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The Power Five => Big XII => Topic started by: TexasFan on November 26, 2018, 12:27:50 PM

Title: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: TexasFan on November 26, 2018, 12:27:50 PM

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/reports-north-carolina-hiring-mack-brown-head-coach-145305158.html (https://www.yahoo.com/sports/reports-north-carolina-hiring-mack-brown-head-coach-145305158.html)
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: longhorn320 on November 26, 2018, 12:51:54 PM
That really surprises me

Best of luck MB
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: BrownCounty on November 26, 2018, 01:04:47 PM

Holy crap, I thought this was a joke.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on November 26, 2018, 02:13:14 PM
Wish MB the best of luck.  The key for him will be hiring really good coordinators, it'll be interesting to see who he brings onto his staff.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CousinFreddie on November 26, 2018, 05:19:24 PM
Huh, and all this time I thought NC was a stepping stone on the way to Texas.  Now I guess it’s the other way ‘round?  

Just remember that it was Mack Brown who made Texas great again

For awhile
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on November 26, 2018, 10:22:53 PM
good luck to Mack.  He's a good guy.

Been out of the game a while, won't be easy
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: longhorn320 on November 26, 2018, 10:32:50 PM
I now pronounce North Carolina as my official 2nd team in college football

hook em Tar Heels
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CousinFreddie on November 27, 2018, 01:18:24 AM
Makes sense.  Another underperforming flagship state school, unless Mack has switched to coaching hoops 
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: longhorn320 on November 27, 2018, 08:59:04 AM
Makes sense.  Another underperforming flagship state school, unless Mack has switched to coaching hoops
how mean of you
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CousinFreddie on November 27, 2018, 10:03:30 AM
I’m such a bad boy
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on November 27, 2018, 12:31:48 PM
Not sure UNC is capable of "underperforming" in football.  Aside from Mack Brown's successful first run there, they've certainly never been considered a football school.

Now roundball, on the other hand...

Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: longhorn320 on November 27, 2018, 01:19:31 PM
Not sure UNC is capable of "underperforming" in football.  Aside from Mack Brown's successful first run there, they've certainly never been considered a football school.

Now roundball, on the other hand...


Thats good for Mack
No where to go but up
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: BrownCounty on November 27, 2018, 02:30:09 PM
Not sure UNC is capable of "underperforming" in football.  Aside from Mack Brown's successful first run there, they've certainly never been considered a football school.

Which is why this is perfect for Mack - since he chooses not to hang up his whistle.  Maybe he is bucking for AD at UNC eventually.  I just don't see Mack Brown as HC to be the long-term outlook here.  But at any rate, there won't be the immediate pressure to WIN like Texas would be.

There could be a master plan.  We already know he is ready to appoint someone as "coach-in-waiting" and he hasn't even been announced yet.  He's big on doing that for some reason, but it tells me this is only a 3-5 year gig by design.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: longhorn320 on November 27, 2018, 02:42:42 PM
Which is why this is perfect for Mack - since he chooses not to hang up his whistle.  Maybe he is bucking for AD at UNC eventually.  I just don't see Mack Brown as HC to be the long-term outlook here.  But at any rate, there won't be the immediate pressure to WIN like Texas would be.

There could be a master plan.  We already know he is ready to appoint someone as "coach-in-waiting" and he hasn't even been announced yet.  He's big on doing that for some reason, but it tells me this is only a 3-5 year gig by design.
Considering the fact that MB is 67 I tend to agree with you
only 3 or 4 HCs older
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CousinFreddie on November 27, 2018, 04:41:06 PM
Not sure UNC is capable of "underperforming" in football.  Aside from Mack Brown's successful first run there, they've certainly never been considered a football school.

Now roundball, on the other hand...
Their all time winning pct is 55.8%.  It’s the best college football program in the state by far, and they’ve had a few 10+ win seasons along the way. They’ve even beaten Texas a few times.  Not OU though ;)
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on November 28, 2018, 08:29:17 AM
Yes, it's the best college football program in a basketball state.  Still not saying anything.  
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Gigem on November 28, 2018, 11:10:22 AM
I was surprised when I heard this. I guess maybe he’s got something left to prove. 21 years between HC gigs at the same place, is that a record?
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: BrownCounty on November 28, 2018, 04:51:23 PM
I was surprised when I heard this. I guess maybe he’s got something left to prove.

I love Mack for what he did for Texas, but the man just can't let go.  Maybe it's just a passion rather than ego.  I would hope so.  Or maybe he just likes money.

But whatever the reason, this firmly proves that he wasn't stepping down anytime soon at Texas without a little help.  I was saddened that we had to escort him out the door, but he obviously had no intentions of finding it himself.

I don't expect him to rebuild UNC like he did the first time around.  But he will improve them.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on November 28, 2018, 06:06:16 PM
The ACC is absolutely horrible outside of Clemson. It won't take much to get them to the top of that conference.

Mack's strength is in program-building. It was program-maintaining where he really suffered.  He'll do well for a few years while he's in program-building mode.

Not surprisingly, he came and got Tim Brewster, who is the current TE coach at Texas A&M, to take the same role at UNC.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CousinFreddie on November 28, 2018, 06:29:11 PM
The ACC is absolutely horrible outside of Clemson. It won't take much to get them to the top of that conference.
And yet two different ACC teams have won the NC this past decade, and the Big XII hasn’t even has a shot at one since 2009.  
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on November 28, 2018, 11:20:45 PM
Doesn't change at all the truth of my statement.  
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CousinFreddie on November 28, 2018, 11:29:36 PM
I can’t see that the data back you up:

http://mcubed.net/ncaaf/tvc/big12/acc.shtml (http://mcubed.net/ncaaf/tvc/big12/acc.shtml)

The ACC is roughly even with the Big XII head to head, and has had more success lately than the Big XII in terms of going all the way.

I don’t see much difference.  OU and Texas might be dominant over the ACC, but that doesn’t mean much as our two teams are dominant over most any conference, individually.  
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on November 28, 2018, 11:53:14 PM
OK.  Cool.  Hook 'Em!
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CharleyHorse46 on November 29, 2018, 10:36:55 AM
I will resist the temptation to launch into my recurring lecture on the fallacy of conference comparisons with emphases on pies and vacuums, the scarcity of interactions, the significance of bowls and the absurdity of perceptions.

Instead I will say, I wish Mack luck and if he is vigilant he will be successful.  If he gets complacent and misplaces his trust in the wrong people, he won't.

Tim Brewster was a great hire.  I'm anxious to see who else joins his staff.

