:35:13 PM
ACC
ATLANTIC
COASTAL

BIG TEN
EAST
WEST

BIG XII

PAC 12
NORTH
SOUTH

SEC
EAST
WEST

AMERICAN
EAST
WEST

CONFERENCE USA
EAST
WEST

MAC
EAST
WEST

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN
WEST

SUN BELT
EAST
WEST

INDEPENDENTS
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2018, 03:38:06 PM
so, the Huskers have to upset the Hawks in Kinnick to get a bowl game

GBR!
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 21, 2018, 04:39:10 PM
BIG TEN
EAST
  • Penn State (7-1) 10-1
  • Michigan State (7-1) 9-2
  • Ohio State (6-2) 9-2
  • Michigan (6-2) 8-3
  • Maryland (3-5) 5-6
  • Indiana (2-6) 5-6
  • Rutgers (1-7) 4-7
WEST
  • Iowa (7-1) 10-1
  • Wisconsin (5-3) 8-3
  • Northwestern (4-4) 7-4
  • Purdue (4-4) 6-5
  • Nebraska (2-6) 5-6
  • Minnesota (2-6) 4-7
  • Illinois (0-8) 2-9
In the West the Hawkeyes have now clinched an outright B1G-W Championship.  
The situation in the East is a bit more complicated mathematically but, as a practical matter, it is not much different.  Here is the chart:
Game#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8
PSU v UMDPSUPSUPSUPSUUMDUMDUMDUMD
MSU v RUMSUMSURURUMSUMSURURU
M @ tOSUtOSUMtOSUMtOSUMtOSUM
B1G-E ChampPSU, MSUPSU, MSUPSUPSUMSUMSUPS,MS,OSPS,MS,M
B1GCG RepPSUPSUPSUPSUMSUMSUPSUM
Ohio State is mathematically eliminated from B1GCG contention but can still theoretically win a share of the B1G-E.  This is, however, extremely unlikely because in order for the tOSU/M winner to get a share of the title Maryland and Rutgers would need to win road games at Penn State and Michigan State respectively.  
Simpler version:
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 21, 2018, 05:30:29 PM
November 18 Poll
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 21, 2018, 06:05:25 PM
Playoff picture based on ELA's scenario and rankings:

IMHO all other teams along with #8 MSU, #9 tOSU, and #10 UCF are out of the running.  Thus there are, IMHO, eight serious contenders for the four spots.  Here is what I think they each need:
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 22, 2018, 09:32:51 AM
WEEK 13
Tuesday, November 20

Thanksgiving


Friday, November 23


Saturday, November 24
ESPN College Gameday, live from Clemson, SC
#6 Clemson 34, #3 South Carolina 10


Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 22, 2018, 10:23:45 AM
Updated playoff picture based on ELA's scenario so far (uses last week's rankings because this week's haven't been posted yet):

Playoff scenarios:
First off, way back in October 20 when both were unranked, Utah won a home game over USC.  That didn't seem like a big deal at the time but it is now the Pac-S tiebreaker so Washington will play Utah in the PacCG.  The problem for Washington specifically and the PAC in general is that Utah is now 10-2 and their win over a previously 4-7 BYU team will not do much to help their previous #22 ranking much so 10-2 and previously #17 Washington will be playing 10-2 and previously #22 Utah in a game that nobody outside of the PAC will be very interested in.  

Things we know for sure:

That is three slots that are taken.  The fourth is Oklahoma's to lose so all eyes will be on the B12CG.  If Oklahoma wins they will finish 13-0 and get either the #1 or #2 seed depending on the Bama/USCe outcome.  

If Oklahoma loses it gets interesting.  The plausible candidates would be:
Everybody else either has two losses (Pac Champ) or has two losses AND is a non-Champion (ACC and B1G losers, USCe if they lose, MSU, tOSU).  

