ELA September 22 Breakdown

[ELA]

#10 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0) at Illinois Fighting Illini (2-1)

9:00 (Fri) - Champaign, IL - FS1

Is Illinois maybe turning a bit of a corner to respectability?  They had the South Florida game won before blowing it in the fourth quarter.  A win there, and the energy inside Memorial Stadium for a Friday night game could have been really good.  It may yet.  Penn State fans know all about the dangers of a national title contender going into Urbana-Champaign.  In 2007, a Penn State team that had been ranked in the top 10 the week before lost to an unranked Illini team, but obviously the famous one is the near miss that would have derailed Penn State's 1994 National Title hopes. The Illini charged out of the gates with three quick scores, and led 21-0 less than five minutes into the game, which was still a two score lead in the second half before Penn State pulled out a 35-31 win to save their undefeated season.  While that would have been a massive upset, that was still a ranked Illinois team, featuring the best linebacking group in Big Ten history in my opinion.  This Illinois team ain't that.  Illinois football program is now at a point where close losses to solid Group of 5 teams is seen as a positive.  Penn State had their own issues early in the year, escaping what should have been a home loss to Appalachian State, followed by a slow start against Pitt, where they wwere saved by the Panthers kicking woes.  Since getting it going just before halftime in Pittsburgh though, the machine has been rolling, and the Nittany Lions look to be in midseason form.  The only gripe is that they are getting far less than expected from their experienced receivers, but that's been compensated for by some of the younger kids being ahead of schedule.  DeAndre Thompson may have shaken his funk last weekend, but Juwan Johnson is still MIA.  If he's going to get on track, this is a group to do it against, giving up 7.9 ypa through the air, second worst in the conference, along with a league high 6 passing touchdowns.  Offensively for the Illini, it remains uncertain who starts at quarterback.  A.J. Bush is still nursing a hamstring injury which held him out of the South Florida game.  Freshman M.J. Rivers is operating the offense with a low level of trust, using a lot of underneath routes and check downs.  He did what was asked of him, completed a solid number, no interceptions, but for little yardage and no scores either.  Given the state of their offensive line though, the quick routes may have to continue no matter who is under center.  The Illini are giving up 3.0 sacks per game, most in the Big Ten.  And that's against Kent State, Western Illinois and South Florida.  This is Penn State's defense, who has generated 13 sacks, most in the conference.  When filling out the Stupid Upset Picks, I love to look for off-Saturday home dogs.  Feels like a disproportionate number of upsets happen there.  Good crowd atmosphere, an opponent travelling in on an altered schedule.  Makes sense.  So if Illinois keeps this uncomfortably close for a half, maybe even three quarters, it wouldn't shock me.  But with Penn State's defense living in the backfield all day, Illinois is going to be too dependent on big plays to pull off the upset.

PENN STATE 41, ILLINOIS 21

#23 Boston College Eagles (3-0) at Purdue Boilermakers (0-1, 0-3)

NOON - West Lafayette, IN - espn2

If Missouri was Purdue's jihad game last week, what do they have left in the tank for this week after yet another heartbreaking loss?  Missouri is solid, no shame in a loss there, even at home, but Boston College is better.  The job that Steve Addazio's staff has done in flipping the offense in just a couple of years is nothing short of remarkable.  Remember Don Brown got the Michigan Defensive Coordinator job after somehow having the #1 defense in the nation, while having an offense that couldn't muster a single ACC win, just three years ago.  They lost six games where they held their opponents to 20 points or less.  Three years later, and the Boston College offense is a machine, leading the ACC in scoring (52.7 ppg) and total offense (577.3 ypg).  They are doing it with balance too, ranking second in the conference in both rushing offense and passing offense.  A.J. Dillon announced his presense last year, he was a known commodity, who is not disappointing in his follow up, 5th in the nation with 432 yards rushing, while upping his ypc by 2 full yards over his freshman season.  He's getting a lot more help from the quarterback position from Anthony Brown.  Brown was unsteady through most of last season, completing 51% of his passes, with a paltry 5.3 ypa, an 11-9 TD-INT ratio, and a pedestrian 55.6 QBR.  So far in 2018?  He's completing 69% of his attempts, more than doubled his ypa to 13.0, has 9 touchdowns to go with no interceptions, and his QBR is up to 90.9.  That would be good for 5th best in the nation, but he only threw 2 passes in their blowout win over Holy Cross, so he doesn't have enough attempts to be eligible.  He would slide right between Dwayne Haskins and Will Grier if he did.  Not too shabby.  Yet another tall task for a struggling Purdue pass defense, which is giving up 319 ypg on a Big Ten worst 8.4 ypa, and is only creating interceptions at a rate of 1 per 57 attempts.  Missouri put up over 600 yards of offense on Purdue last week, and Boston College's offense is probably better.  It's not as though Boston College is lighting the world on fire defensively either though.  They allowed over 500 yards and 27 first downs in their win over Wake Forest, including two different backs going over 100 yards on the ground.  While Purdue might try to pick up the pace, I highly doubt they'll even come close to approaching the 112 snaps Wake Forest took last week.  And while the Demon Deacons threw for 214 yards, it took them 45 attempts (4.8 ypa) to do so, only completing 44% of their passes.  David Blough nearly single-handidly kept Purdue in the game last week, accounting for 590 yards.  61 of Purdue's 71 offensive plays were either Blough passes or runs.  The other 10 plays were 10 rushes for a combined 24 yards.  Purdue needs a lot more from their backs, because Boston College should continue to deliver the beatings to the Purdue defense.

