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Topic: The Porch, y'all. pull up a seat and kick back.

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MikeDeTiger

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Re: The Porch, y'all. pull up a seat and kick back.
« Reply #2702 on: September 15, 2021, 01:36:21 PM »
We don't. Yet.

The FDA (and the folks resigning from it) seems to believe a booster is not needed.

We do know that its mutating.  That's not in question.  Delta is the main one that's here now, there are others.  Right now the vaccines are off to a very promising start in dealing with the delta variant.  The more it mutates, though, the less the original vaccines are going to work.  It's no different than the flu, and that's a different vaccine every year, because the strain they're chasing is different every year.  Granted I don't think the people I get my info from have seen that in studies, but using their knowledge of viruses, that's the likely trajectory.  Anything that mutates cannot remain subject to a single vaccine indefinitely.  

As far as the 8 month thing....I'll ask how solid that is.  She doesn't tell me things like that.  She tells me quick and easy to memorize things to pass on to the never-ending string of calls we get.  Again, one of our patients, also a doctor, tested his own antibodies 8 months out, and had none. 

What I don't know is if there might be benefit to ever having had antibodies.  I know it's not nearly as good as having them, but for all I know, having had antibodies and no longer having them may be better than never having had them at all.  Presumably the same would apply to recovered covid cases.  Natural antibodies supposedly only last so long as well, so it's worth wondering if people who had covid are likely to fair better if they get it again, later than the time their natural immunity has stopped keeping a blueprint for stopping the thing.  Right now I don't know of anyone in that category.  There are people in our county who have gotten covid twice, but still within the window of time of natural immunity.  No surprise, they absolutely fair better the second time.  

Cincydawg

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Re: The Porch, y'all. pull up a seat and kick back.
« Reply #2703 on: September 15, 2021, 01:39:41 PM »
The experience in Israel, where folks were vaccinated very early on, suggests the resistants does start to attentuate in ~8 months or so, and that coincided with Delta hitting them.  Maybe efficacy was down to 50-70%, that was low enough to allow spread (which appears to be dropping now).

They are going ahead with a booster, and news today suggests a booster is effective.  They still are at a 64.5% vax rate in Israel (not nearly that high for folks under 16 of course).

847badgerfan

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Re: The Porch, y'all. pull up a seat and kick back.
« Reply #2704 on: September 15, 2021, 02:20:13 PM »
We do know that its mutating.  That's not in question.  Delta is the main one that's here now, there are others.  Right now the vaccines are off to a very promising start in dealing with the delta variant.  The more it mutates, though, the less the original vaccines are going to work.  It's no different than the flu, and that's a different vaccine every year, because the strain they're chasing is different every year.  Granted I don't think the people I get my info from have seen that in studies, but using their knowledge of viruses, that's the likely trajectory.  Anything that mutates cannot remain subject to a single vaccine indefinitely. 

As far as the 8 month thing....I'll ask how solid that is.  She doesn't tell me things like that.  She tells me quick and easy to memorize things to pass on to the never-ending string of calls we get.  Again, one of our patients, also a doctor, tested his own antibodies 8 months out, and had none. 

What I don't know is if there might be benefit to ever having had antibodies.  I know it's not nearly as good as having them, but for all I know, having had antibodies and no longer having them may be better than never having had them at all.  Presumably the same would apply to recovered covid cases.  Natural antibodies supposedly only last so long as well, so it's worth wondering if people who had covid are likely to fair better if they get it again, later than the time their natural immunity has stopped keeping a blueprint for stopping the thing.  Right now I don't know of anyone in that category.  There are people in our county who have gotten covid twice, but still within the window of time of natural immunity.  No surprise, they absolutely fair better the second time. 
From my own experience, I had antibodies after 3 months, and then none after 6 months. But, it's not about that really. It's about what your T and B cells do to remember the virus, and know to attack when it comes again (because it will come again, forever).
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Mr Tulip

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Re: The Porch, y'all. pull up a seat and kick back.
« Reply #2705 on: September 15, 2021, 02:22:30 PM »
I would hope that we could all agree on the basic ideas on what viruses are, how they infect and make the human body sick, how your immune system reacts to try and defeat viruses, and how vaccines in general work. I need these concepts understood in the general sense.

The mRNA vaccines are a novel approach to healthcare, but easy to understand (again in the general) if the previous ideas are accepted. In fact, it will immediately become clear that mRNA vaccines are safer and more reliable than previous "killed or weakened pathogen" vaccines. The "RNA" and "DNA" cause some people to skip a knowledge step and jump to some worrying but incorrect conclusions. The "m" is very important in that it removes from possibility a huge range of side effects.

