Yup, Texas and Michigan positioned outside the "danger zone" of potentially being included.
Next up, we'll see whether or not they stick to the "CCG losers won't be punished" statements they've put forth in the past. If Alabama loses they'll have a 3rd loss and the loss to FSU is even uglier than Texas' loss to Florida.
The B12 CCG is interesting too because whoever loses will be taking a second loss and then could start getting compared on SOS and SOR to all the other 2-loss teams.
I don't usually watch Cowherd but a YouTube suggestion popped up last night of him talking to Urban Meyer. They were talking about Texas getting punished for playing a challenging game and Urban said almost exactly what we've been saying in this thread. His example was Old Dominion instead of Georgia Southern or Incarnate Word but he said that Old Dominion was going to get really popular as a team to schedule and suggested that Ohio State and Texas might even cancel their game next year. I don't know if it will be that fast but I do anticipate a general shift as it sinks in for AD's and coaches that the committee may claim that they value SoS but not enough to make it worthwhile.
It is effectively only a tiebreaker. Texas is 9-3 and ranked #13 which IS the highest for any 3-loss team but the only 2-loss teams they are ahead of are:
- #14, 10-2 Vandy, #22 SoS per espn
- #15, 10-2 Utah, #57
- #17, 10-2 Virginia, #82
- #20, 10-2 Tulane, #78
- #24, North Texas, #125
- #25, James Madison, #118
For comparison, according to espn, Texas has the #8 SoS which is easily the highest among contenders as the seven teams that espn says had tougher schedules are:
- 4-8 Wisconsin
- 4-8 Florida
- 2-10 Purdue
- 3-9 UCLA
- 2-10 Arkansas
- 7-5 LSU
- 4-8 USCe
Florida has the win over Texas, of course, but that is their ONLY quality win. They lost to all of the other teams that made their schedule so tough plus they also lost BADLY to Kentucky.
LSU is the only team to have achieved bowl eligibility with a schedule tougher than Texas' but, they lost to all of the teams that made their schedule so tough. They opened with a win over Clemson which seemed great at the time but Clemson finished as a .500 team in the ACC so meh. All the rest of their wins were over crappy OOC opponents (LaTech, SELA, WKY) and sub .500 SEC teams (UF, USCe, Ark).
Texas is a completely different situation. They played a tough schedule and actually beat a majority of even the very good teams. Here is Texas' record against the current CFP top-25:
- #1 Ohio State, lost 14-7 on the road
- #3 Georgia, lost 35-10 on the road
- #7 aTm, won 27-17 at home
- #8 Oklahoma, won 23-6 neutral site
- #14 Vanderbilt, won 34-31 at home
The committee is setting a very bad precedent here.
To give the other side, the Florida loss is bad and the committee talks about game control a lot so close calls with bad Kentucky and MissSt teams are also troubling but the problem is that if Texas was 10-2 with a home win over GASO/ODU/Incarnate Word instead of 9-3 with a road loss to #1 Ohio State, the Longhorns would be in and those issues would only impact seeding.