~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

[medinabuckeye1]

There are unintended consequences with anything. Coaches are smart. They'll find ways to expose holes in any rule set.

Ok coach, what is your solution?  
I don't mean that to be snarky, I mean that as a serious question.  The problem I see with dude's suggestion is that, as @ELA  mentioned, the ends of a lot more BB games would become very boring.  
Under dude's suggestion a non-shooting foul would result in one FT and the fouled team keeping the ball.  Ok, lets work through ELA's example:

• Team A has an eight point lead (lets say 78-70) and the ball with 2:00 (amended from ELA's 2:30).  

Fouling doesn't help because it doesn't get you the ball back and (presumably) actually makes your situation worse because it resets the shot-clock.  So start at Team-A, 78:  Team-B, 70, Team-A's ball with 2:30 to go and 30 seconds on the shot clock:

• Assuming Team-B is unable to force a turnover and Team-A misses their shot, Team-B gets the ball with about 1:30 to go.  
• Assume that Team-B races down the court and jacks up a three that goes in in just 10 seconds it is now 78-73 with 1:20 to go.  
• Assuming Team-B is unable to force a turnover and Team-A misses their shot, Team-B gets the ball with about 0:50 to go.  
• Assume that Team-B races down the court and jacks up a three that goes in in just 10 seconds it is now 78-76 with 0:40 to go.
• Assuming Team-B is unable to force a turnover and Team-A misses their shot, Team-B gets the ball with about 0:10 to go.  
• Team-B can win with a three or go to OT with a bucket in the last 0:10.  

In order for Team-B to win they have to go 3-3 on highly unlikely quick and mostly long-range shots AND Team-A has to go 0-3 on their much more deliberate shots.  An eight point lead with 2:00 (or even ELA's 2:30) to go would be effectively impossible to overcome.  

Look, I get that an eight point lead with 2:00 or 2:30 to go is already difficult to overcome but the ending is still exciting because it isn't impossible.  Under the current rules if Team-A doesn't make their FT's then Team-B can catch up.  Even if Team-A does make their FT's, Team-B can catch up with three point shots.  It is exciting because Team-B is still in the game.  

Consider @Kris61 's example that you were more directly responding to:

• Team-A has 72 and the ball
• Team-B has 70
• 0:20 to go
• Shot clock turned off

The game is basically over.  The only way for Team-B to win is to force a turnover.  Otherwise they are done, Team-A can just dribble out the last 20 seconds and go home.  If Team-B fouls it does nothing except give Team-A the opportunity to push their lead to three points.  

[medinabuckeye1]

So a team that beat Xavier, Gonzaga, Louisville, Clemson, Miami, Florida Missouri and UNC isn’t very good? I’d say they’ve been inconsistent, but it doesn’t seem to fit your narrative. 3 of those teams are top 11 of the RPI and they also played a tight game with virginia.
No game in the final four is a freebie. Did you know Loyola was 22 in the RPi before the tourney started? Statistics seem to contradict quite a bit of your post and I know you like statistics.

That same FSU team that beat that group also lost to OkSU, Dook, Miami, Louisville, Boston College, Wake Forest, Virginia, Notre Dame, NCST, Clemson, and Louisville again.  Fine, inconsistent.  I still agree with ELA, the quality of BB on the left side of the bracket was a LOT worse this past weekend and will be a LOT worse this Saturday then the quality of BB on the Right side of the bracket.  
No, I didn't know Loyola was #22 in the RPI before the tournament started but I can tell you that Sagrin has them at #56 as of yesterday (Mon, Mar 26) which is AFTER accounting for their four NCAA wins over KSU, Nevada, Tennessee, and Miami.  FWIW, per Sagrin Michigan's other NCAA opponents have been:

• #99 Montana
• #22 Houston
• #25 aTm
• #21 FSU

Playing a team that Sagrin has ranked #56 even AFTER they won four NCAA games to get to the Final Four is absolutely the definition of getting a freebie. 

[medinabuckeye1]

I want to clarify something here because I don't want there to be confusion on this point:  As @ELA  said earlier, I don't want a critique of Michigan's path to be confused with a critique of Michigan, this isn't.  At the end of the day all a team can do is win the games against the teams on the other side of the court.  Some teams get unlucky.  @bwarbiany has referenced Purdue's bad luck in getting high-end S16 opponents year-after-year and @Kris61 mentioned the same thing in reference to his Mountaineers.  Other teams get lucky.  Even if you get lucky though, you still have to actually win the games or else it doesn't matter.  