By understanding these facts, it should be easy to intuit that masking will help mitigate, but not eliminate, a "direct strike" infection where someone sneezes or coughs in your general area. Maintaining separation of 6 feet is of little value. Plexiglass shield tend to inhibit local airflow and likely do more harm than good.

And overall, get vaccinated. Unless you're told by a physician not to, or are currently under 12 years old, getting a vaccination runs the likelihood of suffering a serious infection down to single digits. As the vaccine has only been in "general public" adoption for less than one year, the length of efficacy is still being studied, but the efficacy itself is not in question.

"Mandates" is a separate debate. I'm prepared to mention Thomas Hobbes, social contract theory, Rousseau, Locke, and Kantian ethics for starters. The executive summary is that we all greatly benefit from living in a social organization with other humans, that organization requires rules, and rules that serve the largest public good are ethical.

Cincydawg

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Re: The Porch, y'all. pull up a seat and kick back.
« Reply #2706 on: September 15, 2021, 02:26:36 PM »
The "public health exception" to our "rights" is a concern to me, I'd like it to be more clear cut, but perhaps that is impossible.

I'm intrigued with the flu numbers last season, perhaps much was reduced travel from China.

Mr Tulip

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Re: The Porch, y'all. pull up a seat and kick back.
« Reply #2707 on: September 15, 2021, 02:56:40 PM »
Public health isn't an exception to our rights. Unless we're declaring ourselves as completely independent hermits, we're deriving benefit from living together. I'm deliberately not arguing law, but rather ethics and morality. I'll provide citations if requested or as necessary, but I don't want anyone to think I'm just espousing stuff I thought up. I'm not that clever. These are foundational ideas.

America is founded on our spirit of rugged individualism. I respect that. However, we're not mountain trappers or nomads. Those guys didn't live that long, and what life they lived were filled with suffering and hardship. By living together, we can specialize and expand. Living socially provides orders of magnitude greater improvements of life quality.

In living socially, we limit our individualism to achieve that improvement. We agree to rules discouraging behaviors that damage the group. Driving 70 through town would get us all to our destination faster, but some of us will die. I'd like to throw dance parties in my backyard until 2am, but the neighbors have other thoughts. The phrase "your rights end at the tip of my nose" sums up a lot.

I presented a list of vaccinations I'd received before attending any school in my life. Not doing so would have subjected everyone else at school to life altering diseases. My employer is morally obligated to protect my fellow employees, our customers, and all our respective families.

Between the science behind the vaccine being solidly understood, and the extreme threat to public health, mandating vaccines is on solid ground.

Cincydawg

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Re: The Porch, y'all. pull up a seat and kick back.
« Reply #2708 on: September 15, 2021, 04:55:42 PM »
I'm talking about the "public health exception" which can allow government to force individuals to do certain things they may not want to do.

It's a concern of mine that it could be misused as it is poorly defined.

utee94

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Re: The Porch, y'all. pull up a seat and kick back.
« Reply #2709 on: September 15, 2021, 06:13:32 PM »
Kudos to the B12 message board on a great discussion, by the way.


There's zero chance a similar conversation on the Coronavirus thread on the B1G board would have made it even half this long, without me having to nuke about half the posts from orbit.

B12 board >>>> B1G board


Yeah, I said it.

847badgerfan

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Re: The Porch, y'all. pull up a seat and kick back.
« Reply #2710 on: September 15, 2021, 06:39:25 PM »
Florida just declared war on Texas.
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MikeDeTiger

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Re: The Porch, y'all. pull up a seat and kick back.
« Reply #2711 on: September 15, 2021, 07:33:41 PM »
From my own experience, I had antibodies after 3 months, and then none after 6 months. But, it's not about that really. It's about what your T and B cells do to remember the virus, and know to attack when it comes again (because it will come again, forever).

Correct.  The jury is wildly out on that though, as I understand it.  I did ask this evening some of these things to see if I clear up for myself some of the points y'all raised.  When I asked her if ever having had antibodies is of more benefit than someone who never had them, the short answer would be paraphrased something like "Nobody can answer that.  The data various so wildly right now, is so new, and is likely of little value.  I don't know.  Time may tell more.  Or not."  I also got a dissertation about T cells, the difference between what the mRNA vax is teaching our bodies and what natural immunity is doing for us.  Frankly, it was too technical for me to remember and repeat.  There were a metric ton of variables to boot and as opined before, the real world is a lot more complicated than simple slogans and ideologies.  What Doc was firm on is people without antibodies are not in as good of shape as people with them, no matter what your T cells are doing.  My wife was in the conversation and knows her stuff, but frankly is tired of my questions, and as she is currently cooking my supper, I'm not inclined to push her.  