I'm doubtful it could be Kingsbury and Chizik.  Kirk Bohls always underminds his breaking news (Mack to NC) with unnecessary bull (Kingsbury and Chizik to be his coordinators).  Guess you could say he could stand to be more vigilant and less complacent himself.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Shiner on November 29, 2018, 02:55:10 PM
The loss of Brewster hurts... a lot.  He's a top flight recruiter.  But it's hard to compete with the fact that he has ties to North Carolina.  Wish him luck.

If MB also pulls in Kingsbury and Chizik.... well.... holy shit.  That's one hell of a staff.  Kingsbury is going to make SOMEONE a lot of money as their OC.  There's rumor here in DFW of him coming to Cowboys has OC here.  
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on November 29, 2018, 04:38:17 PM
Brown gives them a name, and puts them in the news, so some recruits may glance at them again who might otherwise have not.

UNC will be paying two coaches for a while, their finances won't be good.  My guess is he can get them back to 5-7 to 8-4 type seasons in 2-3 years if he gets good coordinators.

Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on November 29, 2018, 04:39:00 PM
I will add they have had a lot of injuries for two years running.  I SUSPECT that is because their practices are "soft" and they don't get used to hitting at full speed.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on November 29, 2018, 04:39:48 PM
I will further add every time I watch them play they miss tackles like crazy, poor form, poor angles, arm tackles, stopping a guy at the LOS and he still gets 4 yards, everything, again, soft practices.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: longhorn320 on November 29, 2018, 09:05:12 PM
I will further add every time I watch them play they miss tackles like crazy, poor form, poor angles, arm tackles, stopping a guy at the LOS and he still gets 4 yards, everything, again, soft practices.
they just need a few more Texas boys
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CharleyHorse46 on November 30, 2018, 10:18:14 AM
I read on a Tar Heels fan forum that they're unimpressed with Greg Robinson.   

You know, I don't underestimate the guy anymore.

When Carl Reese resigned and Mack Brown brought in Greg Robinson, I was like "OMG!  Are you kidding me?"  

That's because the last time I saw the guy Peyton Manning and the Colts had destroyed his KC Chiefs in a first round AFC playoff game.   I thought we were doomed.

But you know, he and Dick Tomey instilled a toughness in Texas football that had been missing in Mack's first five seasons.  Texas took a big step.   I loved what Greg Robinson did for the Horns.

Then in 2013 when Mack fired Manny and plugged Greg Robinson in as the DC starting with game three, I thought there was no way he could turn things around.

Towards the end of the season, I started worrying he was going to save Mack's job.

So I have no doubts about Greg Robinson.  Looks like Mack wants him to mentor Tommy Thigpen before he (Robinson) gets his recurring wanderlust and wanders off.

Looks like a very sound plan to me.  Tar Heel fans just don't understand.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on November 30, 2018, 10:24:16 AM
The neighboring programs like Clemson and Georgia cherry pick North Carolina of most top recruits (think Todd Gurley) and what's left get spread out over NCSU/UNC/Duke/Wake Forest.  A 3-4 star guy is more apt to go to NCSU than UNC in football.  They aren't going to appeal in general to many out of staters who are known commodities either.

MB is at least a name and may tilt a few, as I noted, but whether he can coach them up remains to be seen.  Fortunately the base line is very low, and the ACC is a bunch of mediocre teams  in similar shape and Clemson.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on November 30, 2018, 10:36:50 AM
Yup.  UNC isn't going to displace Clemson, but it's not going to take much to rise into the top 1/4 of that conference and get to 5-3 or even 6-2 on an annual basis.  They have some tough marquee OOC opponents over the next few years (South Carolina, Notre Dame, Auburn), but going 3-1 in their OOC still gets them to 8-4 overall, maybe 9-3 in a really good year.  Which is a completely reasonable expectation, IMO.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on November 30, 2018, 10:56:15 AM
Dabo threatened to leave Clemson

could be Mack's conference if that happened
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CharleyHorse46 on November 30, 2018, 11:22:00 AM
Dabo threatened to leave Clemson

could be Mack's conference if that happened
There will always be one conference foe Mack can't get over or around.  In the ACC it was Bobby Bowden.  In the Big 12 it was Bob Stoops.
That's why he always talks about ten-win seasons instead of conference championships.
It irks me to no end.  
There are so many reasons to love Mack Brown, but just about every preceding Texas head coach won as many or more conference championships than he did - and over a much shorter span of time.
Mackovic won or shared 3 in 6 years.  McWilliams, dismal as he was, won one over 5 years.  Akers won 2 in 10.  DKR 11 in 20.  Ed Price 2 in 6.  Blair Cherry 1 in 4.  Dana Bible 2 in 10.  Clyde Littlefield 2 in 7.   Berry Whitaker 1 in 3.  William Juneau 1 in 3.  Eugene Van Gent 1 in 1.  Dave Adderdice 2 in 5.  
The only ones who didn't win conference championships were EJ Stewart and Jack Chevigny and they were only allowed to stay 3 and 4 years respectively, much like Charlie Strong.
Somehow the mission crept under DeLoss and Mack.  To DeLoss, money was more important.  To Mack it was 10 win seasons.
I can't believe how they let him languish from 1999 through 2003.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on November 30, 2018, 11:40:31 AM
happens to many very good, but not great elite coaches

Barry was the guy for Osborne

Woody was the guy for Bo

Urban is now the guy for Harbaugh

Saban is that guy in the SEC

Dabo is the guy in the ACC

the common thread is that all those guys recruited at the highest level and then let those superior athletes play w/o screwing it up
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CharleyHorse46 on November 30, 2018, 11:59:06 AM
Yep!

Only time we could prevail was when VY was there and later McCoy to Shipley.  Without those three we might've never won a Big 12 championship.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CharleyHorse46 on November 30, 2018, 11:59:39 AM
Did you know Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley's fathers were college roommates?
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on November 30, 2018, 12:39:00 PM
I did not.

Imagine UNC is 5-7 next year and 7-5 the next, it's possible, that is even quite modest.  Brown would be seen as a hero, and they'd be primed for a new coach from Appy State or somewhere.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on November 30, 2018, 02:05:36 PM
Are there any coaches in the ACC named Bob or Bobby?  That seems to be Mack's downfall.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CousinFreddie on November 30, 2018, 06:32:54 PM
Texas under Mack would sometimes quit if they got far behind, but I really don't think this was Mack's fault, except possibly when he let the QB controversy (Simms vs Applewhite) go on too long for Texas.  Weren't these blowouts kind of unique to playing against OU though?  I don't remember Texas folding against teams other than Oklahoma.  OU's offense was always high powered under Bobby, with really really good QB's (two Heismans, and one near Heisman) going for us in those years, and some good backs and O-lines too.  I think that explained some of those RRS blowouts.  Texas otherwise had a stellar defense and could keep the opposing offense contained in those years, and they did it against OU a few times too (like that 16-13 game).

