Teams with 1st Loss Week 11:
Oklahoma
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 11:
Coastal Carolina
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
3: Georgia, Cincinnati, UTSA
-We lost our last possible Big 12 undefeated with the Oklahoma loss to Baylor
Teams with 1st loss:
Week 0 and 1: 41.53% (54 of 130)
Week 2: 34.21% (26 of 76)
Week 3: 32% (16 of 50)
Week 4: 23.53% (8 of 34)
Week 5: 34.62% (9 of 26)
Week 6: 23.53% (4 of 17)
Week 7: 15.38% (2 of 13)
Week 8: 18.18% (2 of 11)
Week 9: 33.33% (3 of 9)
Week 10: 33.33% (2 of 6)
Week 11: 25% (1 of 4)
Week 11 Thoughts:
-Oklahoma's loss to Baylor leaves the Big 12 now needing either the Sooners or Oklahoma State to win out for a chance at the CFP. For the Big 12 race, it now appears to be a 3 team race with the two Oklahoma schools both having 1 loss and Baylor having 2. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State play each other in 2 weeks.
-The SEC results this week mean it is highly unlikely we get anything but Georgia vs. Alabama in the championship. Alabama only needs to win one of its last 2 to clinch. Georgia, for its part, won at Tennessee which was definitely its most difficult remaining game of the scheduled season. It will take a truly amazing upset for Georgia to not go to the SEC Championship undefeated. That means that everyone on the edge looking to get in needs to root hard for Georgia in the SEC Championship (to minimize the chance at 2 SEC teams making it).
-The top of the Big Ten stayed firm this week. Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State all won and remain with 1-loss apiece. There are enough games left you could still get a 2-loss champ from the division, but most scenarios have at least one of them winning out before Indianapolis. In the west, Iowa defeated Minnesota and took the Floyd of Rosedale. This leaves them and Wisconsin atop the west alone now and Wisconsin would win that tie breaker if both of them win out.
-Wake Forest beat North Carolina State to keep the ACC's slim playoff hopes alive. Wake Forest ends with 2 rough road games at Clemson and Boston College. They only need to win one of them to make the ACC Championship Game. On the other side of the conference, Miami (FL)'s loss to Florida State leaves the division down to Virginia or Pitt (and they still play each other).
-Oregon won against Washington State which leaves them a win or an Oregon State loss from locking their division. The PAC-12's hopes continue to rest in Oregon and next week might be the toughest game left for the Ducks.
-Cincinnati moved up to #5 last week and won again this week controlling it most the way. I do think they still need help even if do not drop this week. Right now, you have to figure that the SEC Champion, a 1-loss champ from the Big Ten, a 1-loss Oregon, and a 1-loss Georgia (if they lose to Alabama) are ahead of them. I would also guess that a 1-loss Oklahoma or Oklahoma State would jump them, but with less certainty. I would guess a 1-loss Wake Forest will not jump them, but it is not completely outside the realm of possibility (committee has given a lot of credit to 1-loss power 5 conference champs in the past). That said, they looked better again this week and most the pieces are falling into place (just need a couple more).
-Should Cincinnati not end up the Group of 5 representative for the New Year 6, the most likely competition is UTSA (undefeated, which will help them continue to rise), San Diego State (good out of conference wins and Mountain West conference strength pretty decent), and Houston (would beat Cincinnati in American Championship and only has 1-loss). There is room for a few others to move higher on the list, but you need Houston or Cincinnati to lose soon to give them a shot. If you end up with an undefeated or 1-loss Cincinnati vs. 1-loss Houston in the American Championship Game, I don't think there is a way anyone except UTSA or San Diego State will be brought up at this point.
Week 12 Thoughts:
In the CFP era, we have never had a 2-loss team make the CFP and we have never had a team who plays in a Group of 5 conference. We are to the point this year, it will only take a few moves for one of those two to end.
