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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2018, 11:42:17 AM

Title: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2018, 11:42:17 AM
Same rules, FSU won handily last season of course.

I'll take Miami at 8, Alex.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: FearlessF on August 29, 2018, 12:03:20 PM
are you sure the Horns didn't win last season?

I'll take them again
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: SFBadger96 on August 29, 2018, 12:15:20 PM
I think Auburn might be living on the glory of a couple of good games to close out last season. I'll go with the Tigers of the Plainsman and War Eagle variety.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: ELA on August 29, 2018, 03:49:18 PM
I'll take Stanford.  I think for the first time in a long time, their defense is very suspect.  They go to Eugene, to South Bend, and to Seattle.  They'd have to win every other game, which includes home games with USC, Utah and Washington State, plus a trip to Tempe, just to tread water.  I could see a 7-5 type season coming their way.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 29, 2018, 04:43:17 PM
The Wolverines
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Mdot21 on August 29, 2018, 04:49:08 PM
The Wolverines
what? They are ranked 14th. You need to get a new schtick.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: utee94 on August 29, 2018, 05:13:16 PM
are you sure the Horns didn't win last season?

I'll take them again
Obsession noted.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: rolltidefan on August 29, 2018, 05:30:23 PM
might as well put it here also

link (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=4923.0)
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 29, 2018, 05:53:56 PM
Georgia
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Mdot21 on August 29, 2018, 06:51:22 PM
Georgia
not a bad pick. They lost a lot to NFL/graduation.
Going to be interesting to see how Jake Fromm adjusts from game manager to now being THE MAN where it'll fall on him to really drive that ship.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2018, 07:14:36 PM
This is the most talented UGA team I've ever seen, which doesn't mean they don't lose games of course.  But their schedule is pretty easy comparatively unless someone turns out to be really good we don't expect.  They will miss Roquan of course.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 29, 2018, 07:20:37 PM
It's not a deep study pick, merely a situational one:  UGA came from the woodwork to burst onto the grand stage, only to lose a lot of the important pieces.  Sort of like a wave - it recedes after it breaks.  If UGA had been at a more elite level 2 years ago, regression would be less likely, of course.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on August 29, 2018, 07:27:09 PM
Yup, I see that, I have no issue with your pick, I was just noting the talent level as I see it in Athens.  They have been recruiting light out of course.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Anonymous Coward on August 29, 2018, 07:44:46 PM
I'll take Stanford.  I think for the first time in a long time, their defense is very suspect.  They go to Eugene, to South Bend, and to Seattle.  They'd have to win every other game, which includes home games with USC, Utah and Washington State, plus a trip to Tempe, just to tread water.  I could see a 7-5 type season coming their way.
It has been happening for a while. Even with the imperfections of total offense/total defense, there's no denying it wasn't impressive for Stanford to finish #79/#76. It'll be interesting to see if they continue that slide or if Shaw can reverse it.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: CatsbyAZ on August 29, 2018, 08:30:21 PM
I know they are barely ranked but IMO LSU is no better than a 5 or 6 win team this year. Even with the transfers in to shore up the QB stability there’s just been so much chaos and incompetence on that side of the ball that fixing it goes beyond fielding a dependable QB. Coach O is the worst kind of coach to have near an offense because not only is he clueless but unlike Les Miles he has zero sense of hiring a coordinator who can be counted on.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 29, 2018, 09:18:48 PM
UCF
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: FearlessF on August 29, 2018, 10:23:21 PM
UCF
no love for the new staff?
or just change?  and last season was magic and the magic is gone?
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: FearlessF on August 29, 2018, 10:32:20 PM
not a bad pick. They lost a lot to NFL/graduation.
Going to be interesting to see how Jake Fromm adjusts from game manager to now being THE MAN where it'll fall on him to really drive that ship.
I wouldn't bet against him or the team around him
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: TyphonInc on August 30, 2018, 07:04:57 AM
 Ohio State
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Temp430 on August 30, 2018, 07:25:46 AM
Penn State
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 30, 2018, 08:05:36 AM
no love for the new staff?
or just change?  and last season was magic and the magic is gone?
Flash in the pan.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: ELA on August 30, 2018, 09:35:02 AM
Flash in the pan.
2nd undefeated season in 4 years
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2018, 09:53:19 AM
The problem for UCF here is how hard they would fall with a loss.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 30, 2018, 09:59:50 AM
2nd undefeated season in 4 years
And a national title.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: rolltidefan on August 30, 2018, 10:09:27 AM
2nd undefeated season in 4 years
ucf? what other year were they undefeated?
i see:
2013 - 12-1
2014 - 9-4
2015 - 0-12
2016 - 6-7
2017 - 13-0
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: ELA on August 30, 2018, 10:24:25 AM
ucf? what other year were they undefeated?
i see:
2013 - 12-1
2014 - 9-4
2015 - 0-12
2016 - 6-7
2017 - 13-0
I was thinking that Fiesta Bowl team was undefeated.  My point was only that they aren't a flash in the pan.  0-12 was far more shocking than 13-0.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2018, 10:25:12 AM
What is the most under ranked team in ELA's ratings compared with the AP?
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: rolltidefan on August 30, 2018, 10:28:47 AM
I was thinking that Fiesta Bowl team was undefeated.  My point was only that they aren't a flash in the pan.  0-12 was far more shocking than 13-0.
maybe not. but i'd also think 8-5 is more likely than 13-0 again. and 8-5 for them is a decent drop from where they are.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: ELA on August 30, 2018, 10:30:44 AM
What is the most under ranked team in ELA's ratings compared with the AP?
Iowa, I have them 20 spots higher (20 vs. 40)

