Lock of the Week

[bamajoe]

Hello, football fans. Drew has requested that I dig out the old crystal ball and see what it says about games this fall. The first week's games are tough but I see one down toward the bottom that looks like a lock to me. Georgia is -13.5 at home over Appy State. I know Appy beat Michigan about 6 years ago but Georgia with virtually their whole team coming back including Chubb and Michel, their all world quarterback, their whole defense and playing at home should be able to cover 13.5 points.

We would like other posters to pitch in and pick your own locks also. I don't want to be the only one proving my ignorance.  

[Drew4UTk]

Awesome, Joe!!!!

looking forward to hearing your take for the rest of the season... you've always shot a pretty high percentage.

[MichiFan87]

That Michigan game was 10 years ago, though they played each other again when Hoke was coach, which was a blowout win.

Georgia's biggest victory margin last year was 14 points over South Carolina and UL Lafayette. They only beat Nicholls State by TWO POINTS, Missouri by 1, and Kentucky by 3.

App State took Tennessee to OT and won 10 games. Yes, they got dominated at home by Miami FL, but their only other loss was by 4 to Troy, who challenged Clemson.

Meanwhile, I'll take Temple +17 against Notre Dame.

[bamajoe]

Those are great points. Georgia did struggle last year and they may struggle again this year.  I am simply looking at what I believe to be gross mismatches all over the field in Georgia's favor. If Georgia can't cover 13.5 against Appy State they are in trouble again. I am looking for something like 42-10 in Georgia's favor.

[ALA2262]

I like to do an Underdog Lock of the Week, although the last time I tried it a couple of years ago I didn't do so well. Usually I focus on a home team that I believe will win SU. But I am not picking the Upset Lock of the Week. I am picking the Underdog Lock of the Week.

Week One ( I know, I know we had some games last week but that was not Week One. That is the first week in which ALL teams are eligible to schedule games. That was not the case last week.) Anyway.

Florida +3.5 vs Michigan. I believe UF wins SU.

[Cincydawg]

NCSU over USCe big.

I think NCSU is going to have a 9-3 kind of year and look good in game one, winning something like 35-17.

Oklahoma State also blows out Tulsa big and beats the line of -18.

I think Louisville pummels Purdue and beats -25.

I like Michigan over Florida also, but not more than 4 points probably, close low scoring boring game, so boring both squads decide this isn't their year and they forfeit the rest of the season.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-week-1-lines-game-odds-best-games-could-be-the-closest/

[MrNubbz]

 I don't want to be the only one proving my ignorance.  

Well I can begin & end right there!Use to be pawn in the wagering wars.Hooks & the Vig left me a tad bit unsettled and a few farthings short.Good Luck,if I see something enticing I may chime in - then you bet the other way

[MrNubbz]

Clucko the Chicken likes UCLA....hmm

[MrNubbz]

Leaning toward Michigan,while they lost a lot from last season Fla will be woefully thin with starting Rb & WR's out.Hurst & Gary should dominate up front.M should win this by at least 7pts

[bamajoe]

Cincy, I think the NCSU USC game will be close. I think Muschamp did a very good job rallying SC last year and that confidence should extend into the new season. Jake Bentley appears to be a very good qb although only a sophomore. If I were to take this game I would go with the chickens.

[bamajoe]

I tend to agree with you about Florida-Michigan. Initially I was going with Florida, but how can a team focus when ten players including their best receiver-punt returner and their best rb are suspended? I would take Michigan in this game.

[bamajoe]

I hope yall bet the farm on Georgia last weekend because if you did you would now own two farms.

This weeks menu looks a lot more enticing as there are a number of games that look enticing to me. Penn State -20.5 over Pitt looks intriguing to me. That is a rivalry game and Pitt ain't bad. Penn State may be good but I don't see them covering 20.5.

Northwestern is -3 against Duke at Duke. Duke probably wins this game straight up.

Notre Dame is favored by 6 over Georgia. Why? Georgia probably wins this game straight up. Easy money.

Those are all good bets but they don't include my lock. That honor goes to Minnesota who is +1 to Oregon State. I know the game is in Oregon but Oregon State has been horrible through their first two games. Minnesota has a decent team and PF Fleck as coach. Take Minnesota and the point.

FWIW, for information purposes I am using Danny Sheridan's odds.

[Drew4UTk]

i'd have agreed with you concerning UGA up until the announcement the starting QB is out... that's gonna take a toll. 

whatever UT is favored over Indiana State, half it and take the under.  they are going to be still worn out from last nights game. 

[MichiFan87]

Minnesota was horrible against Buffalo, too. They could barely run the ball even though they return two very productive RBs from last year's team. Their QBs are even worse than Mitch Leidner was last year..... Oregon State isn't good, either, but they at least showed some semblance of an offense against Colorado State.

Not sure what to make of Notre Dame - Georgia, but Temple was pretty decent last year, and the domers dominated them, while Georgia is without their starting QB.

Northwestern certainly didn't look good against Nevada, but they have a decent backfield and a solid defense. They tend to play their worst in September, but they did win 24-13 last year.