BOSTON COLLEGE 41, PURDUE 27

Nebraska Cornhuskers (0-2) at #19 Michigan Wolverines (2-1)

NOON - Ann Arbor, MI - FS1

How many years does Nebraska have to be in the conference before we stop hearing the 1997 what ifs every time they play Michigan?  With Frost coaching his first game in the series, there was going to be a natural uptick this year.  Hopefully absent Brian Griese taking the Michigan job at some point in the future this will be peak for that.  Neither team is where they were in 1997, but obviously Michigan is much closer.  They are in Year 4 of their coaching regime, so their "rebuild" whatever it was, is over.  Nebraska's is just beginning, and is including a massive overhaul of offensive systems.  I picked Troy to upset them last week without Martinez, and that panned out.  Sounds almost certain Martinez will play this week, which as a neutral fan is a good thing.  He's fun to watch, and it's clear that Frost's offense is fully dependent on having a quarterback with his skill set in there.  They've faced a mediocre defense in Colorado (#50 in S&P+ defense) and a bad one in Troy (#96).  Michigan's is #7, and probably after the first drive of the season, is much higher.  The "weak spot" if there is one, is at linebacker, now particularly with Hudson suspended for the first half due to a targeting ejection in the second half against SMU.  You still have a Butkus Award candidate there in Devin Bush Jr., so as I said, relatively.  So while the Huskers don't have the personnel yet, this is the type of attack that could help negate Michigan's strengths at cornerback and pass rush, because their run defense has been merely fine.  Not that anyone is trying to hand out Blackshirts to the group, but the Nebraska defense has been better than the blame they've taken.  The turnover differential isn't helping, averaging 3 turnovers, and -2 per game, both 2nd worst in the Big Ten.  The overall scoring and total defense numbers don't look great, but on a per play basis, they are only allowing 2.7 yards per carry, 3rd best in the Big Ten, and 6.5 yards per pass attempt, squarely in the middle.  To help this offense in transition though they have to create more turnovers, particularly this week.  For Michigan's offense, this is a good litmus test.  They looked bad against Notre Dame.  While the Wimbush we saw that night was probably not the real Wimbush, the Irish defense appears to be every bit of what we saw, still a top 5 unit nationally.  After that they played a pair of defenses ranked outside the top 100.  So judging anything, positive or negative, from those three games seems unfair.  Nebraska's defense is more indicative of the type of defense Michigan is likely to play week in and week out.  Karan Higdon is expected to play Saturday, and that is huge.  The run game struggled without him against SMU.  While Chris Evans is a home run threat, he's clearly not an every down back.  Instead the offense leaned heavily on the passing game, and Donovan Peoples-Jones had his coming out party, with 3 touchdowns.  Banking on 13.2 yards per attempt is generally not a good strategy.  Win or lose, coming out of this game I think we can finally draw some conclusions about this offense.

