Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend

[medinabuckeye1]

It seems like a weird season.  The top-3 haven't changed much all year and if they keep winning the only possible debate will be for the #4 spot.  

In theory we could have Bama, Clemson, and Notre Dame all undefeated and obviously in with three 1-loss P5 Champs (tOSU/M, OU, WSU) in contention for the fourth spot.  

Of course we could also see everything turn upside down over the next two weeks and end up with a real mess.  

• 11-0 Bama, vsAuburn, vs#5 UGA-SECCG:  The Auburn game only matters if Bama loses to UGA and even then it might not.  If Bama wins the SECCG, they are in.  If they lose it they have a chance with a win over Auburn.  If they lose both, they are out.  
• 11-0 Clemson, vsUSCe, vs#24 Pitt-ACCCG:  Basically the same as Bama only with a smaller chance as a one-loss non-Champion.  As long as they beat Pitt, they are in.  The USCe game probably doesn't matter.  
• 11-0 Notre Dame, @USC:  This one is simple.  Win in SoCal this weekend and they are in.  Lose and they need LOTS of help.  
• 10-1 Michigan, @#10 tOSU, vs#20 NU-B1GCG (assuming they beat tOSU):  They need to win both and if they do they are about a 95% chance to make the CFP.  Lose either one and they are out.  
• 10-1 Georgia, vsGaTech, vs#1 Bama-SECCG:  The GaTech might not matter.  They need to win both to feel safe but losing to GaTech then beating Bama would be better than the reverse.  
• 10-1 Oklahoma, @#12 WVU, vs #11 TX or #12 WVU - B12CG:  They need to win both to have a real shot.  
• 10-1 Washington State, vs#16 UW, vs #18 Utah-P12CG (assuming they beat UW):  They need to win both to have a real shot.  
• 10-0 UCF:  No serious shot.  
• 9-2 LSU:  No serious shot.  
• 10-1 Ohio State, vs #4 Michigan, vs #20 NU-B1GCG (assuming they beat M):  They need to win both and if they do they have a shot at the CFP but it would depend on how the B12 and P12 races finish among other things.  

IMHO, that is it.  Eight teams are still in contention.  

All five P5 leagues are still capable of producing an undefeated or one-loss Champion and if Notre Dame wins Saturday night then two of them will be left out.  

A USC win this weekend (Saturday, 8pm on ABC) would be a HUGE help for OU (if they beat WVU Friday night), WSU (if they beat UW Friday night), and the tOSU/M winner.  IMHO an 11-1 Notre Dame would finish behind all undefeated and 1-loss P5 Champions.  However, a 1-loss Notre Dame could still sneak into the playoff if the B12, B1G, and P12 all fail to produce a Champion with less than two losses (unlikely but not completely implausible).  

[Cincydawg]

I think UGA has to beat Tech to have any shot realistically (and Bama as well).

We could end up with OU, UM/OSU, and Wazzu at 12-1, and possibly UGA as well.  UGA would probably just replace Alabama, so that outcome does not impact the other three.

Toughest scenario is OSU wins two close games, OU wins two close games, and Wazzu wins fairly convincingly.  There is no obvious choice, though I'd like to see OU matched up with Bama.

[Kris60]

I haven’t given up hope.  If WVU wins out I’m hoping for:

GT to beat UGA
TAMU to beat LSU
UCF to lose one of its next two
Wazzu to lose one of its next two
Northwestern to win the Big Ten

Chances of all that happening?  Minuscule.  But it’s fun to dream.

[medinabuckeye1]

I think UGA has to beat Tech to have any shot realistically (and Bama as well).

I'm not so sure.  If we assume that UGA loses to GaTech then beats Bama they would finish 11-2 and SEC Champions.  I have no idea how the committee value that.  In their favor they would have a HUMONGOUS win over Bama in the SECCG but to their detriment they would be a 2-loss P5 Champion.  I think it is a VERY safe assumption that an 11-2 SEC Champion that just beat Bama would get in ahead of any other 2-loss teams.  Assuming ND and Clemson win out, they would obviously be in.  The third and fourth spots would be between UGA, 12-1 Bama (assuming they beat Auburn) and any 1-loss teams from the group of tOSU/M/OU/WSU.  
I can't imagine the committee putting in Bama over UGA in the situation.  As bad a GaTech is, they would be better than any of Bama's OOC opponents and UGA would obviously own the H2H and SEC-Championship "tiebreakers".  
Georgia would obviously get in if Northwestern wins the B1G while OU and WSU do not win their leagues.  

