An interesting parallel. We all see contested CFB games that hinged on a tipped pass, a missed block, and untimely penalty, a turnover, an injury, a slightly overthrown or dropped pass ... on such things hinge outcomes. Then there is play calling, catching just the right play (or wrong) in a situation where it goes for a large gain.
A 7 point favorite will win MOST of the time, but lose about a third of the time, and folks are amazed at it.