~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

[ELA]

Have to assume that puts Purdue in the driver's seat.

[medinabuckeye1]

Have to assume that puts Purdue in the driver's seat.

Well, they do travel to E. Lansing. 

[ELA]

Well, they do travel to E. Lansing.

Yeah but they are the only one of the four tourney looking teams who have proven anything on the road.

[medinabuckeye1]

Indiana's win over Penn State was an upset which rearranges the projection but only slightly.  PSU now projects at 10-8, tied with Nebraska for 4th/5th.  It doesn't matter much.  The loserer of that tie would play the 12/13 winner on Thursday of the BTT.  The winner of that tie would play the 5/12/13 winner on Friday.  

Indiana, meanwhile, moves up into a tie with Illinois for 12th/13th and that is completely irrelevant as those two teams play each other on Wednesday in the BTT so the tiebreaker only determines jersey color.  

The bigger issue for our projections is that Indiana is now at +2 and Penn State is now at -2:

• Indiana beat Minnesota on the road on 1/6.  This would be an upset even if we moved the Hoosiers up a tier.  
• Indiana beat Penn State at home on 1/9.  This would not be an upset if we moved the Hoosiers up a tier.  
• Penn State lost to Wisconsin at home on 12/4.  This would be an upset even if we moved the Nittany Lions down a tier.  
• Penn State lost to Indiana on the road on 1/9.  This would not be an upset if we moved the Nittany Lions down a tier.  

I think that we need to either move the Lions down or the Hoosiers up, but I'm not sure which.  

[medinabuckeye1]

I mentioned upthread that Nebraska has a very favorable schedule.  Here is what I mean and how I calculate that:

Team	noAway	noAway	noAway	noAway	noHome	noHome	noHome	noHome	RR-W	RR-L	miss-W	miss-L	Proj-W	Proj-L	RR%	Proj%	Diff
UNL	IU	IOWA	UMD	M	MSU	NU	tOSU	PU	10	16	1	7	9	9	0.385	0.500	0.115
RU	IU	IOWA	NU	UW	UMD	M	MN	PSU	6	20	0	8	6	12	0.231	0.333	0.103
PSU	M	MN	RU	UW	ILL	IU	MSU	PU	15	11	3	5	12	6	0.577	0.667	0.090
ILL	IOWA	UMD	PSU	PU	M	MN	NU	tOSU	6	20	1	7	5	13	0.231	0.278	0.047
MSU	M	UNL	PSU	PU	IOWA	MN	NU	tOSU	24	2	7	1	17	1	0.923	0.944	0.021
Purdue	UNL	NU	tOSU	PSU	ILL	IU	IOWA	MSU	24	2	7	1	17	1	0.923	0.944	0.021
tOSU	MSU	UMD	UNL	ILL	UW	NU	MN	PU	20	6	6	2	14	4	0.769	0.778	0.009
NU	ILL	MSU	UNL	tOSU	IU	IOWA	PU	RU	10	16	3	5	7	11	0.385	0.389	0.004
UW	IU	M	MN	tOSU	IOWA	UMD	PSU	RU	10	16	4	4	6	12	0.385	0.333	(0.051)
IU	UMD	NU	PSU	PU	M	UNL	RU	UW	6	20	3	5	3	15	0.231	0.167	(0.064)
Iowa	MSU	NU	PU	UW	IL	UMD	UNL	RU	6	20	3	5	3	15	0.231	0.167	(0.064)
UMD	IOWA	MN	RU	UW	ILL	IU	UNL	tOSU	15	11	6	2	9	9	0.577	0.500	(0.077)
M	ILL	IU	MN	RU	MSU	UNL	PSU	UW	15	11	6	2	9	9	0.577	0.500	(0.077)
Minny	ILL	MSU	tOSU	RU	UMD	M	PSU	UW	15	11	6	2	9	9	0.577	0.500	(0.077)

Colums:

• Team:  The team in question.  
• noAway:  The four teams that the team in question does not play on the road.  
• noHome:  The four teams that the team in question does not host.  
• RR-W:  Projected wins for the team in question in a full 26-game double-round-robin.  
• RR-L:  Projected losses for the team in question in a full 26-game double-round-robin.  
• miss-W:  Number of the eight games not played (noAway and noHome) that we project the team in question would win.  
• miss-L:  Number of the eight games not played (noAway and noHome) that we project the team in question would lose.  
• Proj-W:  RR-W minus miss-W
• Proj-L:  RR-L minus miss-L
• RR%:  Projected winning percentage in a full 26-game double-round-robin.  
• Proj%:  Projected winning percentage after eliminating the games not played (noAway and noHome).  
• Diff:  Proj% minus RR%.  

Thus you can see that Nebraska has the most favorable schedule in the league.  We project that they would only go 10-16 in a double-round-robin but they miss seven projected losses and only one projected win so that improves dramatically to 9-9.  

