~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

[bayareabadger]

I didn't say they were the LEAST experienced team.  I just wouldn't call that experienced for anyone but Kentucky or Duke who plan on running out like 3-4 freshmen starters every year.
Purdue is starting 4 seniors.  Ohio State is starting 2 seniors and 2 juniors.  There might be a reason they are the top two teams.  A whole lot of experience on the court in West Lafayette and Columbus.

For fun: by the KenPom experience thing
Purdue 57th
OSU 156th
MSU 277th
Maryland 318th
... Wisconsin 328th 

[847badgerfan]

For fun: by the KenPom experience thing
Purdue 57th
OSU 156th
MSU 277th
Maryland 318th
... Wisconsin 328th

What do make of my thought that Van Vliet and Thomas, and possibly Illikainin, are going to be gone after this season?

[mcwterps1]

For fun: by the KenPom experience thing
Purdue 57th
OSU 156th
MSU 277th
Maryland 318th
... Wisconsin 328th

MSU's experience is packed with talent, together, cohesive. 
I'm sure you'll see a switch in standings next year in a few cases. 

[Entropy]

UNL needs another win over a ranked team to be in the bubble conversation, imo.    Close calls vs KU, Creighton and OSU won't cut it. 

[ELA]

BracketMatrix, which is a composite of several mock brackets has Nebraska as the 14th team out as of Monday.  So yes, work to be done.

Nebraska is in a tough spot.  They had (as medina's numbers point out) easily the easiest Big Ten schedule.  They only had to play MSU, Purdue, OSU and UM once each.  Problem is they only went 1-3 through that.  So they could wind up with a pretty good Big Ten record, but they won't face another ranked team til NYC.  To make matters worse, the 5th best Big Ten team, Maryland, they also only play once.  So the Big Ten schedule makers only gave them 5 games against potential tourney teams.  Also kind of means they almost have to go like 13-5 in Big Ten play to even get in the conversation.

[Entropy]

ELA.. agree.   I know they played a pretty good non conference schedule, but I think this team is NIT bound.   They are athletic, it has been nice to see a UNL basketball team compete.... but, they came together a little too late.  

[FearlessF]

had the Jayhawks and failed to close at the buzzer

[betarhoalphadelta]

I can tell you that if Painter wins COTY there will be a slew of infuriated Ohio State fans who will point out that our football coach never wins COTY due to high expectations and the same should apply in Basketball.  

To some degree, I will agree, hence why I asked just how far Painter has to exceed Holtmann's results in order to get COTY.
That said, if he is the first B1G coach to go undefeated in conference play in 42 years, and first ever to go 18-0 [as earlier schedules had fewer games], I'd say that's still exceeding expectations. 
Undefeated in football is a much lower bar to clear than it is in basketball. 

[ELA]

The Athletic put together a chart of how the Big Ten handled rest days in their scheduling.  Every team plays at least once on only one day rest.  The only teams that are NOT forced to do so multiple times are Purdue and Wisconsin.  On the other end of that, Indiana, Minnesota, Nebraska and Illinois all have to do so four times.

Sorting the schedule by number of 1 day rest games, then 2 day rest games, etc... you get the following as far as most grueling to grueling schedule simply in terms of short turnaround games...

1. Minnesota
2. Nebraska
3. Indiana
4. Illinois
5. Ohio State
6. Maryland
7. Rutgers
8. Michigan State
9. Northwestern
10. Michigan
11. Iowa
12. Penn State
13. Wisconsin
14. Purdue

So if you are looking for more reason it's looking tough for anyone to unseat Purdue at the top, there it is.

Kind of various ways to look at it.  Yes, Purdue and Wisconsin have the fewest games played on 1 days rest (1), and Indiana, Minnesota, Nebraska and Illinois have the most (4).  But it's Iowa and Penn State that have the fewest played on 1 or 2 days rest (8), and Ohio State that has the most (12).  It evens out at 3 or fewer with every team having either 13 or 14.  Then, only Minnesota has multiple breaks of 5+ days.  And Minnesota and Wisconsin are the only schools that get a full week off at any point.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Something about tourney coaching experience.  Of the past 34 National Champions, only 3 were coached by a guy who had never coached past the Sweet 16, and all were in cases where they sort of took over a team, rather than trying to do it with their own team for the first time.  You have Steve Fisher in '89 taking over right before the tourney; Tubby Smith basically being handed a championship team by Rick Pitino in '98 when he left for the NBA; and Kevin Ollie taking over for Calhoun for the '14 UConn champs.

