When we talk about helmet schools, there's 7-8-9-10 of them or so, depending on your personal list. There are never, at one time, 7-10 elite coaches at the top of their game. There just aren't. And coaches age out/retire. 3 years ago, there were Stoops, Beamer, Spurrier - they're gone. Name guys. Big-name coordinators have gotten recent looks - Strong, Muschamp and Smart come to mind. Richt gets his walking papers. Strong doesn't work out, but is a get for USF. Muschamp doesn't work out, but USCe takes him in. Meanwhile, guys with success at smaller joints like Herman, Taggert, and McElwain get chances, and we'll see.
It's such a crap shoot. That's why I never jump on an AD at the time of a new hire. All you can do is wait and see. For every great coach who does everything well, there's 10 that do almost everything well. Zook and Muschamp could recruit, but during the game, forget it. Or a guy can know the Xs and Os, but the talent level drops. Or he gets the players, coaches them up, but screws an intern.
Saban succeeded at smaller places (Toledo, MSU), same with Urbs (BG, Utah). Personally, I'd be most comfortable (put the bad odds a little in my favor) by hiring a guy who has been the main man somewhere and done well. I feel like ADs hire coordinators because they're the hot name and the fan base goes nuts. That's a bad reason to hire someone, lol.
VT hires a guy, Fuente, who did a big turnaround at Memphis, then goes 10-4 for the Hokies. Whether it works out or not, VT showed prudence. Urban Meyer wasn't special when he was losing to Ball State in 2001. He became special. He used the better infrastructure at better jobs to lift himself up. If you dropped 2001 Meyer into Gainesville or Columbus, he isn't going 12-1 or whatever.
All you can do is try to make a 12% chance of hitting a home run into a 15% chance imo.