Northwestern is 19 spots higher (19 vs. 38), Boston College 16 spots (21 vs. 37)

I believe those are the three largest.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: ELA on August 30, 2018, 10:31:33 AM
maybe not. but i'd also think 8-5 is more likely than 13-0 again. and 8-5 for them is a decent drop from where they are.
I would think 8-5 would be a massive disappointment.  I think 13-0 is more likely than that.  11-2 vs. 13-0?  Ok.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: rolltidefan on August 30, 2018, 11:03:06 AM
What is the most under ranked team in ELA's ratings compared with the AP?

   
ELAAPELA>AP
1ClemsonAlabama-1
2AlabamaClemson+1
3WisconsinGeorgia-3
4AuburnWisconsin+1
5Michigan StateOhio State-2
6GeorgiaWashington-2
7Ohio StateOklahoma-6
8WashingtonMiami (FL)-6
9Penn StateAuburn+5
10UCFPenn State+1
11MichiganMichigan State+6
12Notre DameNotre Dame0
13OklahomaStanford-11
14Miami (FL)Michigan+3
15Mississippi StateUSC-1
16USCTCU-12
17Virginia TechWest Virginia-26
18South CarolinaMississippi State+3
19NorthwesternFlorida State-3
20IowaVirginia Tech+3
21Boston CollegeUCF+11
22Florida StateBoise State-1
23Boise StateTexas-13
24StanfordOregon-7
25Oklahoma StateLSU-16
26Kansas StSouth Carolina+8
27UtahFlorida-18(+)
28Wake ForrestUtah+1
29TCUOK St+4
30NC StateFAU-4
31OregonArizona-11
32Georgia TechNC St+2
33DukeTexas a&m-12(+)
34FAUBC+13
35Iowa StateNW+16
36TexasKansas St+10
37PurdueIowa St+2
38Fresno StHouston-7(+)
39LouisvilleMemphis-6(+)
40Washington StTroy-5(+)
41LSUIowa+21
42ArizonaKentucky-3(+)
43WVUArk St-2(+)
44Arizona StFresno St+6
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2018, 02:24:33 PM
Looks like Florida, LSU, and WVU, right?
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on September 04, 2018, 12:05:30 PM
Same rules, FSU won handily last season of course.

