Chance of winning and the betting line

[MarqHusker]

Btw: Bill Snyder and KSU ATS in your portfolio the past 25 yrs was an amazing investment on an annualized basis.  Performance hasn't been as strong as bettors started to get wise lately but it's been a Five Star play.

I believe he was 161-111 ATS from 89 to 05. 4-10 in bowls ats.  

He was about 66% during his 2nd tour at KSU, though I think a little lower now.

Mike Gundy has also performed high ATS. Rich Rod was a terrible bet iirc.

[Cincydawg]

So, no team or coach can beat the spread consistently for very long before the market adjusts.

Bettors aren't dumb.  Well, some are, enough to make the others have a shot.

[Cincydawg]

I see an ad on CNBC fairly often (I watch while eating lunch occasionally) for some fellow who claims to have a sure fire way to invest in stocks and make huge bucks, and of course he's selling his DVD and book.  I figure that a method that really did win BIG, not just modestly, in the markets would soon obsolete itself, really it would happen immediately, and no long work, unless it was kept very quiet and secret known to few.

[Cincydawg]

Ergo, if I found some fairly obvious way to beat the spread, well, the "market" would adjust.

[FearlessF]

I see an ad on CNBC fairly often (I watch while eating lunch occasionally) for some fellow who claims to have a sure fire way to invest in stocks and make huge bucks, and of course he's selling his DVD and book.  I figure that a method that really did win BIG, not just modestly, in the markets would soon obsolete itself, really it would happen immediately, and no long work, unless it was kept very quiet and secret known to few.

hah, if you can make huge bucks in the stock market, you certainly don't need to sell books and DVDs

[medinabuckeye1]

When finding a bookie was harder, or when lines had more of a spread between bid/ask it was common for the line to be a little juicier in helmet teams home market.  Nebraska was 2 or 3 pts more expensive to bet in Lincoln than the posted odds at a sportsbook during my college days. There was a market premium other wise the action was too heavy on the home team .

That might have created an interesting arbitrage opportunity.  I'm thinking through this as I type:
Suppose that Nebraska is favored by 6.5 nationally and 9.5 in Lincoln.  So in Lincoln I could bet $1,000 on Nebraska's Opponent +9.5 then drive to Chicago and bet $1,000 on Nebraska -6.5.  Three possibilities:

• Nebraska loses or wins by <6.5.  I win the bet on Nebraska's opponent and lose the bet on Nebraska.  I'm out a net $100.  
• Nebraska wins by 7-9 points.  I win both bets and make $2,000.  
• Nebraska wins by >9.5.  I win the bet on Nebraska and lose the bet on Nebraska's opponent.  I'm out a net $100.  

Over the course of a (12 game back then) season I'd only need to hit #2 once.  Ie, in a 12 game season I could lose $100 11 times and win $2,000 once and I'd be up $900.  If I hit #2 any more than that I'd really make a killing.  

[ALA2262]

That might have created an interesting arbitrage opportunity.  I'm thinking through this as I type:
Suppose that Nebraska is favored by 6.5 nationally and 9.5 in Lincoln.  So in Lincoln I could bet $1,000 on Nebraska's Opponent +9.5 then drive to Chicago and bet $1,000 on Nebraska -6.5.  Three possibilities:

• Nebraska loses or wins by <6.5.  I win the bet on Nebraska's opponent and lose the bet on Nebraska.  I'm out a net $100.  
• Nebraska wins by 7-9 points.  I win both bets and make $2,000.  
• Nebraska wins by >9.5.  I win the bet on Nebraska and lose the bet on Nebraska's opponent.  I'm out a net $100.  

Over the course of a (12 game back then) season I'd only need to hit #2 once.  Ie, in a 12 game season I could lose $100 11 times and win $2,000 once and I'd be up $900.  If I hit #2 any more than that I'd really make a killing.  

Called "hitting the middle". Most famous case was Super Bowl XIII. Called Black Sunday in the bookie business. Line fluctuated between -3.5 and -4.5  with the Steelers favored over the Cowboys. The "middle" bettors gave the 3.5 and took the +4.5. Steelers won by 4 and the bookies took a beating.
http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/super-bowl-2014-odds-line-favorite-broncos-seahawks-betting-las-vegas-1979/14ujqgfsx04sw15iyzfzkbgx9f

[medinabuckeye1]

Called "hitting the middle". Most famous case was Super Bowl XIII. Called Black Sunday in the bookie business. Line fluctuated between -3.5 and -4.5  with the Steelers favored over the Cowboys. The "middle" bettors gave the 3.5 and took the +4.5. Steelers won by 4 and the bookies took a beating.
http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/super-bowl-2014-odds-line-favorite-broncos-seahawks-betting-las-vegas-1979/14ujqgfsx04sw15iyzfzkbgx9f

Thanks for sharing, interesting read.