header pic

The B12 (XII) Forum, home of the 'Front Porch, y'all' at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: The Big SEC, or the SEC 12... hmmm.

 (Read 11681 times)

Drew4UTk

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 10151
  • Liked:
The Big SEC, or the SEC 12... hmmm.
« on: September 29, 2019, 03:01:12 PM »
The way the top of both conferences play, I'd say they could just about be interchanged.  It's been a while since we've seen an SEC stand on D, as it seems they've adopted what was going on west of them... 

If i had to rank the teams right now there would be two distinct tiers atop it all, then a sizable gap and the rest- some better than others, but just not in that tier. 

Tier One: (no particular order) Alabama, Oklahoma, tOSU, Auburn, LSU, Clemson, 

BREAK

Tier OnePointFive : Wiscy, UGA, perhaps Texas belongs here, and perhaps ND does as well... 

UF has a chance to bust in this weekend, but I am not sold on neither their O or D- they play sloppy as much as on point, and I'm thinking they've simply been surviving.  Wake Forest is undefeated, but... It's hard to take them serious until they play someone.  SMU is also undefeated.  They may be the G5 sweetheart this season? Boise? 

Eyeball testing between week five and six, my guess at how the teams are playing now and how their schedules stack, I'm thinking the Four standing will be:

Oklahoma, tOSU, Clemson, Bama... and that will be the ranking, too.  I don't think UGA will get past Auburn and I don't think Auburn will get past LSU, and I don't think any of them will get past Bama.  I'm thinking the final will be an OU/tOSU affair, and a LOT of points. 

the reason I bring this to the BigXII board is I'm thinking this is OU's year at this point.  But, I also want to point out the similarities of the teams in 'my' final four.... the fact that several players on all four of these teams were all recruited by all four teams, and a couple actually have playing time on opposing teams rosters, it is indicating to me that we're entering a period of parity that is almost parody- one team from another conference imitating teams from others- and it didn't start in the SEC for once.  The style is from the BigXII.  

Seriously, if you take Wiscy out of the conversation, these teams all play similar ball that defies what their conferences looked like ten years ago but absolutely look like the modern preferred method- and you can interchange 'my' last four teams.... it isn't that i'm thinking 'one' is better than another, it's that they're pretty much all the same.... so... pick one.  25% chance of being right. 

CWSooner

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 6045
  • Liked:
Re: The Big SEC, or the SEC 12... hmmm.
« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2019, 05:30:09 PM »
Yeah, there's increasing similarity.  And not just on offense.  Bama's defense has looked a bit spotty this season, while OU's defense has crawled out last year's cellar and--so far--looks "decent."

I think Florida might be a bit overrated.  However, as OAM has said on the Big Ten board, who ya gonna put ahead of 'em?  I'd say Penn State should rank ahead of the Gators, but beyond that, I don't know.

Herbie said last night that Ohio State looks like the most complete team so far.  He's biased on that, of course, but he may be right nevertheless.

Clemson beat Texas A&M, which seems to be pretty good, but in the other games, has not looked dominant.

Auburn might have the best resume right now, but it's hard to see them getting past both Bama and LSU to get to the SEC CCG.

OU would have a tough time making the playoff with a loss, even as Big 12 champ, because its OOC schedule has turned out to be crap.  And it was foreseeable that it might be exactly that, as neither UCLA nor Houston are perennially good programs.  I think that Texas, if it were to run the table, would be a stronger bet for the CFP than a one-loss OU.
Play Like a Champion Today

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 17619
  • Liked:
Re: The Big SEC, or the SEC 12... hmmm.
« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2019, 09:13:48 PM »
The way the top of both conferences play, I'd say they could just about be interchanged.  It's been a while since we've seen an SEC stand on D, as it seems they've adopted what was going on west of them...

If i had to rank the teams right now there would be two distinct tiers atop it all, then a sizable gap and the rest- some better than others, but just not in that tier.

Tier One: (no particular order) Alabama, Oklahoma, tOSU, Auburn, LSU, Clemson,

BREAK

Tier OnePointFive : Wiscy, UGA, perhaps Texas belongs here, and perhaps ND does as well...

