#18 Wisconsin (2-1) at Iowa (3-0) Game Week

[847badgerfan]

Yeah, that's the really crappy thing about being the BTN night game.  It's rarely a big game, but when it's your team, you gotta watch...and usually miss other actually big games.

It's on Fox, not BTN.

[ELA]

It's on Fox, not BTN.

I mean MSU.  USed to be if you were on in prime time it was a big game.  It sucks when you are the BTN prime time game, because you end up missing all of the good games because your game, which should be at noon, is now prime time just to fill a BTN slot.

[Honestbuckeye]

Example A of why I think the CFP has diminished the regular season even farther, and why I think "best regular season" is sort of a farce now.  ESPNU radio was discussing most important games this weekend, and one of the co-hosts brought up this one saying it was a de facto West title game because the winner would essentially be 2 games ahead of the loser with tiebreaker, and they didn't see anyone else in the division posing a threat.  That was totally poo pooed by the other co-host, who basically said "so what, neither team is going to the Playoff."  When a Week 4 game between the best two teams in a Power 5 division is irrelevant because they aren't currently in the CFP race, I have a hard time saying that's the "best" regular season.  Maybe the regular season where a loss most greatly impacts you, but it to me seems like the sport with the greatest number of totally irrelevant regular season games, if the narrative is singularly focused on the CFP...which I think it has become.  My their logic, until proven otherwise, any game not involving Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, OSU or Oklahoma is irrelevant.

Amen

[LittlePig]

Thank you for reminding me why I don't watch or listen to ESPN, except to watch actual games.

[847badgerfan]

Just saw that Neuville and Van Ginkel are both listed as game time decisions. I hate that!


The Badgers need both of them to stay in this game.

[ELA]

***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***

#18 Wisconsin Badgers (2-1) at Iowa Hawkeyes (3-0)

8:30 - Iowa City, IA - FOX

This was a game I had pegged as an Iowa upset win in the preseason.  That was before the Iowa defense looked otherworldly, and Wisconsin's trench play looked as down to Earth as we've seen.  While Wisconsin's style of attack has sometimes come up short in the biggest stage, it has been nearly foolproof in grinding inferior teams into the ground.  That changed last week as not only did BYU win, they beat Bucky at their own game, getting tons of pressure on the outside against the Wisconsin tackles.  They were successful in bottling up Jonathan Taylor, who still got 117 yards on the ground, but needed 26 carries to do so, resulting in the second lowest ypc game of his career, ahead of only the Big Ten Championship Game loss to Ohio State last year.  That has to give hope to an Iowa defense which is playing with its hair on fire, leading the nation in S&P+.  Their 3.5 yards per play allowed is best in the Big Ten.  Iowa has developed a reputation on defense under Kirk Ferentz, but after losing 7 starters, including two unanimous first team All-Americans, from a defense that finished in the bottom half of the Big Ten a year ago has been a shocking start.  None of that matters if Iowa can't get a little bit more offensively, meaning a lot more offensively than they got in this game a year ago.  Coming off their 55-24 drubbing of Ohio State, the Hawkeyes looked to keep their momentum rolling into Madison.  Instead, they put up one of the worst offensive performances I've ever seen, getting outgained 382-66, and having nearly as many turnovers (3) as first downs (5).  The game was only a mildly respectable 38-14 due to a pair of long pick sixes for Joshua Jackson.  Bucky racked up 4 sacks in the game, which was not out of the usual for them.  This year, the play up front defensively has been concerning, something we never say about Wisconsin.  This year?  Their adjusted sack rate is 90th in the nation.  The secondary is playing better than I would have expected, but they need to find a way to get more pressure.  If Nate Stanley gets a clean pocket, it looks like he has shaken the rust from the beginning of the season, when Iowa took care of Northern Illinois in spite of his play.  Last week he threw for over 300 yards on 82% passing.  Kinnick Stadium at night is always unpleasant, but when Iowa is really good, it can become nearly impossible.  I think that and their defense, and a slightly declined Wisconsin defensive line is enough to give the Hawkeyes control of the division.

IOWA 22, WISCONSIN 17

[medinabuckeye1]

Responding to @ELA and @Honestbuckeye :

I disagree with the quoted ESPN guy's position.