I think that a 12-1 Bama would get the first shot.  If Bama beats USCe then it would be between 12-1 Oklahoma and 11-1 Georgia.  In that case the committee might decide that sending undefeated AAC Champion UCF was less controversial than choosing between two 1-loss non-Champions from different P5 leagues (SEC/B12).  
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 22, 2018, 10:44:43 AM
My thoughts on UCF (specifically in this scenario) and non-P5 teams in general wrt the CFP:

First, UCF has one thing going for them and one thing going against them as compared to a typical non-P5 team:

What they have going for them is that they start out ranked.  They are #21 in the preseason AP and #23 in the preseason Coaches Poll and that does help.  A lot of times non-P5 teams start out unranked and even if they go undefeated it takes 2-3 weeks to get into the rankings and another month or more to get any serious traction.  In this scenario UCF starts ranked and heading into their last game before the CG's ELA had them ranked #10 and playing #23 USF so that helps.  

What they have going against them is that their OOC schedule sucks.  Their four OOC opponents are:

The problem here is that the two P5 teams that they played finished a combined 4-20.  That, beating a CUSA team, an FCS team, and a bunch of AAC teams just doesn't prove much.  It does help that at least USF was ranked when they played but UCF's win will knock USF out of the rankings and if UCF wins the AACCG that will ensure that Tulane will also finish unranked so UCF's end-of-season record against ranked teams will be 0-0.  No P5 team without any wins over a ranked team would be seriously considered for the CFP and UCF shouldn't be either.  

If you are a non-P5 team and you want a shot at the CFP then, as far as I am concerned you need to schedule some monster OOC match-ups because your conference schedule is NOTHING like those of a P5 team.  
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2018, 11:07:48 AM
UCF gets some helmet from beating Auburn last year.

Few P5 teams wants to schedule a really good nonP5 team for obvious reasons.  Of course scheduling a team 6-8 years out doesn't give you much clue they could be good.  If your team had scheduled UCF for 2018 in 2012, it would have been a so what.

Boise State has had this issue obviously, few P5s wanted to give them a shot.

Bama got in over them last year and I suspect that would continue.  
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2018, 11:09:39 AM
I'd add to that the comment that UNC and Pitt likely were considered "up and coming" teams when UCF signed to play them.

Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 22, 2018, 11:34:07 AM
Yeah, the issue isn't effort, it's that Pitt and UNC aren't any good right now.  Obviously I have both on the low end of possible outcomes, so it's likely both will be better than this, but I think both would have to overachieve just to get bowl eligible in the best conference in the country right now.  I actually think this could be a solid Pitt team, and put them in the ACC of a few years ago, they could go 8-4 or 9-3 depending on schedule, but the league is SO deep right now.  I think UNC is a dumpster fire though.

Flip side, is I doubt UCF figured FAU would be the best they've ever been when they were put on the schedule.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2018, 12:07:10 PM
You schedule programs, not teams.  Whoever scheduled Texas in 2010 to play in 2015-6 caught a break.  Same with Tennessee et al.

Whoever scheduled Michigan State or Washington didn't.

Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 22, 2018, 12:19:09 PM
You schedule programs, not teams.  Whoever scheduled Texas in 2010 to play in 2015-6 caught a break.  Same with Tennessee et al.

Whoever scheduled Michigan State or Washington didn't.


That's why backing out is an option
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2013/09/26/alabama-michigan-state-football-series-off/2877807/
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 22, 2018, 12:24:55 PM
Replying to @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) and @Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) :

I agree that you schedule programs not teams and UCF took a big hit there because UNC and Pitt are both at the low end of their usual result in this scenario.  

That is somewhat compensated for by the fact that, as ELA pointed out, their other OOC FBS opponent (FAU) is about as good as could be hoped for.  

That said, scheduling an FCS opponent is bad enough when you are an SEC team, it is even worse when you are an AAC team because an AAC team doesn't have a tough conference schedule to make up for it.  In this scenario it appears that UCF's toughest opponents are:
Realistically, for any CFP contender beyond that it simply doesn't matter.  Any of them along with tOSU, MSU, and a number of other quality teams would EASILY beat the rest of UCF opponents.  Every other contender will have easily played at least six teams tougher than UCF's third toughest opponent.  The schedules simply are not comparable.  