UF has a chance to bust in this weekend, but I am not sold on neither their O or D- they play sloppy as much as on point, and I'm thinking they've simply been surviving.  Wake Forest is undefeated, but... It's hard to take them serious until they play someone.  SMU is also undefeated.  They may be the G5 sweetheart this season? Boise?

Eyeball testing between week five and six, my guess at how the teams are playing now and how their schedules stack, I'm thinking the Four standing will be:

Oklahoma, tOSU, Clemson, Bama... and that will be the ranking, too.  I don't think UGA will get past Auburn and I don't think Auburn will get past LSU, and I don't think any of them will get past Bama.  I'm thinking the final will be an OU/tOSU affair, and a LOT of points.

the reason I bring this to the BigXII board is I'm thinking this is OU's year at this point.  But, I also want to point out the similarities of the teams in 'my' final four.... the fact that several players on all four of these teams were all recruited by all four teams, and a couple actually have playing time on opposing teams rosters, it is indicating to me that we're entering a period of parity that is almost parody- one team from another conference imitating teams from others- and it didn't start in the SEC for once.  The style is from the BigXII. 

Seriously, if you take Wiscy out of the conversation, these teams all play similar ball that defies what their conferences looked like ten years ago but absolutely look like the modern preferred method- and you can interchange 'my' last four teams.... it isn't that i'm thinking 'one' is better than another, it's that they're pretty much all the same.... so... pick one.  25% chance of being right.

Texas barely lost to LSU.  I don't see them being on two different tiers.

OU is complete question mark since they haven't played anyone.  I'm not commenting on their scheduling, Houston and UCLA should have been better tests than they were.  But they weren't.  Know what I mean?

Should be a fun race down the stretch.  

Of immediate concern, Texas owes the snot-nosed horns-down hillbilly hordes of West Virginia a big dose of revenge.  Hook 'em.

BrownCounty

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3677
  • Liked:
Re: The Big SEC, or the SEC 12... hmmm.
« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2019, 09:44:22 PM »
Tier One: (no particular order) Alabama, Oklahoma, tOSU, Auburn, LSU, Clemson,

So just to get this out of the way, both Texas and oSu will beat 0U.  There.  It's said.

Drew4UTk

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 10151
  • Liked:
Re: The Big SEC, or the SEC 12... hmmm.
« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2019, 10:13:48 PM »
I only "bumped" Texas a half tier and only nod LSU through because the 0 in loss column.  I think NEXT season is "their" season.  They lose to Bama or Auburn or both, but that is in close matches and not a given, just that reason says they drop one of them.

Auburn is good but I truly believe Swartz, removed, and they are firmly 2nd tier. That little speed demon has to be accounted for on every play he's on field, and the way he's being used is likely concerning opposing DCs to the point they miss the forest for the tree so to speak. 

Clemson still plays with fire. But they have a literal clear path unless wfu is better than I think they are.

OU using MY eyes, are in a league apart right now, and with tOSU, Bama, possibly UGA, LSU, and perhaps Wiscy. 

oSu has the most productive RB in the nation, and he's for real. Texas played a helluva game and game plan against them. That could have gone either way. Just like the LSU game could have.

I don't know who is peaking, who's spent, and who will get better and likely won't till after week 8 or nine. What I'm saying is RIGHT NOW.  if season ended today I've made my offer for the CFP, and looking at them AND the top tier and those just outside of it, other than Wiscy, they ALL play a similar game.  I may expand that and say UGA hasn't fully adopted the same manners as the top tier, but it's closer than wiscy's adoption... Not that either are "out" just because they aren't interchangable.

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 17619
  • Liked:
Re: The Big SEC, or the SEC 12... hmmm.
« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2019, 10:35:31 PM »
I'm really not sure how you're seeing OU in a league of their own when they haven't played anyone with a pulse.  I guess we'll find out in a couple of weeks at the Cotton Bowl. *shrug*
.

