~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

[bayareabadger]

Wisconsin didn't have time to go for 2 there, but Maryland almost bailed him out by not letting him have it

Yeah, this UW team is WAY too young for its own good. Davison will be awesome, but have to know better.
I wonder if the emphasis on quick 2s and extending the game sometimes is too much. If you need a 3, sometimes just get the damn 3.

[ELA]

Yeah, this UW team is WAY too young for its own good. Davison will be awesome, but have to know better.
I wonder if the emphasis on quick 2s and extending the game sometimes is too much. If you need a 3, sometimes just get the damn 3.

Yeah, usually college kids mess it up the other way, launching ill advised threes way too early.

[medinabuckeye1]

Ohio State continued this weekend's trend of the B1G's better teams struggling with, but ultimately beating lesser opponents.

More of the same in the Maryland/Wisconsin game.
I find it odd that we had so many close calls this weekend and no upsets.

[medinabuckeye1]

In Lunardi's latest Bracketology PU, MSU, and tOSU are still 1, 2, and 4 seeds respectively.  Michigan is up to a 7-seed.  Nebraska is now among the "First Four Out", and Maryland is back among the "Next Four Out".  

Our bubble and bubble-ish teams have some interesting games this week:

• Michigan is at Northwestern.  The Wolverines haven't looked too hot of late and a road win here would really help.  
• Nebraska is at Minnesota.  After that they finish up with four home games an only lowly Illinois on the road.  If they can win in Minneapolis they have a very good chance to finish the regular season on a nine game winning streak.  That would almost certainly lock them in despite their shortage of quality wins.  
• Maryland is at Penn State.  The Terps are 5-7 and can ill afford any loss at this point.  
• Penn State hosts Maryland.  The Nittany Lions are a game better in the B1G, but their OOC isn't as good as Maryland's so they need this game as much or more than the Terps do.  
• Northwestern hosts Michigan.  The Wildcats have won three of four and were reasonably competitive in Ann Arbor recently.  If they are going to get themselves onto the bubble they likely need this game.  
• Indiana is at Rutgers tonight and hosts Minnesota on Friday.  At 5-7 and with some dreadfully bad OOC losses they probably need to win out to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid so every game is critical for them.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Nobody would have predicted this in the pre-season, but Wednesday's game in West Lafayette between the Boilermakers and Buckeyes is the game of the year in the B1G.  I suppose an argument could be made for Saturday's PU/MSU game in East Lansing but if the Boilermakers win on Wednesday they'll be at least two games ahead of everybody which would relegate the Spartans to not much more than a spoiler role attempting to spoil Purdue's perfect B1G regular season.  If the Buckeyes manage to pull off the upset in West Lafayette, however, then the Spartans will be playing to potentially create a 3-way tie atop the B1G standings.  

Interesting that this game is on BTN.  

Frankly, I'd be shocked if the Buckeyes pulled off the upset.  I think that Purdue is the better team and the game is on their floor so I just don't see it.  That said, both teams looked like crap this weekend.  Purdue hasn't looked great since running Iowa off the court in Iowa City a few weeks ago but they've managed to keep winning.  The Buckeyes haven't looked good lately either.  They barely held off Illinois at home on Sunday, ran out to a 15 point lead early against Indiana then played even with the Hoosiers at home for 30 minutes last week, lost to PSU at home prior to that, and barely beat Nebraska at home prior to that.  

It seems like both teams might be due for a good night but I think the only way the Buckeyes win is if they have that good night and Purdue continues in their funk.  If both teams play well, Purdue wins a good game.  If both teams play poorly, Purdue wins a crappy game.  If Purdue plays well and Ohio State does not, it will get ugly.  If Ohio State plays well and Purdue does not, upset.  That is how I see it anyway.  

[JerseyTerrapin]

"but their OOC isn't as good as Maryland's"

What are phrases I didn't expect to hear in 2018, Alex. 

[medinabuckeye1]

"but their OOC isn't as good as Maryland's"

What are phrases I didn't expect to hear in 2018, Alex.

FWIW, I meant in terms of record not SoS.  According to the worldwide leader Maryland's non-conf SoS ranks #197 but Indiana's is almost as bad at #193.  The difference, and the reason that I said Indiana's wasn't as good is that IU went 7-5 while Maryland went 11-2.  Furthermore, Maryland's OOC losses were both to decent teams and not at home (St. Bonaventure-neutral, @Cuse).  Indiana's OOC losses included ISU and FtWayne both at home.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Interesting that this game is on BTN.  

Annoying that this game is on BTN. A game this big should have been somehow pulled back up onto ESPN.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Big week for Purdue.

In games against IU, Maryland, and Rutgers, Purdue has looked increasingly mortal. Offensively Purdue has been unable to keep up its red-hot 3pt shooting, and defensively, teams are learning that the Boilers' weakness is getting the bigs out of the paint. 

Now, we're unsure entirely of what has caused the malaise seen by the team. We know that PJ Thompson battled an illness, causing him to leave one game to go puke in the locker room. We know Vincent Edwards has battled the flu as well, and his last two games have shown it. On top of that, Rutgers was a prototypical "trap game", with the team perhaps caught looking ahead to this week. Did the team play down to its opponent? This sort of a senior-dominated squad would IMHO be less prone to that than a team full of youngsters. Is the team just getting rattled by the pressure of being EXPECTED to win, and keep winning? Maybe they're getting into their own heads?