LH320,

you asked a good question so I asked it myself.  "Who says?" and the answer was, again--the shortened version--all the medical research facilities.  Baylor College of Medicine was one she named, these places have been tracking the antibody behavior since development and on into use in the real world.  That's just one of many places.  The data looks pretty solid right now that antibodies go away over time.  I was reminded that 8 months is an average and is by no means applicable to any single individual.  Some people keep their antibodies longer.  Some people less.  We don't know why right now, other than bodies are different.  But again, refer to Badger's point above, antibodies is not the only factor to consider, though it's a biggie.  

MikeDeTiger

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Re: The Porch, y'all. pull up a seat and kick back.
« Reply #2712 on: September 15, 2021, 08:07:12 PM »
Maintaining separation of 6 feet is of little value. Plexiglass shield tend to inhibit local airflow and likely do more harm than good.

And overall, get vaccinated. Unless you're told by a physician not to, or are currently under 12 years old, getting a vaccination runs the likelihood of suffering a serious infection down to single digits. As the vaccine has only been in "general public" adoption for less than one year, the length of efficacy is still being studied, but the efficacy itself is not in question.

I must disagree with the bolded part.  That goes against everything I have been told and explained.  It's certainly not going to fix the problem, but incorrect to say there's no value there. 

The second part, I mostly agree, but there's other demographics who might want to think twice before vaxing.  Some concerns are early and may ultimately amount to nothing--there's no way to know until the years pass and we see whether or not some of the concerns were actually warranted or not.  But again, I caveat that this is still going to be a pretty small segment of the population, and I reiterate overall I agree, I encourage most people to get it.

Here's a pretty good discussion on some other things to consider, if you don't mind the technical stuff.  Don't let it put you into panic mode, but it's worth thinking about.  


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNyAovuUxro

MikeDeTiger

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Re: The Porch, y'all. pull up a seat and kick back.
« Reply #2713 on: September 15, 2021, 08:16:46 PM »
Public health isn't an exception to our rights. Unless we're declaring ourselves as completely independent hermits, we're deriving benefit from living together. I'm deliberately not arguing law, but rather ethics and morality. I'll provide citations if requested or as necessary, but I don't want anyone to think I'm just espousing stuff I thought up. I'm not that clever. These are foundational ideas.

America is founded on our spirit of rugged individualism. I respect that. However, we're not mountain trappers or nomads. Those guys didn't live that long, and what life they lived were filled with suffering and hardship. By living together, we can specialize and expand. Living socially provides orders of magnitude greater improvements of life quality.

In living socially, we limit our individualism to achieve that improvement. We agree to rules discouraging behaviors that damage the group. Driving 70 through town would get us all to our destination faster, but some of us will die. I'd like to throw dance parties in my backyard until 2am, but the neighbors have other thoughts. The phrase "your rights end at the tip of my nose" sums up a lot.

I presented a list of vaccinations I'd received before attending any school in my life. Not doing so would have subjected everyone else at school to life altering diseases. My employer is morally obligated to protect my fellow employees, our customers, and all our respective families.

Between the science behind the vaccine being solidly understood, and the extreme threat to public health, mandating vaccines is on solid ground.

You bring up some valid points here.  Here we have an example of where people may see the same information but have different priorities or values.  I submit it is not clear cut morally superior to argue this vaccine be mandatory in a given setting.  We can discuss further at your convenience.  But I'm not going to poo-poo your notions here, I consider them valid and they should remain at the table of public conversation.  

I would add about the vaccines you and I were required to get for school, we're talking about things like MMR shots, for example, and this is not something I consider equivalent.  What that protects you from kills people.  A lot of people.  With no vaccines whatsoever, covid is over 99% survivable, people with co-morbidities included.  The MMR shot also has a median effectiveness range of something like 50-60 years.  You get that thing, we're done here.  It's long enough to where we have more or less removed those things from the modern world.  We're not talking about the same degree of crisis or comparable diseases or vaccines, at all.  Not right now, anyway. 

MikeDeTiger

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Re: The Porch, y'all. pull up a seat and kick back.
« Reply #2714 on: September 15, 2021, 08:17:30 PM »
Florida just declared war on Texas.

The spread is currently Florida  -17

utee94

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Re: The Porch, y'all. pull up a seat and kick back.
« Reply #2715 on: September 15, 2021, 08:47:30 PM »
The spread is currently Florida  -17
Texas has more people and way more guns.  I like our chances.

"725,368 guns are registered in Texas, the most of any state and 67% more registered guns than second-place Florida."

 

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