Thanks Medina.
Since that scenario doesn't require an OSU loss to Michigan, it is the scenario that I will be pulling for.
You are welcome.
Vis-a-vis Michigan's seed:
It would be extremely unlikely for Michigan to move up to the #3 seed. It is mathematically possible but only if:
- Michigan wins out and Michigan State loses out and Nebraska loses at least twice (because Michigan would win a tie with MSU at 13-5), or
- Michigan wins out and Purdue loses out and Nebraska loses at least twice (because Michigan would then be 13-5 and Purdue 12-6.
Even moving up to the #4 seed is not terribly likely. The Wolverines are only one game behind #4 Nebraska but they lost in Lincoln in the only meeting of those teams this year so for seeding purposes they are effectively two games behind Nebraska. Worse, we project Nebraska to win out (@ILL, vsIU, vsPSU) and Michigan cannot overtake them in the seeding order unless they lose at least two games.
Thus, the 5-seed is more-than-likely Michigan's ceiling.
Michigan is currently a game-and-a-half ahead of PSU and two games ahead of IU. They play both teams only once each having already defeated Indiana in Ann Arbor (way back in December) and travelling to Penn State a week from yesterday.
Since Michigan is two games ahead of the Hoosiers AND would win a tie with them, there is almost no chance of Michigan being seeded behind Indiana (M would have to lose out AND IU would have to win out).
Northwestern could theoretically tie the Wolverines and they are 1-1 H2H. The next tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) in the conference, then the next, then the next, etc and if that happened I think that Northwestern would win the tie based on their win over PSU but I'm not sure and it really is irrelevant because for it to happen Northwestern would have to win out AND Michigan would have to lose out.
I think that Michigan's only realistic competitor for the #5 seed is Penn State. The Nittany Lions are a game-and-a-half down but the two teams have yet to play and when they do play it will be on Penn State's court. If Penn State wins that game then they would have the tiebreaker. Then it would depend largely on what happens in Ohio State's next two games (@PSU, @M).