I dunno. "Only 3 national championships for coaches that didn't previously make it past the Sweet 16" sounds like the same sort of backwards analysis as "Well this coach doesn't do well because he's not good at beating ranked teams on the road". 
I don't know enough to quantify it, but it just sounds wrong.
You know why most coaches haven't made it past the Sweet 16? Because they're not coaching teams with enough talent to do so. Teams with enough talent to regularly make the EE, FF, and championship game are occasionally going to win it. Teams without enough talent to do so might make a Cinderella run past the Sweet 16, but then they'll hit a team with a LOT more talent in the next three rounds and falter.
I think the only previous Purdue team in Painter's tenure that had a legitimate shot at a National Championship was that Hummel/Johnson/Moore team with Kramer. That team was on fire, and had climbed to #3 in the nation when Hummel tore his ACL. The team without him gritted their way into the Sweet 16, but they weren't the same without Hummel. The next year might have been it again, since Hummer/Johnson/Moore were all seniors, but then Hummel tore his ACL again during the first practice of the next season. That team likewise made it to the Sweet 16, but they were only 14-4 in conference and ranked #13. That probably should have been an EE team, though, but VCU was on a tear and knocked us out. 
Purdue teams have never been ranked in the top 10 come tournament time. The best seed Purdue has ever had under Painter has been a 3, and that was the 2011-12 team. 
Expectations are that 1- and 2-seed teams "should" make it past the Sweet 16. Expectations are that teams ranked in the top 8 of the polls "should" make it past the Sweet 16. Every team Purdue has taken to the Sweet 16 has been flawed, which is why they haven't been a 1- or 2-seed and haven't been ranked in the top 10. As a Purdue fan, I sincerely wish Painter had overachieved and taken a 3- or 4-seed to the EE in at least one of those years, but it's not like he had the level of talent as a team where it was expected to happen. 
This year is Painter's best team. It's more complete and deeper than even the pre-injury 2010-11 team. This team doesn't appear to be flawed in any particular way I can identify. Will Purdue win it all? Probably not. Only 1 team gets to do that, and a lot of factors [including luck] come into play. But it's unfair to throw out a stat like that without realizing that those sort of stats have context. The context has changed for this Purdue team, because it's a better team than he's ever had.
Your other examples of the three coaches who *had* done it prove my point. Those coaches took over teams that had the talent to be there, so the past experience of their wins wasn't "theirs". So instead of being coaches of strong but not elite teams who rarely had the talent to go beyond, they inherited the talent. How have those coaches done when they didn't have the same level of talent? Probably not as well.

[ELA]

I think you're reading it like Painter is a bad coach who will never get there.  That's not the point.  The point is that navigating 6 games through the NCAA tournament is a difficult feat, and that maybe there is something to getting almost all the way there where you learn what needs to be tweaked.  That it would be the first time in over three decades a coach like Painter won a national title, having never gotten even halfway there before despite being in place for a while.  That maybe he needs to take a Final Four heartbreak before he wins one.

A lot of great coaches have won their first (and/or only) national titles over the past 34 years...John Thompson, Rollie Massimino, Denny Crum, Larry Brown, Tark, Coach K, Nolan Richardson, Rick Pitino, Lute Olsen, Jim Calhoun, Tom Izzo, Gary Williams, Jim Boeheim, Roy Williams, Billy Donovan, Bill Self, John Calipari, Jay Wright.

Not one of them did it the first time they made it past the Sweet 16.

Rollie, Calhoun and Self were the only three that did it on their first trip to the final weekend.

[medinabuckeye1]

To some degree, I will agree, hence why I asked just how far Painter has to exceed Holtmann's results in order to get COTY.
That said, if he is the first B1G coach to go undefeated in conference play in 42 years, and first ever to go 18-0 [as earlier schedules had fewer games], I'd say that's still exceeding expectations.
Undefeated in football is a much lower bar to clear than it is in basketball.

I get that and I think we are on the same page. What do you feel the expectation for Purdue and Ohio State (in # of wins)?
My guess at the answers to that is around 13-14 for PU and around 5-6 for Ohio State.
That means that Ohio State is already 3-4 games over expectations and Purdue can do no better than 4-5 games over expectations. 

[ELA]

If Wisconsin doesn't wake up, they aren't even going to make the NIT.

[FearlessF]

good game in Norman, OK