Peach Bowl: #10 Florida 41, #7 Michigan 15

[ELA]

Because nobody has UM-UF fatigue.

[Anonymous Coward]

Ick. Though maybe (maaaaaybe) LSU got it worse. I wanted to play UCF even less. Too bad that LSU-Michigan was impossible. Also too bad that we can't put all non-playoff NY6 games on NYD (and remove all non-NYG games from NYD).
That day doesn't have prestige anymore, but it was nice when it did and feels so easy to return it.

[MarqHusker]

Disgraceful that college football has ceded NYD to the NHL and other events.   This is an area where having a commissioner would be useful.   

[ELA]

Ick. Though maybe (maaaaaybe) LSU got it worse. I wanted to play UCF even less. Too bad that LSU-Michigan was impossible. Also too bad that we can't put all non-playoff NY6 games on NYD (and remove all non-NYG games from NYD).
That day doesn't have prestige anymore, but it was nice when it did and feels so easy to return it.

Citrus and Outback have been there forever, so that's fine.  I agree that in years the CFP is off NYD, all four other NY6 games should be on there.  It's close this year, just move the Peach and we are done.

[Brutus Buckeye]

Can Florida avenge last year's loss to the Maize and Blue? 

[ELA]

Can Florida avenge last year's loss to the Maize and Blue?

They have four consecutive losses to avenge.  An Outback Bowl ('03), two Citrus Bowls ('08 and '16), plus last year.  Hence the matchup fatigue.

[Anonymous Coward]

Can Florida avenge last year's loss to the Maize and Blue?

You mean avenge the all-time series? 2003 (Zook), 2008 (Meyer), 2016 (McE), 2017 (McE). We've seen this one a lot. Michigan's 4-0. Neither side wants to play again before 2030.

[Anonymous Coward]

They have four consecutive losses to avenge.  An Outback Bowl ('03), two Citrus Bowls ('08 and '16), plus last year.  Hence the matchup fatigue.

Yeah. It's almost to the point that I'd have preferred UCF. Instead, we get the third of these in four years.

[Temp430]

Yuck. I think Michigan has played Florida in recent years more often than some Big Tem teams.

[Anonymous Coward]

Yuck. I think Michigan has played Florida in recent years more often than some Big Tem teams.

More than Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin? Yeah, maybe. 

[MichiFan87]

Once it was clear that the Rose Bowl wasn't going to happen, I was really hoping for LSU, since them and Clemson are the last top programs Michigan has never faced. Michigan has obviously played and beaten Florida more than any other major program outside the BigTen and Notre Dame over the past 15-20 years.

As for the matchup itself, I like Michigan's chances if they're motivated. Franks didn't do well against Michigan's defense a year ago, and while he's improved since then, he hasn't had good games against any good defenses. Similarly, it looks like their RBs are decent but not great.

Similar to Michigan's defense, their own defense hasn't faced many good offenses this year, and they struggled against the best ones (Missouri, Georgia.... even Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina). Hopefully, Michigan will finally open up the offense in this game like they did 3 years ago in a blowout win.

I can see this being a blowout win or a close loss, but based on what I know I think something like a 33-23 win is a reasonable prediction.

[Anonymous Coward]

I think Michigan will be ready on both sides, and definitely on defense.

People are suddenly starting to doubt Don Brown. And I think that's the wrong response to last week's beat down. He's still finishing with three Top 5 overall defenses in three years, after all.

My explanation for last week?

He's historically a great in-game adapter. Very consistently gifted at that. What 2017 PSU and 2018 OSU taught us though is that he's human and his knack for these adaptations have limits. (And in one sense, I think these limitations in those two games might come down to pride or overconfidence.) That when his base defense needs nuanced tweaks to squash an opponent, he's as good as any DC in the country at finding/timing those in real-time. BUT if he enters a game faaaaaaar miscalculating the weaknesses of his defense and needs to entirely revamp his front or coverage (switching from all-man to all-zone is particularly extreme case for Don) to win, he's too overcome with shock to make those changes in time.

I guess that makes him the ideal DC to have in the offseason and still perhaps the nation's best in *allllmost* every game, but in 0-1 games per year, that ego gets to him.
Well at least I'm calling it ego. And happy to forgive him for that if I'm right. I could be wrong. It could just be boilerplate shock. And I'll forgive him for that too. If you've proven you're the nation's runaway #1 defense through 11 games, it's reasonable to expect you can run your business without revamping who you are before the next game.

Having said that, Rutgers in Game 10 was the first offense to sort of consistently test this defense. They did it with crossing routes. Mixed with Michigan not getting a sack. IU in Game 11 took it slightly further with the same poor pressure from M. But neither were objectively bad games on D for Michigan. They just weren't the sub-200-total-yard smashings we'd been treated to prior. Fans explained it away citing injuries and looking ahead to OSU. We even mentioned that we'd played some QBs on off days and should maybe dial back expectations by 20% anyway. That was all reasonable but only educated guesses. And it seems Don Brown treated them with the same probability as fans.

And in the OSU game when the DL couldn't get pressure (even when they NEEDED to) and Michigan's man coverage proved Watson's great season was built on smarts not speed, Don got caught flat-footed. But whereas fans could afford the shock, he couldn't. Should have changed the front into something blitz heavy early. Should have switched to zone by drive #2 or 3.

But again, those are seismic changes for the runaway #1 national defense through 11 games. I'll forgive him for messing it up. But he did. And that's his limitation. He can build a great defense and tweak it masterfully in-game. But when asked to break it all down and start over to stop the bleeding, he can't try.

It's not the worst weakness in the world. And his strengths helped him masterfully outscheme OSU in 2016 and (maybe) win a closer chess match in 2017. But 2017 PSU and 2018 OSU are the real painful consequences when that one weakness comes out.

As for UF:

If I'm right, then they're double-doomed. For one, now Don Brown knows this weakness way in advance. For two, their offense is nothing like 2017 PSU or 2018 OSU.

[FearlessF]

so, the gators are Michigan's bitch!

[FearlessF]

Disgraceful that college football has ceded NYD to the NHL and other events.   This is an area where having a commissioner would be useful.