So far my read is that Mack is a better coach than Herman, because this year at least you often see Texas quitting when they're ahead.  The fourth quarter seems like no man's land to this Texas team.  I looked recently at their box scores, and the following teams outscored Texas in the fourth quarter, some of whom by a lot: Maryland, Tulsa!, KSU, OU, WVU, TT, ISU and KU.  That's 8 out of 12, and including all two of the three losses, in which the fourth quarter was when the game was decided.

I'm sincere in saying that this throws me, because one of the things I used to admire about Texas was their ability to come back.  I remember all those comebacks under Mack over Oklahoma State for example.  Mack had some really impressive Texas teams and such a great run.  One of the better coaches I've ever seen.  Rivalry aside, I really admire him.  
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: longhorn320 on November 30, 2018, 08:26:15 PM
Texas under Mack would sometimes quit if they got far behind, but I really don't think this was Mack's fault, except possibly when he let the QB controversy (Simms vs Applewhite) go on too long for Texas.  Weren't these blowouts kind of unique to playing against OU though?  I don't remember Texas folding against teams other than Oklahoma.  OU's offense was always high powered under Bobby, with really really good QB's (two Heismans, and one near Heisman) going for us in those years, and some good backs and O-lines too.  I think that explained some of those RRS blowouts.  Texas otherwise had a stellar defense and could keep the opposing offense contained in those years, and they did it against OU a few times too (like that 16-13 game).

So far my read is that Mack is a better coach than Herman, because this year at least you often see Texas quitting when they're ahead.  The fourth quarter seems like no man's land to this Texas team.  I looked recently at their box scores, and the following teams outscored Texas in the fourth quarter, some of whom by a lot: Maryland, Tulsa!, KSU, OU, WVU, TT, ISU and KU.  That's 8 out of 12, and including all two of the three losses, in which the fourth quarter was when the game was decided.

I'm sincere in saying that this throws me, because one of the things I used to admire about Texas was their ability to come back.  I remember all those comebacks under Mack over Oklahoma State for example.  Mack had some really impressive Texas teams and such a great run.  One of the better coaches I've ever seen.  Rivalry aside, I really admire him.  
Not sure why you think that
We have lost 3 games by a total of 8 points combined
Ive seen no quit in this team
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Gigem on November 30, 2018, 09:39:43 PM
Quote
Mack had some really impressive Texas teams and such a great run.  One of the better coaches I've ever seen.  Rivalry aside, I really admire him.   

Well said Freddie. It just shows how shitty Texas fans can be even when their teams are terrific.

Damn, at least give the man credit for recruiting vy and Shipley et al. He certainly had our number on the field and on the recruiting trail.

Seriously guys Stoops is probably one of the all time greats in cfb but boo freakin hoo that Mack failed to get over that hump. He played for 4 conference titles, won 2, and tied one division that I know of. Not to mention playing for the mnc twice but ONLY winning one.

You do realize Mack has the same amount of mnc s that Bob has right?  

You guys deserve to lose tomorrow. Sheesh.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CharleyHorse46 on November 30, 2018, 10:37:56 PM
Ha.

Gigem, I was the only Texas fan on this thread complaining about Mack Brown, so it’s not like we’re all ungrateful.  Just me.  And I’ll gladly admit it.

Mack did a lot of good things.  Thank you, Mack.  But he did a lot of bad things too.   Two conference championships in 16 years was a unacceptable.  Five straight losses to OU was unacceptable.  Owning a handful of Texas’ biggest losses to OU was unacceptable.

As for you, Fred, you’re about the fifth Sooner I’ve met who wants to lament Texas’s 4th quarter lapses like it’s a pitiable thing.  Yet oddly enough I don’t know too many Texas fans crying about it.  Given how far Texas has fallen we’re grateful for the baby step progress.  Could it be you Sooners are just obsessing over your one shining glimmer of hope?

Maybe you should worry about your defense.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on December 01, 2018, 01:16:46 AM
Hey Gigem-- Sober the hell up and talk to us tomorrow.  Are you kidding me?  Really?

Root for whomever the hell you want, but don't pick some weird made up bullshit reason to do it.  You're an Aggie, and you hate Texas.  Fred is a Sooner, and hates Texas.  It's natural that you want to root against Texas because it's a rivalry and that's what rivals do.

But don't try to find some weird, stupid, trumped-up reason to do so.  It's just so contrived and stupid.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on December 01, 2018, 07:11:50 AM
Can I hate Texas because they don't know the difference between polenta and grits?
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Gigem on December 01, 2018, 07:49:38 AM
Hey Gigem-- Sober the hell up and talk to us tomorrow.  Are you kidding me?  Really?

Root for whomever the hell you want, but don't pick some weird made up bullshit reason to do it.  You're an Aggie, and you hate Texas.  Fred is a Sooner, and hates Texas.  It's natural that you want to root against Texas because it's a rivalry and that's what rivals do.

But don't try to find some weird, stupid, trumped-up reason to do so.  It's just so contrived and stupid.
Well I'm not sure if something I posted got deleted or what because I didn't think I said anything that inflammatory.  It just irks me that some fans are crying about a coach that won 76% of their games and played for only two MNC.  In my mind if you can consistently win 10+ games a year, win the majority of your bowl games, and compete for the conference year in and year out that's all you can ask for.  You just happened to be unlucky with the timing.  You just don't realize how lucky you really were.  Because at the end of the day, you can have all the other pieces you need, but I'm fully and wholly convinced that above all else you need just a little bit of luck to make it all work.

And I also want to add that I'm not necessarily in disagreement that he needed to be retired at the end of his run.  Clearly, his last several teams were not up to par with most of the teams he fielded.  Since I really don't follow texas football that close I'm not sure the reason why but what I do know is that he would have done much, much better than Charlie Strong.  

Good luck Mack and we'll see how he fares at UNC.  
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on December 01, 2018, 08:02:13 AM
I agree about the luck factor, a game or two that flips your way, usually.  Mark Richt was "close but no cigar" several times, and we see what happened to him.  9.6 wins per season on average.  See ya.

Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Shiner on December 01, 2018, 08:15:22 AM
I'm not sure what is contrived or stupid about saying that the fans of a particular school should be thankful for everything a coach accomplished.... particularly considering how successful Mack Brown was.  Afterall, how many times times did horn fans tell Aggies that firing RC was stupid and we should've been thankful for everything he did at A&M.  