Finally, we've had this debate before but I will reiterate my belief that teams should be judged based on who they played not based on who they tried to play:

This isn't 5 year old T-ball, we shouldn't be grading based on effort.  
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 22, 2018, 01:09:50 PM
ACC
ATLANTIC
COASTAL

BIG TEN
EAST
WEST

BIG XII

PAC 12
NORTH
SOUTH

SEC
EAST
WEST

AMERICAN
EAST
WEST

CONFERENCE USA
EAST
WEST

MAC
EAST
WEST

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN
WEST

SUN BELT
EAST
WEST

INDEPENDENTS
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 22, 2018, 04:04:23 PM
If Purdue finishes 7-5 (5-4), I'll be pleased.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 22, 2018, 04:13:52 PM
If Michigan finishes 8-4, fans will be riotous. Not that Harbaugh would be on the hot seat, but for the first time most fans would feel he's underachieved. Last year, it made sense. They were bar none the youngest in the nation, predicted to finish 9-3, and then lost their top 2 quarterbacks to injury. In that setting, finishing with 8 wins was painful but made every kind of sense. 
Not this season.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 22, 2018, 04:22:37 PM
If Michigan finishes 8-4, fans will be riotous. Not that Harbaugh would be on the hot seat, but for the first time most fans would feel he's underachieved. Last year, it made sense. They were bar none the youngest in the nation, predicted to finish 9-3, and then lost their top 2 quarterbacks to injury. In that setting, finishing with 8 wins was painful but made every kind of sense.
Not this season.
If you notice, I think I wound up almost universally picking the home team to win where conference top 7 teams played.  Considering I had the entire top 7 ranked between #3 and #19 in my countdown, that makes sense.  I think Michigan will be quite good, I think I had them #11.  But they also play 6 teams I have in my top 19, 4 of which are on the road.  Michigan has lost 16 straight games to ranked teams on the road, dating back 12 years, and now they have 4 in the same year.  There aren't a ton of teams I would pick to go better than about 9-3 at best against that schedule.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 22, 2018, 04:27:32 PM
I know. My hidden emphasis was that NU game. No matter its location or the Cats' quality, Harbaugh can't be comfortable if he loses it. And he can be comfortable if he hits 9 wins, with a bowl chance at 10. I guess that is where I see the line being drawn, and I see it as big bold and obvious.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 22, 2018, 04:33:01 PM
November 25 Poll
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 22, 2018, 04:38:31 PM
I know. My hidden emphasis was that NU game. No matter its location or the Cats' quality, Harbaugh can't be comfortable if he loses it. And he can be comfortable if he hits 9 wins, with a bowl chance at 10. I guess that is where I see the line being drawn, and I see it as big bold and obvious.
I'm quite a bit higher than most on both Iowa and Northwestern.  If Northwestern is what the consensus on them is, I agree that's a game Michigan *should* win.  I also know MSU will never be OSU to UM, but I do know how much they hate to lose that one.  So while MSU eternally has the intangible advantage in that game, I keep waiting for the one UM performance that tells me they are fed up and want to restore some order.  That mentality probably lasts one year, but I keep expecting *this* to be that year, and I've yet to see it.  Maybe it isn't there.
Anything worse than 6-0 in the remaining 6 games I'd find shocking, but then again last year I said that while 9-3 on paper seemed logical, losing any of those 9 would be shocking, far more than winning one of the 3, therefore 10-2 seemed more likely to me than 9-3, and then 8-4 happened.  But I'll say again that losing any of the other 6 would be shocking, but going any better than 3-3 in the remaining 6 seems like a very tall task.  In the end 8-4 or 9-3 just appears to be treading water to me.  10-2 or better IMO would be a strong statement, and anything worse than 8-4 would be a disaster in the year that everyone had been pointing to for two years.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 22, 2018, 04:50:03 PM
I still don't know how much we learn in Week 1 if Michigan wins. Obviously, 9-3 would then seem to become the floor. But what if Wimbush is just plain bad (in terms of well roundedness)?
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 22, 2018, 04:57:30 PM
I still don't know how much we learn in Week 1 if Michigan wins. Obviously, 9-3 would then seem to become the floor. But what if Wimbush is just plain bad (in terms of well roundedness)?
No matter how good or bad Notre Dame may be, winning an early season night game in South Bend is a generally a good sign (checks MSU 2016 schedule and slinks back)
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 22, 2018, 05:20:01 PM
I still don't know how much we learn in Week 1 if Michigan wins. Obviously, 9-3 would then seem to become the floor. But what if Wimbush is just plain bad (in terms of well roundedness)?
IMHO, we NEVER know how much we learn from not just week 1, but all early season games for several reasons.  For one thing, ELA's 2016 example is a great one.  MSU was coming off of a 12-2 season with a CFP appearance while ND was coming off of a 10-3 season and that game looked to be HUGE.  Looking back on it at the end of the season it was a pretty much meaningless contest between teams that finished 4-8 and 3-9.  
Alabama is preseason #1 in both polls and basically everyone assumes that they will be great again.  Their first game is against an unranked Louisville team.  Now assume that Louisville wins or even just the Louisville pushes Bama to the brink before losing.  We don't know what we have learned because there are at least three possibilities:

The same thing is true of preseason #14/14 Michigan's trip to preseason #12/11 Notre Dame.  Generically I would expect the #12/11 team to win a home game against the #14/14 team in a relatively close game but if #14/14 wins a close game or if either team blows the other out the same possibilities exist as in my Bama/Louisville example above.  
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 23, 2018, 08:10:10 AM
WEEK 14
Friday, November 30


Saturday, December 1
ESPN College Gameday, live from Atlanta, GA
#1 Alabama 31, #4 South Carolina 17


Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 23, 2018, 10:03:34 AM
ACC
ATLANTIC
COASTAL

BIG TEN
EAST
WEST

BIG XII

PAC 12
NORTH
SOUTH

SEC
EAST
WEST

AMERICAN
EAST
WEST

CONFERENCE USA
EAST
WEST

MAC
EAST
WEST

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN
WEST

SUN BELT
EAST
WEST

INDEPENDENTS
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Entropy on August 23, 2018, 10:26:49 AM
ELA.. this is well thought out and nicely done.   Had to take a bit of time, so thank you.

All that said... =) .....  side bet on UNL making a bowl game this year?   I think they will.  
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: rolltidefan on August 23, 2018, 10:29:28 AM
so, in the 5th annual alabama invitational cfp, we have:

bama
ou
clemson
and...

uga? psu? taking bets now.

i'll take psu, cause if you don't make your own ccg how can you expect to make the national playoffs? :sign0151:
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: rolltidefan on August 23, 2018, 10:36:22 AM
ELA.. this is well thought out and nicely done.   Had to take a bit of time, so thank you.

All that said... =) .....  side bet on UNL making a bowl game this year?   I think they will.  
there are 40 bowl games (41 with the cfp) with 80 teams participating.
i counted 76 in ELA list that qualify (.500 or + record).
leaving 4 5-7 teams likely in. guaranteed all will be p5 teams. teams meeting that requirement are:

i think there is some grad% rate they go by, so that would play a role. but if it weren't, my guess would be neb, lsu, ole miss and arky.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2018, 10:39:21 AM
ELA.. this is well thought out and nicely done.   Had to take a bit of time, so thank you.

All that said... =) .....  side bet on UNL making a bowl game this year?   I think they will.  
Ent,
Praying you are correct and ELA is wrong.
I'm siding with you.  I'm guessing 6 wins.  but, I won't be betting the farm.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 23, 2018, 10:39:31 AM
ELA.. this is well thought out and nicely done.   Had to take a bit of time, so thank you.

All that said... =) .....  side bet on UNL making a bowl game this year?   I think they will.  
Eh, I actually agree. I have them at 5-7, which as pointed out below, may already be enough.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 23, 2018, 10:39:54 AM
Ent,
Praying you are correct and ELA is wrong.
I'm siding with you.  I'm guessing 6 wins.  but, I won't be betting the farm.
I assumed we were betting my farm against his
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2018, 10:40:36 AM

i think there is some grad% rate they go by, so that would play a role. but if it weren't, my guess would be neb, lsu, ole miss and arky.
I think Neb has the grad rate.  They did a couple seasons ago.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2018, 10:41:16 AM
I assumed we were betting my farm against his
correct, I'm staying out of it.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 23, 2018, 10:41:22 AM
so, in the 5th annual alabama invitational cfp, we have:

bama
ou
clemson
and...

