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Topic: Wisconsin (5-5, 3-4) at Iowa (6-4, 4-3) Postgame

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Hawkinole

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Wisconsin (5-5, 3-4) at Iowa (6-4, 4-3) Postgame
« on: November 06, 2022, 12:17:35 AM »
The best part of the season starts for Iowa this coming Saturday, as Iowa plays rivals in trophy games three consecutive Saturdays, and interestingly enough each of the three rivals (Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Minnesota) play each other for three consecutive weeks. So -- its rivalry weeks in the BTW.
Everything I could say about Iowa, I think I could say about Wisconsin, as the past two weeks each team has defied expectations. One comparison would be to consider results against common opponents:

Judging from results against common opponents they look evenly matched. Each team has a two-game win streak. Who wants it more? Wisconsin's interim coach wants to be permanent coach. It is a home game for Iowa. Team stats, which probably in this case mean less than results against common opponents, especially since Wisconsin has not played the same quality schedule, i.e. Wisconsin did not play Michigan:

                                          Wisc / Iowa
Points Per Game31.816.4
Points Allowed Per Game21.915.8
Total Yards389.9248.6
Yards Passing218.4155.1
Yards Rushing171.593.5
Yards Allowed342.9265.6
Pass Yards Allowed228.9172.1
Rush Yards Allowed114.093.5

In recent history Iowa has not performed well against Wisconsin. My prediction is Iowa wins by a combination of one touchdown and three field goals over two touchdowns, or two touchdowns and a safety over two touchdowns, i.e. Iowa 16 - Wisconsin 14
« Last Edit: November 13, 2022, 07:08:47 AM by 847badgerfan »
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Mdot21

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Re: Wisconsin (5-4, 3-3) vs. Iowa (5-4, 3-3)
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2022, 12:20:39 AM »
What time is kick off? Kinnick at night much tougher than noon. Graham Mertz at night in that environment might throw picks in bunches and Iowa D feasts on mistakes.
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MarqHusker

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Re: Wisconsin (5-4, 3-3) vs. Iowa (5-4, 3-3)
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2022, 12:37:51 AM »
3:30 est fs1.
have seen one opener,  -1 Iowa, and then a total of 44.5  that can't be.
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Hawkinole

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Re: Wisconsin (5-4, 3-3) vs. Iowa (5-4, 3-3)
« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2022, 01:04:36 AM »
Quote from: MarqHusker on November 06, 2022, 12:37:51 AM
3:30 est fs1.
have seen one opener,  -1 Iowa, and then a total of 44.5  that can't be.
ESPN's matchup predictor (not sure how it works) says 55.7% Wisconsin.

Quote from: MarqHusker on November 06, 2022, 12:37:51 AM

3:30 est fs1.
have seen one opener,  -1 Iowa, and then a total of 44.5  that can't be.
With return to standard time (CST) sometime mid to late 3rd quarter, (5:48 p.m.) the sun will set on the Badgers. 


And on the Hawkeyes.


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847badgerfan

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Re: Wisconsin (5-4, 3-3) at Iowa (5-4, 3-3) Game Week
« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2022, 07:45:55 AM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on November 06, 2022, 12:20:39 AM
What time is kick off? Kinnick at night much tougher than noon. Graham Mertz at night in that environment might throw picks in bunches and Iowa D feasts on mistakes.
You have an obsession with this kid, clearly.

Since Paul Chryst was fired, Graham Mertz has thrown ONE pick. He's being put in a better position to succeed.

Completely different team.


Quote from: Mdot21 on November 03, 2022, 10:32:35 AM

yep. we'll find out in just a couple more days if Maryland is for real or if Wisconsin has really turned it around.

Thoughts?
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Mdot21

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Re: Wisconsin (5-4, 3-3) at Iowa (5-4, 3-3) Game Week
« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2022, 07:56:36 AM »
no obsession with the kid, just calling a spade a spade. he sucks and he's going to be going into the lions den on the road at kinnick vs one of the top 5 defenses in CFB. 

I think the weather sucking helped Wisconsin and took Maryland out of their game. Maryland is a passing team, and when the weather is that bad it makes it really hard to pass. Tua Jr had probably the 2nd or 3rd worst game of his career. Maryland is not the type of team that can win ball games when he stinks. And he stunk. Have to give you credit- you called Wisconsin running it down their throats just like Northwestern did. And that was the real difference in the game. Wisconsin L to Sparty not looking as bad either now that Sparty went and knocked off the #1 seed in the West, Illinois.