So questions going into the week:

• Are the Boilermakers healthy? The flu has been horrific this year, and they need to be at full strength.
• Have other teams figured out how to attack this defense? It sure looks like it, as the Purdue defense has dropped from top-5 AdjD on Kenpom to 16th in 3 games.
• Was this just a team going through a mid-season lull, and who will come out with fire on Wednesday and Saturday, or is this a team with tired legs faltering under the pressure of being "the hunted" in every game?

This is the toughest week of the season, and the difference between 2-0, 1-1, and 0-2 probably carries a LOT of weight not only for Purdue's chance to win their 24th B1G championship, but for their seed line in March. Purdue is fighting for a 1 seed, but 0-2 might leave them with work to do in NY to retain that 1.

[grillrat]

 We know Vincent Edwards has battled the flu as well, and his last two games have shown it. 

Edwards was 0-13 in the past three games from 3-pt land (0-6 against IU, 0-3 against Maryland, and 0-4 against Rutgers).  If he shoots his typical 40 to 50%, the IU game goes from a 74-67 grind to a 80-67 blowout.  The Maryland game goes from 75-67 to an 78-67 victory, and the Rutgers game goes from 78-76 to a more comfortable 84-76.  They were fairly open shots too, from what I recall.  I suspect his shot will improve once he is back to top condition.  Hopefully he gets there by Wednesday.
Hoping that we didn't peak a month early.

[medinabuckeye1]

I agree completely.  I said upthread that I think it is unlikely that the Buckeyes will pull the upset but I want to flesh out the possibility that you mentioned that Purdue could go 0-2 this week:
Assuming that Ohio State and Michigan State each with their other game this week (MSU is at Iowa, tOSU hosts the Hawkeyes) then after the weekend the top of the B1G standings would look like this:

• 13-1/22-5 Ohio State
• 12-2/24-3 Michigan State
• 12-2/23-4 Purdue

One problem that would create for Purdue vis-a-vis the #1 seed is that I think the weakness of the conference overall this year makes it extremely unlikely that the B1G would get two #1 seeds.  After that hypothetical week all three teams would be in the mix for a #1 seed but, as I just stated, I would assume that the B1G can't get more than one so essentially the three teams would be playing for (at most) one spot.  

As I said, I don't think that is going to happen (besides, I think the Buckeyes will also lose in Ann Arbor) but in the event that the Buckeyes, Spartans, and Boilermakers all finish 16-2 or better I think that there is a pretty good chance that prize for winning the BTT at MSG in NYC will be a #1 seed and everybody else will fall below that.  

[grillrat]

Kinda depends.  You can't look at that situation in a vacuum.

If Purdue wins the OSU game and loses a close game to MSU on Saturday, I could see MSU and Purdue switching places in the polls.  From there, if Purdue and MSU win out until the BTT championship game, it might very well depend upon Xavier and Cincinnati.  I kinda suspect that Kansas and Duke have another loss or two in them.  If Xavier and Cincinnati drop a game or two also during that time period, it's very possible that both MSU and Purdue could end up with 1 seeds.

I'd have to look it up to be sure, but I think I saw a stat that said that in the last three weeks, Villanova, Virginia, and Purdue are 18-0 and the rest of the top 10 (teams 4 through 10) are 21-19.  Point being, there is still a lot of volatility out there.

[medinabuckeye1]

Kinda depends.  You can't look at that situation in a vacuum.

If Purdue wins the OSU game and loses a close game to MSU on Saturday, I could see MSU and Purdue switching places in the polls.  From there, if Purdue and MSU win out until the BTT championship game, it might very well depend upon Xavier and Cincinnati.  I kinda suspect that Kansas and Duke have another loss or two in them.  If Xavier and Cincinnati drop a game or two also during that time period, it's very possible that both MSU and Purdue could end up with 1 seeds.

I'd have to look it up to be sure, but I think I saw a stat that said that in the last three weeks, Villanova, Virginia, and Purdue are 18-0 and the rest of the top 10 (teams 4 through 10) are 21-19.  Point being, there is still a lot of volatility out there.

Well I did say "extremely unlikely", not "impossible".  I did that because I get what you are saying and I do recognize that it is possible.  I just think that the Committee would be understandably hesitant to give half of the #1 seeds to teams from a conference that frankly isn't very good this year.  I think, therefore, that in order for that to happen the committee's alternatives are going to have to be pretty weak by comparison.  Ie, if it is close between a second B1G team and some other team, I think the other team will get it.  

[ELA]

I just think that the Committee would be understandably hesitant to give half of the #1 seeds to teams from a conference that frankly isn't very good this year.

The CFP committee did it.
Just because the conference sucked doesn't mean the top couple do.  I would think here they'd be more likely to, simply because the difference in consequences between #4 and #5 is a hell of a lot less than it is in football.
I actually think the MSU basketball/Alabama football comparison as far as committee goes is pretty similar.  Neither is likely to win a conference title.  Both pass the eye test with flying colors at their best, but both wound up with a schedule which (not for lack of scheduling) wound up less impressive due to FSU football and ND/UConn basketball not being what they typically are.  So you wind up with an underwhelming resume due to lack of great opponents.  Both were not aided by conference scheduling.  Alabama had Tennessee and Vandy as their crossover games 9worst two teams in the East), and MSU wound up with single plays against Purdue, OSU, UM and Nebraska.