uga? psu? taking bets now.

i'll take psu, cause if you don't make your own ccg how can you expect to make the national playoffs? :sign0151:
IMO, it would be PSU without much debate.  You have 4 P5 undefeated or one loss conference champs.  It's where you have the 1 loss non-champ vs. the 2-loss champ that the debate starts.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: rolltidefan on August 23, 2018, 10:42:19 AM
I think Neb has the grad rate.  They did a couple seasons ago.
i'm sure they do. i was just saying, imo, based on fanbase/name that i think those teams would be first choice.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: rolltidefan on August 23, 2018, 10:45:02 AM
IMO, it would be PSU without much debate.  You have 4 P5 undefeated or one loss conference champs.  It's where you have the 1 loss non-champ vs. the 2-loss champ that the debate starts.
i agree. but a 4 spot jump is no easy task. but 2 lost, and only one you'd really jump over is non-champ uga.
and all jokes aside, that should be the way it is.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 23, 2018, 10:50:58 AM
i agree. but a 4 spot jump is no easy task. but 2 lost, and only one you'd really jump over is non-champ uga.
and all jokes aside, that should be the way it is.
Yeah, and the committee has said that conference titles are a data point, and a data point they don't consider until actually earned.  Meaning PSU being 1st in the Big Ten vs. Georgia being 3rd in the SEC was irrelevant until Penn State actually won the conference, which they now have.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 23, 2018, 10:57:28 AM
December 2 Poll
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 23, 2018, 10:59:09 AM
WEEK 15
Saturday, December 8
Army d. Navy
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 23, 2018, 10:59:53 AM
ACC
ATLANTIC
COASTAL

BIG TEN
EAST
WEST

BIG XII

PAC 12
NORTH
SOUTH

SEC
EAST
WEST

AMERICAN
EAST
WEST

CONFERENCE USA
EAST
WEST

MAC
EAST
WEST

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN
WEST

SUN BELT
EAST
WEST

INDEPENDENTS
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Entropy on August 23, 2018, 11:48:05 AM
there are 40 bowl games (41 with the cfp) with 80 teams participating.
i counted 76 in ELA list that qualify (.500 or + record).
leaving 4 5-7 teams likely in. guaranteed all will be p5 teams. teams meeting that requirement are:
  • cuse
  • virginia
  • maryland
  • indiana
  • nebraska
  • kentucky
  • lsu
  • ole miss
  • arkansas

i think there is some grad% rate they go by, so that would play a role. but if it weren't, my guess would be neb, lsu, ole miss and arky.
I should have said 6 wins.   I'm hoping they don't back their way into a bowl.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Entropy on August 23, 2018, 11:49:37 AM
Eh, I actually agree. I have them at 5-7, which as pointed out below, may already be enough.
I'd make it 6 wins...  I'm not interested in a 5 win bowl back in...
and nothing big.. like profile pics for a month.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Entropy on August 23, 2018, 11:50:36 AM
Ent,
Praying you are correct and ELA is wrong.
I'm siding with you.  I'm guessing 6 wins.  but, I won't be betting the farm.
I think 6 wins personally... ELA has 5.   Most likely a ball bounce will decide who is correct.   It's just for fun..
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: FearlessF on August 23, 2018, 12:41:03 PM
good clean fun!
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 23, 2018, 01:55:09 PM
Yeah, and the committee has said that conference titles are a data point, and a data point they don't consider until actually earned.  Meaning PSU being 1st in the Big Ten vs. Georgia being 3rd in the SEC was irrelevant until Penn State actually won the conference, which they now have.
I agree with the consensus.  I think it is pretty clear from past experience that the committee's choice, at least barring something extraordinary will be:
I'm assuming that this pattern would continue if necessary such that #4 would be 2-loss P5 Champions and #5 would be 2-loss P5 non-Champions if we ever got to that point.  

