SECCG

[Nashville4UGA]

Fellas, it seems like just last week the season started and here we are getting ready to watch UGA and Auburn in a rematch. I saw several topics on other threads preseason saying that UGA would see Auburn twice this year, so those guys wherever they may be deserve some kudos. 

The feeling among many UGA fans is that we didn't show up in the first game and while somewhat true I'm not sure anyone was beating Auburn on 11/14 at Pat Dye field at Jordan-Hare Stadium.  Auburn has a lot of talent on both lines of scrimmage and that in conjunction with some uncharacteristic mistakes, a rowdy home crowd, etc, made for a long day for UGA and things just kinda got out of hand. 

But here we are a few weeks later and we have ourselves a rematch. While I am optimistic that UGA can hang with Auburn with a few tweaks to the game plan and the elimination of some costly penalties and what not in this upcoming game, i'm just not sure that our lines of scrimmage are good enough. It's going to take UGA's A+ game Saturday even with a banged up Kerryon Johnson to win. 

I think our offense is going to have to spread the ball out with swing passes to the backs much like Alabama did in their game this past weekend, but also, throw more on early downs to keep the defense honest, take some deep shots on early downs to loosen up the defense, Mecole Hardeman needs more touches on jet sweeps. We have to be able to get that DLine gassed up front. 

The Oline was tweaked a bit after the last meeting. New starter at RG, Ben Cleveland and the rest of the Oline will need to play at a much higher level than last time and our defense needs to tackle better and limit 3rd down conversions.  

It's hard to beat a team twice in a season and I expect a much more even game this go around. 

Thoughts? 

[MikeDeTiger]

Cincydawg and ftbobs did some research years ago and found that being hard to beat a team twice in the same season is an old saying without any statistical support.  I believe they found in rematches the team that won the first meeting won over 60% of the time.  

Haven't seen ftbobs in I don't know how long, and haven't seen CD since the first UGA/AU weekend, maybe they could verify......but I believe that's what they reported.  

[OrangeAfroMan]

If AU can shut down UGA's running game again, then they might as well be handed the crystal ball trophy.  

[eltigrerex]

I think Mike is correct in recalling the statistical basis for the @60%.

For this game, I think UGA will have to pass the ball to free up the run. If they do, it's on and could go either way.

On the flip side, if KJ is healthy and plays the whole game, it'll be tough to beat the Tigers no matter what the Dawgs do. No certainty either way on KJ yet... But I bet he plays with a low-carry limit. 

The wild card in this game to me is the return game of Hardman. If he has a great game, it might trump everything else.

I'll take Auburn 30 - 20 but I don't feel especially confident about it. 

[rolltidefan]

i think mdt is correct with ~60%.

for the sec in particular, i think in repeat matches it 5-1 in favor of repeat winners in seccg. 5-2 if you count bama/lsu bcs title. and it's usually a lopsided game. ave score is 35-17, even accounting for the loss. just the wins it's 38-14.

so i'll take uga. 

[Drew4UTk]

i'm still working with bobs trying to get things straightened out with his site on my server...

you can get to what you want, here: http://www.cfb-trivia.com/cfbt_menu.php/

it'll be ready at some point for public digestion...

at any rate-

UGA simply didn't play that game as UGA has been playing all year.  I don't know what was up with that.  I mean, yeah, Auburn disrupted them and they played lights out, but.... that just wasn't the UGA team i've been watching.

Coupled with the fact Auburn has key elements banged up.............

I like Georgia in the rematch by a hair and only a hair- skin on teeth separation....

the monkey wrench this will present is complex to the point of hilarity-

"Bama knocked out by Auburn who knocked down UGA who knocked Auburn down"- and Okey, Wiscy couldn't likely beat any of those (healthy) three.  Bama IN because, one loss... Auburn OUT, because- one loss late to lessor... UGA OUT- two losses same team(auburn-maybe)?

meanwhile, Clemson loss to frickin' 'cuse...
Okey lost to frickin' Iowa State...
Wiscy is the only one (right now) who deserves opportunity in the 'ring of three'.

[MikeDeTiger]

Alabama does not deserve a spot in the playoffs, and that is not just my general despising of that state.  They don't have the resume and they don't pass any definitive eyeball tests.  

[rolltidefan]

alabama doesn't deserve it over the seccg winner. or acccg or wisk or ou.

there's an argument to be made if one of wisk/ou lose. if they both lose, bama is likely in, regardless of deserve or not.

