Wisconsin has the defense to stay in this game--7th in the conference in points allowed, but its offense remains a serious work in progress--and that's being generous.
UCLA has beaten the only good team it has played (Oregon), and that includes playing with the backup quarterback for the second half, who threw a key touchdown pass in the away win. Also note, it's not like UCLA's starter was the model Big Ten quarterback, ranking 13th--a spot below Colton Joseph--in efficiency. UCLA gave up a lot of points to Purdue, but it's looking like Purdue might actually be decent--and capable of scoring points in bunches. Even with all of those points allowed in West Lafayette, the Bruins are 8th in the conference in points allowed, adjacent to the Badgers. Yes, Oregon was playing with a backup QB who pitched a terrible game...the week after he smoked USC.
Wisconsin has played one good team, and got curb stomped. As much as Badge dislikes reading this, Notre Dame does appear substantially better than this year's Ducks. The Badgers are on an actual win streak, which feels remarkable, and it has people forgetting where they have been for the last three (arguably more) years, and, frankly, who they have played this year. A big splashy win against Penn State (the only "upset" of this streak), turns out not to look quite as sparkly as it did when it happened. And yes, the Badgers scored a lot of points against a beaten-up Michigan State. The heralded QB transfer is 12th in the conference for QBR, and has a nasty habit of giving the ball away. The Badgers are 10th in the conference in points scored. And that includes beating an FCS team, a Mac team, and two teams tied for last in the Big Ten. UCLA is 4th.
The real concern for Wisconsin should be the turnovers. UCLA leads the conference in takeaways, causing 19, including ten interceptions. The Badgers have six fumble giveaways, and Joseph has thrown five interceptions, including two pick-6s. On the season, Wisconsin is -2 (4th worst in the conference), UCLA is +12.
Wisconsin is traveling to Los Angeles, traditionally a difficult thing for all of the midwestern schools, but has the advantage of a buy week. The problem I have with getting too excited about the buy week is that I don't see an extra week turning the offense into something it's not: a unit that protects the ball. On the bright side, Wisconsin is a more disciplined in penalties: 6th in the conference, vs. UCLA is 18th.
Wisconsin might win this game. If Joseph can protect the ball, the defense plays to its mean, and UCLA hurts itself with penalties, the recipe is there.
The second-string quarterback has really dampened the odds makers' confidence in UCLA, only a 3.5 point favorite at home. I don't buy it. Turnovers doom the Badgers: UCLA 23, Wisconsin 13.