I don't think Wisconsin is going to be able to just ram it down the Iowa defense in Kinnick on the ground. Mertz will actually have to make plays in that one. And I don't trust him to do that vs a defense as good as Iowa's in their house. Kinnick is a son of a bitch to play in and Iowa has a nasty defense. 
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MrNubbz

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Re: Wisconsin (5-4, 3-3) at Iowa (5-4, 3-3) Game Week
« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2022, 08:01:53 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2022, 07:45:55 AM
You have an obsession with this kid, clearly.

Since Paul Chryst was fired, Graham Mertz has thrown ONE pick. He's being put in a better position to succeed.

Completely different team.
STOP THAT! Only Mdot can use stats to make a point - it's in the by laws,sheesh.He did make a good point about kinnick,but they can be beat
« Last Edit: November 06, 2022, 08:07:30 AM by MrNubbz »
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847badgerfan

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Re: Wisconsin (5-4, 3-3) at Iowa (5-4, 3-3) Game Week
« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2022, 08:10:11 AM »
I like stats.

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847badgerfan

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Re: Wisconsin (5-4, 3-3) at Iowa (5-4, 3-3) Game Week
« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2022, 08:37:58 AM »
This game is going to be a slugfest. Both teams will be very sore, and hopefully no injuries.

For UW, Braelon Allen is starting to get dinged up. They will need to rely on the backups these next three games. Isaac Guerendo has proven he can bust one loose at any time, but Melusi's status is not known. Behind that is Julius Davis, who I thought was going to be a great one coming out of HS. He's been used rarely. Not sure why.

I see a lot of Jumbo packages coming this week, with Tyler Beach as the extra lineman/TE.

On defense, the UW pass rush is starting to get home. A (finally) healthy secondary helps this.

Can't see either team scoring much here.

Gonna go with something like UW 13, Iowa 8.
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FearlessF

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Re: Wisconsin (5-4, 3-3) at Iowa (5-4, 3-3) Game Week
« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2022, 09:28:41 AM »
a good pass rush will be rough on Iowa and Brian

I'm picking the Badgers, but they can't let Iowa's defense and special teams score
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847badgerfan

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Re: Wisconsin (5-4, 3-3) at Iowa (5-4, 3-3) Game Week
« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2022, 10:02:52 AM »
UW's ST coverage units have noticeably improved lately. It's coaching by committee with those units for now.

Need to get the kicker healthy, although the backup has not been terrible.

Really need the depth on the DL. Piaz and Mullins coming back would be huge.

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Mdot21

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Re: Wisconsin (5-4, 3-3) at Iowa (5-4, 3-3) Game Week
« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2022, 06:20:16 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on November 06, 2022, 09:28:41 AM
a good pass rush will be rough on Iowa and Brian

I'm picking the Badgers, but they can't let Iowa's defense and special teams score
that will be the entire key to the game for Wisconsin. Iowa simply cannot beat you unless you give them help.

Mertz will have to hold onto the ball and not turn it over and Wisconsin can't give up any ST's touchdowns- blocked punts, fg's, punt/kick returns.

Wisconsin just hangs onto the ball and doesn't hurt themselves on ST's - they win. I am not sure if Mertz can do that- to me the game all rests on him just taking care of the football. He protects the ball and they win, I'll shut up about him- and I think they'll win the West.
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Hawkinole

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Re: Wisconsin (5-4, 3-3) at Iowa (5-4, 3-3) Game Week
« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2022, 07:16:58 PM »
Illinois, Ohio State, and Michigan are all in top 6 defenses in FBS. Against them, Iowa's offense was absolutely stymied.
Wisconsin has the #23 defense giving up an average 325.8 YPG.  For comparison Iowa's most recent opponent, Purdue is 39th at 355.3 YPG.
It is reasonable to believe Iowa's offense can move the ball against Wisconsin better than it did against Illinois, Ohio State, and Michigan. It should be a competitive game.
Iowa's defense is ranked 3rd.
Iowa's offense has also been much better the past two games against less effective defenses after they moved Connor Colby from OT to OG, and brought senior Jack Plumb into a starting role at OT. The Iowa O-Line now plays more like a unit, is much more effective in pass protection, and in opening holes in the running game following this change.
Wisconsin and Iowa, as always, play similar style of football. Wisconsin offensively has mostly been more effective at it the past several years.
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SFBadger96

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Re: Wisconsin (5-4, 3-3) at Iowa (5-4, 3-3) Game Week
« Reply #13 on: November 07, 2022, 02:41:22 PM »
This feels like a 13-10 kind of a game, and based on the results to date, that favors the team with the better defense. Especially at home, this should be an Iowa W. But I'm a Badger and don't want that, so I'll say 13-10, Badgers. :-)
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