MICHIGAN 37, NEBRASKA 14

Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-0) at Maryland Terrapins (2-1)

NOON - College Park, MD - BTN

Time to see just how fragile this Maryland team is?  Coming off a blowout home loss to Temple, the thoughts of "2017 all over again" are too easy not to avoid.  The difference is, they still have their top two quarterbacks.  Right now though, the offensive line is in disarray between injuries and underperformance.  That wasn't Matt Rhule peak-Temple they just lost to, got trounced by, that was 0-2 with losses to a MAC school and an FCS school Temple, and they completely shut down the Maryland offense.  Where was the attack we saw against Texas, and in the second half against Bowling Green?  That wasn't just a 38-14 loss, the defense actually made it look at least a little closer.  Neither Maryland score came from the offense, it was a pick six and a blocked punt, but Maryland's offense did hand Temple a score via pick six.  So the game was actually 7-0 Temple, even just including Maryland possessions.  They were outgained 429-195.  Kasim Hill had the worst single game of any quarterback in the nation this season, with a QBR of 0.8, going 7-17 for 56 yards and a pick.  Fortunately, this wasn't the opener.  We know this isn't Maryland.  That was simply a "burn the tape" game and move on.  It does raise the question though of whether promoting Matt Canada to interim head coach is sinking this offense, the farther we get away from him serving solely as offensive coordinator.  Now they have to figure it out against a Minnesota defense that has been playing lights out.  They are first in passing defense per play, second to Iowa in scoring defense and total defense, third behind Iowa and Michigan State in rushing defense.  They are #11 nationally in S&P+ defense.  The issues are (1) they are #106 in offense and (2) this is where they sat last year.  They were 3-0 to start the P.J. Fleck era, outscoring theor opponents 99-24 (33.0-8.0).  Then they faced Maryland at home, lost by 7, and the wheels fell off.  They gave up over 30 in three consecutive games, and missed a bowl.  Eerie how close these teams sit to exactly where they were going into their Week 4 meeting in Minneapolis last year.  Maryland has thus far actually been very good against the run, allowing only 2.8 ypc, better than the Gophers on a per play basis.  That's the key to totally shutting down a Minnesota attack that needs the play action.  Even that remains slightly in doubt depending on the health of Zack Annexstad.  It seems like he will play, and this prediction is based on the assumption he will, but he certainly won't be 100%, and for a Gopher offense with little margin for error after losing their top two backs to injury, how close to 100% he is makes a ton of difference.  If he can't go it seems like converted QB Seth Green may slide back over?  For Maryland to win they need a lot more from Kasim Hill.  His injury last year was written as a major reason for the Terps' struggles.  But his performance thus far in 2018 sure makes it seem like he wasn't overly missed.  His Total QBR for the season is 34.8, #109 out of 130 qualified FBS quarterbacks.  Even within the Big Ten, the only planned starter behind him is Art Sitkowski at Rutgers.  Give or take a walk on at Nebraska and a freshman 3rd stringer forced into the starting job at Illinois.  The Terps were able to let him play within himself in the first two games, where he still only completed 58% and 50% of his passes, but with no picks, and allowed his weapons to make plays.  Against Temple, Maryland fell behind early, and he was forced to be more aggressive, showing glaring accuracy weaknesses that were supposed to be his strength.  That was supposedly the knock on Pigromes, who at least brings a running dynamic.  If this continues early this week, there's no reason not to go to Pigromes.

MINNESOTA 28, MARYLAND 21

Buffalo Bulls (3-0) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-1, 1-2)

