#24 Michigan State (1-0, 2-1) at Indiana (0-1, 3-1) Post Game

[ELA]

Preseason, I felt pretty good about this one, three weeks in, not so much.

Looking at a lot of the computer rankings, this looks close to a toss up on a neutral field, and instead it's a night game in Bloomington.

Stevie Scott has been a hell of a find for them through two games, but Michigan State's front four has done an excellent job shutting down the run.  Ramsey has made that second year leap, he's 2nd in the Big Ten in Total QBR right now, which does adjust for strength of opponent.  Hoosiers' style of attack, much like Northwestern's has always given us fits.  If MSU can shut down Scott with just the front four, that will help a lot.  As good as Ramsey has been, he hasn't HAD to win the game for Indiana yet.

Also funny how quickly things can spiral in the division.  You lose this one, suddenly, while still likely, bowl eligibility becomes something you have to play for at 1-2 with the Big 3 in the East all to come.

[ELA]

I had also missed that David Beedle left the ASU game with an injury.

So while nothing is promised, I feel better knowing that in addition to center struggling, the entire starting left side of the offensive line was out, meaning there is reason to believe it COULD get better.  Problem is Chewins' injury seems to be an easily aggravated back injury, so that may turn into a full year thing.

LJ Scott is listed on the depth chart this week after leaving the ASU game with an injury.  Still no Josiah Scott.

[ELA]

As far as the massive center issues go, still between Matt Allen and Tyler Hugby, with a decision to be made Saturday.

I don't get it, Allen looks not great, but he's a sophomore getting his first extensive experience, Higby is a junior and looked straight up horrible.  He's a solid guard, he hasn't progressed from being a rare 2016 bright spot as a freshman, but he's a solid guard.  He's awaful at center, with far more experience.  To me Allen looks slightly better, with more room for growth.  I'm going to lose it if Higby is back in there Saturday.

[MarqHusker]

Cautious optimism seems to be the theme in local Indy media.  There's definitely surprise at the overall competence of the defense, and the fact that they played and dominated a complete game (Ball St). Aside from blanking Rutgers last year, that's a rare event in Bloomington against non FCS opponents.   Of course IU's past performance has earned them no benefit of the doubt defensively even with the home crowd.  Personally, I think they were on the good side of luck in playing UVA in a monsoon.  That kept Perkins under wraps.  Regardless, they got it done. Ramsey's not a bad QB.   I'm sure they are playing with confidence.   I think I'd like IU at +7, maybe not at +5.

[Anonymous Coward]

The one thing IU has been good at since Tom Allen arrived is defense. I don't have the numbers, but I think they've been in the top third of defenses nationwide since Allen came in as DC in Wilson's last year. Unfortunately, their OC is Mike DeBord. Who ... was meh just fine at Michigan. Not special, but got to that level for a reason and may have been too harshly judged by M fans. 
Still, for being "fine" at Michigan, he is definitely less than that with less talent than Henne, Long, Manningham, Breaston, Baas, Hart, et al.

[Brutus Buckeye]

It would be nice if Indiana could remain undefeated until they play OSU in a few weeks. 

[TyphonInc]

It would be nice if Indiana could remain undefeated until they play OSU in a few weeks.

[ELA]

Some weird hints that true freshman DT Dashaun Mallory may use one of his four games but preserve his redshirt here.

That rule change is really changing a lot of strategy.

I guess the thinking is he is a physical freak at his size, but very, very raw.  No sense in wasting him on certain games, and his lack of technique would burn him against a Michigan or Ohio State or Penn State.  But those middle games, against teams where you could definitely lose, but still have the types of players where his athleticism alone could make a difference, use him.  Could see him getting used in like Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue and Maryland. 

[ELA]

#24 Michigan State Spartans (1-1) at Indiana Hoosiers (3-0)

7:30 - Bloomington, IN - BTN

Kind of a weird start to the season for Michigan State means we probably know less about them than any team in the conference.  A Friday night opener against Utah State, then a trip out west to play in the middle of the night, then a bye week.  This is a big one.  Win this and you've got a terrible looking Central Michigan team, followed by a struggling Northwestern,  before facing Penn State and Michigan in back to back weeks.  You can at least go into that feeling ok at 4-1, and maybe writing off the Arizona State loss as a close loss in a tough environment, where the conference as a whole is 0-10.  Lose this, with Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State to come, and the talk, three games in has already shifted from Big Ten title contender to bowl eligibility.  The first two games have been shaped by unit dichotomies.  The Spartans are averaging 8.3 ypp through the air (#2 in the Big Ten), but only 3.3 ypc on the ground (#13).  They are only allowing 1.3 ypc (#1 in the entire nation), but are giving up a Big Ten worst 349.5 ypg through the air.  The oddest part about the defense is how the front seven play has keyed the run defense, but their lack of pass rush has been the bigger problem in pass defense.  Indiana plays the same style that Arizona State did, and wil look to kill Michigan State on short passing plays.  The question is whether Peyton Ramsey is up for it.  The step up from his freshman to his sophomore year has been immense.  He's now #2 in the Big Ten, and #16 nationally in Total QBR, mostly thanks to a Big Ten best 74% completion percentage.  But he's doing it with his legs too.  His 106 rushing yards is 2nd among Big Ten quarterbacks, behind Trace McSorley.  This is the style he's comfortable with though.  Quick short passes, relying on his accuracy.  That's why he leads in completion percentage, but is only 10th in yards per attempt.  As long as he's picking up first downs, doesn't matter how long it takes.  And the Hoosiers are picking up first downs, 26.0 of them per game, 2nd in the conference.  That's trouble for a Michigan State defense that couldn't get off the field in their first two games, surrendering the league's second most first downs, with the worst 3rd down defense (44.8%).  Michigan State needs to fix that, and finish drives.  It's why I prefer points per red zone trip over red zone percentage.  The Spartans' 90% looks fine, 4th best in the Big Ten.  But they've only scored touchdowns on 50% of those, only Purdue is worse.  It comes out to 4.7 points per trip.  Then you look at a team like Indiana, who is 10th, at 78.6%, but finding the end zone, and averaging 4.9 points per trip.  If Michigan State can get the Hoosiers off the field, and finish their own drives in the end zone, they should be fine.  But Indiana's offense is built to attack defenses the way Michigan State is most vulnerable.  Throw in that it's a home, night game, and it'll be time for Michigan State to reevaluate their 2018 goals.

INDIANA 26, MICHIGAN STATE 24

[FearlessF]

great, I took Sparty and gave 5 points

[ELA]

Saw MSU is 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 games as road favorites.

I think a good deal of those were wins, but without covering.  2015 seems like it was full of those.  I'll settle for that.

[FearlessF]

2-9 would be very good today

I gave the points to the Hoosiers

[SuperMario]

2-9 would be very good today

I gave the points to the Hoosiers

I think you’re safe there. Seems like too many people giving up on State early. I expect a big win today. 

[FearlessF]

I've been unlucky so far this season

last night was good to me with the UCF and PSU wins covering