It's no different than pointing out how ridiculous it is that Bama fans get upset because they didn't win the national title in a particular year.  I mean... seriously!  You have half a dozen titles the last decade or so and that's not good enough?  
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on December 01, 2018, 09:51:05 AM
Dabo threatened to leave Clemson because of some grief a week or so ago

coaching is tough, even when you are winning
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on December 01, 2018, 09:51:36 AM
Can I hate Texas because they don't know the difference between polenta and grits?
everyone has their reason
but, yes, of course
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: longhorn320 on December 01, 2018, 10:43:41 AM
everyone has their reason
but, yes, of course
some folks hate Texas so much that they give the upside down Horns sign even if the team they are 
playing isnt Texas
I love seeing that
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: TexasFan on December 01, 2018, 11:23:00 AM
You either like what Mack did at Texas or you think he did not do enough.   He should never have sat Applewhite.    Simms should have red shirted or not been recruited.  
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CharleyHorse46 on December 01, 2018, 11:49:28 AM
Did I ever tell my grits story?

I was about 8 and my folks threw my sibs & me in the Dodge Dart and headed out through the deep south to Cocoa Beach Florida.

We stopped at a diner for breakfast in some dirty little town in Mississippi, Alabama or Georgia.

I ordered bacon, eggs and toast and the waitress who was voluptuous said, “you want grits with that, darlin?” And I was enchanted.   She could’ve said “you want dog shit with that, darlin?” And I would’ve said yes.

My parents went ape shit.  That extra 30 cents apparently screwed up our travel budget.  They were like, grits? We don’t eat grits. You ain’t never had grits. You won’t like grits. You better eat every damn bite.

I learned a lot about grits, southerners, women and particularly southern women.

I don’t like grits.  I’m not a southerner and I don’t trust women.  And women with southern accents make me want to barf.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on December 01, 2018, 12:13:01 PM
Did I ever tell my grits story?


I don’t like grits.  I’m not a southerner and I don’t trust women.  And women with southern accents make me want to barf.
hell yeah, you've told the story, but it's always good to hear it again
I’m not a southerner and I don’t trust women.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: longhorn320 on December 20, 2018, 05:01:14 PM
some things just never change

Mack was always a great recruiter

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/national-signing-day-north-carolina-flips-four-star-top-100-qb-from-florida-state/
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CharleyHorse46 on December 20, 2018, 06:37:37 PM
...  Afterall, how many times times did horn fans tell Aggies that firing RC was stupid and we should've been thankful for everything he did at A&M...
FTR, RC won 4 conference championships in 13 years. Mack won 3 in 16.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on December 20, 2018, 06:38:14 PM
I like southern women.

I like grits.

I swear some of you won't be happy until you suck every bit of fun out of life.  I pity you.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CharleyHorse46 on December 20, 2018, 06:43:18 PM
I like southern women.

I like grits.

I swear some of you won't be happy until you suck every bit of fun out of life.  I pity you.
Said Mr Beer snob, Barbecue snob, Music snob, Truck snob, Travel Trailer snob, Vacation snob.  Oh my.  Let’s see what else?   You seem to know best about everything.  Life MUST be great when you’re the authority on every nuanced detail in life and you can look down on the ignorant opinions of others.  Eh, nice guy?
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CharleyHorse46 on December 20, 2018, 06:45:28 PM
BTW, Merry Chrstmas to you & your beautiful family.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on December 20, 2018, 09:52:23 PM
Said Mr Beer snob, Barbecue snob, Music snob, Truck snob, Travel Trailer snob, Vacation snob.  Oh my.  Let’s see what else?   You seem to know best about everything.  Life MUST be great when you’re the authority on every nuanced detail in life and you can look down on the ignorant opinions of others.  Eh, nice guy?
It's pretty fabulous, I gotta say.
And Merry Christmas to you and yours as well! :)
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on July 09, 2019, 11:37:53 PM
https://247sports.com/college/texas/Article/Nick-Saban-Alabama-Crimson-Tide-Texas-Longhorns-coach-133530320/ (https://247sports.com/college/texas/Article/Nick-Saban-Alabama-Crimson-Tide-Texas-Longhorns-coach-133530320/)
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2019, 08:20:34 AM
some things just never change

Mack was always a great recruiter

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/national-signing-day-north-carolina-flips-four-star-top-100-qb-from-florida-state/
I thought they would recruit better, but not that much better (so far).  UNC should be at least a 7-8 win team.  I think the previous coach had "soft practices".
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CWSooner on July 10, 2019, 11:12:20 AM
The previous coach was Larry Fedora, who had had success as the OC at Oklahoma State and the HFC at Southern Miss.

If he indeed had soft practices, I wonder if he adopted the philosophy that some have ascribed to Mike Riley, who was reasonably successful at Oregon State, much less so at Nebraska.

Supposedly Riley practiced soft to avoid injuries, because he didn't have enough talented depth, and by the end of the season he usually had a pretty good team.  At Oregon State, anyway.  It didn't seem to work for him at Nebraska.

Or maybe all of that had nothing to do with why Fedora failed at UNC.  Maybe it was because he was an outspoken opponent of some NCAA policy changes that were favorable to athletes at the expense of the schools' control over them.  Maybe he lost the confidence of his players.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on July 10, 2019, 01:32:59 PM
we'll probably never know

Riley was just plain soft, not just practices.  The practices were just what folks saw and reported on.

the PAC is not the B1G, might be able to survive with soft in the PAC.

Being soft on 18-22 year old men is not a way to succeed.

Some kids don't have the self discipline to do the right things to succeed.  Such as go to practice, practice the right way when they get there, study the playbook, get to the weight room, hard out while yer there, eat right, get your sleep, go to class, study for exams.

Riley let all of that slide.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on July 10, 2019, 03:52:26 PM
UNC had a rash of injuries two years in a row.  I suspect that could be because they didn't practice at "game speed", so the players were not ready for game speed.  That is speculation on my part, somewhat supported by how soft they appeared, to me, to play in games.  They couldn't tackle worth spit, they would be in position and kind of flail, semi-arm tackle, and the running back would barely be slowed. They did have an abnormal number of injuries.

One year could be bad luck.  Two years is a trend.

Anyway, should be an interesting team this year.

Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CWSooner on July 10, 2019, 04:40:06 PM
we'll probably never know

Riley was just plain soft, not just practices.  The practices were just what folks saw and reported on.

the PAC is not the B1G, might be able to survive with soft in the PAC.

Being soft on 18-22 year old men is not a way to succeed.

Some kids don't have the self discipline to do the right things to succeed.  Such as go to practice, practice the right way when they get there, study the playbook, get to the weight room, hard out while yer there, eat right, get your sleep, go to class, study for exams.

