I had a reasonably pleasant discussion with a USC fan in the reader responses to an article about Muleshoe's change of venue on Yahoo! Sports. This was a week or so after the midnight phone call led to the predawn departure (per Muleshoe's account).
At the end, I predicted that Muleshoe would make a big, immediate improvement from USC's 4-8 record of 2021. But I said he'll lose a game or two that he shouldn't, and that the first year would probably be the best one. That was his pattern at OU, and I figured it would hold true for the future.
He offered some reasonable arguments that my prediction would not hold up, and we ended the conversation agreeing to disagree.
Well, Muleshoe has made the big improvement and he's lost games he shouldn't have. Time will tell whether this year will be his best year at USC.
Lincoln Riley is obviously an outstanding offensive coordinator, and in 2017 he was probably as ready to be a big-time CFB coach as anyone is who has not already been one. But he had some gaps in his skillset that needed to be filled.
Those same gaps still need to be filled. He has not grown as a head coach. The interesting part of the game to him is matching his wits as OC against an opposing defense. The other stuff--defense, special teams, clock management, complementary football--is an afterthought.