Drew4UTk

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 10151
  • Liked:
Re: The Big SEC, or the SEC 12... hmmm.
« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2019, 11:26:30 PM »
i'm watching them execute, that's how.  they are executing complex plays with certainty.  I've watched Texas flounder several times, and it wasn't their competition, it was them.  I hope you see the difference.  

if it means anything, this is the measure at this point in the season.  sure there are some games where the opponent was beat down or the team in question was beat down.  i don't have to look past my Vols to find that.  it's my opinion, and i don't expect it to be adopted, that the biggest opponent a team faces on the field is NOT the other team, but themselves.  If they can get out of their own way they usually win.  it's pretty much that simple in just about every game.  it's the opponents goal to take a team out of their comfort zone or to disrupt enough the team can't find it's rhythm or 'groove'. 

some teams, ala Bama, OU, and tOSU, haven't been pushed by an opponent.. true story.. but the 'eye' test which is watching execution on both sides of the ball tells me both tOSU and OU are for real.  Texas has been pushed- twice.  They were taken out of their comfort zones twice, once ending in loss.  you can think i'm being negative if you want, but i'm not... what i would suggest instead is that team has margin for improvement and there is a good chance they haven't peaked yet.  

OU, on the other hand really can't peak any more than they have- they are clicking... now it's a matter of sustaining, and it's obviously a matter of seeing if they encounter someone capable of taking them out of their groove.  the problem with OU's schedule, insofar as their opponents should be concerned, is they may solidify that 'rhythm' into a groove almost impossible to break- which means you've got to really beat them down 'cause you ain't finessing a win out of the game. 

it's my observation that one team not capable of breaking the other's groove ends up in high scoring affairs- where when both teams are disrupted it's a low scoring event... and when one team, although just as good as the other most the time gets blindsided by some disruptive force either planned or discovered during the game ends up with a blowout that ought not to have been such... ND found a way to disrupt UGA and why i can't give UGA the appreciation right now everyone else seems to have given.  LSU found a way to disrupt Texas.. Texas disrupted oSu... nobody has broken bama's stride (not even bama), nobody has broken tOSU's stride (even tOSU), Wiscy disrupted the hell out of UM's stride, but couldn't get cleanly out of their own way with NW.  They almost beat themselves (not really, but it shouldn't have been as close as they allowed).  UF, as another example, have been lucky- sloppy ball and broken all over, but still winning.  Auburn disrupted the shit out of aTm, but so did Clemson.  Oregon pushed Auburn into throwing down- but that was sans Schwartz- they are a completely different animal with that dimension. 

all of that said- and i don't have a dog in the fight and could care less who wins at this point (my boys are aiming for somewhere around 2028 i think.. er, something like that... if i'm lucky..), what i'm remarking isn't about 'who is better and how the CFP will happen' which would be a thread played over and over in every forum in the land- what i'm saying is the fashion- the style- these mentioned teams play are interchangeable.  you could dress out tOSU in OU's garb, and hardly anyone would notice.  Same with Bama and Clemson.. or any combination... they are playing something 'new', (not really but...), they are playing in a bubble that is obviously the dominating 'type' of game we're going to see a LOT of teams adopting. 

the title of the thread beckons to a thought i had after Dr.Osborne took both the SEC's better teams to the woodshed with his option- UF and UT.. and those teams responded, and the era that came next was shut down aggressive D's- the components of D's changed where the prototypical players for positions changed- RC Slocum and Joe Lee Dunn both played roles... LB's trimmed down and were expected to cover more- DL's picked up speed and started shifting more.  OLB's/DE's began using more flats coverage.. it was answered with spreads and spread options... the game changed in a notable and measurable- maybe 'tangible' is a better term, way.  It was something that could be pointed out- THAT changed. THIS changed. THIS is working more against THAT and is ALSO better than what was before against THAT... the SEC led that movement and earned a reputation the rest of the CFB world wants to scoff at, but... it happened. 

What I'm saying (or trying to) is the game is measurably- tangibly- RIGHT THERE WE CAN POINT TO IT- changing again in a way that is dominating and the rich get richer with an ability to recruit, develop, scheme, coach and win with- that will take those not privileged (aka the rest of the FBS CFB world pulling from the 'pile of material') a few years to catch up to... and they will... but only after HS coaches move that direction to.  The only good news?  this time it's not cornered in one conference- it's moved across borders. 

the transfer portal further complicates this.  

as far as a perceived attack or a prop of one team over another, that isn't at all where i was going... Texas is on the bubble this year and they're in the hunt for making this transition if they already haven't LSU is a parallel... I'd say Auburn and UGA are too...  OU, Bama, Clemson, tOSU- they're playing in this 'model' NOW.  They have the edge.. teams not adopted or adopting, are going to lose ground....   

