Teams that could make noise in the SEC this year

[Cincydawg]

So, the "media" have chosen the two teams for the SEC Championship game, so we may as well skip the preliminaries.  What?  You don't want to?  Surely the media have to be right, eh?

So, who might upend the season?  

In the East, South Carolina hosts UGA and could finish 6-2 without some stretch of imagination.  If the Dawgs go 6-2 also, USCe is in the Dance obviously.  Florida is in the same boat of course with the game at a neutral site.  I don't think anyone else is ready to sneak into the mix.

UF plays @ MSU which could be a battle but gets LSU and USCe at home.

USCe hosts UGA but gets UF on the road (and Ole Miss) but A&M at home.  They have a decent shot at 6-2 I think, if not 7-1.

MSU gets LSU and Bama on the road and Auburn at home plus UF at home.  Not looking propitious to me.

Auburn has to play AT Bama, UGA, and MSU and gets LSU at home.  Ouch also.

LSU gets MSU, Bama, and UGA at home and Auburn and UF on the road.  They play every SEC team apparently good this year except USCe.  

The West to me looks like everybody is going to beat up everybody else except Bama who appears very likely to be 7-1 or 8-0, to me.  

[Cincydawg]

Could anyone else in the East sneak in?

I'd pick Missouri to have the best chance, then UK, Tenn, and Vandy, with diminishing probabilities.  They play @Bama and host UGA and get Arky at home from the West.  If they could sneak up on UGA, which is possible with their firepower, well, they go on the road to UF and USCe, not an easy row to hoe.

[MikeDeTiger]

LSU has the usual questions, i.e., will the offense resemble anything coherent?  Supposedly the QB spot is still in competition, but it's almost certainly going to be the xfer from Ohio State.  The O-line is shuffled some but returns a number of guys who got plenty time last year.  They likely won't start out the best, but should be very good by the end of the season.  Next year they should be a preseason contender for best in conference.  They did just take a hit with Ingram's indefinite suspension due to the dreaded unspecified "violation of team rules."  

The FG specialist xfer has looked good in camp so far.  Last year a "serviceable" kicker would've picked up W's against Troy and Notre Dame.  Not that the season would've qualitatively been much different, but 11-2 sounds better than 9-4, and would probably reflect in people's preseason views on the team.  Made me miss Les.  You never had to worry about a FG kicker with him.  Always was a couple of solid guys on scholly.  

The defense, on paper, stands to be the best LSU has seen in a number of years.  They should be really, really good, even by LSU standards.  There's a question at one CB spot.  No questions if Fulton should be cleared by the NCAA this week.  The line will do a great job at the main thing Aranda wants from it--occupying blockers and allowing the LBs to clean up on tackles, hit gaps, and pressure the QB.  But it can hit another level if one or more of the DLs can contribute more in the big-play department themselves....push the pocket and make tackles behind the line, etc.  That would take them from "tough SEC out" to "one of the best in the country."  

Big question in my mind is can Orgeron be a good gameday coach?  

This is a team that could make some noise.  Probably a year away on paper from a legit division contender, but will surprise some people.  It's hard to fathom the 7-5 record people are projecting.....LSU getting to 8 wins is the most reliable thing in the SEC at the moment.  

[Cincydawg]

"LSU gets MSU, Bama, and UGA at home and Auburn and UF on the road.".

That says a lot I think about their prospects.

[MikeDeTiger]

Well @ Auburn is a loss.  LSU wins there only slightly more than AU wins in Baton Rouge, which is never.  Bad, bad things happen to LSU on the plains.  These used to be slobber-knockers, but just as often lately the home team not only wins, but beats the tar out of the visitor.

The rest of them are fair game.  The Swamp is tough but Florida doesn't scare me yet.  MSU, despite having the conference's best D-line, doesn't have enough overall to scare me.  Alabama and UGA are better on paper, but not such that LSU has no shot at home, and getting one or both of those wouldn't surprise me.  As would losing to somebody they should beat.  

There's not a lot to hype, it's mainly just potential.  There's a lot more potential here than last season though, particularly in the trenches.  And it's worth noting that despite ridiculous games against Syracuse, Troy, and Notre Dame, they did hit a 6-2 conference mark, best in a few years.  

We'll know more after Miami.  Nobody is picking us, but I'm not so sure about Miami.  They'll be a good litmus test for the first part of the season for sure, but they also made their hay last year against a backloaded schedule that they performed poorly against once the better teams came calling.  Richt is a better coach than Orgeron, so that's something.  

[Cincydawg]

I can see LSU losing to Auburn and Bama and finishing 6-2 in conference.  I like their chances against Miami.

Obviously, 6-2 with those two losses probably won't get them into the CG, but perhaps they can upend Bama.  IF they beat Bama of course, 6-2 with a loss to UGA becomes a path to  Atlanta potentially.