The one plausible exception would be if there was a MAJOR difference in SOS favoring a group #3 team over a group #2 team.  In this case it appears that SoS favors PSU's (in part due to the CG).  Additionally, PSU has a 1/2 game edge in standings (again because of the CG).  

Georgia's ranked opponents (per ELA's final poll):
Penn State's ranked opponents (per ELA's final poll):

The biggest argument in UGA's favor is that they lost to a much better team.  Per ELA's final rankings UGA lost to #6 USCe while Penn State lost to unranked Michigan.  However, Michigan isn't terrible in ELA's scenario.  They finished 8-4 on a VERY difficult schedule with road losses to #8 MSU, #9 tOSU, #18 Notre Dame, and unranked (but decent and 8-4) Northwestern.  

Georgia has a better loss but Penn State has five wins over ranked teams compared to Georgia's one and four of Penn State's wins are over teams better than any team Georgia beat while a fifth is comparable to Georgia's best win (#17 9-3 Auburn ~ #19 9-3 Wisconsin).  Furthermore, the committee has shown us repeatedly that "bad losses" aren't really a thing anymore or at least that they aren't NEARLY as important as "Good wins" and Penn State is clearly superior to Georgia in "Good wins".  

I agree with others in this thread.  Penn State would pretty obviously be the fourth CFP participant and there wouldn't be a lot of controversy about that outside of Athens and maybe a few SEC kool-aid drinkers.  
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 23, 2018, 04:19:08 PM
Bowl Schedule

DECEMBER 15
NEW MEXICOFresno State (11-2) vs. Florida Atlantic (10-3)
CURESouthern Miss (6-6) vs. NM State (6-6)
LAS VEGASStanford (8-4) vs. Boise State (12-1)
CAMELLIAAppalachian State (11-2) vs. Ohio (8-4)
NEW ORLEANSLouisiana Tech (7-5) vs. South Alabama (6-6)
.
DECEMBER 18
BOCA RATONUAB (8-4) vs. Temple (6-6)
.
DECEMBER 19
FRISCOHouston (6-6) vs. UNLV (6-6)
.
DECEMBER 20
GASPARILLABoston College (7-5) vs. SMU (6-6)
.
DECEMBER 21
BAHAMASMarshall (8-4) vs. Miami(Ohio) (7-5)
POTATOSan Diego State (9-3) vs. Toledo (9-3)
.
DECEMBER 22
BIRMINGHAMArmy (10-2) vs. Tulane (8-5)
ARMED FORCESIowa State (7-5) vs. Memphis (8-4)
DOLLAR GENERALTroy (8-4) vs. Buffalo (7-6)
HAWAIINorth Texas (10-3) vs. Utah State (8-4)
.
DECEMBER 26
FIRST RESPONDERMiddle Tennessee (7-5) vs. Western Michigan (6-6)
QUICK LANEWake Forest (6-6) vs. Northern Illinois (10-3)
CHEEZ-ITOregon (8-4) vs. Texas Tech (6-6)
.
DECEMBER 27
INDEPENDENCELouisville (7-5) vs. South Florida (10-2)
PINSTRIPE#18 Notre Dame (9-3) vs. California (6-6)
SAN FRANCISCO#24 Washington State (9-3) vs. NORTHWESTERN (8-4)
TEXASKansas State (8-4) vs. Arizona State (6-6)
.
DECEMBER 28
MUSIC CITY#19 WISCONSIN (9-3) vs. LSU (5-7)
CAMPING WORLD#14 Miami (10-2) vs. Texas (8-4)
ALAMO#21 USC (9-3) vs. #23 Oklahoma State (9-3)
HOLIDAY#20 Utah (10-3) vs. MICHIGAN (8-4)
.
DECEMBER 29
BELK#16 Florida State (9-3) vs. Missouri (7-5)
PEACH#7 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. #9 OHIO STATE (10-2)
ORANGE#2 Oklahoma (13-0) vs. #3 Clemson (12-1)
COTTON#1 Alabama (13-0) vs. #4 PENN STATE (12-1)
ARIZONAArkansas State (10-3) vs. Wyoming (7-5)
.
DECEMBER 31
MILITARYDuke (7-5) vs. Navy (8-5)
SUN#25 Arizona (9-3) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)
LIBERTYTexas A&M (7-5) vs. West Virginia (6-6)
GATOR#13 NC State (10-2) vs. Florida (8-4)
.
JANUARY 1
OUTBACK#17 Auburn (9-3) vs. PURDUE (7-5)
CITRUS#12 Mississippi State (10-2) vs. #13 IOWA (11-2)
FIESTA#6 South Carolina (11-2) vs. #10 Central Florida (13-0)
ROSE#8 MICHIGAN STATE (10-2) vs. #11 Washington (11-2)
SUGAR#5 Georgia (11-1) vs. #22 TCU (9-4)
.
JANUARY 7
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPTBA
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 23, 2018, 04:26:43 PM
I'm being 100% selfish here, but I'd rather Purdue end up in the Holiday than the Outback. I can drive there ;-)