Similarly, Maryland, Michigan, and Minnesota have the least favorable schedules in the league.  We project that they would go 15-11 in a double-round-robin but they miss six wins and only two losses so that degrades dramatically to 9-9.  

Nebraska, Rutgers, Penn State, and Illinois have favorable schedules (ordered from most to least favorable).  

For the teams in the middle (MSU, PU, tOSU, NU), the differences are just rounding issues.  

Minnesota, Michigan, Maryland, Iowa, Indiana, and Wisconsin have unfavorable schedules (ordered from most to least unfavorable).  

[ELA]

My vote would be for moving Indiana up.  A young team, figuring out a new coach.  I think even without the +2 already, they would be a likely candidate to markedly improve as the season progresses, and as a forward looking tool, that's the move that makes more sense to me.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Sorry, couldn't post. I've just now regained consciousness after that Purdue/Michigan game! 

Amazing game by Michigan. Purdue completely threw them off with their defensive strategy in the first half, and Michigan adjusted. Eventually they realized that if Haas is guarding a shooter beyond the arc, he's not going to be able to do anything. He might be 7'2", but he's too slow to guard anyone close, so he has to sag off and you can just shoot over him. And they just started raining it from deep.

Glad the Boilers won, but I wanted to give Michigan credit for a hell of a game. 

Purdue is now #1 [just barely] according to Sagarin...

[betarhoalphadelta]

My vote would be for moving Indiana up.  A young team, figuring out a new coach.  I think even without the +2 already, they would be a likely candidate to markedly improve as the season progresses, and as a forward looking tool, that's the move that makes more sense to me.

Also, you *know* Indiana has talented players. They're year-in-year-out classes are ranked in the top 3-4 of the B1G according to 247. 
If they're going to regress to a mean as they get used to their new coach/scheme and he gets used to learning how to use these players, it's going to be an upward change. Growing pains were to be expected, but we shouldn't necessarily rank them based upon how they looked in November, we should be ranking them how we expect them to look in January/February. 

[medinabuckeye1]

I went with ELA's and bwar's suggestion and IU has been promoted to tier four.  The new tiers are (with +/- for upsets):

• MSU, PU
• tOSU
• M, UMD, PSU -1, MN -1
• UNL +1, UW +1, IU +1, NU -1
• RU, ILL, IA

The upsets so far have been:

Date	Won	@/v	Lost
4-Dec	UW	@	PSU
2-Jan	UNL	@	NU
6-Jan	IU	@	MN

The updated projections are:

Team	noAway	noAway	noAway	noAway	noHome	noHome	noHome	noHome	RR-W	RR-L	miss-W	miss-L	Proj-W	Proj-L	RR%	Proj%	Diff	+Var	-Var	Var	Conf-W	Conf-L	OOC-W	OOC-L	ProjT-W	ProjT-L
MSU	M	UNL	PSU	PU	IOWA	MN	NU	tOSU	24	2	7	1	17	1	0.923	0.944	0.021	0	0	0	17	1	12	1	29	2
Purdue	UNL	NU	tOSU	PSU	ILL	IU	IOWA	MSU	24	2	7	1	17	1	0.923	0.944	0.021	0	0	0	17	1	11	2	28	3
tOSU	MSU	UMD	UNL	ILL	UW	NU	MN	PU	20	6	6	2	14	4	0.769	0.778	0.009	0	0	0	14	4	9	4	23	8
PSU	M	MN	RU	UW	ILL	IU	MSU	PU	14	12	3	5	11	7	0.538	0.611	0.073	0	(1)	(1)	10	8	10	3	20	11
M	ILL	IU	MN	RU	MSU	UNL	PSU	UW	14	12	5	3	9	9	0.538	0.500	(0.038)	0	0	0	9	9	11	2	20	11
UMD	IOWA	MN	RU	UW	ILL	IU	UNL	tOSU	14	12	6	2	8	10	0.538	0.444	(0.094)	0	0	0	8	10	11	2	19	12
Minny	ILL	MSU	tOSU	RU	UMD	M	PSU	UW	14	12	6	2	8	10	0.538	0.444	(0.094)	0	(1)	(1)	7	11	11	2	18	13
UNL	IU	IOWA	UMD	M	MSU	NU	tOSU	PU	10	16	1	7	9	9	0.385	0.500	0.115	1	0	1	10	8	9	4	19	12
UW	IU	M	MN	tOSU	IOWA	UMD	PSU	RU	10	16	4	4	6	12	0.385	0.333	(0.051)	1	0	1	7	11	7	6	14	17
IU	UMD	NU	PSU	PU	M	UNL	RU	UW	10	16	4	4	6	12	0.385	0.333	(0.051)	1	0	1	7	11	7	5	14	16
NU	ILL	MSU	UNL	tOSU	IU	IOWA	PU	RU	10	16	3	5	7	11	0.385	0.389	0.004	0	(1)	(1)	6	12	9	4	15	16
RU	IU	IOWA	NU	UW	UMD	M	MN	PSU	6	20	0	8	6	12	0.231	0.333	0.103	0	0	0	6	12	10	3	16	15
ILL	IOWA	UMD	PSU	PU	M	MN	NU	tOSU	6	20	1	7	5	13	0.231	0.278	0.047	0	0	0	5	13	10	3	15	16
Iowa	MSU	NU	PU	UW	IL	UMD	UNL	RU	6	20	3	5	3	15	0.231	0.167	(0.064)	0	0	0	3	15	9	4	12	19

