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Topic: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #196 on: December 01, 2025, 10:55:45 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 01, 2025, 05:02:56 PM
Nah. Anyone below the top 32 CFB programs are basically irrelevant. And why dilute the product more than you need to?
Quote from: FearlessF on December 01, 2025, 05:15:10 PM
as Afro knows - gotta have a few doormats to take perennial beatings so the blue bloods look better
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on December 01, 2025, 05:29:30 PM
Wow... What fragile snowflakes their fans must be.






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MrNubbz

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #197 on: December 02, 2025, 12:25:58 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on December 01, 2025, 07:06:04 PM
The risk/reward ratio just isn't there.  Too much risk, too little chance of reward.  It's not binary, there are a range of outcomes possible.  But I believe the negative or neutral outcomes have a >50% chance of being realized, which is all I need to see, to make a decision.
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bayareabadger

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #198 on: December 02, 2025, 01:48:10 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on December 01, 2025, 01:19:35 PM
Oh he's definitely politicking.

But the reality is, in the current 12-team CFP landscape, it's the right thing to do, anyway.

That hasn't always been the case, actually.  It wasn't the right thing in the 4-team playoff because the risk/reward ratio was different.  In 2023 Texas playing, and beating, Alabama in the OOC schedule, is what put Texas into the playoffs.

But in a 12-team playoff the risk/reward calculation is very different.  Pure W/L column appears to rule the day.

In some future 16-team playoff (or larger), those calculations probably change again.

But for now, scheduling a loss is a losing proposition.
This strikes me not as a difference of system, but a difference of circumstance.

An extra loss mattered more then, not less. But that was a specific situation, and they’re always fine to schedule if you win.

Like, the Alabama win mattered specifically because Alabama happened to be the team at the edge and it created a real weird space because the committee really didn’t want to leave out its special SEC boys and y’all had a leverage point in them. But if you change a few things, say FSU is healthy but has one loss and Alabama wins that game, well then it’s 10-2 Texas vs 11-1 FSU, Horns are likely out and we’d be talking about how they should’ve scheduled Incarnate Word instead. 

Shoot, if UGA just handled business in Atlanta, 12-1 Texas might not edge 13-0 FSU (alas, y’all were not yet special SEC boys).
« Last Edit: December 02, 2025, 02:00:43 AM by bayareabadger »
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bayareabadger

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #199 on: December 02, 2025, 01:51:56 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on December 01, 2025, 03:42:29 PM
Yeah here's hoping! ;)

Not really tough.  Ole Miss would have earned that spot.  And who's to say that their new coach can't coach them to win in the playoffs?  That would be a heck of an assumption.

One thing I didn't mention is that for FSU, the committee got to see them play poorly and barely win against a not-great team in the ACC CCG without that QB, and that was used as evidence against the Noles.  In this case, there's no evidence against Ole Miss as a Kiffinless team, so even less reasoning to keep them out.
Leaving them out was still pretty stupid, but it was a great way to get an expanded playoff. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #200 on: December 02, 2025, 08:56:28 AM »
I remain curious as to the impact on future scheduling.  I know seeing the SEC going to 9 conference games and a required one more P4 will have an impact obviously.  Do you think UGA is going to schedule 12 P4 opponents in 2030 or back off that?  Heck, in 2027, they have Laville, FSU, and GaTech scheduled, plus 9 conference games, zero pastries.

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FearlessF

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #201 on: December 02, 2025, 09:28:33 AM »
I'd guess some of those will be canceled, unfortunately
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utee94

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #202 on: December 02, 2025, 09:38:41 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 02, 2025, 08:56:28 AM
I remain curious as to the impact on future scheduling.  I know seeing the SEC going to 9 conference games and a required one more P4 will have an impact obviously.  Do you think UGA is going to schedule 12 P4 opponents in 2030 or back off that?  Heck, in 2027, they have Laville, FSU, and GaTech scheduled, plus 9 conference games, zero pastries.


Man it could be tough for Georgia fans.  It seems possible, and even likely, that y'all will just end up playing GaTech every year as your marquee OOC game.  And I know you personally don't value that game very much.
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Gigem

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #203 on: December 02, 2025, 10:15:41 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on December 02, 2025, 09:38:41 AM
Man it could be tough for Georgia fans.  It seems possible, and even likely, that y'all will just end up playing GaTech every year as your marquee OOC game.  And I know you personally don't value that game very much.
Yeah, I'm sure there was a time when GT and Georgia were really competitive with each other in football, but simply put these programs are each heading in different directions despite GT being somewhat good the last several years.  Nobody truly expects them to compete for much in the near future, and I've heard that the fan support is dwindling as the school itself becomes more elite and less blue-collar.  Not sure how to phrase that truly, but I've heard there is a lot of Asians and other cultures that don't value sports that are becoming the majority.  

Georgia already dominated the stats in the W/L column, but unlike the UT/A&M games it's been mostly lopsided since the 80's, whereas the A&M and UT game has been almost, but not quite 50/50 since the mid-70's. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #204 on: December 02, 2025, 10:21:25 AM »
Yeah, we're stuck with Tech.  I'd much rather play a variety of OOC opponents and drop Tech is that was necessary.  But it won't happen.  So, now with 9 conference games and Tech, will UGA stay with one more P4 OOC opponent, or even 2 more, as scheduled?    Probably not two, and I can hope to keep one.

The series with Notre Dame was really exciting before and during.  Ticket prices were through the roof.  That kind of excitement is good.

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FearlessF

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #205 on: December 02, 2025, 10:33:57 AM »
Kirby isn't bitching publicly yet.

Smart 
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Cincydawg

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #206 on: December 02, 2025, 10:38:02 AM »
He's not going to, at this point.  He claims he likes challenges.  He claimed he wanted to play in the CG.  That is contrary to wishing he didn't have to play an elite opponent that might drop his standing in the CFP.  Now, what he SAYS and really thinks, well...

I'd rather play Oregon or Notre Dame or Ohio State OOC than Tech.    I'd rather play either than Charleston S.  If a loss drops UGA out of the CFP, OK with me.
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FearlessF

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #207 on: December 02, 2025, 10:42:15 AM »
if you're a team with 3 losses - it's tough to think you could pull off a run like Ohio St did last season in the playoff
but, stranger things have happened

and it's more about getting another game in the playoff win or lose for the $$$
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Cincydawg

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #208 on: December 02, 2025, 10:45:17 AM »
The playoff, to me, is mostly a crap shoot.  Yeah #5 is a heavy favorite over #12.  But when it comes to #1 vs #8, you have two quite good teams.  The odds the better team wins is probably 2 in 3.

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FearlessF

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #209 on: December 02, 2025, 10:47:39 AM »
yup, gotta have a little luck to run off 3 in a row vs top 5-10 competition

Osborne said ya had to have a little luck to win a title back in the 70s, 80s, & 90s
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