CWSooner

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 6045
  • Liked:
Re: The Big SEC, or the SEC 12... hmmm.
« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2019, 12:11:45 AM »
Interesting discussion, Drew.  Really interesting.  The analysis of high-scoring games, low-scoring games, and blowouts merits further investigation, I think.

I'd add this, that Miami in the 1980s was a pioneer in the shut-down defense field.  Under Jimmy Johnson, they put their best athletes on defense and ran well-constructed passing offenses that were "good enough."

OU--with some of its most talented teams ever--went 33-3 from 1985 through 1987.  The three losses were to Miami.  OU--coming out of the "run first, second, and third" Big 8--had some trouble stopping Miami's offense.  But what they really had trouble doing was moving the ball with the wishbone offense against Miami's big, fast defenders.

Miami won 27-14 in 1985, 28-16 in 1986, and 20-14 in the 1987 MNC game.  Some OU guys who played in all those games said they finally had Miami figured out by the end of the third one, and wished that they could play another quarter or two.  But that might just be wishful thinking--who knows?

The AP national championships of those three years are interesting: 1985, #3 OU beat #1 Penn State to win the AP MNC; 1986, #2 Penn State beat #1 Miami 14-10 to win the AP MNC; 1987, #2 Miami beat #1 OU for the AP MNC.
Play Like a Champion Today

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71146
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: The Big SEC, or the SEC 12... hmmm.
« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2019, 08:35:36 AM »
I wonder how much knowledge of recruiting rankings influences our notions about all of this?

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71146
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: The Big SEC, or the SEC 12... hmmm.
« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2019, 10:12:36 AM »
I personally would have Ohio State at Number 1 right now.  They passed the eye test in flying.

The Bama D has been a bit suspect.  They and Clemson may have "issues" that have shown up to date.  UGA had to work to get past ND.  Auburn has a couple nice wins, but A&M may not be that good.  OU looks threatening to me, able to outscore folks for a change.  To me, the only team that has not shown an indication of some weakness if OSU.

Mobile QBs are tough to defend, and those who can throw dimes are tougher.

BrownCounty

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3677
  • Liked:
Re: The Big SEC, or the SEC 12... hmmm.
« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2019, 11:28:43 AM »
I personally would have Ohio State at Number 1 right now.  They passed the eye test in flying.

All these no schedule teams are killing this "eye test".  Nebbie has been the toughest thing on the OSU schedule, and we all knew how that would play out.  Frost is no answer in Lincoln.

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 17619
  • Liked:
Re: The Big SEC, or the SEC 12... hmmm.
« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2019, 12:05:40 PM »
i'm watching them execute, that's how.  they are executing complex plays with certainty.  I've watched Texas flounder several times, and it wasn't their competition, it was them.  I hope you see the difference. 

if it means anything, this is the measure at this point in the season.  sure there are some games where the opponent was beat down or the team in question was beat down.  i don't have to look past my Vols to find that.  it's my opinion, and i don't expect it to be adopted, that the biggest opponent a team faces on the field is NOT the other team, but themselves.  If they can get out of their own way they usually win.  it's pretty much that simple in just about every game.  it's the opponents goal to take a team out of their comfort zone or to disrupt enough the team can't find it's rhythm or 'groove'.

some teams, ala Bama, OU, and tOSU, haven't been pushed by an opponent.. true story.. but the 'eye' test which is watching execution on both sides of the ball tells me both tOSU and OU are for real.  Texas has been pushed- twice.  They were taken out of their comfort zones twice, once ending in loss.  you can think i'm being negative if you want, but i'm not... what i would suggest instead is that team has margin for improvement and there is a good chance they haven't peaked yet. 