I'll take Miami at 8, Alex.
Miami looks like a decent pick at the moment, the only top  ten team to lose, though PSU "tied".
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Entropy on September 04, 2018, 12:32:33 PM
The fact that Miami doesn't have a medium range passing game.. at all...  I think they are my over ranked team.   Decent defenses will give them trouble. 
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: FearlessF on September 04, 2018, 06:41:00 PM
I'll stick with the Longhorns
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: rook119 on September 06, 2018, 11:12:20 PM
yes they are no longer in the top 40 but Arizona looked terrible. They can't run the ball or pass it deep because the OL is a sieve. Tate only had 8 carries (some were sacks) for 14 yards (which I think was his per carry avg last year) and they only called a designed run for him like 2-3 times the whole game. The D isn't much better (if at all) either. 
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: rook119 on September 06, 2018, 11:17:04 PM
UCF
Probably unlikely they go undefeated again (everyone has a bad game). Toughest games on their sched are Pitt, Cincy, and at Memphis. They should be favored in every game by at least 7. 
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 07, 2018, 01:31:23 AM
Ga Tech is favored @ UCF
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: bayareabadger on September 07, 2018, 07:38:42 AM
Ga Tech is favored @ UCF
That’s because it’s USF. 
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: utee94 on September 07, 2018, 10:56:12 AM
I'll stick with the Longhorns
Obsession noted.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on September 07, 2018, 02:37:58 PM
That’s because it’s USF.
Other than that, ...
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 07, 2018, 08:22:02 PM
I'm sticking with the Wolverines. 
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: utee94 on September 07, 2018, 11:28:34 PM
Sadly I'm going with Texas.  Sucking sucks.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: FearlessF on September 09, 2018, 08:33:21 PM
I understand your Obsession
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: utee94 on September 09, 2018, 10:56:36 PM
I understand your Obsession
Your obsession with my obsession... noted. 
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: rolltidefan on September 13, 2018, 10:16:12 AM
why is this pinned?
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Hoss on September 16, 2018, 10:15:33 AM
Is it possible for a team to be unranked and have no expectations assigned to it, and still be overrated?

Asking for 1.8 million friends. 
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: bayareabadger on September 16, 2018, 03:16:54 PM
Is it possible for a team to be unranked and have no expectations assigned to it, and still be overrated?

Asking for 1.8 million friends.
Not really. We have a bad habit of making overrated a really wide-reaching word.
That team would be considered ... bad. 
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on September 16, 2018, 05:29:52 PM
The season is interesting.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: FearlessF on September 18, 2018, 10:55:23 AM
OK, I'd like to swap the surprising Horns for the Trojans
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: ELA on September 24, 2018, 11:34:10 AM
I'll take Stanford.  I think for the first time in a long time, their defense is very suspect.  They go to Eugene, to South Bend, and to Seattle.  They'd have to win every other game, which includes home games with USC, Utah and Washington State, plus a trip to Tempe, just to tread water.  I could see a 7-5 type season coming their way.
Nailed it!  :sign0137:
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: utee94 on September 26, 2018, 10:45:27 PM
OK, I'd like to swap the surprising Horns for the Trojans
You realize this is just back-handed, right? :)
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: FearlessF on September 26, 2018, 11:23:38 PM
right
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on October 01, 2018, 08:48:41 AM
So far, no obvious Big Busts.  LSU and Florida have looked decent so far.  Kentucky is a surprise on the upside of course.

Notre Dame has passed most of its tests already, so has Clemson for the most part.  The ACC is not looking very strong to me this season.

Washington looks pretty solid, which makes Auburn look competitive also, which in turn makes LSU look good.  That was a big game for perception.  Penn State looked like a possible flop after Appy State almost did their thing.  Georgia looks a bit suspect to me, we'll find out more soon enough.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 02, 2018, 11:02:29 PM
Still plenty of opportunities for the Wolverines to plummet. 
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: FearlessF on October 03, 2018, 03:21:56 PM
Always looking on the bright side
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 17, 2018, 05:43:05 PM
Still plenty of opportunities for the Wolverines to plummet.
Or Wisconsin.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on October 21, 2018, 10:02:33 AM
Auburn may be the biggest bust so far, and Penn State is on the cusp depending.

Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 30, 2018, 10:51:01 PM
The University of Wisconsin Badgers.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: bamajoe on October 31, 2018, 07:20:52 AM
There are three teams that might qualify; Auburn, Washington and Wisconsin. They are interchangeable.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Entropy on October 31, 2018, 11:17:05 AM
all three of those are a surprise to me.   They haven't been near as strong even in their wins as expected.  
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 08, 2018, 01:31:19 PM
I don't know anything about Auburn and Washington other than their schedules, but I know that Wisconsin's defense started the season somewhat depleted by injuries, and has accumulated significantly more injured players in key positions over the course of the season.

Were the Badgers overrated to start the year, barring those injuries? Probably a little. When factoring the rash of injuries in? Way overrated.

I won't lose any sleep over that, but there will be hand wringing in the future the next time people start to suggest that the Badgers should start the season in the top 10.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2018, 07:04:47 AM
Auburn is just a flawed team without balance.  They struggle to run the ball effectively this season.  Stidham can make nice throws if not hurried, but you need to RTDB.  They have some talent in the DL and elsewhere on defense here and there, not an awful team by any means, but not very good overall.  Malzahn takes most of the blame of course but just signed a lucrative contract with the usual.

Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2018, 08:08:49 AM
Same rules, FSU won handily last season of course.

I'll take Miami at 8, Alex.
"We" kinda forgot about Miami in all of this, preseason 8 would be high expectations, something like 11-2 season.  They just lost to Georgia Tech.
They are 2-4 in a very weak Coastal division and 5-5 overall.  I watched one of their games are noticed poor discipline, bad penalties, goofy turnovers, and in general rather uninspiring play, which reminded me of something in my fairly recent past.
A friend is a big Miami fan and told me he was delighted to get our cast off and I suggested he hold that thought.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2018, 08:10:23 AM
 
ELAAPELA>AP
1ClemsonAlabama-1
2AlabamaClemson+1
3WisconsinGeorgia-3
4AuburnWisconsin+1
5Michigan StateOhio State-2
6GeorgiaWashington-2
7Ohio StateOklahoma-6
8WashingtonMiami (FL)-6
9Penn StateAuburn+5
10UCFPenn State+1
11MichiganMichigan State+6
12Notre DameNotre Dame0
13OklahomaStanford-11
14Miami (FL)Michigan+3
15Mississippi StateUSC-1
16USCTCU-12
17Virginia TechWest Virginia-26
18South CarolinaMississippi State+3
19NorthwesternFlorida State-3
20IowaVirginia Tech+3
21Boston CollegeUCF+11
22Florida StateBoise State-1
23Boise StateTexas-13
24StanfordOregon-7
25Oklahoma StateLSU-16
26Kansas StSouth Carolina+8
27UtahFlorida-18(+)
28Wake ForrestUtah+1
29TCUOK St+4
30NC StateFAU-4
31OregonArizona-11
32Georgia TechNC St+2
33DukeTexas a&m-12(+)
34FAUBC+13
35Iowa StateNW+16
36TexasKansas St+10
37PurdueIowa St+2
38Fresno StHouston-7(+)
39LouisvilleMemphis-6(+)
40Washington StTroy-5(+)
41LSUIowa+21
42ArizonaKentucky-3(+)
43WVUArk St-2(+)
44Arizona StFresno St+6

So, to this point, is ELA doing better than the AP?
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: ELA on November 14, 2018, 09:34:35 AM
Doubtful, considering I had Wisconsin, Auburn and Michigan State in my top 5.

Granted that was my "on paper" rankings.  I'd look more at my Game by Game picks, to see what I had the poll being at this point, which was...