Riley let all of that slide.
He certainly was a bad fit with the public perception of Nebraska football for half a century before he got there.  Nebraska seemed to lose its way with the firing of Frank Solich and the subsequent hires of Bill Callahan, Bo Pelini, and Mike Riley.  I hope that Scott Frost is the guy who gets the Big Red ship turned back in the right direction.

Sorry for the hijack.  Back to Mack Brown!

Does he have yellow teeth, or what?  ;)
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on July 10, 2019, 04:53:52 PM
bu cause
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on July 11, 2019, 07:07:03 AM
My premise is that soft practices could be intended to reduce practice injuries and lead to game injuries.

I'm obviously not sure about that at all.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2019, 12:14:06 PM
Nice to see Mack get a win in his first game, and against nearby regional rival South Carolina no less.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: longhorn320 on September 01, 2019, 04:04:26 PM
Yep thats Mack 1 and the sec 0

A step in the right direction

congrats MB
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CWSooner on September 01, 2019, 09:17:01 PM
Glad to see him get off to a winning start in his return.

I saw something on either ESPN or CBS second-guessing his final play.  On 4th down, with 10-15 seconds left, inside midfield, UNC took a knee, stopping the clock and handing the ball over to USC-E for a potential Hail Mary play.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: longhorn320 on September 02, 2019, 12:16:09 AM
Glad to see him get off to a winning start in his return.

I saw something on either ESPN or CBS second-guessing his final play.  On 4th down, with 10-15 seconds left, inside midfield, UNC took a knee, stopping the clock and handing the ball over to USC-E for a potential Hail Mary play.
From what Ive read its possible the QB didnt realize it was 4th down

Which is still a bone head move

anyway it was the first game and Macks very young team grew up a little bit

Im looking forward to following UNC
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CWSooner on September 02, 2019, 12:28:53 AM
That makes sense, 320.

I've always had a soft spot for UNC.  I spent three tours in the Army at Fort Bragg, NC, and I like the folks I met in the civilian community there.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on September 02, 2019, 10:45:05 AM
The fourth down play was bone headed.  I could not tell which coach "called it", if any.  Brown appeared upset about it.  It was clear on first down that they could not run out the clock by kneeling.  I think they should have run running plays up the gut.  They take more time off the clock, and then punted with 5 seconds left.  You have to be able to punt the ball consistently.  Punt it OOB 30 yards down field.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on September 02, 2019, 10:46:39 AM
Oddly enough, I have only a very passing interest in UNC despite having spent 4.5 years in school there.  I never got interested in their sports activities.  

They are another program that should be an 8-9 win team on average I think, along with Illinois, and Washington who used to be on this list.

Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on September 02, 2019, 10:47:40 AM
not a hoops fan I guess
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on September 02, 2019, 11:03:05 AM
Oddly enough, I have only a very passing interest in UNC despite having spent 4.5 years in school there.  I never got interested in their sports activities. 

They are another program that should be an 8-9 win team on average I think, along with Illinois, and Washington who used to be on this list.




You know, folks say stuff like this, but that always implies that another team should be 4-8. It's a zero sum game.

There are so many middlin teams in the ACC (and really only one good one) that in any given year, ANY of them could or should be 8-9 win teams.  But they can't ALL be, because they play each other.

To get 8 wins in the ACC, assuming you sweep your 4 OOC games, you still have to go 4-4 in conference.  But in reality some teams are going to go 2-6, and others are going to go 6-2.

Similar story for Illinois, if they're winning 9 games per year, who in the B1G are they knocking down a few rungs in order to get there?  I believe that Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nebraska should all be 9-win teams in a year.  But that doesn't leave much room for Illinois or Purdue or Minnesota.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Gigem on September 02, 2019, 08:04:47 PM
You know, folks say stuff like this, but that always implies that another team should be 4-8. It's a zero sum game.

There are so many middlin teams in the ACC (and really only one good one) that in any given year, ANY of them could or should be 8-9 win teams.  But they can't ALL be, because they play each other.

To get 8 wins in the ACC, assuming you sweep your 4 OOC games, you still have to go 4-4 in conference.  But in reality some teams are going to go 2-6, and others are going to go 6-2.

Similar story for Illinois, if they're winning 9 games per year, who in the B1G are they knocking down a few rungs in order to get there?  I believe that Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nebraska should all be 9-win teams in a year.  But that doesn't leave much room for Illinois or Purdue or Minnesota.
Excellent point.  It should be an obvious observation but it's easy to overlook.  
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Kris60 on September 02, 2019, 09:28:02 PM
You know, folks say stuff like this, but that always implies that another team should be 4-8. It's a zero sum game.

There are so many middlin teams in the ACC (and really only one good one) that in any given year, ANY of them could or should be 8-9 win teams.  But they can't ALL be, because they play each other.

To get 8 wins in the ACC, assuming you sweep your 4 OOC games, you still have to go 4-4 in conference.  But in reality some teams are going to go 2-6, and others are going to go 6-2.

Similar story for Illinois, if they're winning 9 games per year, who in the B1G are they knocking down a few rungs in order to get there?  I believe that Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nebraska should all be 9-win teams in a year.  But that doesn't leave much room for Illinois or Purdue or Minnesota.
Good point about the zero sum game. You can’t have 65 P5 teams winning 9 games per year.  Maybe it’s antiquated but I still look at how many good football players live close to your campus.  I still think you can make the argument Wisconsin and Iowa are annual overachievers.  Nebraska on an all time basis is a huge overachiever.  West Virginia is an overachiever, imo. There’s no glaring reason why WVU shouldn’t go 4-8 every year.

I do think UNC is a school who has perennially underachieved.  They have a great athletic  brand, good weather, and they are the flagship school in a state that produces a lot of good football players.  UCLA should never have a 20 year stretch like they have had, imo.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on September 03, 2019, 04:52:43 PM
Good point about the zero sum game. You can’t have 65 P5 teams winning 9 games per year.  Maybe it’s antiquated but I still look at how many good football players live close to your campus.  I still think you can make the argument Wisconsin and Iowa are annual overachievers.  Nebraska on an all time basis is a huge overachiever.  West Virginia is an overachiever, imo. There’s no glaring reason why WVU shouldn’t go 4-8 every year.

I do think UNC is a school who has perennially underachieved.  They have a great athletic  brand, good weather, and they are the flagship school in a state that produces a lot of good football players.  UCLA should never have a 20 year stretch like they have had, imo.

