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Topic: Who would you realistically replace Rutgers with?

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Who would you realistically replace Rutgers with?
« Reply #126 on: September 26, 2018, 02:52:53 PM »
I think USC is definitely above 1/4, probably about 1/3-1/2, but in general I think you're right. They're not >1/2 in my opinion.

Here's a good look: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/03/upshot/ncaa-football-map.html#9,33.588,-117.041
It gives you the top three by zip code. In the bulk of LA County, USC dominates with anywhere between 33-50% of fans, with UCLA in second at around 20% and Oregon in third at just under 10% generally. Get a bit farther south, such as where I live in OC, and USC drops to about 20%, still followed by UCLA and Oregon. But that shows you that the "local" passion dwindles and there must be a lot of transplant support.
Thank you for the map link.  I couldn't get the link in the original NYT story to work.  
Just one semantic point of clarification.  I don't consider USC's 33-50% to be indicative of USC "dominating".  I admit that it is my definition not webster's but to me, dominating is two things:
  • Being the favorite team of more than half of the people in a given zip (51%+)
  • Having no other team within one-third of your own.  

Ie, if you found some zip in Michigan where Michigan had 51% and Michigan State had 49% that wouldn't be "dominated" by Michigan because it is too close.  Similarly in some of those SoCal zips where USC has 30%, UCLA has 8%, and Oregon has 7% I don't consider that to be dominated by USC because they aren't half.  

When I think of "dominated" I think of something like the Omaha Metro Area that the article used as an example where nearly three quarters of CFB fans are fans of one team, Nebraska.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Who would you realistically replace Rutgers with?
« Reply #127 on: September 26, 2018, 05:18:20 PM »
Fair enough... The term "dominates" is debatable.

Just saying that USC has the solid #1 spot, UCLA the solid #2 spot, and then Oregon is probably #3 but ahead of a lot of other teams (Stanford, Cal, Michigan, OSU, Texas, Alabama) nipping at their heals. 

It's certainly not dominating, but I'd say that's the case with any enormous metro area. 

Look at the Chicago suburbs, for example. Illinois and Notre Dame are consistently 1/2, but typically in about almost an even 10%/10% split through most of the burbs, except when you head to the south area where it's more heavily Catholic.

NYC is the same. If you look at it, you don't see a lot of teams >10%.

Then look at Atlanta. UGA isn't getting >35% there. You'd expect them to be higher than that to be called "dominating".

Nebraska? Yeah, UNL is >60% and mostly greater than 70% throughout the state. But then, Nebraska isn't a geographic "magnet" for the surrounding states in the way that Chicago, NYC, or Atlanta is.

Entropy

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Re: Who would you realistically replace Rutgers with?
« Reply #128 on: September 27, 2018, 09:05:32 AM »
https://frankthetank.me/2018/05/18/oh-the-places-youll-go-where-big-ten-graduates-live-and-conference-realignment/

Frank the tank posted some interesting stats on where BIG graduates go....     Basically every big schools sends kids to LA after graduation.   Same with D.C.,  SF and NY.  Kids from all the BIG schools end up in those cities post graduation.   I'd guess other conferences would see something similar.    Some cities have a lot of college fans, but just no dominant market team.  
« Last Edit: September 27, 2018, 09:07:58 AM by Entropy »

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Who would you realistically replace Rutgers with?
« Reply #129 on: September 27, 2018, 09:27:55 AM »
I think that @bwarbiany and @Entropy are right.  Certain cities (NYC, CHI, LA, ATL, SF, DC, etc) are "magnet" cities so they are inherently going to have a mix of fans of pretty much every major CFB team and the home teams will never really "dominate" (when defining dominate as I did above).  

Consequently, none of those media markets can truly be "dominated" by any one team or in some cases even any one conference.  I would imagine that the SEC collectively dominates ATL and that the B1G collectively dominates Chicago.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Who would you realistically replace Rutgers with?
« Reply #130 on: September 27, 2018, 12:24:50 PM »
I think that @bwarbiany and @Entropy are right.  Certain cities (NYC, CHI, LA, ATL, SF, DC, etc) are "magnet" cities so they are inherently going to have a mix of fans of pretty much every major CFB team and the home teams will never really "dominate" (when defining dominate as I did above).  

