header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: The Ukraine Topic

 (Read 107258 times)

Mdot21

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 15735
  • Liked:
Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1484 on: March 24, 2022, 09:12:07 AM »
couple of potentially bad signs....imo. Former US ambassador predicting US will soon double the size of it's troops in Europe (there are already around 100k there) and US has imposed a strict media blackout policy regarding the activities of the US military in Poland.


https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1506529830514352129?s=20&t=CxwGPlJn7ne1319g42hoag



https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1506302882701844487?s=20&t=CxwGPlJn7ne1319g42hoag

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 78300
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1485 on: March 24, 2022, 09:14:49 AM »
Another day with basically no news about this.  I see oil prices heading back up which I take as a sign it's going to last a while longer.  This basic stalemate could last years?

Imagine waking up in 2024 and having the situation being basically as it is today.  Is that possible?


Mdot21

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 15735
  • Liked:
Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1486 on: March 24, 2022, 09:17:18 AM »
Another day with basically no news about this.  I see oil prices heading back up which I take as a sign it's going to last a while longer.  This basic stalemate could last years?

Imagine waking up in 2024 and having the situation being basically as it is today.  Is that possible?
Anything is possible. I sure hope that isn't the case, but US was in Afghanistan for 20 years. Don't see why Russia couldn't be in Ukraine for 2. 

But like Max Abrhams says, the regime charge part is the easy part. The insurgency is the hard part. Russia having trouble with the easy part. Which makes me think they won't be there that long.

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 19992
  • Liked:
Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1487 on: March 24, 2022, 09:20:42 AM »
former CIA director Leon Panetta: "We are engaged in a conflict here. It's a proxy war with Russia, whether we say so or not."
Of course we are.  The moment we starting supplying arms directly to Ukraine it became a proxy war.  

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 78300
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1488 on: March 24, 2022, 09:23:06 AM »
Putin has achieved his main objectives even if no further ground is taken, it seems to me.  The Donbass region is politically split, with Russian troops there now any insurgency would be hard pressed.  Crimea is fait accompli.  He likely wants Mariupol to join the two on the ground.  He could agree to some short and irrelevant withdrawals and simply take over the land they occupied and have minimal insurgent forces present, a la Crimea.  Maybe they negotiate and "end" to active combat at some point, but to a degree Russia has "won", though at considerable cost.

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 19992
  • Liked:
Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1489 on: March 24, 2022, 09:24:08 AM »
Another day with basically no news about this.  I see oil prices heading back up which I take as a sign it's going to last a while longer.  This basic stalemate could last years?

Imagine waking up in 2024 and having the situation being basically as it is today.  Is that possible?



I don't think Russia can withstand two years of these sanctions.  Something like 100,000 employees in Russia already furloughed, and it's only been a few weeks of the sanctions actually being in place.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 78300
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1490 on: March 24, 2022, 09:24:54 AM »
Of course we are.  The moment we starting supplying arms directly to Ukraine it became a proxy war. 
This was routine in the Cold War.  Israel pre1967 had mostly French and British armaments.  They became a proxy in 1967 and shifted mostly to US armaments.  The IAF is not Mirage jets, it's F-15Is and F-16Is and some internally grown aircraft.

Mdot21

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 15735
  • Liked:
Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1491 on: March 24, 2022, 09:25:54 AM »
what really scares me is that US Presidents continually wage war unconstitutionally without the approval of Congress. It's not just Biden- any President in office during this crisis could potentially start World War III if they ordered strikes on Russia in Ukraine or ordered a No Fly Zone. 

Constitution is pretty f**king clear in that it grants Congress the sole power to declare war. Yet US Presidents freely wage war without congressional approval and have done so for decades.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 78300
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1492 on: March 24, 2022, 09:26:52 AM »
I don't think Russia can withstand two years of these sanctions.  Something like 100,000 employees in Russia already furloughed, and it's only been a few weeks of the sanctions actually being in place.
Good point, but I see nothing Russia could do at this point to gain sanctions relief short of replacing Putin, total withdrawal, and reparations.  At some point, sanctions will leak, and China and India will help them out with oil.  I'm not sure Russia exports much beyond hydrocarbons of any use to anyone, some military stuff.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 78300
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1493 on: March 24, 2022, 09:28:16 AM »
what really scares me is that US Presidents continually wage war unconstitutionally without the approval of Congress. It's not just Biden- any President in office during this crisis could potentially start World War III if they ordered strikes on Russia in Ukraine or ordered a No Fly Zone.

Constitution is pretty f**king clear in that it grants Congress the sole power to declare war. Yet US Presidents freely wage war without congressional approval and have done so for decades.
You should read up on the War Powers Act and the authority Congress has granted to the Executive.  (And yes, even that isn't enforced.)

The US has declared war only five times and yet we have conflicts galore.

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 19992
  • Liked:
Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1494 on: March 24, 2022, 09:30:18 AM »
Good point, but I see nothing Russia could do at this point to gain sanctions relief short of replacing Putin, total withdrawal, and reparations.  At some point, sanctions will leak, and China and India will help them out with oil.  I'm not sure Russia exports much beyond hydrocarbons of any use to anyone, some military stuff.

Right, and that's the problem.  Outside of oil and gas, the world economy doesn't need Russia.  There's no reason to lift the sanctions.  China could provide a relief valve for Russian oil, but at prices so deeply discounted that Russia will effectively become a subjugated vassal state to the Chinese.  Which still doesn't help the Russian people, not even a little bit. 

Mdot21

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 15735
  • Liked:
Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1495 on: March 24, 2022, 09:30:54 AM »
Good point, but I see nothing Russia could do at this point to gain sanctions relief short of replacing Putin, total withdrawal, and reparations.  At some point, sanctions will leak, and China and India will help them out with oil.  I'm not sure Russia exports much beyond hydrocarbons of any use to anyone, some military stuff.
they are the 2nd largest exporter of arms behind the US. They also export a ton of grain. But that's pretty much it. 

I don't believe the sanction relief will be tied to replacing Putin. Those sort of demands would give Putin less incentive to end this war, not more. He'll just raise the stakes and dig in deeper. Would love to believe he could be overthrown from within- but how many times are strongman dictators? Almost never.

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 19992
  • Liked:
Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1496 on: March 24, 2022, 09:33:35 AM »
they are the 2nd largest exporter of arms behind the US. They also export a ton of grain. But that's pretty much it.

I don't believe the sanction relief will be tied to replacing Putin. Those sort of demands would give Putin less incentive to end this war, not more. He'll just raise the stakes and dig in deeper. Would love to believe he could be overthrown from within- but how many times are strongman dictators? Almost never.

"Dig in" on what?  His massive losses in Ukraine?  The absolute destruction of his country's economy?  The rest of the developed world doesn't care about these things, but they do care about the slaughter of babies.

Europe sees him as the new Hitler, and they're not going to let Russia off the hook with Putin in power.  The fact that they are escalating is enough proof, they're done with him.  And the US will follow Europe on the sanctions,  because quite frankly it's no skin off our backs, we don't even trade with Russia in any meaningful way.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 78300
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: The Ukraine Topic
« Reply #1497 on: March 24, 2022, 09:39:58 AM »
I have a tough time seeing any end to this, other than a stagnant status quo.  And yes, some negotiations could result in small Russian pullbacks in return for, well, I don't know, but that won't relieve sanctions.  A cease fire would be welcome of course, but that leaves Russia with significant gains.

So what then are the possible futures here?  

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.