I suppose you're picking them to the Outback over UM because Michigan was already there, and they try to avoid <5 teams in 6 years.

But I think Purdue is still too talent-poor to really line up with most top SEC teams, and having to "play up" a slot because of being selected over UM makes it even worse...
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 23, 2018, 04:29:24 PM
I'm being 100% selfish here, but I'd rather Purdue end up in the Holiday than the Outback. I can drive there ;-)

I suppose you're picking them to the Outback over UM because Michigan was already there, and they try to avoid <5 teams in 6 years.

But I think Purdue is still too talent-poor to really line up with most top SEC teams, and having to "play up" a slot because of being selected over UM makes it even worse...
Yeah, the way it falls here Purdue is almost defaulted to the Outback.  The teams they want to avoid are UW, UM, Iowa and Northwestern, the only teams Purdue is competing with for bowl spots.  They may go ahead and just burn their 2nd Wisconsin though.  I think they'd avoid Michigan in back to back years, particularly, as has been pointed out, a 2nd straight 8-4 season would be seen as a disappointment.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Cincydawg on August 23, 2018, 05:14:30 PM
That would be a lousy year for UGA, even if they beat 9-5 TCU in the bowl game.  Really lousy, as 12-1 and probably a final ranking of 3.  That is kinda funny.

One win over a ranked team assuming Auburn stays ranked.  

OOC slate really is bad this year.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 23, 2018, 06:15:05 PM
That would be a lousy year for UGA, even if they beat 9-5 TCU in the bowl game.  Really lousy, as 12-1 and probably a final ranking of 3.  That is kinda funny.

One win over a ranked team assuming Auburn stays ranked.  

OOC slate really is bad this year.
I didn't realize how bad until I did my post upthread comparing PSU's and UGA's theoretical SoS in this scenario.  
Their schedule is:

In ELA's scenario Florida was ranked (barely, #25) before losing to FSU in the last week of the season.  It would obviously help if the rambling wreck were decent and that isn't UGA's fault but scheduling UMASS, MTSU, and and FCS team is.  

When I first started that post I assumed that UGA's SoS would be at least comparable at least to PSU's pre-CG SoS but in this scenario it isn't.  UGA ends up 1-1 against ranked teams with the lone win coming against a good-but-not-great 9-3 Auburn team.  
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 24, 2018, 08:21:52 AM
Bowl Schedule

