2019 Senseless Recruiting Jibberish

[847badgerfan]

I think STARZ!! are better for guys playing WR, QB, LB, CB and (possibly) S. Much of that is related to speed, which can't be coached. The trench positions and RB (and maybe S) are where the services seem to miss the most on STARZ!!

[betarhoalphadelta]

I think OL is a lot more of a predictor for RB success than STARZ!

Is Jonathan Taylor the "best" RB in the country? Always tough to tell, because the Wisconsin system and OL will make pedestrian RBs look good, good RBs look great, and great RBs look outstanding. 

[Mdot21]

I think OL is a lot more of a predictor for RB success than STARZ!

Is Jonathan Taylor the "best" RB in the country? Always tough to tell, because the Wisconsin system and OL will make pedestrian RBs look good, good RBs look great, and great RBs look outstanding.

Agree 100%. 
Bama is a great example of this as well. They’ve been a plug and play system for RBs just because their OL’s and run system was so great. Trent and Derrick Henry were all-time great in college. Not so much in the NFL.

[Mdot21]

Purdue was late in the running for Wandale when he chose Kentucky. I don't think we were ever a favorite, but we made the final 5 and got an OV. The analysts would have creamed themselves if he'd ended up on the same team as Rondale.
Really hoping that David Bell chooses Purdue. 247 has him 90% crystal ball to Purdue, and he plans to make his announcement at the Army All-American Game.

Bell is a Purdue lock.

[Mdot21]

I think STARZ!! are better for guys playing WR, QB, LB, CB and (possibly) S. Much of that is related to speed, which can't be coached. The trench positions and RB (and maybe S) are where the services seem to miss the most on STARZ!!

Disagree on the RB position and STARZ. Typically the 5*’s backs pan out at a high rate. Look back through the rankings, they typically nail those more than the other positions.
Completely disagree on QBs and LBs and the STARZ. Those positions are as much of a crap shoot as OL. Those 3 positions are basically worthless when it comes to STARZ gazing. Just so much about playing QB you don’t know till he’s out there doing it at this level. LBs are so hit and miss because it’s such an instinct based position and speed really doesn’t matter as much as play recognition, awareness, instinct, shedding blockers.  

[EastAthens]

Todd Gurley, Nick Chubb, Sony Michel and D'Andre Swift were all 5 stars who played like 5 stars.  Zamir White is the latest but he tore his ACL last summer.  By all accounts, he is the next star here.

[Entropy]

System fit also matters....  you can be a 5 star and not fit in a system.   On average, stars indicate talent level/potential.   At the micro or individual level, they mean little.  

[847badgerfan]

Disagree on the RB position and STARZ. Typically the 5*’s backs pan out at a high rate. Look back through the rankings, they typically nail those more than the other positions.  

I started with 2015. I'm not seeing what you're seeing at RB. They did pretty good in 2014 though.
They are doing a little better on the hit rate with 5* QB's than with RB. QB is getting screwy though, with all the transfers and stuff.

[FearlessF]

the services giving out starz get lucky sometimes

they aren't always wrong

[ELA]

Sounds like MSU's Plan B at QB after losing Dwan Mathis to OSU (despite the fake story about them trying to flip BC commit Sam Johnson) is Naperville, IL's Payton Thorne, who committed to WMU over NC State, but who MSU offered this week.

[MaximumSam]

4 star LB Tommy Eichenberg commits to the Bucks out of Cleveland

[Anonymous Coward]

I think STARZ!! are better for guys playing WR, QB, LB, CB and (possibly) S. Much of that is related to speed, which can't be coached. The trench positions and RB (and maybe S) are where the services seem to miss the most on STARZ!!

If you add DL (probably one of the service's strongest correlations to All-American and NFL draft status), I'm sure you're right.
But saying that the recruiting services having a stronger star correlation for those positions isn't the same thing as saying that there is no correlation for OL and RB. There's a positive correlation for every position. Unsurprisingly, it varies. Making OL and RB predictive but more weakly than is typical.
So for *every* position, absent more reliable inside info, you should always bet on the recruiting services. That there are exceptions is beside the point. Most often, STARZ come out on top.
Except for Wisconsin.

[847badgerfan]

Well, outside of the services, I like to rely on coaches I trust. Camp or late-bloomer offers from guys like Don Brown, for example, are huge. Dantonio excels there too. It's not just UW. Iowa does well. NU too.


There are a lot of kids out there who don't shine on film until they are seniors. For them, it's too late to get to 4/5 STARZ!! status, but it's not too late for them to get big offers and play like STARZ!! in college.

[Cincydawg]

Somebody somewhere has probably done a correlation between STARZ and rankings 3-4 year down the road.

I'm guessing it's a pretty good correlation with some obvious outliers.

FSU might be an example lately of one, an "anti-Wiscons" as it were.

Army did well this year.