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Topic: Who would you realistically replace Rutgers with?
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FearlessF · « **Reply #112 on:** September 25, 2018, 12:16:20 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 25, 2018, 11:30:16 AM

Comcast can do the math obviously. If it doesn't pay out for them, they will drop out.

there's plenty of guessing to be done
how many subscribers do they lose to current or rising prices? Customers can be lost for many reasons
How much would this be influenced by $0.40/month?
Can they expect to attract new subscribers if they drop the basic rate $0.50/month?
how many subscribers would they lose if the BTN was not included on basic? probably not many
would many customers would pay more for the premium sports package if BTN was moved there? probably not many
taking all these factors - what does this do to the bottom-line?
Many "experts" have opinions on these guesses, but they are just guessing until the change is made. And then it might take a year or better to assess the impact.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #113 on:** September 25, 2018, 12:23:22 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2018, 12:14:35 PM

I'm having a hard time buying those LA numbers.

To be perfectly honest there are a few things in that article that I have my doubts about but they used an objective method and I've never seen anyone else even try to quantify things like this that we guess about all the time. I'd love to see some alternatives that we could compare to, but I really never have.

rolltidefan · « **Reply #114 on:** September 25, 2018, 12:50:47 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 25, 2018, 12:08:01 PM

It is. This is an old article, but I have never seen an update so it will have to do for now:
To your point and from the link provided: "(O)n a per-capita basis, there are probably about 5 times as many football fans in Birmingham as there are in New York. so although the New York media market is about 10 times larger, it has fewer than twice as many college football fans as Birmingham."
When the article came out NYC was the largest College Football Fan market in the country, but only barely. The top 10:
2.9M out of 20.2M people, NYC
2.6M out of 6.5M people, ATL
2.6M out of 15.3M people, LA
1.9M out of 7.0M people, DAL
1.8M out of 9.4M people, CHI
1.7M out of 2.1M people, Birmingham
1.7M out of 8.1M people, Philly
1.6M out of 5.9M people, HOU
1.4M out of 4.8M people, Tampa-St Pete
1.3M out of 5.1M people, Detroit

According to the article, Rutgers is (or at least was in 2011) the strongest school in the NYC market but they are hardly dominant. Here is the top-10 in the NYC market according to the linked 2011 NYT article:
21% of market, Rutgers
9% of market, Notre Dame
6% of market, Penn State
5% of market, UCONN
5% of market, Michigan
5% of market, Cuse
3% of market, Miami, FL
3% of market, Army
2% of market, Ohio State
2% of market, Boston College

By way of comparison, in the Omaha TV market Nebraska has a 71% share. Note that in the NYC market the top-10 teams do not have 71% combined.

birmingham is a sports crazy market.
they're routinely tops in cfb for most games (excluding the participant teams, meaning for upcoming osu/psu game, bham will be at or near tops of markets not associated with osu/psu, and likely in top 10 overall).
it's also usually at/near top 10 for us national soccer team, and was top 5 in a few wc games, including the opening game.
i've read that it's also among the best non-professional team markets for nfl, mlb and nba as well. but i can't find those articles anymore.

ELA · « **Reply #115 on:** September 25, 2018, 12:51:01 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2018, 12:14:35 PM

I'm having a hard time buying those LA numbers.

I think it makes sense, it's just more glaring because they have two major college football teams, so we see all the empties. The fans are there, comparable to NYC, they just are transplants, or don't want to go to games. If Rutgers played games in a 100,000 seat stadium in NYC, it would make the Rose Bowl for a regular season UCLA game look like a hot ticket. We criticize LA college fans for not going to games, and they don't, but it doesn't mean the fans aren't there, they just, probably much like NYC, aren't fans of UCLA/USC necessarily.

Entropy · « **Reply #116 on:** September 25, 2018, 01:39:31 PM »

better question might be has any of the last 4 expansion teams been worth it....

847badgerfan · « **Reply #117 on:** September 25, 2018, 02:44:41 PM »

Quote from: Entropy on September 25, 2018, 01:39:31 PM

better question might be has any of the last 4 expansion teams been worth it....

You're talking about PSU, UNL, UMD and Rutgers to the B1G?

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #118 on:** September 25, 2018, 03:51:03 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 25, 2018, 12:14:35 PM

I'm having a hard time buying those LA numbers.

I'm not. Not at all.
First and foremost, USC is a huge brand here. Much like a Notre Dame, even though locals didn't get in and can't afford to attend, they're USC fans. And there are a LOT of those fans here. Far bigger than UCLA too.
You also have to remember that although LA is a bit more of a "pro" sports team town like NY, they've been without a pro football team for a while. And everyone hates the Chargers, so right now it's really only the Rams that are getting any local love. So for a long time, and in the Reggie Bush days it was more true than not, USC was Los Angeles' professional football team.
And as others pointed out, there are tons of transplants here. Even lowly Purdue has 2 bars that host game watch parties for the alumni club in LA County, one in OC, and one in San Diego County.
So that doesn't really surprise me that you could come up with 2.6M college football fans here.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #119 on:** September 25, 2018, 03:51:54 PM »

Quote from: rolltidefan on September 25, 2018, 12:50:47 PM

birmingham is a sports crazy market.