Consequently, none of those media markets can truly be "dominated" by any one team or in some cases even any one conference.  I would imagine that the SEC collectively dominates ATL and that the B1G collectively dominates Chicago.  
Agreed. Which is almost why it's more interesting to look at the major metropolitan areas as far as "outliers" are concerned...
LA for example is a lot more USC-centric than, say, Chicago or NYC or San Francisco. It's about as USC-centric as Atlanta is UGA-centric. For a small, elite, private school, that's surprising. It's not like Chicago rallied around Northwestern in the same way that LA has rallied around USC. 
What's kinda interesting is that I looked at the SF bay area, as I'd lived there in the past. In San Jose, SJSU is the leader, but in only a few zip codes do they get above 20%. In SF itself, it's the same as Chicago or NYC, with basically no team having a clear >10% lead. But oddly, on the peninsula, Stanford is really popular in a way that surprised me. The zip codes near Palo Alto have a 35% plus Stanford support, some >40%. But even as you get progressively farther away, there are a lot of areas that Stanford is still >20%. 
With all the transplants to the Bay Area, PARTICULARLY the number of highly educated [i.e. college grad] transplants who bring their own rooting interests, I'm surprised that Stanford, as a small elite private school, has that much support. 
That one kinda surprised me. Seattle was a little bit surprising as well, with how much it's grown over the past two decades, and how many transplants they have--again, highly educated transplants drawn in by Boeing, Microsoft, Amazon, and all the tech companies that have sprouted up from those big ones. It's basically dominated [to use your term AND definition, medina] by Washington support. I thought it might be diluted more than it has been. 

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Who would you realistically replace Rutgers with?
« Reply #131 on: September 27, 2018, 12:34:37 PM »
Salt Lake is surprisingly rabid about CFB, considering they only have a mid major and a former mid major to root for. 

Not much else for their sports fans to latch onto, and the rivalry between their two local teams transcends Football, and extends into religion, politics, and everyday life.  
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MrNubbz

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Re: Who would you realistically replace Rutgers with?
« Reply #132 on: September 27, 2018, 12:46:01 PM »
Agreed. Which is almost why it's more interesting to look at the major metropolitan areas as far as "outliers" are concerned...
LA for example is a lot more USC-centric than, say, Chicago or NYC or San Francisco. It's about as USC-centric as Atlanta is UGA-centric. For a small, elite, private school, that's surprising. It's not like Chicago rallied around Northwestern in the same way that LA has rallied around USC.
I'm guessing if NU performed on the gridiron the way the Trojan War machine has for over 100 yrs Chi-Town would have.Of course LA didn't have a pro team until the Rams arrived in 1946 after winning a championship I believe
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Cincydawg

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Re: Who would you realistically replace Rutgers with?
« Reply #133 on: September 27, 2018, 03:27:57 PM »
Is there some viable known mechanism by which the B1G can eject a university?

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Who would you realistically replace Rutgers with?
« Reply #134 on: September 27, 2018, 03:30:56 PM »
I'm guessing if NU performed on the gridiron the way the Trojan War machine has for over 100 yrs Chi-Town would have.Of course LA didn't have a pro team until the Rams arrived in 1946 after winning a championship I believe
I was thinking the same thing.  In deference to the late Marcel/nuwildcat, Northwestern's long-term performance simply pales in comparison to USC's.  If Northwestern had a history like USC's, then I would assume that Chicago would be much more strongly supportive.  

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Who would you realistically replace Rutgers with?
« Reply #135 on: September 27, 2018, 04:02:52 PM »
Is there some viable known mechanism by which the B1G can eject a university?
It is a thread in search of a "realistic" answer to an unrealistic scenario. 
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847badgerfan

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Re: Who would you realistically replace Rutgers with?
« Reply #136 on: September 27, 2018, 04:13:19 PM »
Is there some viable known mechanism by which the B1G can eject a university?
Yes. The conference discussed a Penn State whack a few years ago (Sandusky).
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Cincydawg

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Re: Who would you realistically replace Rutgers with?
« Reply #137 on: September 27, 2018, 05:43:02 PM »
What is said mechanism?

What is required to remove a member?

847badgerfan

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Re: Who would you realistically replace Rutgers with?
« Reply #138 on: September 27, 2018, 06:01:31 PM »
I think it is by unanimous vote of the other 13 members now (at the time of PSU it was 11 members). 



Not easy to do. PSU never got to a vote - only discussion.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Who would you realistically replace Rutgers with?
« Reply #139 on: September 27, 2018, 06:06:51 PM »
Well see, that brings up an interesting point.  Say the Sandusky thing happened at Rutgers.  A school only added for dollars and faux-eyeballs....not a strong addition with a great history....what then?



I'd guess Rutgers would've gotten a harsher initial sentence and would not have been afforded the concessions after the fact.  They would've had no noble coach (O'Brien) to steward them through nasty waters and may very well have been cut loose by the conference.



Or I'm just crazy, right?  Rutgers + Sandusky = ?
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