[MikeDeTiger]

Assuming Alabama is the favorite for the West again, Auburn could make some noise.  They've got the personnel and coaching to play with anyone.  Only question I need to see answered for them is who totes the rock, and how well.  Malzahn's offense has always worked best when he's had that one special back.  It's a QB friendly and centric system, but it seems to hinge nevertheless on a standout back who turns the key to start up the rest of the engine. 

[Cincydawg]

Maybe there is weirdness and Auburn loses to Alabama and Georgia, Alabama loses to LSU and MSU, and LSU loses to Auburn and Georgia.  That would be fun.  But Auburn would go to Atlanta, where they play their third straight game in a month or so.

[MikeDeTiger]

I suspect there's more than 2 losses for LSU somewhere.  Hard to say where exactly, but that's what you get when you don't trust the coach.  And it's all on paper....none of it means anything until I see the teams play a few games.  At this point I mainly compare preseason expectations wrt to previous LSU teams and how they stack up there, but that doesn't say anything about what's going on in the rest of the league.  And often as not things don't work out like you expect anyway.  Sometimes on paper LSU has looked like a world-beater, but couldn't produce.  Other times they've looked like they're a year away and they set the world on fire.  Yet other times they turn out just like I thought.  

Only pretty sure thing I think at this point is they'll exceed the 7-5 prognostications I've seen.  That's asking a lot of a program whose floor--I mean absolute disaster years--has been 8 wins for as long as some of these kids have been alive.  Whether or not beating expectations counts as "making noise" is debatable.  

Not sure where it's going to come from in the East.  UGA is ahead of the pack by a wide margin.  Maybe, MAYBE usc could surprise me.  It'd be a pretty big upset if anybody besides UGA threatens for the division more than halfway through the SEC schedule.  Just not that impressive a group over in the East at the moment, and UGA could potentially dominate even a very tough division.  

[ALA2262]

LSU. Best case 5-7 (2-6). Worst case 3-9 (0-8). Reminiscent of 2000 Bama which was ranked Preseason #3 and won 3 games. Orgeron is no better than Dumbose.

[bamajoe]

 

y  Sep. 2		Miami (FL) Hurricanes  AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX   W
Saturday  Sep. 8		Southeastern Louisiana Lions W  Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Saturday  Sep. 15		at Auburn Tigers  Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL L
Saturday  Sep. 22		Louisiana Tech Bulldogs    Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA  W
Saturday  Sep. 29		Ole Miss Rebels  Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA  W
Saturday  Oct. 6		at Florida Gators  Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL  W
Saturday  Oct. 13		Georgia Bulldogs  Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA  W
Saturday  Oct. 20		Mississippi State Bulldogs (HC)  Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA  W
Saturday  Oct. 27		OFF
Saturday  Nov. 3		Alabama Crimson Tide  Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA  L
Saturday  Nov. 10		at Arkansas Razorbacks   W  D.W.R. Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Saturday  Nov. 17		Rice Owls  W  Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Saturday  Nov. 24		at Texas A&M Aggies   W  Kyle Field, College Station, TX
Saturday  Dec. 1

I have a little different perspective about LSU. I think they are very talented and their season revolves around the Miami game that I believe they win. That win would give them some confidence and I think they can beat Ole Miss, Arkansas, Mississippi
State, Texas A&M, Florida and even Mississippi State. I'm going 9-3. If they lose to the overrated Hurricanes all bets are off and mediocracy prevails.

[OrangeAfroMan]

Florida could start 7-0 or 4-3.  Wind up 11-1 or 5-7.  
I'd put the "probable losses" at 2, with 4 toss-ups.  
That would lend itself to a 8-4 season.

Split MSU/LSU
Get 2 out of 3 from UGA/MIZ/USCe
See what happens in Tallahassee.
Assuming we take care of the Vols.  Might be looking at 9-3/10-2.  Not likely, but there's a path.

[ALA2262]

Florida could start 7-0 or 4-3.  Wind up 11-1 or 5-7.  
I'd put the "probable losses" at 2, with 4 toss-ups.  
That would lend itself to a 8-4 season.

Split MSU/LSU
Get 2 out of 3 from UGA/MIZ/USCe
See what happens in Tallahassee.
Assuming we take care of the Vols.  Might be looking at 9-3/10-2.  Not likely, but there's a path.

I have UF 9-3 (6-2). Losses at MSU, UGA, and at FSU.

[Cincydawg]

For UF:

UK - 90% chance of a win, probably more
@ Tenn - 85% chance of a win
@ MSU - 50% chance
LSU - 65%
@ Vandy - 90%
UGA - 35%
Mizzou - 85%
USCe - 75%
@ FSU - 50%

Presuming the Gators are at least "pretty good", they could be 9-3 easily enough barring bad injuries.

They also might not be "pretty good" but only half decent.  And yes they can beat UGA.