Excellent points.  Like anything, you can take a utility-based view and evaluate the "natural resources" a program might have.  History can alter that though, because the "bluebloods" were largely established in a bygone era of the sport.  And in that bygone era, the natural resources weren't necessarily distributed as they currently are, nor were the priorities on things like weather or scholastic reputation.  Yet those major helmet teams were able to build up a lot of corporate "goodwill" to their brand based on OTHER factors that aren't necessarily important to the sport anymore.

If you did a hard reset of college football today in 2019, started everything over from zero, would Nebraska and Michigan be bluebloods?  Would they be able to attract and retain top talent and coaching?  

Anyway, food for thought on a Tuesday afternoon.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Gigem on September 03, 2019, 06:53:04 PM
The question I have is do you consider Clemson a blue blood?  Or Florida?  Or LSU?  
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: longhorn320 on September 03, 2019, 08:17:52 PM
The question I have is do you consider Clemson a blue blood?  Or Florida?  Or LSU? 
LSU - yes

Florida - no

Clemson - no

at least thats my view
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CWSooner on September 03, 2019, 09:30:15 PM
UNC football is hurt by playing second violin to UNC basketball.  I can't think of a school that is a blueblood in basketball and also has a great football program.  UCLA might come the closest a few decades ago.

North Carolinians don't seem to care as much about CFB as they do college hoops.  They're a lot like Kansans--or at least KU fans--in that respect.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on September 03, 2019, 10:59:17 PM
The question I have is do you consider Clemson a blue blood?  Or Florida?  Or LSU? 
No, no, and no.  Nor Miami, nor Florida State.  Take a look at the top 10 D1-A teams in total wins and the top 10 in win%.  The teams that are common on both lists are your bluebloods.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on September 04, 2019, 06:12:00 PM
UNC should be able to recruit better than most ACC teams, so should Virgina, and it's a fact the fan base is not very fervent there.

That's how I got to 8-9 wins in many years, and yes it means other teams like Wake and Duke would be worse.  

Illinois is a populous state, I presume they play football there even if Chicago is basketball oriented.  I'm mainly looking at recruiting potential, the University OF is usually the flagship in most states and has the largest appeal.

NC has ten million residents and some good HS football.  I think CMB can pull in some of them on name power alone if he's competing with Wake and Duke and NCSU and VaTech and Maryland.  Oh yeah, UMd is in the B1G now, I forgot.  I think Rutger may be as well. 

I can't keep up with these late shifts in conferences.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on September 05, 2019, 02:45:45 PM
Mack has sell the basketball program to the football recruits
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on September 29, 2019, 12:42:41 AM
Wow Mack came pretty darn close to upsetting the top ranked Clemson Tigers.  Crazy.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on September 29, 2019, 09:55:57 AM
nice work Mack!

and I like the choice to go for two
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on September 29, 2019, 09:19:54 PM
nice work Mack!

and I like the choice to go for two
I don't.  It was demonstrably the wrong call.  Proof is in the pudding.

Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: BrownCounty on September 29, 2019, 09:41:09 PM
I don't.  It was demonstrably the wrong call.  Proof is in the pudding.

C'mon now.  Hindsight.  20/20.  They coulda made it.

Mack was fortunate to hang with Clemson in 60 minutes.  He knew he had no shot in OT.  He didn't want to give Clemson a fresh "do-over", which is basically what OT is.  And I agree with him.

Logic had already been defied.  No reason to suddenly think you're going to beat the #1 team using logic and being practical.

You hate Mack.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on September 29, 2019, 10:39:33 PM
You're confusing me with someone else, I don't hate Mack at all.  I'm pulling for him.

Going for 2 was absolutely the wrong call.  North Carolina whas the momentum at the end of the 4th quarter.  Going into overtime would have been great for the home team and bad news for Clemson.

Proof is in the pudding, going for 2 was the wrong call and it cost them the game.  They might or might not have won in OT.  They didn't give themselves the chance to find out.  Bad decision, wrong call.  
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CWSooner on September 29, 2019, 11:13:06 PM
I think that the argument for going for two and the argument for the particular play that was called might be two separate things.

There are arguments pro and con for attempting a 2-point conversion.

Pro: You win it right there, whereas going into OT would favor the better team, Clemson.

Con: Clemson still would have had 1:14 to drive into FG range and win it.

Pro: You've stopped Clemson most of the night.

Con: Clemson will pull out all the stops to get into position--it's do or die for them.

And so on. . . .

But the call for the QB to outrace the Clemson defense to the corner seems to have been a bad one.

For a multitude of reasons, including a basic affection for Mack Brown, I was hoping for UNC to win.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CWSooner on September 29, 2019, 11:54:46 PM
Pete Fiutak has an interesting discussion of the game at CFN.

https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/09/clemson-21-north-carolina-20-10-quick-thoughts (https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/09/clemson-21-north-carolina-20-10-quick-thoughts)
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: BrownCounty on September 30, 2019, 11:36:25 AM
Proof is in the pudding, going for 2 was the wrong call and it cost them the game.  They might or might not have won in OT.  They didn't give themselves the chance to find out.  Bad decision, wrong call. 

They had a better chance of converting 2 than beating Clemson in a soccer shoot-out.  That was Mack's judgement.  I agree with him.

There is no "proof" in losing a coin flip.  Pudding or no.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: BrownCounty on September 30, 2019, 11:37:27 AM
Pro: You win it right there, whereas going into OT would favor the better team, Clemson.

Hello.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on September 30, 2019, 12:02:15 PM
Going into overtime favors the team with momentum, and the home team.

I'm 100% comfortable with my opinion being better than yours.

And the proof is in the pudding. *shrug*
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on September 30, 2019, 12:03:37 PM
Pete Fiutak has an interesting discussion of the game at CFN.

https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/09/clemson-21-north-carolina-20-10-quick-thoughts (https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/09/clemson-21-north-carolina-20-10-quick-thoughts)
Pete Fiutak?  He still owes me money!
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: BrownCounty on September 30, 2019, 01:07:19 PM
I'm 100% comfortable with my opinion being better than yours.

And also being an easier position to take.  An easy soap box, which is also comfortable.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: longhorn320 on September 30, 2019, 01:40:07 PM
If I have the better team I pick overtime which involves many more variables then running just

one play
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: BrownCounty on September 30, 2019, 04:22:34 PM
If I have the better team I pick overtime

I have always believed that if you are a heavy underdog, and somehow you have squirreled your way into having a chance - avoid OT at all cost.

And no, it doesn't always work.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on September 30, 2019, 04:41:43 PM
nothing works all the time

just because it did or didn't work last Saturday doesn't mean it was the right or wrong answer
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on September 30, 2019, 05:10:36 PM
Yeah, no.  If you have the momentum and the home crowd, then gambling everything on one play that they know is coming in regulation, versus an entire set of downs in OT, doesn't make any sense at all.