Memphis at 1-loss Houston (Friday): For the competitors outside the American it is best if Houston wins the American and is best if they do it with more than 1-loss. For Cincinnati, they want as big a possible match-up as possible to maximize playoff hopes. Houston will likely enter rankings if keep winning.
1-loss San Diego State @ UNLV: San Diego State 11 point favorites here. If they want to be compared favorably should Houston win the American, it would help to appear a bit more dominant. They had a strong start, but have struggled a bit more in 2nd half of year. If that can end and get some help, they do stand chance at NY6.
1-loss Michigan State at 1-loss Ohio State: Winner controls their destiny in the Big Ten East and almost certainly for the CFP too. Loser would need to hope for a 3 way tie to get back in Big Ten race (although I have not looked back at Big Ten tiebreakers yet). Ohio State winning potentially sets up big season finale with Michigan if both win.
Iowa State @ 1-loss Oklahoma: Oklahoma is not out of the race for the CFP despite the loss. They cannot afford another loss though and now they might need to worry about being a bit more impressive in wins. They now also need to be very concerned with getting to the Big 12 Championship as they will not win a tiebreaker over Baylor who is only 1 game below.
1-loss Wake Forest @ Clemson: Wake Forest still stands a small chance at the CFP if there is a lot of chaos. They lock up the division with a win here. If they lose, they need to win next week or we could still get Clemson in the ACC Championship. Clemson is favored in this game.
Georgia Tech @ 1-loss Notre Dame: The Irish were a Cincinnati win away from being very close to a lock for the CFP. As it is, they are playing for the NY6 (outside of a lot of chaos). Cincinnati meanwhile needs them to continue to win to make the win all the more impressive.
Arkansas @ 1-loss Alabama: The tide only need one more win to go to Atlanta. How they win might matter too. If they lose a close one against Georgia in the SEC Championship and are being compared to an undefeated Cincinnati or other 1-loss teams, they will need to be very impressive in everything else. It likely would take a lot, but there are enough moving pieces going right to at least consider that a possibility.
SMU @ undefeated Cincinnati: This is the best game Cincinnati has left before the American Championship. Beating SMU impressively will say something. Winning at all is most important though. Lose and not only would they be out of the CFP race, but likely would not be hosting American Championship.
1-loss Michigan @ Maryland: Michigan is a fairly big favorite here, but win this and they set-up a very big game vs. Ohio State the following week if both win. Lose this and beat Ohio State though and the Big Ten would be looking at an uphill battle for a playoff spot.
UAB @ undefeated UTSA: Winner of this game controls their destiny for going to the Conference USA Championship Game. UTSA stands chance at a NY6 with some slip ups.
1-loss Oregon at Utah: This is Oregon's hardest remaining game and they are a 3 point underdog. This is a very big game for everyone on the edge of the playoff chase. If Oregon losses, the PAC-12 is likely done, but if they win, they will be favored in the rest of their games. This is also likely the first of 2 games between these two (Utah clinches the south with 1 more win).
1-loss Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech: Win this and Cowboys are setting themselves up for a possibly huge game with Oklahoma to end the regular schedule. To stay in CFP race, they need to win. In the Big 12, they are tied with Oklahoma and have Baylor only 1 game behind with the top 2 going to the Big 12 Championship.
Other games:
Virginia @ Pitt: Pitt locks up the Coastal with a win. Virginia ties it and has tiebreaker if they win and would need to beat Virginia Tech next week to get in.
Nebraska @ Wisconsin: Nebraska has been close with pretty much every good competition it has played this year even if the wins haven't come. Wisconsin controls its destiny in the Big Ten West, but cannot afford a slip up.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 0, American: 1, Big 12: 1, Conference USA: 1, SEC: 1, total: 3
Cincinnati
Georgia
UTSA
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 3, Conference USA: 0, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1. SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 12
Houston
Ohio State
Oregon
Louisiana-Lafayette
Notre Dame
Alabama
Oklahoma State
San Diego State
Michigan
Michigan State
Wake Forest