NOON - Piscataway, NJ - BTN

After Week 1, while Rutgers looked far from being a bowl team, it seemed like maybe the team was ready to take another half step in that direction.  Remember, while 2016 was a disaster, 2017 showed some promise.  The Scarlet Knights won 3 of 4 in October and November, and their only losses after September 23 came to the four East Division powers and a road game at Indiana.  But after last week it's clear this is still a program in disarray.  Kansas may end up being decent, such that a road loss for another Power 5 bottom feeder is at least understandable, but for the Big Ten's bottom feeder to play the Big XII's bottom feeder and get run off the field is not.  You would think jumping from from Power Five team to MAC opponent might give them a good chance for a second win, not so much.  Buffalo already has two Big Ten wins by proxy, now they look to pick up one for real.  That Temple team that blasted Maryland in College Park?  Buffalo already beat them in Philly.  Eastern Michigan, who rolled into West Lafayette and beat Purdue?  Buffalo beat them last week.  They have a talented and experienced passing game that could give any team fits.  Tyree Jackson has gone from a major liability as a sophomore, to a solid junior, to a weapon in his own right as a senior.  He has seen his completion percentage rise 12%.  He needed 311 attempts to throw 9 touchdown passes in 2016, 237 to throw for 12 last year, and already has 12 touchdown passes in only 98 attempts this season.  Anthony Johnson was the most prolific returning wide reciever in the nation this year, after posting 1,356 yards (good for #6 nationally) and 14 touchdowns a year ago.  Now he's got help though, it was K.J. Osborn reeling in 7 catches for 188 yards and 3 touchdowns last week, including the game winner, against Eastern Michigan.  A little extra sting there in that Osborn played high school ball in Ypsilanti, Michigan.  Not exactly a football hotbed, so when you are a struggling program like Eastern Michigan, you might want to land the studs that actually play in the city where your campus is located.  Rutgers' pass defense may actually be worse than what Buffalo faced in Temple and Eastern Michigan.  The Scarlet Knights are last in the Big Ten in pass defense efficiency, allowing a 66% completion rate to go with a conference high 6 passing touchdowns allowed and a conference low 1 interception forced.  As bad as their pass defense is, their passing offense is worse, and has been an ongoing problem for years.  They aren't completing 50% of their passes, 4.3 ypa is third worst nationally, and I think one of us could go out there and do better than their 1-9 TD-INT ratio.  Throwing multiple pick sixes last week certainly didn't help things.   Being -6 in turnovers turned things from bad to ugly, but even without those, Rutgers looks far away from competing with even decent teams right now.  Buffalo looks right now like the best team in the MAC, and that seems well outside Rutgers' capabilities.

BUFFALO 35, RUTGERS 23

Tulane Green Wave (1-2) at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0, 3-0)

3:30 - Columbus, OH - BTN

Getting punched in the mouth was exactly what this Ohio State team needed.  They are frighteningly athletic, but rolling into that game against Penn State wasn't going to be good for them.  They got tested, and survived.  That momentum tsunami they threw at TCU in the 3rd quarter, right when the Horned Frogs seemed to be gaining control, was something to behold.  It also answered any lingering doubts about whether Haskins was what he appeared to be, or just an athletic freak who could post gaudy numbers against overmatched opponents.  Completing 73% of his passes, for 344 yards against a Gary Patterson defense should put those doubts to rest.  The Frogs sold out to stop the run, and wanted to see what Haskins could do, and he responded.  The flip side is that while it's not as though the Buckeyes were shut down on the ground, TCU's attack did do a pretty good job holding the running game, particularly Mike Weber, in check.  The line needs to do better against a team like Michigan, more equipped to play that same style, with far better players in the secondary in one on one coverage.  But this isn't Michigan week.  It's Tulane week.  The Green Wave were a team I picked in the preseason to take a huge step forward.  I had them reaching the AAC Conference Championship Game.  While obviously that's still on the table, there are some issues.  An overtime loss Wake Forest, after how we saw the Deacons play Boston College last week, is nothing to be ashamed of, losing at UAB last weekend dinged them.  The hope was that Jonathan Banks was getting things ironed out at the end of 2017, with his two highest passing totals of the season coming in the final two weeks.  But thus far in 2018, he looks like the inconstant passer we saw for much of 2017.  Take away the FCS game, and against Wake Forest and UAB, he's completing only 40% of his passes.  He was 7-24 in the UAB loss.  He somehow still threw for 180 yards on a crazy 25.7 ypc rate.  His 7 completions were for 44, 21, 44, 24, 6, 11, 30.  But in addition to his interception, he had two fumbles, one returned for a touchdown, and the Green Wave were outgained by nearly 100 yards.  It's actually surprising they only lost by 7.  Not only is he not passing, but he's in there for his rushing, and after rushing for over 40 yards in 8 of the 10 games he finished last year, he has 29 rushing yards TOTAL through three games this year.  This version of Jonathan Banks isn't good enough to get Tulane bowl eligible, let alone win a division or push the Buckeyes in the Horseshoe.  To start they need to get Terren Encalade involved.  The 5th year senior was Tulane's leading receiver each of the past two seasons, and after catching 8 balls for 189 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with a 38 yard run, in the opener against Wake Forest, he's only had 3 touches for 59 yards over the past two weeks.  After seeing Wake Forest on Thursday night last week, maybe their defense is just that bad though.  Probably not even going to risk playing Bosa in this one.

