There's no real Texas fan out there who would take the blender-birds lightly. They're a consistently above average team that loves to take it to Texas. Given all the intangibles in the atmosphere (read: playing on the road on Thursday), Texas is sure to be in for a fight.
If you would have told me that Texas was going to have 4 turnovers against USC, I'd have braced for a 55-7 laugher. The Texas defense played violent, assignment football where everyone did the job they were recruited to do. I love Sam, and he has a wide open future. However, if he's more careful with the ball, Texas wins that game.
If the offense is not going to feature the QB run (or threat thereof), then Shane is by far the more accurate passer. If he's healed, he's the guy.