Sunday Morning 1-14

[Drew4UTk]

for the record, Mizzou is a problem for UT this weekend coming.  they've no strange barrier to penetrate competing in neyland, and they've shown little intimidation from anyone.  even with UT playing a lot better than they have, Mizzou should come out with the win.... the truth is i don't think they will.  i think UT is playing with absolute reckless abandon right now and i think UT takes them down................... but Mizzou should rightfully be favored.  THIS would be an upset.  UK wasn't in my opinion.  Vandy may even be considered an upset if UT beats them- and that game could go either way too... 

i can't agree that the UK game was an upset.  it was pretty evident to UT fans, anyway, and that was likely why the line closed at six- the UT base dragging it down.  

the game against Charlotte was evident to a close observer UT trying to brute force exact their will- which isn't something the team is capable of right now... as it is, going for broke IS something they can do.  When Pruitt has them putting it all out there with no hobbles anchoring them to a post, and the team realizes they can compete simply by playing all out and without fear- the tides will change, and they've already started.  UT will beat either Mizzou or Vandy and bowl this year.  They may be able to beat both......... and both may be considered upsets.   

[OrangeAfroMan]

Actually from what I've read, the UK/UT line started at 3.5 and went up to 6.  

[Cincydawg]

Picking the underdog to win isn’t a great way to beat Vegas, but by all means, have at it.

My aim is to entertain and generate discussion, not "beat Vegas".  I understand probability fairly well.
Sometimes I have a feeling for an upset, and occasionally it's right.  Very occasionally, in general, about in line with statistics.
But this one seemed like an obvious call, UK put all they had on the field against UGA and lost and had nothing in the tank.

[Drew4UTk]

Actually from what I've read, the UK/UT line started at 3.5 and went up to 6.  

it really started at zero, if you want to split hairs- early betting and factoring home field pushed it to 3.5.  people i guess would be surprised to find that most if not all games start even on the lines- and move quickly and accordingly based on algorithms secured through previous activity... and focused on what will draw cash in.  the entire half point concept is hedging favoring the house... 

[Cincydawg]

So, Tennessee now has wins over Auburn and Kentucky, two mid to upper tier SEC teams.  I'll call them mid-tier, because there seems to be a lot of them this year.

But does that suggest the Vols are also mid tier late in the year?  Maybe.

Recruiting will be key for Pruitt now.  Can he attract enough key players to get above the 8 win mark in 2-3-4 years?  We'll see.

[Drew4UTk]

admiring nuances is where there is shine talking about UT.  

standing by to take incoming fire, UT didn't win a single SEC game last season- which is just beyond ridiculous and indicative of where the program was at... nothing happened roster wise over the off season that 'should' have improved that.  

at the start of this season they faced the single toughest schedule of any P5 team, facing WVU, Florida, Georgia, Auburn, Bama, USCe, and UK- while Mizzou is nothing to sneeze at... yeah, UTEP, ETSU, and Charlotte were cupcakes, but the run they faced, on paper, was the toughest... 

they played WVU decent early but fell apart.  They obviously lost 'no contest' to UF, UGA, Bama, but they played USCe to the wire and beat both UK and Auburn.  This doesn't sound like a 'great' achievement, but compared to where they were, it kinda is... they now have either/both Mizzou and Vandy in their way keeping them from bowling.  I think they will in fact bowl, which is HUGE compared to the condition they were in just last season.  

Are they 'middle tier'?  I don't know, but i do know they are better than they were- and i see a melding/gelling taking place on the team that i've not seen since Fulmer (though there was a moment when AJ was there under Butch they were playing 'above their station').  In my observation, the 'team' playing as such is the principle ingredient to describe a great team.  I am not suggesting by any measure they are 'great'- that would be comical- but i DO suggest the precursors are appearing. 

[Cincydawg]

On the other hand, so many outages were apparent to the casual observer last year than one would expect just about any new coach to fix some of them.  Playing as a team and not quitting likely was the focus of Pruitt this year, and he succeeded, at least by external appearances.

Being 0-8 in conference is an anomaly, even under Jones, they would have done somewhat better this year.

The record in year one and two may not tell as much as the eye test.

[OrangeAfroMan]

Sunday Morning 1-14 for Nov 18:
1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. LSU
4. Florida
5. Miss State
6. Texas A&M
7. Kentucky
8. Missouri
9. Auburn
10. South Carolina
11. Tennessee
12. Vanderbilt
13. Ole Miss
14. Arkansas

[OrangeAfroMan]

Maybe we need to chill on the "Tennessee is already worth a damn" talk, huh?

[Cincydawg]

I think about all anyone ever suggested is that they might be somewhere in that morass in the middle, but not "worth a damn".

They might also be a team that has a lot of "up-down" possibility in a single game.  Their good days are enough to beat Auburn on the road and their bad days are, well, bad enough to get blown out by Mizzou (which is another up-down kind of team).

[bamajoe]

By what logic could one rank Missouri, who clobbered Florida and played competitively against everyone except Alabama, be ranked 4 spaces below Florida?

[Cincydawg]

Mizzou beat Purdue, who made some waves in the B1g, lost to USCe by 2 and UK by 1 and UGA by 14.

UGA had a blocked pun returned for a TD to their advantage and won the TO margin 3-1 and the game was in Columbia.  That is a respectable showing I think by Mizzou.  I felt like a break or two the other way and the Dawgs lose that one.

They did struggle a bit with Vandy, but won, and are 7-4, with Arky remaining.

[OrangeAfroMan]

By what logic could one rank Missouri, who clobbered Florida and played competitively against everyone except Alabama, be ranked 4 spaces below Florida?

You want to award them brownie points?

[Cincydawg]

When a team is competitive in three of four losses and has 7 wins, some fairly impressive, it's not "brownie points", it is to note they appear to have a more impressive track record than teams ranked ahead of them.

They indeed have Georgia serious competition this year.  They could have won that game with a couple breaks.