[MikeDeTiger]

Probably.  It's not like there's no precedent for Alabama getting in with a decent loss to a good team as their only resume point.  

Or the committee might get gunshy about putting a non-conference-winner after Ohio State last year and look around the PAC.  Though I'm hard pressed to argue that any of the PAC teams are better than Alabama.  

I'd still much rather see it.  Win your conference or GTFO.  If those conference titles really aren't going to matter then we need to just disband the conferences and form the 16-32 team superleague across the country with 4 team pods and complete the NFL-ization of this sport.  Winning your division still gives non-NC winners a nice goal and "consolation prize" for a good year, much the same way conference titles do now.  

[eltigrerex]

Win your conference or GTFO.  If those conference titles really aren't going to matter then we need to just disband the conferences and form the 16-32 team superleague across the country with 4 team pods and complete the NFL-ization of this sport.  Winning your division still gives non-NC winners a nice goal and "consolation prize" for a good year, much the same way conference titles do now.  

Quote of the year. 
So much yes. 

[OrangeAfroMan]

Why should one late November loss be more damning than 2 losses earlier in the year?

[rolltidefan]

Probably.  It's not like there's no precedent for Alabama getting in with a decent loss to a good team as their only resume point.  

Or the committee might get gunshy about putting a non-conference-winner after Ohio State last year and look around the PAC.  Though I'm hard pressed to argue that any of the PAC teams are better than Alabama.  

I'd still much rather see it.  Win your conference or GTFO.  If those conference titles really aren't going to matter then we need to just disband the conferences and form the 16-32 team superleague across the country with 4 team pods and complete the NFL-ization of this sport.  Winning your division still gives non-NC winners a nice goal and "consolation prize" for a good year, much the same way conference titles do now.  

first, why does everyone keep using "pods" when we have a perfectly good word for that split already. you even used it later. divisions. if they go to this and call it pods, i'm putting out a hit on someone updyke style.
second, bama would still be in really good shape. you think they won't have wildcards under an nfl lite style setup? hell, depending on how they count the games, bama might be in over au for the div champ. unless i'm mistaken, all games count in nfl, not just div or conf.
having said that, i'd be fine with that. i argued last year for psu over osu mainly for that reason. however, there's 2 things different this year i'd like to point out. 1 - i am an unabashed homer and roll tide, suck it tigers (both of you). 2 - bama won't be getting in over the sec champ, just along with them. it's far less egregious if a second non-champ team from a conf gets in with the champ than over them. there can certainly be 2 teams from same conf in the best 4 teams in nation.

[MikeDeTiger]

first, why does everyone keep using "pods" when we have a perfectly good word for that split already. you even used it later. divisions. if they go to this and call it pods, i'm putting out a hit on someone updyke style.
second, bama would still be in really good shape. you think they won't have wildcards under an nfl lite style setup? hell, depending on how they count the games, bama might be in over au for the div champ. unless i'm mistaken, all games count in nfl, not just div or conf.
having said that, i'd be fine with that. i argued last year for psu over osu mainly for that reason. however, there's 2 things different this year i'd like to point out. 1 - i am an unabashed homer and roll tide, suck it tigers (both of you). 2 - bama won't be getting in over the sec champ, just along with them. it's far less egregious if a second non-champ team from a conf gets in with the champ than over them. there can certainly be 2 teams from same conf in the best 4 teams in nation.

Call it whatever you want.  I used "pods" because I've seen it elsewhere.  
There might be wildcards, but I wouldn't advocate for it, and I'd reserve my right to complain about it.  
As long as the rules for winning the division are agreed upon beforehand, and can't be changed to accommodate whatever helmet team we "think" is good, I'm all for it.  If we had such a system and total games counted and Alabama won the division, fair enough.  
There can definitely be two of the best 4 teams from the same conference, but they need to back it up with resume.  By the end of the year, I no longer want anyone trying to care what they "think" about a team's quality, or eyeball tests.  If people knew who the best teams were, they'd make their living betting and we wouldn't have to play the games.  But we do play them, quite often with unexpected results because one or both teams aren't what we thought, and nobody I know makes their bones living a life of luxury because they can just gamble on games....for good reason.  I'm happy to argue about resumes, but we've got to get rid of this "Well you can watch them and see they're one of the best teams in the country" crap.  

[Cincydawg]

If UGA can avoid stupidity and learn to pass on first down, they can win this thing.  They hung in pretty well for a while in the last game and then the defense wore down because the offense was not controlling the clock at all.

They are going to have to ride Fromm to win it.