OHIO STATE 51, TULANE 10

#24 Michigan State Spartans (1-1) at Indiana Hoosiers (3-0)

7:30 - Bloomington, IN - BTN

Kind of a weird start to the season for Michigan State means we probably know less about them than any team in the conference.  A Friday night opener against Utah State, then a trip out west to play in the middle of the night, then a bye week.  This is a big one.  Win this and you've got a terrible looking Central Michigan team, followed by a struggling Northwestern,  before facing Penn State and Michigan in back to back weeks.  You can at least go into that feeling ok at 4-1, and maybe writing off the Arizona State loss as a close loss in a tough environment, where the conference as a whole is 0-10.  Lose this, with Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State to come, and the talk, three games in has already shifted from Big Ten title contender to bowl eligibility.  The first two games have been shaped by unit dichotomies.  The Spartans are averaging 8.3 ypp through the air (#2 in the Big Ten), but only 3.3 ypc on the ground (#13).  They are only allowing 1.3 ypc (#1 in the entire nation), but are giving up a Big Ten worst 349.5 ypg through the air.  The oddest part about the defense is how the front seven play has keyed the run defense, but their lack of pass rush has been the bigger problem in pass defense.  Indiana plays the same style that Arizona State did, and wil look to kill Michigan State on short passing plays.  The question is whether Peyton Ramsey is up for it.  The step up from his freshman to his sophomore year has been immense.  He's now #2 in the Big Ten, and #16 nationally in Total QBR, mostly thanks to a Big Ten best 74% completion percentage.  But he's doing it with his legs too.  His 106 rushing yards is 2nd among Big Ten quarterbacks, behind Trace McSorley.  This is the style he's comfortable with though.  Quick short passes, relying on his accuracy.  That's why he leads in completion percentage, but is only 10th in yards per attempt.  As long as he's picking up first downs, doesn't matter how long it takes.  And the Hoosiers are picking up first downs, 26.0 of them per game, 2nd in the conference.  That's trouble for a Michigan State defense that couldn't get off the field in their first two games, surrendering the league's second most first downs, with the worst 3rd down defense (44.8%).  Michigan State needs to fix that, and finish drives.  It's why I prefer points per red zone trip over red zone percentage.  The Spartans' 90% looks fine, 4th best in the Big Ten.  But they've only scored touchdowns on 50% of those, only Purdue is worse.  It comes out to 4.7 points per trip.  Then you look at a team like Indiana, who is 10th, at 78.6%, but finding the end zone, and averaging 4.9 points per trip.  If Michigan State can get the Hoosiers off the field, and finish their own drives in the end zone, they should be fine.  But Indiana's offense is built to attack defenses the way Michigan State is most vulnerable.  Throw in that it's a home, night game, and it'll be time for Michigan State to reevaluate their 2018 goals.

INDIANA 26, MICHIGAN STATE 24

***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***

#18 Wisconsin Badgers (2-1) at Iowa Hawkeyes (3-0)

8:30 - Iowa City, IA - FOX

This was a game I had pegged as an Iowa upset win in the preseason.  That was before the Iowa defense looked otherworldly, and Wisconsin's trench play looked as down to Earth as we've seen.  While Wisconsin's style of attack has sometimes come up short in the biggest stage, it has been nearly foolproof in grinding inferior teams into the ground.  That changed last week as not only did BYU win, they beat Bucky at their own game, getting tons of pressure on the outside against the Wisconsin tackles.  They were successful in bottling up Jonathan Taylor, who still got 117 yards on the ground, but needed 26 carries to do so, resulting in the second lowest ypc game of his career, ahead of only the Big Ten Championship Game loss to Ohio State last year.  That has to give hope to an Iowa defense which is playing with its hair on fire, leading the nation in S&P+.  Their 3.5 yards per play allowed is best in the Big Ten.  Iowa has developed a reputation on defense under Kirk Ferentz, but after losing 7 starters, including two unanimous first team All-Americans, from a defense that finished in the bottom half of the Big Ten a year ago has been a shocking start.  None of that matters if Iowa can't get a little bit more offensively, meaning a lot more offensively than they got in this game a year ago.  Coming off their 55-24 drubbing of Ohio State, the Hawkeyes looked to keep their momentum rolling into Madison.  Instead, they put up one of the worst offensive performances I've ever seen, getting outgained 382-66, and having nearly as many turnovers (3) as first downs (5).  The game was only a mildly respectable 38-14 due to a pair of long pick sixes for Joshua Jackson.  Bucky racked up 4 sacks in the game, which was not out of the usual for them.  This year, the play up front defensively has been concerning, something we never say about Wisconsin.  This year?  Their adjusted sack rate is 90th in the nation.  The secondary is playing better than I would have expected, but they need to find a way to get more pressure.  If Nate Stanley gets a clean pocket, it looks like he has shaken the rust from the beginning of the season, when Iowa took care of Northern Illinois in spite of his play.  Last week he threw for over 300 yards on 82% passing.  Kinnick Stadium at night is always unpleasant, but when Iowa is really good, it can become nearly impossible.  I think that and their defense, and a slightly declined Wisconsin defensive line is enough to give the Hawkeyes control of the division.