[Kris60]

I'm not so sure.  If we assume that UGA loses to GaTech then beats Bama they would finish 11-2 and SEC Champions.  I have no idea how the committee value that.  In their favor they would have a HUMONGOUS win over Bama in the SECCG but to their detriment they would be a 2-loss P5 Champion.  I think it is a VERY safe assumption that an 11-2 SEC Champion that just beat Bama would get in ahead of any other 2-loss teams.  Assuming ND and Clemson win out, they would obviously be in.  The third and fourth spots would be between UGA, 12-1 Bama (assuming they beat Auburn) and any 1-loss teams from the group of tOSU/M/OU/WSU.  
I can't imagine the committee putting in Bama over UGA in the situation.  As bad a GaTech is, they would be better than any of Bama's OOC opponents and UGA would obviously own the H2H and SEC-Championship "tiebreakers".  
Georgia would obviously get in if Northwestern wins the B1G while OU and WSU do not win their leagues.  

Would a 10-2 UGA get in over a 10-2 WVU that has a conference title?

[Cincydawg]

Tech is 7-4, after a 1-3 start, they aren't that bad really.  But UGA's OOC slate this year is bad, they don't get a boost from beating a Notre Dame, or even another P5 team.

I wouldn't include them if a 12-1 conference champ was available.

[Brutus Buckeye]

There was some talking head insisting that if both OSU and Wazzou win out, then Wazzoo is the obvious choice. 

"What was his reasoning?" you ask. 

Well it is actually quite simple. 

"You can't leave a one-loss Pac 12 Champion outta the Playoffs!"

[medinabuckeye1]

Would a 10-2 UGA get in over a 10-2 WVU that has a conference title?

Georgia would be 11-2.  WVU would be 10-2 because of the cancelled NCST game.  I think the Conference Championship would prevail here but it would be a close call.  

[medinabuckeye1]

There was some talking head insisting that if both OSU and Wazzou win out, then Wazzoo is the obvious choice.

"What was his reasoning?" you ask.

Well it is actually quite simple.

"You can't leave a one-loss Pac 12 Champion outta the Playoffs!"

I have no problem with Ohio State being behind WSU right now and I think this is all irrelevant because I really don't think we are going to beat *ichigan on Saturday but I am confident that if the Buckeyes finish 12-1 they will be ranked ahead of WSU.  WSU's schedule is REALLY weak.  The Buckeyes are a VERY shaky looking 10-1 but if they finish up with wins over #4 Michigan and #20 Northwestern there really wouldn't be a logical argument in favor of WSU other than that tOSU's loss was worse and the committee has consistently ignored that factor.  Ohio State would have much better wins and it wouldn't be close.  

[Cincydawg]

The apparent weakness of the Pac this year would hurt Wazzu.  The B1G is probably not as strong as expected, but still better than P12.

[Kris60]

I think Wazzu is passing the “eye test” now more than Ohio St or Oklahoma.  They are the most complete team anyway. They can score and play defense.

[medinabuckeye1]

I think Wazzu is passing the “eye test” now more than Ohio St or Oklahoma.  They are the most complete team anyway. They can score and play defense.

I don't disagree . . . now.  I'll also add that this is extremely unlikely to be relevant to Ohio State.  That said, IF Ohio State somehow manages to win back-to-back games against Michigan and Northwestern it is certain that, at that point, Ohio State will look better than Washington State.  
I'll add the same thing wrt Oklahoma.  IF they manage to beat WVU and (probably Texas but possible WVU again) in back-to-back games they will, at that point, look better than WSU.  
IMHO, among the potential 1-loss P5 Champions (excluding Bama and Clemson on the assumption that they will be undefeated and Georgia on the assumption that Bama will beat them) the order is:

• Michigan
• Oklahoma (but possibly Ohio State if the Buckeyes won big while OU was winning ugly)
• Ohio State
• Washington State

[Cincydawg]

I guess UGA at 12-1 would be a lock to make a 3 seed, or so.  I don't expect that, but miracles happen.

[medinabuckeye1]

I guess UGA at 12-1 would be a lock to make a 3 seed, or so.  I don't expect that, but miracles happen.

That would be an absolute minimum  The only possible teams to be seeded ahead of 12-1 Georgia would be:

• 13-0 Clemson
• 12-0 Notre Dame

I wouldn't even be sure of those.  Remember that back in 2014 the committee seeded undefeated Florida State behind both 1-loss Alabama and 1-loss Oregon.  A 12-1 SEC Champion Georgia coming off of a win over #1 Alabama might move up to #1.