[medinabuckeye1]

The updated projections would result in the following seeds for the BTT at MSG in NYC:

• 17-1 Michigan State, wins tiebreaker over PU based on H2H, no game in W. Lafayette
• 17-1 Purdue
• 14-4 Ohio State
• 10-8 Penn State, wins tiebreaker over UNL based on record against tOSU
• 10-8 Nebraska
• 9-9 Michigan
• 8-10 Maryland
• 7-11 Wisconsin, wins tiebreaker over MN and IU based on H2H2H, no games in Bloomington or Minneapolis
• 7-11 Indiana, second in tiebreaker with UW and MN, won at Minneapolis
• 7-11 Minnesota
• 6-12 Rutgers, wins tiebreaker with NU based on H2H, no game in Evanston
• 6-12 Northwestern
• 5-13 Illinois
• 3-15 Iowa

The BTT match-ups would be:
Wednesday, February 28:

• #11 Rutgers vs #14 Iowa, 8pm, BTN
• #12 Northwestern vs #13 Illinois, 530pm, BTN

Thursday, March 1:

• #5 Nebraska vs NU/ILL, 230pm, BTN
• #6 Michigan vs RU/IA, 9pm, BTN
• #7 Maryland vs #10 Minnesota, 630pm, BTN
• #8 Wisconsin vs #9 Indiana, noon, BTN

Friday, March 2:

• #1 Michigan State vs UW/IU, noon, BTN
• #2 Purdue vs UMD/MN, 6:30pm, BTN
• #3 Ohio State vs M/RU/IA, 9pm, BTN
• #4 Penn State vs UNL/NU/ILL, 230pm, BTN

Saturday, March 3:

• MSU/UW/IU vs PSU/UNL/NU/ILL, 2pm, CBS
• PU/UMD/MN vs tOSU/M/RU/IA, 430pm, CBS

Sunday, March 4:

• MSU/UW/IU/PSU/UNL/NU/ILL vs PU/UMD/MN/tOSU/M/RU/IA, 430pm, CBS

[847badgerfan]

UW's upset of PSU happened when it had two starting guards. It no longer has that and this should be taken into consideration for the tier they are in. I think they belong in the bottom right now, in all honesty. They are playing walk-ons.

[medinabuckeye1]

UW's upset of PSU happened when it had two starting guards. It no longer has that and this should be taken into consideration for the tier they are in. I think they belong in the bottom right now, in all honesty. They are playing walk-ons.

The front half of UW's schedule is so difficult that it is tough to tell where they should ve.  The losses to Rutgers and Nebraska do not look good, but both of those were road games and close losses.  

[ELA]

It takes a minute with those guys.  MSU early last year with all their injuries looked a lot different than MSU at the end, once the walk ons like Goins and Van Dyk got used to their roles.  Losing three guys, including two starters last year to season ending injuries, then losing Bridges for 5 weeks, also probably made them better this year.  I think last year we were in "just keep the tourney streak alive" mode after the injury bug hit, which they were able to.  Hopefully it pays off this year.

[betarhoalphadelta]

UW's upset of PSU happened when it had two starting guards. It no longer has that and this should be taken into consideration for the tier they are in. I think they belong in the bottom right now, in all honesty. They are playing walk-ons.

Where it gets hard for UW is that essentially whether they're in Tier 4 or Tier 5, they'll still remain at +1 variance based on games played to date. It really doesn't matter either way. Their upset of PSU doesn't change no matter where they move, and all their other B1G games to date would be equal for either tier. 
And going forward they've got @ Purdue, v Illinois, @ Iowa, and @ MSU coming up. Whether they're Tier 4 or Tier 5, they are predicted to lose all of those games except Illinois. But there's no tier they could be in that losing at home to Illinois isn't negative variance, so Tier 4 or Tier 5 doesn't matter there either. 
After that, they've got a home-stand against Nebraska and Northwestern, two games they're expected to win whether you put them in Tier 4 or Tier 5. Then road trips to Maryland and Illinois, where they "should" lose whether Tier 4 or Tier 5. 
The first game where Tier 4 or Tier 5 matters is Feb 11 vs Michigan. As Tier 4, they're expected to beat Michigan at home. As Tier 5, they're expected to lose to Michigan at home.

I would say that for now, we simply leave them where they are. They have a +1 variance which we can discount because of subsequent injuries. If they lose at more than one home vs Illinois, Nebraska, or Northwestern, then we should be talking about dropping them. But given that we don't truly know how good or bad they are, I don't see a point to changing them now.