IOWA 22, WISCONSIN 17

[FearlessF]

Purdue hasn't been as good as expected, but their losses have been by 3, 1, and 4.

I assume they will keep this one close as well.

[ELA]

Just a dabbling of MACtion this week

[Brutus Buckeye]

Ela doesn't often pick the Mac, but when he does.... they are playing Rutgers.

[ELA]

Ela doesn't often pick the Mac, but when he does.... they are playing Rutgers.

Do you blame me?  Although I'd probably pick Buffalo to beat a handful of Big Ten teams on a neutral field right now.  Rutgers, Illinois, Nebraska for sure.  Maybe Purdue and Maryland?  They look like the best team in the MAC to me right now, and after last weekend, the bottom half of the Big Ten looks, eh...

[MarqHusker]

My UW Whitewater alum friends in the office love touting U of Buffalo.   Leipold doing well.

[Brutus Buckeye]

Do you blame me?  Although I'd probably pick Buffalo to beat a handful of Big Ten teams on a neutral field right now.  Rutgers, Illinois, Nebraska for sure.  Maybe Purdue and Maryland?  They look like the best team in the MAC to me right now, and after last weekend, the bottom half of the Big Ten looks, eh...

No I don't. 
Are there any Mac teams that wouldn't be favored vs Rutgers? Maybe Kent? 

[847badgerfan]

My UW Whitewater alum friends in the office love touting U of Buffalo.   Leipold doing well.

I expected him to do well there. He'll be a P5 coach sooner than later.

[Anonymous Coward]

Do you blame me?  Although I'd probably pick Buffalo to beat a handful of Big Ten teams on a neutral field right now.  Rutgers, Illinois, Nebraska for sure.  Maybe Purdue and Maryland?  They look like the best team in the MAC to me right now, and after last weekend, the bottom half of the Big Ten looks, eh...

Maybe I've been spending too much time ogling at the top of the conference, but whoa nelly has the bottom of the conference shell-shocked me into thinking that this is 2008-2012 for the Big Ten all over again.
Admittedly the top has also taken a huge hit so far (Michigan, PSU, MSU, and UW have all had low moments), but the top half is not as low as it was at the height of the SECSECSEC era. I'm not sure when that era began and ended, per se. But I think we started slowly sloping away from it with Clemson/OSU/FSU winning championships and the Big Ten way-upping its coaching game.
Anyway, 2018 has given me eebie-jeebies so far. And I am not the guy to root "B1GB1GB1G!" either.

[Cincydawg]

It is logical to hope teams you beat do well otherwise, and that largely means teams in the your conference, plus one or so OOCs of note.  You can't lose to a pastry though, at home, and expect not to diminish longer term opportunities.

BYU isn't quite a pastry of course, but some of these losses were to donut shop specials.

We still live in a beauty pageant world.

Alabama looks about as good to me as any team I've seen since 1995 Nebraska.  I'm not sure getting to play them in the playoff would be much of a prize this year.  Of course the season is yet young.

[medinabuckeye1]

Alabama looks about as good to me as any team I've seen since 1995 Nebraska.  I'm not sure getting to play them in the playoff would be much of a prize this year.  Of course the season is yet young.

A lot of people thought the same thing about teams like Miami in 2002. If my team gets there and gets crushed by an all-powerful Bama, so be it. I want my team to have that chance.

[Brutus Buckeye]

Bama plays a weak schedule, and is allowed to lose twice and still make the playoffs. Even if they don't win their division. 

[Cincydawg]

The notion Bama could lose twice and not win the conference and make the playoffs is unsupported by any fact.

[Brutus Buckeye]

All of my posts reflect my "opinion" of course. 

I'd be happy to add that disclaimer to my sig line, if it isn't already obvious.