Well, actually not entirely. I agree in that I do not think that either the Hawkeyes or the Badgers WILL go to the playoffs. However, I disagree with his casual dismissal of them because I absolutely do not think that is a done deal yet.

In four years of the CFP no undefeated or 1-loss P5 CG winner has EVER missed the CFP. The closest we ever came was 2014 when the B12 had two 1-loss teams. If they had been arranged then as they are now then one of them would have joined the ACC, SEC, B1G, and Pac CG winners to make five one-loss or undefeated P5 CG winners.

Iowa controls their own destiny to get to 13-0. Wisconsin controls their own destiny to get to 12-1. 13-0 would almost certainly net a CFP berth for Iowa. I would guess that 12-1 would be very likely to get Wisconsin in.

[Anonymous Coward]

Yeah, if Iowa wins this, they'll probably be a 90+% bet to get to the BTCG. And perhaps a 30+% bet to get there undefeated with only @PSU as a legit remaining challenge for a contender.

[ELA]

Responding to @ELA and @Honestbuckeye :

I disagree with the quoted ESPN guy's position.

Well, actually not entirely. I agree in that I do not think that either the Hawkeyes or the Badgers WILL go to the playoffs. However, I disagree with his casual dismissal of them because I absolutely do not think that is a done deal yet.

In four years of the CFP no undefeated or 1-loss P5 CG winner has EVER missed the CFP. The closest we ever came was 2014 when the B12 had two 1-loss teams. If they had been arranged then as they are now then one of them would have joined the ACC, SEC, B1G, and Pac CG winners to make five one-loss or undefeated P5 CG winners.

Iowa controls their own destiny to get to 13-0. Wisconsin controls their own destiny to get to 12-1. 13-0 would almost certainly net a CFP berth for Iowa. I would guess that 12-1 would be very likely to get Wisconsin in.

Even if they don't though, I hate what the casual dismissal of any non CFP impactful game means for why I love college football.

[Anonymous Coward]

Even if they don't though, I hate what the casual dismissal of any non CFP impactful game means for why I love college football.

As a practitioner of the church of the pre-BCS postseason, I really hate the question I'm about to ask, but what outcome do you think is most likely to re-up regular season meaning: growing the CFP to 8 or 16, or reducing it back to 2?

[Hawkinole]

Yeah, if Iowa wins this, they'll probably be a 90+% bet to get to the BTCG. And perhaps a 30+% bet to get there undefeated with only @PSU as a legit remaining challenge for a contender.

Iowa has three currently undefeated teams on its schedule, Indiana, Minnesota, and Penn State.  Iowa may have a 30% chance of defeating Penn State, if Iowa wins Saturday, but I don't think the odds of an undefeated regular season would approach 30%. We'd have to ask Medina who knows more about probability than just about anyone.

[medinabuckeye1]

Iowa has three currently undefeated teams on its schedule, Indiana, Minnesota, and Penn State.  Iowa may have a 30% chance of defeating Penn State, if Iowa wins Saturday, but I don't think the odds of an undefeated regular season would approach 30%. We'd have to ask Medina who knows more about probability than just about anyone.

I honestly think that the worldwide leader's FPI does a pretty good job at this sort of thing.
You are absolutely right, even if we assume an Iowa win this weekend and a 30% chance of Iowa beating PSU, their chance of getting to 12-0 would be nowhere near 30%. It would only be that good if their other seven opponents had a combined 0% chance of beating them. My supposition is that none of their other opponents would have a good chance individually but they would have probably a much better than 50% chance that one of them would upset the Hawkeyes.

[medinabuckeye1]

I *THINK* that this is the appropriate way to calculate it but a stats major could correct me:

1) assume that Iowa wins this weekend.
2) assume that Iowa has a 30% chance of beating PSU.
3) assume that Iowa has a 90% chance of beating each of their other seven remaining opponents.

Their chance of going 12-0 would be:
.30x.90x.90x.90x.90x.90x.90x.90=14.35%

[Brutus Buckeye]

If the Hawkeyes win, they might just run the table. 

The only other game that really stands in their way is Penn St.