Honestly, the ACC is strong enough that the flagship schools won't be the first to bolt. Which means it's probably safe, because the B1G and the ACC aren't going to rush to grab the non-flagship schools.
I still think the B12 is the one that is ripe for the picking. That conference is Texas and Oklahoma. Everyone else is expendable.
- WVU isn't a good fit, geographically or otherwise. I think they'd join the B1G, ACC, or SEC in a heartbeat.
- Kansas has standalone value for basketball, but I think they'd be just as happy to join the B1G as be in the B12.
- KSU has a better football program than football, but isn't a marquee pickup. They'll jump anywhere more stable than the B12 that will take them.
- ISU/OkSU/TCU/Baylor/TTech are all teams that nobody will really care about if they don't get lost. So again, if any of them could find a better offer, I think they'd take it for more stability than the B12.
So this can go two ways.
First is that a conference like the B1G and/or ACC decides to start the move to 16 without waiting on Texas/OU. In that case, the first one to grab WVU/Kansas wins, or replace one of those schools with ND if they can manage it. That drops the B12 to 8 or 9, and everyone will start working on the exit strategy from there.
Second is if TX/OU smell blood in the water and decide to go to the SEC or the B1G together. Again, that leaves the rest of the B12 trying to find seats on the titanic. If the SEC gets TX/OU, I see the B1G taking WVU and Kansas, and the ACC making a HARD push to get ND and find a 16th school wherever they can.
Either way, I think the PAC then stays at 12 a while. I don't think they've got any viable an attractive prospects unless they got TX/OU, which they won't get.
There is a lot in here that I do not agree with:
First is the possibility of WVU to the B1G. IMHO, never going to happen. For one thing, West Virginia is a small population state (#38, right behind our current smallest, Nebraska with 1.8 Million and with low or negative growth. Second, WVU is not up to the academic standards that the conference would like to see. Finally, unlike Nebraska or Oklahoma, they don't have a humongous national "helmet" following. I just can't see the advantage of adding West Virginia.
Second, Kansas: I think that the possibility of Kansas to the B1G is almost as unlikely as WVU. Kansas is only marginally more populous (#35 with 2.9 Million and low growth). I know nothing of Kansas' academics even if they are stellar I don't see that and great basketball being enough to make up for low population and terrible football.
Third, Notre Dame: I think the ND to the B1G ship sailed a long time ago and it isn't coming back. They obviously have a huge national football following but I continue to believe that as our country becomes progressively less religious Notre Dame's football following will necessarily decline. Back in the 1950's nearly everyone in the US was at least nominally christian so the major divide was between the majority Protestants and the minority Catholics. Minorities in any setting tend to stick together so it is no surprise that the minority Catholics stuck together and pretty much all rooted for the National Catholic School, Notre Dame.
Back then there was also a MUCH larger chasm between Catholics and Protestants. The Catholic hierarchy and many everyday Catholics still saw Protestants as godless heathens while many protestants still saw Catholics as Papal Idoltarists (sp?). The world has changed. Nearly all Catholics and Protestants today simply see each other as fellow Christians. This lack of differentiation means that Catholics are less likely to be Notre Dame fans such that going forward I think that their national following will decline.
The other issue with Notre Dame is that their academics aren't even in the B1G's universe. I've been flat laughed at by Notre Dame fans when I say that because they look at undergrad rankings.
Per USNR, Notre Dame is the nations #18 school and the only B1G schools they are behind are #10 Northwestern and #3 Chicago (most people not on this forum would never consider Chicago anyway). In the USNR rankings, the rest of the B1G schools are #27 Michigan, #46 Illinois, #49 Wisconsin, #56 Ohio State, #56 Purdue, #56 Rutgers, #59 Penn State, #63 Maryland, #76 Minnesota, #85 Michigan State, #89 Indiana, #89 Iowa, and #129 Nebraska.
Looking at undergraduate academics and using the USNR rankings as a proxy, adding Notre Dame would be a HUGE improvement to the B1G's academics as they would be the #2 or #3 school in the league (depending on whether or not you count Chicago). The thing is that the academic alliance of the B1G has almost nothing to do with undergraduate academics. It is all about graduate programs and specifically research. On that front Notre Dame would be last in the B1G and it isn't even close.
Here are the top research budgets
from a site I found on a quick google search along with all B1G member and some of the potential additions we have discussed:
- #1 Johns Hopkins - quasi member
- #2 Michigan, member
- #3 UC-San Francisco
- #4 Penn
- #5 Washington
- #6 Wisconsin, member
- #7 UCSD
- #8 Duke
- #9 Harvard
- #10 Stanford
- #11 UNC
- #12 UCLA
- #13 Cornell
- #14 MIT
- #15 Yale
- #16 Pitt
- #17 Minnesota, member
- #18 NYU
- #19 aTm
- #20 Columbia
- #21 UT-M.D. Anderson Cancer Center (as I understand it this is somewhat part of UT-A, but not really?)
- #22 Ohio State, member
- #23 Penn State, member
- #24 GaTech
- #25 Florida
- #29 Northwestern
- #32 Michigan State
- #33 Rutgers
- #35 Texas
- #36 Illinois
- #37 Purdue
- #43 Maryland
- #45 Indiana
- #46 VaTech
- #49 Iowa
- #51 Virginia
- #55 Chicago
- #77 Nebraska
- #78 Kansas
- #84 Oklahoma
- #90 Mizzou
- #101 Notre Dame
- #117 West Virginia
- #132 Syracuse