Virginia Tech and Miami look to be my most overrated teams.  Iowa not far behind.  Even though I didn't like NC State (had them outside my top 30) I did think their schedule would allow them some success (which it had until the past week), and I also thought Washington State would stay strong.  I underrated Michigan's ability to survive a tough schedule, but I also overrated just how tough those road trips to Evanston and East Lansing would be.  Didn't think those two teams would have a combined 9 losses by this point, and those were the 2 losses I incorrectly picked UM to have.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on November 15, 2018, 02:41:00 PM
It's good to take a shot and better to analyze after the fact also.

Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 25, 2018, 11:11:10 AM
Wisconsin is very close to taking the big prize this season.


Preseason AP

Wisconsin: 7-5 (4)
Miami: 7-5 (8)
Auburn: 7-5 (9)
Michigan State:7-5 (11)
Stanford: 7-4 (13)
USC: 5-7 (15)
TCU: 6-6 (16)
Florida State: 5-7 (19)
Va. Tech: 5-6 (20)
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2018, 11:17:21 AM
Nobody else can go from 4th to unranked.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 25, 2018, 12:15:05 PM
Yep, it's probably over, but we still have to wait for the bowl games to wrap up and count any (not likely) votes in the "receiving votes" category.



Something to be proud of though. At least the boys got something done this season. I blame this:



(https://tse3.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.tbO1bMQvKP_OhMnhPnLxuQHaJy&pid=Api)
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: FearlessF on November 25, 2018, 12:23:47 PM
the curse is STRONG!!!
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 25, 2018, 12:47:36 PM
Yep. Not everyone is Michael Jordan.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on November 26, 2018, 12:41:20 PM
I saw one listing somewhere that had the UGA OL with the highest average weight.

Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: ELA on November 26, 2018, 02:47:31 PM
With the regional covers is the curse still a thing?  I think like a half dozen teams/players are on the cover each week.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 29, 2018, 02:10:58 PM
what? They are ranked 14th. You need to get a new schtick.
In hindsight they pretty much nailed that one. Good call. 
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on December 03, 2018, 07:47:31 AM
I think the loser of the Miami-Wisconsin bowl game will win this dubious article of distinction.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: SFBadger96 on December 03, 2018, 11:26:44 AM
I think the loser of the Miami-Wisconsin bowl game will win this dubious article of distinction.

Clicked on this thread to say just this. I think NYC over the holidays will be a nice trip for the teams (and probably fans, too), but I doubt the game will be a big attraction.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on December 13, 2018, 03:03:40 PM
I picked Florida as most under ranked this year, and Miami for most over.

Florida will likely finish 9-4, not bad, but not much higher than they started really.

I don't think we had a really under ranked team this season.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: SFBadger96 on December 13, 2018, 05:21:37 PM
Northwestern and Washington State were both overlooked before putting in strong seasons.
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on December 13, 2018, 06:54:10 PM
My criteria were purely AP rankings differential.  Wazzu is a good example I think, NW perhaps if they win their bowl game.

Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: SFBadger96 on January 02, 2019, 11:26:53 AM
So Northwestern and Wazzu come out looking pretty good on the upside...

Auburn abused Purdue (probably not the bowl game the Tigers dream of) to avoid the basement, and Wisconsin does the same to Miami, firmly putting the Canes there. Hooray?
Title: Re: Most over ranked team
Post by: Cincydawg on January 04, 2019, 09:00:04 AM
ELAAPELA>AP
1ClemsonAlabama-1
2AlabamaClemson+1
3WisconsinGeorgia-3
4AuburnWisconsin+1
5Michigan StateOhio State-2
6GeorgiaWashington-2
7Ohio StateOklahoma-6
8WashingtonMiami (FL)-6
9Penn StateAuburn+5
10UCFPenn State+1
11MichiganMichigan State+6
12Notre DameNotre Dame0
13OklahomaStanford-11
14Miami (FL)Michigan+3
15Mississippi StateUSC-1
16USCTCU-12
17Virginia TechWest Virginia-26
18South CarolinaMississippi State+3
19NorthwesternFlorida State-3
20IowaVirginia Tech+3
21Boston CollegeUCF+11
22Florida StateBoise State-1
23Boise StateTexas-13
24StanfordOregon-7
25Oklahoma StateLSU-16