Starting to think about the bubble:
Barring collapse the top three (PU, tOSU, and MSU) will obviously be in. Similarly, barring a miracle the bottom four (MN, RU, IA, IL) will not be playing NCAA Tournament ball this year. That leaves seven B1G where things could go either way:
7-4 Nebraska: The blessing and curse for the Cornhuskers is that they have a surprisingly weak B1G schedule. That is a blessing because they should finish with a pretty strong (looking) league record but it is a curse because their only quality win in conference was over the Wolverines (at home) and they have no remaining chances against likely tournament teams. Nebraska travels to Madison tonight then has more than a week off before heading to Minneapolis next Tuesday. We project them to lose both of those road games. After that they finish with four of five at home and the lone road game is at lowly Illinois so we project them to win their last five and finish 12-6. I don't think 12-6 would be enough for the Cornhuskers without a quality win (or two) in NYC so I think they need to win at least one of their next two.
6-4 Michigan: The Wolverines are probably in better shape than it would at first appear. We project them to go 4-4 in their last eight to finish 10-8 which is a weak record in the B1G this year. The good news for Michigan is that of the four projected losses (@NU, @UW, @PSU, @UMD) I think that three are close to toss-ups. Additionally, of the four projected wins (vsNU, vsMN, vsIA, vstOSU) I believe that the Wolverines do not have more than a token chance of losing in three of those four games. If the Wolverines do finish 10-8 I believe that they will get to the BTT at MSG in NYC with a lot of work to do but it is reasonably likely that they will finish a couple games better than that and probably safely locked into the NCAA before the games in NYC begin.
5-5 Penn State: The Nittany Lions rejuvenated their tournament hopes with their win in Columbus last week but they clearly still have a long way to go. They have some dreadful losses that they will have to make up for. We project them to go 5-3 down the stretch to finish 10-8 but that clearly will not be enough. The problem is that the three projected losses are @MSU (Wednesday), @Purdue, and @ Nebraska. Of the three, only Nebraska seems likely to flip. Meanwhile they have two projected wins that could easily flip to losses (vstOSU, vM). At a minimum, I think they need to win all of the projected wins and knock off the Cornhuskers in Lincoln. That is a tall order.
5-5 Indiana: We project the Hoosiers do go 2-6 down the stretch and finish 7-11 in the B1G. Even flipping that to 6-2 to finish 11-7 might not be enough so the Hoosiers are rapidly running out of time. Their next two are at Ohio State (Tuesday) and vsMSU (Saturday). IMHO, if they don't win one of those two you can stick a fork in them.
4-5 Northwestern: We project the Wildcats to go 3-6 down the stretch and finish 7-11 in the B1G. They probably need to finish 7-2 to have a chance so the Wildcats are also rapidly running out of time. Their next two are at Michigan (tonight) and at Wisconsin (Thursday). IMHO, if they don't win one of those two you can stick a fork in them.
4-6 Maryland: We project the Terrapins to go 4-4 down the stretch and finish 8-10 in the B1G. The good news is that three of the projected losses (@PSU, @UNL, @NU) seem like winnable games. The bad news is that, at a minimum, they probably need to win all of those and the four projected wins. That would get them to 11-7 which probably isn't in, but it likely is at least on the bubble. That means that if they lose at Purdue on Wednesday they likely need to win out after that.
3-6 Wisconsin: The Badgers have finished in the top-4 in the B1G a staggering 16 years in a row. Additionally, they have appeared in the last 19 straight NCAA Tournaments. Both of those streaks are on life support. They would likely need to win out to finish in the top-4 of the B1G. The good news is that six of the Badgers' last nine games are at home. Further good news is that two of the three remaining road games (@IL, @NU) appear to be winnable. The bad news is that three of the home games (vsM, vsPU, vMSU) look to be likely losses. We project the Badgers to go 4-5 down the stretch and finish 7-11 in the B1G. They probably need to be near-perfect to get to NYC on the bubble. Their next two are home games against Nebraska (tonight) and Northwestern (Thursday). IMHO, if they don't win both you can stick a fork in them.
