Are we in a coaching salary bubble?

[MikeDeTiger]

There's no real free market involved in these decisions, just ADs who face minimal consequences for bad choices (they have their own parachutes) getting out-negotiated by agents.  It's similar to the expose the LA Times had on the way Disney has manipulated the part-time city council in Anaheim.  The value added (or replacement wins) by most of these coaches over other options is minimal in relation to the money they are spending.

We seem to clearly be in a bubble on college football income.  

In 2000, people flipped their lids when we paid Saban over $1 million.  At the time there were only three million dollar coaches in all of cfb--Bobby Bowden, Steve Spurrier, and Philip Fulmer.  Saban made #4.  

Now Dan Mullen--he of the 45% career SEC winning percentage--is getting $6 mil/yr.  Matt Luke, an interim caretaker coach, apparently merits over $3 mil (this is roughly around what the Dolphins paid Saban, a sum LSU would never have dreamed of matching in 2005).  And before anyone talks about inflation, let me direct you to the Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation calculator, which will disabuse you of any notion that these increases are inflation driven.  

Linky

The reality is, athletic directors are getting their asses handed to them in negotiations. Consistently, and regularly, for several years. They are significantly overpaying for mediocre and average coaches, and every stupid deal they ink drives the market up a little higher for the next one. The agents are absolutely running circles around ADs, and laughing all the way to the bank.

But the endless fount of money is about to come to an end.  ESPN is in serious financial difficulty, and the next SEC TV contract won’t look anything like the current one.  A stadium addition frenzy has led to empty seats, every week, across the SEC.  And if something can’t go on forever, it won’t.

In the meantime, we've got situations like Fisher/FSU/TAMU....

If I'm FSU, I'm letting him walk out of that contract.  And if I’m Jimmy Sexton, I’m all but begging Jimbo to keep that deal.  Aggie can’t be dumb enough to approximate that, can they?  

Florida State should make it crystal clear that there will be no new contract or no raise, and if Jimbo wants to walk, then by all means.  Because he has the most one-sided coaching deal I've ever seen.  To the point that I'm a little surprised Jimmy Sexton would really walk away from it.  Although based on the Sumlin deal, TAMU may be an even easier mark.  

None of this should be taken as a slight on anyone's coaching acumen.  All examples are just that...examples....not of coaching prowess, but of market conditions I don't expect to last.

[Shiner]

Uh oh... I'm back on the SEC board.  The Aggies must be an SEC team again.  

Anyway... as much as I'd like to argue against your comments re: Fisher/A&M.  I can't.  I'm not sure that he's worth the money we're throwing at him, and I have every confidence whatever contract we sign him up to will give him all the leverage in the world and us nothing but large checks to write no matter what transpires during his tenure in College Station.  It's full on amateur hour when our admins write up contracts for new coaches.  

[MikeDeTiger]

Right.....he's the most glaring example right now, so I'm singling out A&M more than the landscape dictates, because in truth all Ath. Depts. are part of this right now.

Without looking it up, I think Orgeron's deal is between 3 and 4 mil....whatever it is, it's well below the league average for "premier" programs, and it was considered a steal.  But think about it....LSU just got rid of its winningest coach in history to hire Ole Miss' worst coach in history....saving a little over a mil/yr. to do it, but while paying him way more than we would've paid to keep Saban just 12 years ago.  

On the surface, it's clearly out of whack, and I don't think this is sustainable.  I'm just not convinced the $ is always going to be there.  

[eltigrerex]

In short, yes, I think we are in a coaching salary bubble. Ludicrous is what it is. But I don't think it pops for another couple years... 

[rolltidefan]

it'll pop not long after the tv contract bubble pops, which will likely be the next round of negotiations at the rate people are moving from traditional tv packages to hulu/netflix/etc.

once ath dept don't have the revenue streams to justify the absurd coaching salaries, they'll be reigned in out of financial necessity.

[847badgerfan]

It will pop when all of the no-shows in the stadiums turn into no-buys.

Additionally, not as many kids are watching these days. They are busy playing Lacrosse and soccer and hockey.

Then there is the concussion thing.

Nothing is forever. Enjoy it while we have it because it won't be long.

[eltigrerex]

I was talking with some family this past weekend regarding the idea that helmets must rapidly evolve, the rules must be changed (red cards, maybe?) or some blend of both--else, football will go completely away in a shorter time than I might have imagined just last year. It requires too many bodies and too much gear to justify it if enough kids aren't playing the game at all levels and being protected. 

Might be a niche sport in the future but "amateur" level combat sports are actively in their death throes... 

[847badgerfan]

I think football would be a lot safer if you got rid of the helmets. I know when I played I considered it a weapon. With my bare noggin probably not so much.

[OrangeAfroMan]

You're not 6'4", 230 lb and can run a 4.6, are you?  That's what you'd be trying to tackle/block with a bare noggin.  Good luck.

[rolltidefan]

that's rugby basically.

[Mdot21]

2000 was 17 years ago. $1 mil then with inflation now- maybe $1.5-2. So you're right, not THAT dramatic of a jump just based on that. Real thing is this- there wasn't the amount of TV money back then as there is now. Conferences/schools have seen FAT increases in their TV checks and some have even started their own TV networks which has brought in insane amounts of money. Not to mention prices of tickets/concessions have gone up across the board. More and more luxury boxes have been built as well- and those cost thousands and thousands of dollars per game for someone to purchase.

There's just more money generated. Naturally the coaches are going to get more of it.

Very few of them are worth the money. Some of them are underpaid. I'd say OSU is getting Urban at a discount compared to what other coaches make.

[Mdot21]

also the TV networks aren't going to pay up on the next contract narrative...not entirely true.

Live sports are the only thing people watch on TV anymore. That Auburn-Alabama game was CBS' most watched game in years and the highest rated college football game of the season. Fox Sports said the Michigan-OSU game was the highest rated college football broadcast that Fox has ever had. That was with a noon kick and Michigan being just mehhhh. Last years M-OSU game was the highest rated CFB game of that season on any network- it was a 10.4, almost 50% higher than the next closest game which was ND-Texas at a 7.0- and it was the 2nd highest rated college football game ABC has ever broadcast. The highest rated college football game ABC has ever broadcast? #2 Michigan v. #1 Ohio State in 2006.

BAMA, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Florida, Nebraska - that's premium content that draws premium live tv ratings. The networks will still pay for that premium content.

SEC and B1G will be fine because they draw enormous live TV ratings. Other conferences....maybe not so much.

[Cincydawg]

How much of the revenue stream comes from TV these days?  Half?  More?

I'm going to guess half, while suspecting it really is 68.37% overall for P5 programs.

So, when TV dries up, so does a large part of said revenue, and then coaches don't get paid as much and ADs start looking for former assistants who can be had for less (Kirby Smart for example).

Obviously you can have a situation like Oregon or Oklahoma State where a single individual can write enormous checks.

But, you can get a very high priced coach who ends up being no better than "so-so".  So, you might be as well off on an assistant or coach at a lower level.

[Cincydawg]

Back in the day, I worked on developing a kind of "foam" that had interesting properties, I mean a foam akin to foam rubber.  We could adjust the properties almost without limit in terms of energy absorption (as a function of temperature).

Part of my work was to consider what other uses said foam might have, and I looked into impact absorption as one option (also heat insulation, that was a long story).  The problem is one of space.  The impact is a deceleration, and you flat out need more distance to decelerate to "cushion" any impact.  This is a Newton thing.  We could change the properties such that the response was nonlinear, but that didn't really help.  You needed a large helmet with more space for deceleration.