So you're saying UAB is the next member of the B1G?

847badgerfan · « **Reply #120 on:** September 25, 2018, 04:09:53 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on September 25, 2018, 03:51:03 PM

I'm not. Not at all.
First and foremost, USC is a huge brand here. Much like a Notre Dame, even though locals didn't get in and can't afford to attend, they're USC fans. And there are a LOT of those fans here. Far bigger than UCLA too.
You also have to remember that although LA is a bit more of a "pro" sports team town like NY, they've been without a pro football team for a while. And everyone hates the Chargers, so right now it's really only the Rams that are getting any local love. So for a long time, and in the Reggie Bush days it was more true than not, USC was Los Angeles' professional football team.
And as others pointed out, there are tons of transplants here. Even lowly Purdue has 2 bars that host game watch parties for the alumni club in LA County, one in OC, and one in San Diego County.
So that doesn't really surprise me that you could come up with 2.6M college football fans here.

OK, I see the point. I guess I also didn't consider the huge numbers of B1G alumni out there. Hell, that brew pub on Balboa probably had 250 UW alumni for the bowl game I watched there.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #121 on:** September 25, 2018, 04:17:22 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on September 25, 2018, 03:51:03 PM

I'm not. Not at all.
First and foremost, USC is a huge brand here. Much like a Notre Dame, even though locals didn't get in and can't afford to attend, they're USC fans. And there are a LOT of those fans here. Far bigger than UCLA too.
You also have to remember that although LA is a bit more of a "pro" sports team town like NY, they've been without a pro football team for a while. And everyone hates the Chargers, so right now it's really only the Rams that are getting any local love. So for a long time, and in the Reggie Bush days it was more true than not, USC was Los Angeles' professional football team.
And as others pointed out, there are tons of transplants here. Even lowly Purdue has 2 bars that host game watch parties for the alumni club in LA County, one in OC, and one in San Diego County.
So that doesn't really surprise me that you could come up with 2.6M college football fans here.

Not disagreeing with you, just adding to what you said:
My guess is that with all the transplants no team really dominates the LA market. Instead of being like Omaha where nearly three-quarters of the fans are fans of one team (Nebraska), my guess is that LA is more like NYC where the leading team has somewhere around one-quarter (maybe a tad higher in LA mostly just because USC is generally better than RU).

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #122 on:** September 25, 2018, 04:37:05 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 25, 2018, 04:17:22 PM

My guess is that with all the transplants no team really dominates the LA market. Instead of being like Omaha where nearly three-quarters of the fans are fans of one team (Nebraska), my guess is that LA is more like NYC where the leading team has somewhere around one-quarter (maybe a tad higher in LA mostly just because USC is generally better than RU).

I think USC is definitely above 1/4, probably about 1/3-1/2, but in general I think you're right. They're not >1/2 in my opinion.
Here's a good look: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/03/upshot/ncaa-football-map.html#9,33.588,-117.041
It gives you the top three by zip code. In the bulk of LA County, USC dominates with anywhere between 33-50% of fans, with UCLA in second at around 20% and Oregon in third at just under 10% generally. Get a bit farther south, such as where I live in OC, and USC drops to about 20%, still followed by UCLA and Oregon. But that shows you that the "local" passion dwindles and there must be a lot of transplant support.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #123 on:** September 25, 2018, 06:08:29 PM »

Out west, it's just different.
The Phoenix area probably has 10x the people of Gainesville, FL, but I doubt there are more actual college football fans here than there. There's plenty of ASU bumper stickers, but that's just taking a side between UofA/ASU. They're not actually fans of college football. They couldn't name ASU's quarterback...and they have a damn sticker on their car.

In Gville, you've got a UF flag in every other front yard, everyone goes to games, and it's just automatic. ASU and UF both have massive undergrad student populations, but those are just drunk kids going with the flow - looking more forward to the party after the game than the game itself. That's at all schools, imo.

We, here, are football nerds. Actual fans. We make college football a priority in our lives and designate X% of our attention to it. That % is far higher than the bumper sticker brigades of Phoenix or LA or wherever.

College football fandom lives and breathes between central Texas and eastern PA. The rest of the country treats it like it's the Kardashians or America's Got Talent or the Oscars. Something to dip their toe in to have something to talk about in case the subject comes up in social situations.

MarqHusker · « **Reply #124 on:** September 25, 2018, 07:28:03 PM »

Good take OAM. I've lived in that belt and then again in the NFL rust belt. Cliffs notes college football fans. Novelty.

Entropy · « **Reply #125 on:** September 26, 2018, 09:19:46 AM »

Phoenix is a retirement town. I bet there are more CF fans than you think, just not fans of the local team.

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Topic: Who would you realistically replace Rutgers with?

FearlessF

Re: Who would you realistically replace Rutgers with?

medinabuckeye1

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rolltidefan

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ELA

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Entropy

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847badgerfan

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betarhoalphadelta

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betarhoalphadelta

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847badgerfan

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medinabuckeye1

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betarhoalphadelta

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OrangeAfroMan

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MarqHusker

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Entropy

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