The latest iteration of major college football's most-played rivalry promises to answer the question: who is the most mediocre of all?
The Badgers are having their worst season since 2001, and limiting it to only then feels like a minor miracle. Surprising no one more than their fans, they have two somewhat quality wins in the last three weeks over Washington and Illinois, both in the friendly-ish confines of Camp Randall. Those wins were built on the back of a tough defense, a few turnovers, and trying out their freshman quarterback who is the closest thing to a dual threat that the Badgers have had in a while. But don't let those wins fool you, this offense is terrible. Even with Carter Smith taking over under center, the Badgers have three touchdown drives of more than 20 yards against FBS opponents this year, excluding garbage time scores. And one of those was a two-play "drive," this last weekend, when Darrion Dupree took off on an 84-yard run up the gut. The Badgers O-line is dinged up, inexperienced, and woeful. They give up sacks at a rate that is hard to imagine, particularly given the Badgers reputation for big uglies up front. Ugly it is.
Minnesota is bowl eligible, but outside of an impressive win against Nebraska (ranked at the time, but mostly because of the helmet they wear), the Gophers have yet to impress anyone. Is losing at Cal as bad as Maryland blowing Wisconsin out at Camp Randall? Probably not, but it's not much better. Unfortunately for the Badgers, Minnesota's offense mostly runs through its quarterback (pass defense is not the Badgers' strength), and against mediocre competition, Drake Lindsey has looked pretty good. So Minnesota has fattened up on closer-than-they-would have liked wins in Minneapolis against conference cellar dwellers Purdue (by 7), Michigan State (by 3 in OT), Rutgers (by 3), and the afore mentioned 24-6 drubbing of Nebraska--then ranked 24, whose best win is beating Northwestern by 7 in Lincoln. Minnesota looked offensively solid this week at Northwestern--though their "ivy" helmets styled for the game at Wrigley field were merely offensive--but still lost late, 38-35.
Minnesota has won 3 of the last 4 in the series, tying it up overall at 63-63-8. Last year, in Madison, the Gophers steamrolled the Badgers, winning going away, 24-7. So what about this year, are there any clues? Against common opponents, both have looked similarly inept. Iowa beat Wisconsin 37-0, then beat Minnesota 41-3. Ohio State beat Minnesota 42-3, then beat Wisconsin 34-0. Oregon beat Wisconsin 21-7, in a game Wisconsin's defense looked genuinely ok in (and had terrible weather helping it along); then beat Minnesota 42-13. Wisconsin's wins over Illinois and Washington are arguably more impressive than Minnesota's win over Nebraska, so advantage Wisconsin, I guess? Neither team has beaten a team that the other has played. (Side note: this conference is too big.) But Maryland destroyed Wisconsin in Madison, whereas Minnesota has beaten each of the bad teams it has played in Minneapolis...where this game will be.
Prediction? On a cold--but not brutally so--day in Minneapolis with maybe a little dusting of snow, I think the Gophers will be able to move the ball through the air, but Wisconsin's D will make them work to put points on the board. Wisconsin will need turnovers to generate many points, but the team appears to have toughened up a little on offense, and may be able to grind out a couple of scoring drives. Maybe I'm just disillusioned, but I think Minnesota keeps the axe and takes the series lead back, 20-13.
SFGopher and I will watch it from sunny, 60-degree Northern California. These games over Thanksgiving weekend aren't convenient for folks who are out of state. Sigh.
