WEEK 11
- #9 PENN STATE d. #15 WISCONSIN
- #18 IOWA d. NORTHWESTERN
This would all but lock up an Iowa/Penn State rematch in the B1GCG:
Iowa's win coupled with Wisconsin's loss would clinch the B1G-W for the Hawkeyes. They would be 6-1 with two games to go but the only two B1G-W teams that could catch them are PU and UW and Iowa beat both of them so the race is over, Iowa is in.
The East is not clinched mathematically but that appears to be nothing more than a formality. Michigan State would be tied with Penn State while the Buckeyes and Wolverines would only be one game down but given the tiebreakers and Penn State's remaining schedule of UMD and RU (currently 3-4 and 1-6 in this scenario) the Nittany Lions would be all but a lock for a trip to Indianapolis.
There are seven remaining games of direct relevance to the B1G-E Championship but, as a practical matter, most of them will not be relevant. With seven remaining games of relevance (PSU@RU, PSUvUMD, MSU@UNL, MSUvRU, MvIU, M@tOSU, tOSU@UMD) there are 128 mathematical possibilities (2*2*2*2*2*2*2=128). We can significantly reduce this number with a few shortcuts:
- 32 of these scenarios involve PSU winning their last two games. Those can be compressed into one scenario because if PSU wins their last two games then none of the other results matter.
- 64 of these scenarios involve PSU losing to either RU or UMD but we can cut that in half because it doesn't matter which. Additionally, we can but another 1/4 of those possibilities because the tOSU@UMD result is not relevant unless PSU loses not just once but twice.
The relevant possibilities:
- PSU wins their last two games, they go to the B1GCG
- If PSU goes 1-1 in their last two games then: MSU goes if they win out. If PSU and MSU both go 1-1 in their last two games then they and the tOSU/M winner (assuming the tOSU/M winner won their other game) would all be tied at 7-2. In the PSU/MSU/tOSU tie PSU wins by virtue of being 2-0 against the other two (MSU is 1-1, tOSU is 0-2). The PSU/MSU/M tie is trickier. They would each be 1-1 against each other so it would go to divisional record where PSU would lose because their "other" loss would be to a divisional rival (either UMD or RU). The winner between the two Michigan schools, however, would be dependent upon which of their remaining games the Spartans lost. If the Spartans lost to Rutgers then Michigan would go to the B1GCG because they would win the Divisional Record tiebreaker. If the Spartans lost to Nebraska instead then the Spartans would go to the B1GCG based on H2H over Michigan which would be invoked once PSU was eliminated.
- If PSU goes 0-2 in their last two games then MSU, M, tOSU, and PSU are all in play.