I wish my team had done exactly that.  Ohio State's path to the CG would only have been marginally more difficult than Michigan's.  It would have been:

• #83 SDSt (compared to #99 Montana)
• #12 Gonzaga (compared to #22 Houston for Michigan) - and note that Gonzaga would be somewhat lower had tOSU defeated them.  
• #21 FSU (compared to #25 aTm for Michigan) - as with Gonzaga, this would be somewhat lower had tOSU defeated them one round earlier than they actually lost.  
• #9 Michigan (compared to #21 FSU for Michigan) - same note as above.  
• #56 Loyola-Chicago (same hypothetical opponent as Michigan)

I have long felt that the primary importance of getting a high seed is so that you can afford an off game early.  Ohio State (and even moreso Michigan) got that in the first round.  I still maintain that Michigan did not play well in the second round.  To their credit though, they earned a high enough seed that even though they played the highest possible seed (ie, no upset) in the second round, they still didn't have to play all that well to win.  Ohio State failed to do that.  They only earned a #5 seed so they had to play a better team in the second round and they lost.  

[Anonymous Coward]

Rules like this are never enacted, but the system would be better even if, beginning at 2:00 in regulation, refs called non-shooting fouls in an alternating fashion:

Foul 1 by team A: team B gets one FT and keeps possession of the ball
Foul 2 by team A: team B gets as many shots as the bonus requires and possession follows the classic protocol
(...) Repeat pattern as necessary.

That's a compromise that will never happen but could solve the dilemma. The biggest problem I have with it is how inelegant it is. But basketball hasn't rejected the "possession arrow," so I guess that's not a deal-breaker after all.

[SuperMario]

Michigan won the B1G tourney and was the hottest team in the big ten and got a terrible draw, being sent out west while MSU was able to stay home in Detroit. It’s funny in hindsight that everyone thinks Michigan made out, when the narrative was very different two weeks ago.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I simply don’t understand the opinion that Michigan v FSU & Loyola v K State was not good basketball and Michigan. V Loyola won’t be great basketball either. I’ve really enjoye the type of game Loyola plays. It’s far from the sloppy, but athletic style that many “high ranking” rosters with a lot of one and fines play. Fundamentals matter for my viewing pleasure so I’m excited for two very different games this weekend.

Based on the feedback, whoever wins between Michigan and Loyola should walk right off the court and congratulate Nova or Kansas as National champs.

[HailHailMSP]

Rarely hear of Sagarin cited for college basketball these days. Maybe it’s just me. RPI, KenPom frequently are brought up. Massey to some extent too.

In those Loyola is 22,30, and 8 respectively. So Sagarin is a major outlier.

Michigan certainly hasn’t faced murderers row this year. But by most computer metrics Houston was a 4/5 seed that was underseeded. The Houston game was ugly in style, but Michigan beat a top notch team. FSU wasn’t a world class opponent, especially for the Elite Eight. But they were a unique matchup problem type team, and Michigan advanced with supreme domination on one end of the court. .7PPP on defense was lower by some margin than any FSU opponent all year. 

[847badgerfan]

Michigan won the B1G tourney and was the hottest team in the big ten and got a terrible draw, being sent out west while MSU was able to stay home in Detroit. It’s funny in hindsight that everyone thinks Michigan made out, when the narrative was very different two weeks ago.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I simply don’t understand the opinion that Michigan v FSU & Loyola v K State was not good basketball and Michigan. V Loyola won’t be great basketball either. I’ve really enjoye the type of game Loyola plays. It’s far from the sloppy, but athletic style that many “high ranking” rosters with a lot of one and fines play. Fundamentals matter for my viewing pleasure so I’m excited for two very different games this weekend.

Based on the feedback, whoever wins between Michigan and Loyola should walk right off the court and congratulate Nova or Kansas as National champs.

Reading my mind?

[Kris61]

This has been probably been discussed on here before but what would everyone think about a rule change that eliminated fouling out?   Every foul beyond a player’s fifth would result in an automatic 3 FT for the opposition (4 if it occurred on a 3 pointer).  I just hate seeing players having to sit.