OU, on the other hand really can't peak any more than they have- they are clicking... now it's a matter of sustaining, and it's obviously a matter of seeing if they encounter someone capable of taking them out of their groove.  the problem with OU's schedule, insofar as their opponents should be concerned, is they may solidify that 'rhythm' into a groove almost impossible to break- which means you've got to really beat them down 'cause you ain't finessing a win out of the game.

it's my observation that one team not capable of breaking the other's groove ends up in high scoring affairs- where when both teams are disrupted it's a low scoring event... and when one team, although just as good as the other most the time gets blindsided by some disruptive force either planned or discovered during the game ends up with a blowout that ought not to have been such... ND found a way to disrupt UGA and why i can't give UGA the appreciation right now everyone else seems to have given.  LSU found a way to disrupt Texas.. Texas disrupted oSu... nobody has broken bama's stride (not even bama), nobody has broken tOSU's stride (even tOSU), Wiscy disrupted the hell out of UM's stride, but couldn't get cleanly out of their own way with NW.  They almost beat themselves (not really, but it shouldn't have been as close as they allowed).  UF, as another example, have been lucky- sloppy ball and broken all over, but still winning.  Auburn disrupted the shit out of aTm, but so did Clemson.  Oregon pushed Auburn into throwing down- but that was sans Schwartz- they are a completely different animal with that dimension.

all of that said- and i don't have a dog in the fight and could care less who wins at this point (my boys are aiming for somewhere around 2028 i think.. er, something like that... if i'm lucky..), what i'm remarking isn't about 'who is better and how the CFP will happen' which would be a thread played over and over in every forum in the land- what i'm saying is the fashion- the style- these mentioned teams play are interchangeable.  you could dress out tOSU in OU's garb, and hardly anyone would notice.  Same with Bama and Clemson.. or any combination... they are playing something 'new', (not really but...), they are playing in a bubble that is obviously the dominating 'type' of game we're going to see a LOT of teams adopting.

the title of the thread beckons to a thought i had after Dr.Osborne took both the SEC's better teams to the woodshed with his option- UF and UT.. and those teams responded, and the era that came next was shut down aggressive D's- the components of D's changed where the prototypical players for positions changed- RC Slocum and Joe Lee Dunn both played roles... LB's trimmed down and were expected to cover more- DL's picked up speed and started shifting more.  OLB's/DE's began using more flats coverage.. it was answered with spreads and spread options... the game changed in a notable and measurable- maybe 'tangible' is a better term, way.  It was something that could be pointed out- THAT changed. THIS changed. THIS is working more against THAT and is ALSO better than what was before against THAT... the SEC led that movement and earned a reputation the rest of the CFB world wants to scoff at, but... it happened.

What I'm saying (or trying to) is the game is measurably- tangibly- RIGHT THERE WE CAN POINT TO IT- changing again in a way that is dominating and the rich get richer with an ability to recruit, develop, scheme, coach and win with- that will take those not privileged (aka the rest of the FBS CFB world pulling from the 'pile of material') a few years to catch up to... and they will... but only after HS coaches move that direction to.  The only good news?  this time it's not cornered in one conference- it's moved across borders.

the transfer portal further complicates this. 

as far as a perceived attack or a prop of one team over another, that isn't at all where i was going... Texas is on the bubble this year and they're in the hunt for making this transition if they already haven't LSU is a parallel... I'd say Auburn and UGA are too...  OU, Bama, Clemson, tOSU- they're playing in this 'model' NOW.  They have the edge.. teams not adopted or adopting, are going to lose ground.... 

Your condescending tone here is not aiding your argument.  I didn't read anything past your first paragraph.  Executing against garbage, means garbage. 

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71146
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: The Big SEC, or the SEC 12... hmmm.
« Reply #12 on: September 30, 2019, 12:11:11 PM »
OSU has looked very solid on both sides of the ball against suspect opponents, but some other teams have at times looked a bit soft against suspect opponents.

I thought Nebraska would be more of a test, so I'm influenced by that.

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 17619
  • Liked:
Re: The Big SEC, or the SEC 12... hmmm.
« Reply #13 on: September 30, 2019, 12:57:38 PM »
I've only seen tOSU in their game against Michigan, well about half of that anyway, and they looked very good.  Not sure how much of that was them, and how much was just Michigan being pretty much hopeless against them for the past couple of decades.


 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.