I'm quite comfortable with my opinion here.  But y'all feel free to continue advocating the strategy that we know didn't work.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on September 30, 2019, 06:06:47 PM
I'm quite comfortable with opinion as well.

and there's absolutely no way for you to prove my opinion wrong

but, feel free to try
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on September 30, 2019, 06:07:52 PM
I don't need to prove your wrong.  Mack Brown took care of that for me on Saturday. ;)


Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on September 30, 2019, 06:10:01 PM
but, you have no way to know with any certainty that Mack would have won the game if he had kicked the point to possibly take the game to OT

two wrongs don't make a right 
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on September 30, 2019, 06:12:39 PM
I know for sure that going for two, and failing, ended the game for the North Carolina Tar Heels.  That is a certainty.

And that's all I need to know to rest assured that I am correct.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: longhorn320 on September 30, 2019, 07:04:46 PM
I know for sure that going for two, and failing, ended the game for the North Carolina Tar Heels.  That is a certainty.

And that's all I need to know to rest assured that I am correct.
not trying to gang up on ya utee but Mack's team was outgunned at every position

2nd guessing after the results is fine but in reality I feel going for 2 gave him the best shot at a win

but again thats just my opinion 

had he been successful Mack would have been written up as being wise and crafty
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: BrownCounty on September 30, 2019, 08:17:03 PM
Just pulling numbers out of the air, I would give UNC a 60% chance of converting the go-for-2.

I would give them say a 40% chance of beating Clemson in an OT shootout.

So I go for it.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: BrownCounty on September 30, 2019, 08:17:37 PM
Yeah, no.

What is this, a Ben Stiller impression.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on September 30, 2019, 09:06:35 PM
not trying to gang up on ya utee but Mack's team was outgunned at every position

2nd guessing after the results is fine but in reality I feel going for 2 gave him the best shot at a win

but again thats just my opinion

had he been successful Mack would have been written up as being wise and crafty
It's alright, I can take it. :)
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on October 01, 2019, 07:50:31 AM
What is this, a Ben Stiller impression.

Yeah, normally I do Seinfeld but I'm trying to mix it up these days.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CWSooner on October 01, 2019, 12:37:13 PM
Stewart Mandel is not the last word on college football, but he is a reasonably astute observer and analyst of the scene.

THE ATHLETIC: Mandel’s Forward Pass: Despite little movement atop the polls, the pool of national title contenders is growing
By Stewart Mandel Sep 30, 2019

. . . Within seconds of his team scoring a touchdown with 1:17 remaining to cut its deficit against Clemson to 21-20, the camera caught Mack Brown on the sideline holding up two fingers. At that moment, you knew the UNC coach was one play from either being lauded as a national hero or ripped as if it were 2013 and he was back at Texas.

Sure enough, when an ill-advised speed-option play went nowhere, the game broadcasters, Twitter and armchair QBs everywhere wondered why he didn’t just opt for the game-tying extra point.  “Our best chance to win was to go for two,” Brown said afterward.

Earlier Saturday, Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald elicited near-universal bewilderment by unsuccessfully going for two twice in the fourth quarter against Wisconsin, first when his team cut the score to 24-9 with 8:45 remaining and then again at 24-15 with 4:10 left. Had he just kicked both times, the Wildcats could have been down just a touchdown by then rather than nine points.

Fitzgerald came to his postgame news conference ready to explain/lecture — complete with a chart.
“When you’re down 15, you go for two because those are the analytics that we pull to try and shorten the game and have less possessions to win the game,” he said. “… You can’t ever know what’s going to happen next, but you have to assume that we have to score as many points right here, right now. That’s the thought process behind that.”

Fitzgerald might be one of the first major college coaches to openly cite game-management analytics, but he won’t be the last. Many NFL coaches already subscribe to it, resulting in a notable increase in that league in the past few years in attempted two-pointers. In fact, in his comments, Fitzgerald cited a video of Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh from last week explaining the math behind going for two down 11 points in the fourth quarter against the Chiefs.

In general, coaches embracing modern analytics is a good thing. But there’s one flaw with going strictly by probabilities: They’re not tailored to the specific game being played.

Fitzgerald is correct that going for two down 15 gets the analytics seal of approval; however, his offense, which is currently tied for last in all of FBS in yards per play (3.9), had managed just 99 yards through three quarters Saturday. When it finally scored a touchdown, it came after Wisconsin muffed a punt at its own 32. The idea that the Cats would suddenly overpower the Badgers’ defense from 2 yards out seems … improbable.

Brown, on the other hand, absolutely made the right decision. Not because of the math, which says UNC’s win probability would be the same either way, but because Clemson was the far more talented team. While the Tigers struggled to sustain drives Saturday, their chances of winning a series of 25-yard chess matches when they have Lawrence, Tee Higgins, Justyn Ross and Travis Etienne would seemingly be much higher than UNC’s.

“We had been out there a lot on defense and were worn down, and they had more depth than we had,” Brown said. “I just felt like it was our chance.”

Unfortunately, OC Phil Longo’s play call, which Clemson apparently saw coming, did not help his boss look smart for it. But perhaps they and coaches everywhere will have an opportunity to get better educated about these decisions very soon.

“I’d love to (teach) a class at Northwestern on analytics,” Fitzgerald said.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: BrownCounty on October 01, 2019, 01:39:10 PM
utee is 100% comfortable that his opinion is better than Stewart Mandell's.

I mean, the proof is in the pudding.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on October 01, 2019, 01:41:59 PM
Setting me up to compare myself against a college football mediot is a pretty low bar.

So yeah, I'm still good.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2019, 02:20:21 PM
“I’d love to (teach) a class at Northwestern on analytics,” Fitzgerald said.

Fitz could explain it to Utee, but he couldn't make him understand it

;)
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on October 01, 2019, 03:00:48 PM
Fitz could explain it to Utee, but he couldn't make him understand it

;)
I did a summer engineering program at Northwestern.

Way overrated.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on October 01, 2019, 03:13:35 PM
Imagine UNC got the conversion.  1:14 left, Clemson gets the KO at their 25.  What are the odds they kick a FG?

Four downs available immediately.  I don't know how many TOs.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: BrownCounty on October 01, 2019, 03:40:11 PM
Imagine UNC got the conversion.  1:14 left, Clemson gets the KO at their 25.  What are the odds they kick a FG?

