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Topic: FiveThirtyEight College Football Predictor

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CWSooner

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FiveThirtyEight College Football Predictor
« on: October 21, 2021, 01:39:13 PM »
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Thumper

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Re: FiveThirtyEight College Football Predictor
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2021, 09:39:12 AM »
Pretty cool.  It looks like ISU is the key factor in the Big 12.  If they beat OSU Saturday, OU's chances of championships take a big hit.

FearlessF

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Re: FiveThirtyEight College Football Predictor
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2021, 09:59:47 AM »
and the Cyclones relish that role
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Thumper

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Re: FiveThirtyEight College Football Predictor
« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2021, 10:29:32 AM »
Yeah.  Last week Herbie pointed ISU out and said they were going to make someone in the B12 very sad.  A win over OSU, OU or both could cause chaos in the conference.

FearlessF

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Re: FiveThirtyEight College Football Predictor
« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2021, 10:41:11 AM »
it's what they do

upset Texas and OU last season

upset Texas in 2019

upset Okie St and West Virginia in 2018

upset TCU and OU in 2017

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CWSooner

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Re: FiveThirtyEight College Football Predictor
« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2021, 06:30:16 PM »
it's what they do

upset Texas and OU last season

upset Texas in 2019

upset Okie St and West Virginia in 2018

upset TCU and OU in 2017
Going into last year's CCG, OU was 2-2 in the last four meetings with ISU.
Before the 2017 loss, OU had won 18 straight.
ISU won in 1990.
Before that, OU had won 8 in a row.
There was a tie in 1981.
Before that, OU had won 19 in a row.
ISU won in 1960 and 1961, Bud's worst two seasons in Norman.
Before that, OU won 23 in a row.
There was a tie in 1936.
Before that, OU won 4 in a row.
OU and ISU split 4 games from 1928 to 1931.
The overall record is 77-7-2.  But I worry about the ISU game every year.  The Clones can make you play their type of football and beat you at it.
Some similarities between the early days of the series and how things are now.
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CWSooner

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Re: FiveThirtyEight College Football Predictor
« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2021, 08:36:26 PM »
Pretty cool.  It looks like ISU is the key factor in the Big 12.  If they beat OSU Saturday, OU's chances of championships take a big hit.
I only saw minor hits--like a 1% drop in "Makes Playoff"--when I clicked on oSu to lose tomorrow.
What I find interesting is that ISU is given a 64% chance of winning that game.  I wonder if that's typical for a game in which the home team is favored by 7.
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FearlessF

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Re: FiveThirtyEight College Football Predictor
« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2021, 10:29:17 PM »
crazy
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Cincydawg

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Re: FiveThirtyEight College Football Predictor
« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2021, 06:42:42 AM »
Favored by 7 means the underdog wins about a third of the time.  Favored by 14 means the dog wins about 10% as I recall, both of which "seem" high.  Upsets happen, duh.

And more often than we think generally.  I know this time of year "we" keep thinking all these teams are going to end up undefeated, but "we" also know they won't.  UGA for example has 5 left and probably an 80% chance plus of winning each individually, but when you do the math ...and of course we Dawg fans always expect Florida to play us tougher than anyone would expect, and us to play poorer.

CWSooner

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Re: FiveThirtyEight College Football Predictor
« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2021, 07:27:30 PM »
Well, if oSu's kicker could have put the ball through the uprights just once of his two tries, we might have seen the game in Ames go to OT.  Maybe multiple OTs, a la Illinois and Penn State.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2021, 02:19:51 PM by CWSooner »
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Cincydawg

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Re: FiveThirtyEight College Football Predictor
« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2021, 10:57:52 AM »
We're going to have more upsets of course.  We usually see 1-2-3 undefeated P5 teams at the end of the regular.

The number of undefeated teams by week is pretty predictable, but not which will lose.

FearlessF

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Re: FiveThirtyEight College Football Predictor
« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2021, 04:41:44 PM »
Iowa State vs. Top 10 opponents ⤵️
Prior to 2016: 8-98-2
Under Matt Campbell: 4-4


May be an image of 1 person and text that says 'STATE 淡 *uscellular MATT CAMPBELL-COACHED TEAM HAS CLAIMED FOUR OF ISU'S 12 ALL-TIME WINS OVER TOP 10 TEAMS'
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CWSooner

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Re: FiveThirtyEight College Football Predictor
« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2021, 04:49:27 PM »
Would Husker Nation like to see Matt Campbell in Lincoln if Frost doesn't get the program turned around?
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FearlessF

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Re: FiveThirtyEight College Football Predictor
« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2021, 05:17:15 PM »
many would

I'm not so sure he'd be a better fit than Frost

only one way to know for sure
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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