DECEMBER 15
NEW MEXICOFresno State d. Florida Atlantic
CURESouthern Miss d. NM State
LAS VEGASBoise State d. Stanford
CAMELLIAOhio d. Appalachian State
NEW ORLEANSLouisiana Tech d. South Alabama
.
DECEMBER 18
BOCA RATONTemple d. UAB
.
DECEMBER 19
FRISCOHouston d. UNLV
.
DECEMBER 20
GASPARILLABoston College d. SMU
.
DECEMBER 21
BAHAMASMiami(Ohio) d. Marshall
POTATOSan Diego State d. Toledo
.
DECEMBER 22
BIRMINGHAMArmy d. Tulane
ARMED FORCESIowa State d. Memphis
DOLLAR GENERALBuffalo d. Troy
HAWAIINorth Texas d. Utah State
.
DECEMBER 26
FIRST RESPONDERMiddle Tennessee d. Western Michigan
QUICK LANEWake Forest d. Northern Illinois
CHEEZ-ITOregon d. Texas Tech
.
DECEMBER 27
INDEPENDENCELouisville d. South Florida
PINSTRIPE#18 Notre Dame d. California
SAN FRANCISCONORTHWESTERN d. #24 Washington State
TEXASKansas State d. Arizona State
.
DECEMBER 28
MUSIC CITY#19 WISCONSIN d. LSU
CAMPING WORLD#14 Miami d. Texas
ALAMO#21 USC d. #23 Oklahoma State
HOLIDAYMICHIGAN d. #20 Utah
.
DECEMBER 29
BELK#16 Florida State d. Missouri
PEACH#9 OHIO STATE d. #7 Virginia Tech
ORANGE#3 Clemson 38, #2 Oklahoma 23
COTTON#1 Alabama 31, #4 PENN STATE 24
ARIZONAWyoming d. Arkansas State
.
DECEMBER 31
MILITARYDuke d. Navy
SUNGeorgia Tech d. #25 Arizona
LIBERTYTexas A&M d. West Virginia
GATOR#13 NC State d. Florida
.
JANUARY 1
OUTBACK#17 Auburn d. PURDUE
CITRUS#12 Mississippi State d. #13 IOWA
FIESTA#10 Central Florida d. #6 South Carolina
ROSE#11 Washington d. #8 MICHIGAN STATE
SUGAR#5 Georgia d. #22 TCU
.
JANUARY 7
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP#1 Alabama (14-0) vs. #3 Clemson (13-1)
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 24, 2018, 09:58:09 AM
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Monday, January 7
#3 Clemson 27, #1 Alabama 24
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 24, 2018, 12:03:20 PM
ACC
ATLANTIC
COASTAL

BIG TEN
EAST
WEST

BIG XII

PAC 12
NORTH
SOUTH

SEC
EAST
WEST

AMERICAN
EAST
WEST

CONFERENCE USA
EAST
WEST

MAC
EAST
WEST

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN
WEST

SUN BELT
EAST
WEST

INDEPENDENTS
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 24, 2018, 04:04:49 PM
January 8 Poll
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2018, 04:14:54 PM
UGA has usually scheduled two P5 teams OOC, but this year it didn't happen for whatever reason.  And GaTech is believed to be mediocre at best, so it is a bad OOC slate with only 8 conference games.  As I said, a 12-1 year as shown would be a pretty bad year in reality.
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: FearlessF on August 24, 2018, 04:37:19 PM
but, you'll take the winning percentage and a top 5 finish

a decade from now, not many will remember the weak schedule
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2018, 04:47:31 PM
Eh, sure I'd take it, but in some respects something like 12-2 would be better than 12-1.  My "aim" each year is to win the conference.  Anything less is disappointing to me, save those years where the team is clearly not in the hunt.

Win the conference, the rest of it is somewhat subject to variables outside your control.  Someone will ask me whether I'd rather have the SEC Crown last year or the NC crown and no SEC title.

For bragging rights, the latter is better of course, but the SEC thing tied us with Tennessee for 2nd most titles, and yes, nobody outside the conference cares.

Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: FearlessF on August 24, 2018, 07:35:25 PM
conference titles are impressive
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: rolltidefan on August 24, 2018, 07:49:19 PM
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Monday, January 7
#3 Clemson 27, #1 Alabama 24
Can I dislike a post?
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: Cincydawg on August 24, 2018, 07:52:25 PM
If Alabama makes the playoffs again, even if they lose, that will be a something.

Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on August 24, 2018, 09:42:03 PM
Trying to remember, they would have been in in 2013?  Or do we think MSU and Stanford would have gotten in over them?  Given the current selection committee mentality.  So this will be 5 in a row, and give or take 2013, would be 8 in a row, 7 out of 8 at worst.  What would FSU or Miami's streaks have looked like?
Title: Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
Post by: ELA on January 07, 2019, 11:52:41 PM
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Monday, January 7
#3 Clemson 27, #1 Alabama 24
Psh, this result was obvious all along...
...now please don't read this thread any farther.