Same scenario applies if UNC had kicked for the tie.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on October 01, 2019, 06:03:28 PM
that's the question:

odds of Clemson scoring with 1:14 left

Mack was going for the win

MAck obviously didn't like his odds in OT vs a superior team - Utee might like MAck's odds in OT, but MAck did not - fact
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on October 01, 2019, 06:20:11 PM
And Mack didn't get the high-risk 2-point conversion and lost.

Fact.

Man, y'all keep making this too easy for me.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CWSooner on October 01, 2019, 06:59:18 PM
A data sample of one does not prove the case.

Example: The Germans launched a sneak attack through the Ardennes Forest in Dec 1944.  While it gained some initial success--the Battle of the Bulge--it ultimately failed and Germany was in a worse situation afterward than before.

That does no mean sneak attacks always fail, or that the Germans should not have launched a sneak attack in that situation.

Obviously this example does not "validate" any ideas about sneak attacks per se succeeding or failing.

It's just one data point.

As was the UNC-Clemson finish Saturday.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on October 01, 2019, 07:20:29 PM
Doesn't always prove the case indeed.

But this one did.

Make the easy 1, and live to fight on.

Miss the high-risk 2, and you're done for sure.  Real simple.

Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: BrownCounty on October 01, 2019, 08:04:53 PM
MAck obviously didn't like his odds in OT vs a superior team

And this is another discussion we have had here before - but OT is a different game.  I hate it.  Mack didn't like his chances in this "soccer shootout" that they call college football OT.  Texas Tech would have a dozen NC trophies if that was football.

On this one, the NFL has it closer to being right, though still not perfect.  You gotta be willing to have a tie - any other resolution is not the same game.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: BrownCounty on October 01, 2019, 08:06:34 PM
And Mack didn't get the high-risk 2-point conversion and lost.

2-point conversions are not high risk.  They are actually somewhere between 50-60%.  Just not 95%, like the extra point.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on October 01, 2019, 08:09:35 PM
Right, 95%, the near sure-thing.

Y'all just keep proving my point for me, I don't even need to respond any more. :)
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CWSooner on October 02, 2019, 12:50:55 AM
When OU played Georgia in the Rose Bowl after the 2017 season, it went to OT.  In the 1st OT, OU held Georgia to a FG, then had the chance to win the game.  On 4th and 2 or 3 inside the 10, Lincoln Riley decided to kick the FG.  Even before we made the kick to tie and send it to OT, I was quite sure that that decision had sealed our fate--we were going to lose the game.  And we lost in the 2nd OT.  We couldn't even convert the "automatic" FG.

He should have gone for the 1st down to go on and score a TD.  The fact that the FG was the higher percentage play to execute, and that we made it, doesn't mean it was the right decision.  He effectively chose to put the game on the shoulders of his crappy defensive unit instead of his record-setting offense.  I will go to my grave--well, probably worrying about more important things than that football game--but I'll always believe that Lincoln made the wrong decision there.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: longhorn320 on October 02, 2019, 08:44:18 AM
Had OU failed to score and Georgia wins the game you might have felt differently
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2019, 10:10:42 AM
Same scenario applies if UNC had kicked for the tie.

No, it's not the same, because if you are behind you have four downs to employ.  If you are tied, you have only three until you reach near midfield or have 10 seconds left.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2019, 10:12:00 AM
The average two-point conversion rate was just over 40 percent in 2016. (in college).

Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CWSooner on October 02, 2019, 02:26:49 PM
Had OU failed to score and Georgia wins the game you might have felt differently
Perhaps.  But I told my wife before we even kicked the ball that I thought it was the wrong decision.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2019, 02:32:40 PM
With the OU offense, I would have been worried had they gone for it, I probably was relieved they kicked it.

Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on October 02, 2019, 03:24:57 PM
The average two-point conversion rate was just over 40 percent in 2016. (in college).


that was 3 long years ago!
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on October 02, 2019, 03:25:50 PM
No, it's not the same, because if you are behind you have four downs to employ.  If you are tied, you have only three until you reach near midfield or have 10 seconds left.
If you're tied, y'all still have 4 downs to employ
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: BrownCounty on October 02, 2019, 03:27:03 PM
No, it's not the same, because if you are behind you have four downs to employ.  If you are tied, you have only three until you reach near midfield or have 10 seconds left.

Point taken.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on October 02, 2019, 03:56:53 PM
If Clemson it tied and gets the kick off on their 25 and gains 4 yards in 3 plays, they will punt (assuming they can't run the clock to zero).

If they are behind and gain 0 yards on three downs, the go for it, by necessity.



Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on October 02, 2019, 04:10:32 PM
probably
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on October 03, 2019, 12:56:42 PM
Well, not probably, if you are tied with a minute left and don't get that first first down, you punt in all cases unless maybe it's 4th and one.

If you are behind a point, you go for it even on 4th and 20.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: CWSooner on October 03, 2019, 01:46:02 PM
There are some intangibles at work there.

Would the team down one point with a minute to play succeed in getting into FG range because it will play with abandon, or will it choke under the pressure and not even make a first down, maybe turn the ball over?  Would that same team playing under the less desperate circumstances of a tie move the ball right down the field into FG range, or even score a TD?

Would the team with the lead play prevent defense, risking giving up too much yardage but preventing a big play, or go all-out to force a turnover on downs, thereby risking a big play?  Or would that same team in a tie situation take for granted that the other team is just going to let the clock run, and thereby get caught napping?
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on October 04, 2019, 12:18:13 PM
we shall never know...........

this is why, even knowing the outcome of the game, we don't know if the decision was the correct one
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2019, 02:48:35 PM
We may not even know, in some cases, that we don't know, I don't know.

I would have kicked personally, thought so at the time, but I like that he sent a signal to his team.  They might win another couple of games just because of it.
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on October 04, 2019, 02:58:45 PM
I would have gone for two and then hoped that my defense could hold Clemson for 1:14, possibly a missed FG.

Did Clemson have 3 TOs left?

regardless, I'd rather not go to OT with a clearly superior team.  Trying to shorten the game, fewer snaps
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: longhorn320 on December 27, 2019, 03:40:32 PM
Mack won his bowl game

congrats Mack

granted it was over Temple but hey ya got to start some place
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: utee94 on December 27, 2019, 04:13:45 PM
Yup, way to go Mack!

Break out the orange slices and chocolate chip cookies for the kids!
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on December 27, 2019, 05:52:03 PM
UNC looked like a football team, to me, whereas before they looked fundamentally unsound in tackling and shedding blocks, the basics.

Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: FearlessF on December 28, 2019, 04:55:22 PM
corngrats to Mack

a good man and good coach
Title: Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
Post by: Cincydawg on December 28, 2019, 05:44:42 PM
Yeah, it is nice to see this I think.  He has brought some badly needed toughness to UNC's team.