You are still punishing for too much hacking but it’s a different consequence.  The coach still has a strategic decision to make.  Do you keep a guy out there with 5 fouls knowing a whistle could cost you 3 points?  Just wondering. I have a couple of buddies I ran it by who hated it.

Can I be a douche and bump my own post?  Lol.  I really did want to get some feedback on this.  I think AC one upped me with a pretty off the wall suggestion.

[847badgerfan]

I'm not going to pretend that I have answers for the last two minutes. My responses have been in jest, mostly because I despise the last two minutes of most games. It sucks as a fan and it sucks for the players.

It also sucks that in the case of the Loyola/KSU game, KSU made the game last probably 15 minutes longer than it should have, given the deficit. That caused a delay to the start of the next game (M/FSU), which was already on late.


And M fans need to not complain about being sent West. That is reserved for UW fans. See 2014 and 2015 for reference.

[Kris61]

Rules like this are never enacted, but the system would be better even if, beginning at 2:00 in regulation, refs called non-shooting fouls in an alternating fashion:

Foul 1 by team A: team B gets one FT and keeps possession of the ball
Foul 2 by team A: team B gets as many shots as the bonus requires and possession follows the classic protocol
(...) Repeat pattern as necessary.

That's a compromise that will never happen but could solve the dilemma. The biggest problem I have with it is how inelegant it is. But basketball hasn't rejected the "possession arrow," so I guess that's not a deal-breaker after all.

All that does is exacerabate the end of game situation you are complaining about.  Now you are forcing the team that is behind to foul twice as much in order to get the ball back.

[medinabuckeye1]

Michigan won the B1G tourney and was the hottest team in the big ten and got a terrible draw, being sent out west while MSU was able to stay home in Detroit. It’s funny in hindsight that everyone thinks Michigan made out, when the narrative was very different two weeks ago.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I simply don’t understand the opinion that Michigan v FSU & Loyola v K State was not good basketball and Michigan. V Loyola won’t be great basketball either. I’ve really enjoye the type of game Loyola plays. It’s far from the sloppy, but athletic style that many “high ranking” rosters with a lot of one and fines play. Fundamentals matter for my viewing pleasure so I’m excited for two very different games this weekend.

Based on the feedback, whoever wins between Michigan and Loyola should walk right off the court and congratulate Nova or Kansas as National champs.

• I didn't think that Michigan got a terrible draw.  To the extent that this is directed at me, it is inapplicable.  There were, as usual, too many Western sites and consequently the 3-4-5 seeds mostly got shipped out west, it happens.  
• I didn't say and I don't think that @ELA said that M/FSU and Loyola/KSU were complete crap basketball or, as you put it, "not good basketball".  It was good, but it wasn't great and it wasn't at the level of the right hand side of the bracket.  
• No, Michigan shouldn't "walk right off the court and congratulate the Villanova/Kansas winner.  First off, Michigan is going to win.  Loyola-Chicago has defeated a #6 by two, a #3 by one, a #7 by one, and a #9 by 16.  Like Michigan, the Ramblers have beaten the teams on the other end of the court, but also like Michigan, they have gotten very lucky.  They ducked the #1 (first ever #16 over #1 upset) and the #2 (lost to #7), and the #4 (lost to #13), and the #5 (lost to #9).  The difference between the Ramblers and the Wolverines is that while the Ramblers are about to play the best opponent they have ever seen, the Wolverines are about to play their easiest opponent since Montana in the first round.  After Michigan dispenses with the Ramblers they will get either Nova or Kansas in the NCG.  I do believe that both the Wildcats and Jayhawks are better than the Wolverines but it isn't by anywhere near the margin by which all three of them are better than the Ramblers.  Ie, I expect the Nova/Kansas winner to be favored over the Wolverines in the CG but I do not expect the Wildcats or Jayhawks to be a prohibitive favorite.  

[847badgerfan]

Can I be a douche and bump my own post?  Lol.  I really did want to get some feedback on this.  I think AC one upped me with a pretty off the wall suggestion.

[SuperMario]

MB - you know I have a tremendous amount of respect for your opinion, but you’re blinded by seedings and rankings right now as opposed to the quality of the basketball a team is playing. Loyola has played great basketball and I’m not confident Michigan can take them down.

[Brutus Buckeye]

I like that players foul out. If a coach takes the risk of fouling as a strategy and uses his best players to do so, then so be it.

You don't use the starters. You.... 
"Send in the goons."